XAU/USD 04 September 2024 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 August 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS.
After an iBOS (Internal Break of Structure) we expect a bearish pullback.
Price has printed bearish CHoCH which indicates, but not confirms bearish pullback phase initiation
Intraday expectation: Whilst price did continue bearish as part of bearish pullback phase, I am concerned that price has not, as yet, pulled back deep enough into either H4 demand zone or discount of 50% EQ, therefore, it is my view that price will seek further liquidity before a sustained bullish move to target weak internal high.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
Intraday expectation, analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 03 September 2024.
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bearish.
Price is stuck within an internal range and is most probably awaiting a catalyst (macroeconomic or geopolitical)
Technically price should target weak internal low and is currently reacting at premium of internal 50% EQ, however, price has ben printing low volume bars with no clear internal range direction.
Intraday expectation: Price is in premium of internal 50% EQ with strong high remaining protected. Price to target weak internal low. My bias will remain unchanged until and unless M15 candle close above strong internal high.
M15 Chart:
Dollargold
The 4th Dimension Trading i) 2D = Time / Price = Chart = Technical analysis
ii) 2D = Macro or / and Micro or / and other analysis
3D = Combining the above (i) & (ii)
4D = Projected time and price based on the past data and market developments
3 types of gold for trading:
• COMEX Gold
0.10 per troy ounce = $10.00
• E-mini Gold
0.25 per troy ounce = $12.50
• Micro Gold
0.10 per troy ounce = $1.00
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
When the Dollar fall each time, Gold increases a few foldsMany got distracted when Gold was trading in a range the last few years.
A question for you to ponder over:
Will there be a situation where interest rates continue to rise and yet a lower Dollar? Why?
Let me hear thoughts, I would love to exchange ideas with you.
Included last two videos link below, I explained:
i) Gold is still an inflation hedge
ii) Gold it is also a currency hedge
CME Micro Gold Futures
Minimum fluctuation
0.1 = $1
1 = $10
10 = $100
100 = $1,000
Disclaimer:
• What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker.
• Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Gold Beats Fiat Currencies Over Past MonthsGold has been performing quite well over the past months at the same time that equity markets have been increasing. How is this possible? Gold is a risk off asset and shouldn't increase if risk on equities increase. The answer lay in the fact that gold is merely appreciated against all currencies as can be seen by the trade weighted dollar, yen, euro, and pound which over the past few months have all underperformed to XAUUSD. Sure, part of this is dollar strength, but undeniably it also lay in the fact that gold is still a good alternative to fiat currencies. At least, thats been the case over the past few months.
If gold decides to take a leg lower, we have a strong support level below at a range between 1277 and 1238. The two technical indicators, bull/bear sentiment index and the CCI are suggesting we are approaching relatively expensive levels at the moment and that gold long could be a bit of an overcrowded trade.
However, I can also imagine it takes a leg higher since equity markets have suffered incredible volatility over the past few days with Asian equities getting trounced on Monday with only minor recovery except in China where the selloff continues. I'm not a huge fan of gold as a long-term investment alternative to equities beyond its safe haven nature, but its definitely seen elevated levels since monetary easing in 2008 which could greatly increase in the event of another financial crisis (look up credit loans swaps for a convincing argument of corporate bank derivative overexposure).
If you want more charts and analysis, check out www.anthonylaurence.com