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Fundamental Market Analysis for November 1, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) retreated from its recent gains following the release of the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) from Jibun Bank and S&P Global on Friday. However, the USD/JPY pair declined as the yen strengthened following comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda on Thursday that increased the likelihood of a rate hike in December. Jibun Bank's headline PMI for Japan's manufacturing sector came in at 49.2 in October, down from 49.7 in September. This composite single-digit reading indicates that Japan's manufacturing output continued to contract at the start of the fourth quarter of 2024, with the pace of decline in output and new order inflows more pronounced. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said on Friday that he expects the Bank of Japan to work closely with the government to implement appropriate monetary policy to achieve the price target in a sustainable and stable manner. Traders await the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The U.S. economy is expected to add 113,000 jobs in October, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 29, 2024 USDJPYThe Dollar-Yen pair is losing ground to the 152.950 level during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The pair is declining as the U.S. dollar (USD) retreats from the nearly three-month high reached in the previous session. However, the pair's decline may be limited amid uncertainty surrounding the composition of the next government and the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) rate hike plan. The loss of Japan's ruling coalition in the elections increases political and monetary policy uncertainty and could put pressure on the Japanese yen (JPY). “The ruling LDP and its coalition partner lost their majority in the lower house of parliament, raising concerns about the shape and direction of the next government's policies. Markets have also slightly reduced expectations of Bank of Japan policy tightening (which has helped local equities),” said Scotiabank chief currency strategist Sean Osborne. The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will take center stage on Thursday. Nearly 86% of economists polled by Reuters expect Japan's central bank to leave rates unchanged at its October meeting on Thursday. On Tuesday, Japan's Statistics Bureau released data that the country's unemployment rate fell to 2.4% in September, down from the previous reading and the market consensus forecast of 2.5% Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
USDJPY - 4H Sell SetupFX:USDJPY is displaying a clear technical setup for a bearish move. After a significant pullback following a sharp fall, the pair failed to surpass the resistance zone around 149. This area has proven strong as the price action was unable to hold above it, trapping liquidity just above the resistance. The price then rejected this zone with a sharp reversal. Additionally, the second attempt to break through the resistance further confirms the weakness, as liquidity hunting above the resistance has been met with selling pressure. This rejection, combined with the failed breakout, suggests the pair is likely to fall towards the lower targeted support zone, potentially setting up a strong shorting opportunity in the near term. This aligns with fundamental factors, including expectations of slower rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, Japan faces a cautious stance on raising interest rates, which has kept the yen under pressure. However, recent economic data from Japan, such as rising producer prices and decreased lending activity, suggests a shift may be underway, supporting further yen strength and a potential fall in USDJPY. Traders should watch for a continuation of this move, as the failed attempts to breach resistance and the liquidity grab signal further downside pressure.
Short
by Sober_Trading
2
Fundamental Market Analysis for October 14, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is unable to capitalize on a modest rise in the Asian session or find support above 149.000 and is pulling back a few pips from the highest level since August 16 reached on Monday. Prices are dipping below 148.500, or a fresh daily low in the last hour, and for the moment appear to have broken the dollar's three-day winning streak, although the fundamental backdrop warrants caution from bearish traders. Japan's Deputy Finance Minister for International Affairs Atsushi Mimura said that the government will keep an eye on currency movements, including speculative moves, fueling speculation of possible intervention. This, in turn, provides some support for the Japanese Yen (JPY) and attracts sellers to the USD/JPY pair. Meanwhile, the decreasing chances of another interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in 2024 and a more aggressive easing policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) should continue to serve as a tailwind for the currency pair. Japan's new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba stunned markets last week by stating that the economy is not ready for further rate hikes. In addition, political uncertainty ahead of the October 27 general election may keep JPY bulls on the sidelines. Meanwhile, good US jobs data for the month released on Friday led investors to further reduce bets on a massive Fed rate cut in November. This helped the US Dollar (USD) maintain its recent strong rise to a seven-week high and should serve as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair. This in turn suggests that any subsequent decline could still be seen as a buying opportunity, so it is prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the uptrend from a week ago has exhausted itself. As for further developments, there are no major economic data releases on Monday that could influence the market. Nevertheless, speeches by influential FOMC members may have an impact on the USD later in the North American session. In addition, geopolitical events should give a short-term impetus to the USD/JPY pair. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 26, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) remains depreciated against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of the minutes from the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) July policy meeting on Thursday. The yen faces challenges as traders expect the BoJ to ponder before further rate hikes. The minutes of the BoJ's monetary policy meeting expressed a general view among members on the importance of remaining vigilant on the risks of inflation exceeding targets. Several members indicated that raising rates to 0.25 percent would be an appropriate way to adjust the level of monetary support. Some others suggested that a moderate adjustment in monetary support would also be appropriate. Pressure on the U.S. dollar is being exerted by the increased likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) at upcoming meetings. According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets estimate the probability that the Fed will cut rates by 75 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25% by the end of this year at around 50%. Traders' attention is now focused on the release of final annualized U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) data for the second quarter (Q2), due later in the day. On Friday, inflation data will be released in Tokyo, which could provide further insight into the economic outlook and possible monetary policy moves by the Bank of Japan. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 13, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair weakened further below the mid 141.000s during the Asian session on Friday and is now back closer to the YTD low reached earlier this week. Moreover, the fundamental backdrop seems to be leaning in favor of bearish traders and supports the prospects of a continuation of the established downtrend seen over the past two months. The US Dollar (USD) fell to a fresh weekly low amid rising bets for more aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) policy easing next week, bolstered by the release of a softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) on Wednesday. In fact, markets are now pricing in a more than 40% probability that the US central bank will cut borrowing costs by 50 basis points at the end of its September meeting. This keeps US Treasury yields near 2024 lows, which puts pressure on the dollar and leads to a decline in the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, continues to receive support from hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) indicating that it will raise interest rates further if the economic outlook matches forecasts. Moreover, BoJ board member Naoki Tamura said on Thursday that the road to ending soft policy is still very long. This represents a significant divergence from dovish Fed expectations, which in turn encourages further pullback in Japanese Yen (JPY) and contributes to the tone of the USD/JPY pair. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop indicates that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the downside, although traders may prefer to move sideways ahead of a key central bank event that could occur next week. The Fed is due to announce its decision at the end of its two-day meeting next Wednesday. This will be followed by the BOJ's policy update on Friday, which will determine the next leg of directional movement for the USD/JPY pair. Nevertheless, the pair remains on track to end the second week in the negative. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for September 10, 2024 USDJPYThe USD/JPY pair is turning positive for the second consecutive day after declining early in the Asian session to the 142.850 area, although it lacks bullish confidence. Spot prices are currently trading with a slight positive bias just below the mid-143.000s and remain within striking distance of the one-month low reached last Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to be threatened by data released on Monday that showed the economy grew slightly slower in the second quarter than originally reported. This could complicate the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) plan to raise interest rates further in the coming months. In addition, the overall positive sentiment in equity markets is reducing demand for the safe-haven Yen and serving as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair amid some buying interest from the US Dollar (USD). Investors may also prefer to stand back and wait for the release of US consumer inflation data on Wednesday before making new directional bets. Thus, strong follow-through buying is needed to confirm that the USD/JPY pair has formed a short-term bottom and is positioned for significant gains amid the lack of meaningful macroeconomic data from the US on Tuesday. That said, speeches by influential FOMC members may provide some impetus later in the US session. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 143.000, if consolidated below consider Sell position, if rebounding positions on Buy.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 13, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against the US dollar (USD) on Tuesday. Safe-haven currency flows may limit the yen's decline, which could be linked to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. A special session of the Japanese parliament is scheduled for August 23 to discuss the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to raise interest rates last month. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to be invited to the session, organized by the lower house's financial affairs committee, government sources reported citing Reuters. The USD/JPY pair is gaining support amid easing pressure on the U.S. dollar due to lower expectations of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50 basis point (bps) rate cut in September fell to 50% from 85% last week. Nevertheless, the betting markets continue to rate the probability of a rate cut at the upcoming meeting at least 25 bps at 100%. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for August 7, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to lose ground against the US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day. This decline can be attributed to comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida on Wednesday: "We will not raise rates when markets are unstable," according to Reuters. Deputy Governor Uchida also noted that the BoJ's interest rate strategy will adapt if market volatility changes economic forecasts, risk assessments or projections. Given recent market volatility, he emphasized the need to carefully monitor the economic and price effects of its policy, stating, "We should maintain the current degree of monetary policy easing for the time being." The upside potential for the USD/JPY pair may be limited as the U.S. dollar faces challenges and markets expect a more significant rate cut in September. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September is 67.5%, up from 13.2% a week earlier. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 25, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) continues its uptrend against the US dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive session, staying near the 12-week high of 152.640 set on Thursday. The yen's strengthening is likely due to traders unwinding asset trades ahead of next week's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting. The BoJ is expected to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting next week, which will force short sellers to cover their positions and strengthen the yen. In addition, the BOJ is expected to outline plans to reduce its bond purchases to scale back its massive monetary stimulus. On Wednesday, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki and chief currency diplomat Masato Kanda avoided commenting on currency issues, causing the USD/JPY pair to fall to its lowest level in two months, according to Reuters. The U.S. dollar may strengthen as the latest U.S. PMI data showed an acceleration in private sector activity growth in July, underscoring the resilience of U.S. growth despite higher interest rates. The data gives the Federal Reserve (Fed) more leeway to maintain restrictive policy if inflation shows no signs of easing. Investors are expected to keep a close eye on U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) annualized (Q2) data on Thursday and personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation on Friday. These reports are expected to provide new insights into the US economic situation. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 24, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to rise for the third consecutive session on Wednesday, likely due to the return of risk-off-oriented flows. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to raise interest rates at next week's policy meeting, prompting short sellers to exit their positions and lending support to the Japanese Yen. A senior ruling party official, Toshimitsu Motegi, called on the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to more clearly outline its plan to normalize monetary policy by gradually raising interest rates, according to Reuters. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida added that normalizing the central bank's monetary policy will facilitate Japan's transition to a growth-oriented economy. The U.S. dollar (USD) is facing challenges due to rising expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September, putting pressure on the USD/JPY pair. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is 93.6%, up from 88.5% a day earlier. Traders await the release of U.S. purchasing managers' index (PMI) data on Wednesday and annualized gross domestic product (GDP) (Q2) on Thursday. The data is expected to provide new insights into the US economic situation. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for July 22, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) remains weak on Monday, extending its losing streak to a third straight session. Traders are preparing for next week's Bank of Japan (BoJ) meeting, which may consider an interest rate hike to support the yen. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said normalizing the central bank's monetary policy will help Japan's transition to a growth-oriented economy, according to Nikkei Asia. Speculative short yen positions, which had risen to their second-highest level, began to shrink after Japan's anticipated yen buying intervention this month surprised the market. According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, yen short positions held by market participants such as hedge funds totaled 151,072 contracts as of Tuesday. This represents a decline of 30,961 contracts from the previous week and is the biggest decline since May 7, when short positions declined by 33,466 contracts, according to another report from Nikkei Asia. The USD/JPY pair may limit its gains as the U.S. dollar (USD) faces challenges from rising bets on a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in September and lingering concerns about the volatility of the U.S. labor market. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is 91.7%, up from 90.3% a week earlier. Trading Recommendation: Watch the level of 157.500, and on the rebound we take Sell positions.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Dollar Winning Streak Extends Into Fifth Week! Time to Go LongI wanted to share some exciting news from the forex world: the dollar has extended its winning streak into the fifth week! 🎉 A key gauge of the dollar's strength continues to rise, driven by the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest-rate cut. With the yen showing signs of weakness, the USD is shining brightly on the global stage. This is a golden opportunity for us traders to capitalize on the dollar's momentum. If you haven't already, now might be the perfect time to consider going long on the US dollar. 🌟 Why should you consider this move? 1. **Strong Performance**: The dollar's consistent growth over the past five weeks clearly indicates its robust performance. 2. **Market Uncertainty**: With the Fed's interest-rate cut timeline still unclear, the dollar is likely to remain strong in the near term. 3. **Yen Weakness**: The yen's current weakness further bolsters the USD's position, making it an attractive option for traders. Don't miss out on this opportunity to ride the wave of the dollar's success! Dive into the market and make the most of this winning streak. 💪 Happy trading, and here's to continued success in all your endeavors!
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
The dollar will capitulate and then soar!Updating my TVC:DXY predictions: 1. Everything hinges on carry trade with Japan 2. Japan is raising rates until they resubmit to negative interest rates this summer 3. The USDJPY will plummet until summer, this will cause the dollar to go down which increases inflation in the USA and deflation everywhere else due to the dollar being a reserve currency. 4. I believe the FED will cause inflation to go higher kicking the can down the street 5. After this summer the dollar will explode to over 140+ killing all other currencies as they print to escape deflationary depression. 6. The dollar will finally explode making way for CBDC's 7. Gold, Bitcoin, Rupee will be my final three picks for the end of 2030 for best assets and currencies. Of course you'll want a farm and freeze dried food for the coming collapse.
TVC:DXY
by EmptyEternity
6
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 17, 2024 USDJPYThe Dollar-Yen pair rose to 155.900 during the Asian session on Friday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) faced fresh pressure. This was due to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintaining its bond purchases from the previous operation, abandoning an unexpected cut in debt purchases earlier this week. Traders speculate that the BoJ may cut bond purchases at its June meeting. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also said there are no plans to sell the central bank's ETF funds. In an interview with Bloomberg, former BoJ chief economist Toshitaka Sekine suggested the BOJ could raise the benchmark interest rate three more times this year. Sekine noted that the next move could come as early as June, given the significant scope for adjustments to the current "excessively" accommodative settings. According to Reuters, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said at an event in Jacksonville on Thursday that interest rates should be patient, noting that significant price pressures remain in the U.S. economy. In addition, FRB Cleveland President Loretta Mester noted that it may take longer than expected to confidently determine the trajectory of inflation and suggested that the Fed should maintain a restrictive stance for an extended period. Trading Recommendation: On consolidation above 155.800 we consider buying, on rebound we take Sell positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 14, 2024 USDJPYThe Dollar-Yen pair continues to rally around 156.20 and higher in the early hours of Asian trading on Tuesday. The Japanese Yen is losing ground against the US Dollar (USD) despite the hawkish signal from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to reduce Japanese government bond purchases on Monday, as well as unfavorable Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for April last week. Investors will be more focused on key US economic data this week, including the Producer Price Index (PPI), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales. These reports will provide some hints as to whether inflation remains intractable, is falling slightly, or even possibly rising. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which reflects inflation at the wholesale level, is due out Tuesday and is expected to have risen 2.2% in April from a year earlier. The core PPI, which excludes energy and food costs, is expected to rise 2.4% y/y over the same reporting period. Traders can use the PPI report to gauge potential CPI results, and better-than-expected data could continue to strengthen the US Dollar (USD) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). As for the JPY, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) gave a hawkish signal on Monday by reducing the amount of Japanese government bonds (JGBs) it offered to buy as part of its regular buying operation. The move is expected to put upward pressure on Japanese bond yields and possibly narrow the gap between Japan and the US, which has weakened the Japanese Yen. However, the recent movement has been muted and has had little impact on the yen exchange rate. On Thursday, Japan will release the country's Q1 2024 GDP growth data. Stronger figures may lift the yen and limit the USD/JPY pair growth in the near term. Trading recommendation: Trade mainly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for May 02, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) jumped to a two-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday amid speculation that Japan's financial authorities stepped in again, for the second time in a week, to support the domestic currency. This came amid a sell-off in the US dollar (USD) following the FOMC meeting and took the USD/JPY pair to 153.000. The yen, however, trimmed some of its strong intraday gains and continued to lose ground during the Asian session on Thursday, bringing the currency pair back above the round figure of 156.000. The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) decision to keep interest rates at zero and an indication that it will continue to buy government bonds as recommended in March is a big divergence from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish signal. In fact, the U.S. central bank said on Wednesday that it wants more certainty that inflation will continue to fall before cutting rates. This, along with some dollar buying, lends support to the USD/JPY pair amid a positive risk tone that undermines the safe-haven Yen. Trading recommendation: Watch the level of 156.000, on a rebound take Sell positions. If consolidation is above, take Buy positions.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 26, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) remains under heavy selling pressure on the first day of the new week, pushing the USD/JPY pair above the psychological 160.00 mark for the first time since October 1986. The significant divergence in the Bank of Japan's policy outlook and the Fed's hawkish expectations continue to undermine the yen amid relatively low liquidity amid the holiday in Japanese markets. Nevertheless, overbought conditions and concerns over possible intervention by Japan to support its currency are helping to limit further losses. In addition, a modest decline in the US Dollar (USD) is keeping the currency pair's gains in check, although significant Yen appreciation still seems elusive amid uncertainty over the Bank of Japan's rate outlook. In addition, the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index released on Friday confirmed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will wait until September before cutting interest rates. This should continue to serve as a tailwind for the US Dollar. In addition, the overall positive tone on risks could undermine the safe-haven Yen and suggests that the path of least resistance for the USD/JPY pair lies to the upside ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC meeting that begins on Tuesday. This week, investors will also keep an eye on the release of important US macroeconomic data scheduled for early in the new month, including the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figure on Friday, before making new directional bets. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Sell orders from the current price level.
Short
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 26, 2024 GBPUSDThe GBP/USD pair is trading on a weak note around 1.2502 in the early hours of Asian trading on Friday. A moderate rise in the US Dollar (USD) is weighing on the major pair despite weak US GDP growth data. On Friday, the focus will be on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index data. On Thursday, the US economy grew at a slower pace of 1.6% in the first quarter of 2024, up from 3.4% in the previous quarter. That figure was weaker than market expectations of 2.5%. Nonetheless, prices remain stable, with data released Thursday showing that the personal consumption expenditure price index rose at a 3.4% annualized rate in the first quarter, above the Fed's 2% target. Following the release of weaker-than-expected first-quarter GDP growth data and better-than-expected inflation data, the dollar fell to two-week lows around the mid-105.00s. As for the Pound, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey and other BoE policymakers said that UK inflation has fallen in line with the central bank's expectations and the upside risk to inflation has diminished, paving the way for a rate cut. The market expects the U.K. central bank to wait to lower borrowing costs until next quarter, and to start ahead of the U.S. Fed. This, in turn, may limit the growth of the Pound Sterling (GBP). Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly on Buy from the level of 1.25000.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 24, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to struggle to make a significant recovery and languished near multi-decade lows against its US counterpart during Wednesday's Asian session. Traders seem reluctant to make a decision and prefer to wait for an important Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision on Friday. In addition, this week investors will face the release of the advance first quarter GDP report and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index from the US on Thursday and Friday respectively. The combination of key central bank events and important US macroeconomic data will play a key role in determining the next leg of directional movement for the Dollar-Yen pair. Meanwhile, expectations that the interest rate gap between the US and Japan will remain wide, along with the overall positive tone on risk, continue to undermine the safe-haven Yen. However, speculation that the Japanese authorities will intervene to support the local currency has kept JPY bears from betting aggressively. In addition, the US Dollar (USD) is near its lowest level in a week following Tuesday's disappointing US PMI data, and this is another factor contributing to the USD/JPY pair's decline. Nevertheless, hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve (Fed) should serve as a tailwind for the dollar and limit the currency pair's decline. Trading recommendation: Trade in the channel 154.200-154.900 on bounces from the levels.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 16, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese yen (JPY) fails to gain meaningful momentum during Tuesday's Asian session and languishes near the 34-year low reached against the U.S. currency the day before. Monday saw a report that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will focus less on inflation and shift to a more discretionary approach in setting monetary policy. Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said that after the abolition of negative rates in March, the central bank will revert to conventional monetary policy, which allows different data to determine the future path of rate hikes. This adds to the uncertainty in the BoJ's outlook for future rate hikes and continues to undermine the yen. In contrast, markets pushed back expectations for the first interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) following the release of better than expected US consumer inflation data for March. This suggests that the large rate differential between the two countries will persist for some time to come, which, along with the bullishness of the US Dollar (USD), serves as a tailwind for the Dollar-Yen pair. Trading recommendation: Trade predominantly with Buy orders from the current price level.
Long
by Fresh-Forexcast2004
Fundamental Market Analysis for April 04, 2024 USDJPYThe Japanese Yen (JPY) rises against its US counterpart during Thursday's Asian session and looks to consolidate the previous day's modest rebound from around multi-decade lows. The increasing threat of intervention from the Japanese authorities continues to provide some support for the currency. In addition, the overnight drop in the US Dollar (USD) to near one-week lows contributed to the USD/JPY pairing near 152.00. A report released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Wednesday showed that growth in the US services sector continued to lose momentum in March. This raises the stakes that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting rates in June, which triggered a sharp drop in US Treasury yields and had a strong impact on the dollar. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) cautious approach to further policy tightening suggests that the gap between US and Japanese rates will remain wide. This, along with fresh gains in stock markets, should contain a significant strengthening of the yen and limit the decline in the USD/JPY pair. Thus, the main focus will be on the release of the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Trading recommendation: Trade in the 151.200-152.000 channel on a rebound from the levels.
by Fresh-Forexcast2004