SPX 2900 confirmed There is currently a bearish divergence the size of Africa on the SPX500 right now.
Looking at past 2 higher TF bear divs that played out and taking in the following data: 1) how long the bear div is 2) how much it dumped afterwards
With some quick maffs we can figure out where price will go!
1) 84D range peak to peak, -5.54% peak to bottom
2) 245D range peak to peak, -18.35% peak to bottom
((5.54%/84) + (18.35%/245))/2 = 0.0704% of dump per day of beardiv length
And given the current bear div:
3) 371D range * 0.0704% = 26.127%
26.127% from here is around 2900
Thank you and come again
disclaimer: these opinions relate to a possibly fictitious outlook and this post is thus for informational and entertainment purposes only, and as such should not be construed as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice. Nothing contained within this post constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer by Pod, TradePod, or any third party service provider to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in this or in in any other jurisdiction in which such solicitation or offer would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction.
Twitter: @TradePod
Doom
Doom or Moon and Why WHY DOOM
- This is a very strange time for the crypto market.
- Bitcoin is pumping but alts are losing
- Usually BTC moves off lead indicators such as ETH in 2020 or LTC in the past. Even LINK.
- You can argue that the ETH pump was caused by the DEFI bubble.
- ETH has failed to catch up to BTC. BTC was able to catch up to near 12.5k.
- Traditionally speaking, when BTC bulls dominance increases alts go down.
- What is strange alts haven't even had a chance to catch up at all.
WHY MOON
- In 2017 BTC didn't need any help from the alt coins.
- When it pumped the alts waited until the end of the ATH to get going.
- BTC has been able to bounce off EMA in which it did in 2017.
- Buying pressure has increased since BTC and is seen as an alternative market to stocks.
- Macro trend is long term bullish.
- 5 Day Macd has a bullish convergence.
Overall Analysis
- I would like to see BTC crush 12.5k and balloon to the 13k-14k range and consolidate from there.
- Thus, enabling alt coins to play catch up.
- I believe this will create a healthy market.
- In the meantime, I believe this is a very strange area to be in.
- My chart is indicating that their may be an alt season coming.
This scenario has wondering. Does this mean an alt season is near, or further continuation of BTC, or the signs of a mega crash?
USD's pain is the WORLD's, and CRYPTO's gain !If we break below the black multi-year support line, and if we test it's underbelly successfully by bouncing off the white 0.25 level of the Schiff pitchfork, which we seem to have done already, we need to fall below the white 0.25 level and turn it into resistance.
If this happens and if we stay decisively below it, for several weeks, after multiple unsuccessful tries to break through and up.
In that case...
...the coming bitcoin bull-run will leave in the dust pretty much every bull-market we've ever seen in the financial world people will be stunned.
In the very long run, on a ten to thirty year horizon, the world is going to de-dollarize further. This is bad for the value of the dollar, and very good for the Emerging Market's massive volume of dollar-denominated loans, as the dollar will weaken, those loans will be way easier to finance.
One last try??BTCUSD in a falling wedge channel pattern. Will it make one more attempt to burst up to $10K? or fall out of the channel and keep falling... a lot depends on stock markets also. Were on the verge of bad Q2 results, Virus issues arising again... what will happen next? we wait and see what happens, Limbo continues...
Weekly outlook on Bitcoin, will we rise like the COBRA!????Well we are STILL in a down trend on the weekly time frame BUT we are at a very significant level right now. If bitcoin can get above the previous swing high at 10,500 that will put us into uptrend territory. After passing 11,500 on a closing weekly basis it will be highly likely that we revisit all time highs and that is where things will get exciting. As for the Bears, if they want to take control this is the level it will happen at.
Comparing bear flags on the S&P 500.The left chart has our current set of circumstances on the 12H settings and the right has the previous bear flag on the 4H settings. As this move matures we will have to look at higher and higher time frames to determine which one is controlling.
The rising red arrow shows on both MACD histograms shows classic bearish divergence between the indicator and price action. The purple arrows shows hidden bearish divergence about to rip this uptrend apart. The 4h chart had a clean cross of the MACD and signal line while the 12h chart shows a sloppier move. The blue fractal is a lot harder to see scrunched off to the left but an honest look at the MACD required such.
The trend lines should be very similar. The resistance held for many bars and then the price action pulls away at the bollinger band. From there previous support turns to resistance and we get a rough double top formation. A second test of the bollinger band at this new resistance and the uptrend is over.
And finally the volume situation is similar. These chars are the daily for the left chart and hourly for the right. The formations have falling volume generally and the OBV and OBV 10 and 20 are clearly under the 100 OBV EMA. A very bearish situation on price action and volume action.
Please see the linked post for some target setting and broader context.
The American Empire has fallen. Printing money, bailouts, crooked politicians (all of them), corporate greed, have caused The American Empire to fall. We have been in a bubble, you just needed to be looking at it from a different perspective.
I compare the daily chart of Bitcoin to the monthly chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the similarities are striking.
The Dow is in you typical wall street cheat sheet bubble. The Bubble has burst. Because the bubble is seen on a monthly chart, this will happen over a long period of time.
A massive stimulus package will be passed, money will be printed, people will get checks, entire industries will be bailed out, and everything will seem like business as usual as we all get complacent. There will be a relief rally over the next couple years but the high is in. Once the bounce is over, America will plunge into a depression in much more violent times.
Democracy and Capitalism work if people are reasonable but human nature eventually takes over as people take the system for granted. From the CEO's to the politicians, to the scammer and even the citizens. Greed and corruption leaves you with nothing in the end.
The coronavirus is already showing the inefficient nature of democracy and the benefits of a system like China. Building hospitals and bridges in the same time you can get a zoning permit in the U.S. China has showed the world they stopped the virus (if you believe them), while democracies all around the world will not be able to take the extreme and draconian measures that may be required. Even if you believe China is lying, the fact that they can keep the citizens and media in line shows their strength.
WW2 marked the end of The Great Depression
WW3 will Make The Depression Great Again.
I expect a bounce (making a lower high but) causing everyone to think the coast is clear. Trump will say he singlehandedly saved us from the virus and saved our economy and he will get reelected. A major event will happen that causes us to crash again and the government and fed will have no more ammo to shoot at the next crisis. We will get into an escalating militarty conflict with China, Russia, N Korea, Iran (fill in the adversary) and plunge into WW3 that will bring us not far from the stone age.
Good luck everyone and plan accordingly.
The reasons why i feel the btc bottom is not in yet.During the dump -
- broke the uptrend line from last year.
- made a lower low on the weekly.
- will likely break the monthly 21 EMA once the monthly closes.
- Close below weekly 200 SMA.
- Broke the .618 fib levels.
If you are long term believer of btc, now is the time to dollar cost average to long term holdings.
Don't try and catch the bottom, cuz you will likely fail. Don't use high leverage when trading this - books are thin, and risk is high as well. All the beest everyone the winter is far from over!
Bitcoin will rally and altcoins are going to plummettAs we can see, Bitcoin has successfully broken a very strong resistance meanwhile majority of alts are still under the resistance as well as that, the bitcoin dominance chart appears to be reaching support, all of this data would suggest that bitcoin is about to have a decent bull run and the alts are all going to drop soon, I have picked out 2 alts (ADA and ETH) which I believe are the most likely to fall
3.2k fractal in play. Moon or doom time.Please see chart for similarities in RSI structure and how we dipped right under the point of control before take off. Also see how we rode the 55 ema the entire time. It's beautiful. I believe we will moon today. If we lose 9k I think we may slow bleed until 8.2k and hopefully that holds. If it doesn't I will become a macro bear :(
BTC BEARISH PREPARE BERAS in control right now. Tapped the top supply zone and ready to dump and liquidation.exe bulas.
Be ready
KNIFE CUT = "The cycle should restart, usually start with a dump" cit. "lord Bera"
SB = "The red line is here, ready to melt faces" cit. "Lord Bera"
Do you contertrade me? you get liquidated
8200 lost DAILY BERARISH8200 lost on the daily close.
7400 more likely.
Why the buy box range from 7.4keks to 6.8keks, simple becayse i am smart bera and i split my orders, divide your entry from 7.4k to 6.8k in case. this wick will be strong and technically we are catching one big knife that could cut our head ok
BE SAFE