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NASDAQ Could Lose 20 Years of Gains - NDX100 The use of technical analysis can be extremely enlightening when trying to evaluate were a new bear market might end. I am currently in cash, and I am working on understanding where the value zone is for stocks. The value zone is the area where the supply and demand equations shifts from fear to greed. Right now, the market is in freefall and even the Philippines has closed their exchange indefinitely. Interestingly it took the NASDAQ 100 16 years to recover from the DOTCOM 2000 crisis. Since then 2008 bottom is has risen an incredible 804% So, from that meteoric rise, it is a long way down. The NDX100 has lost 27% so far and has broken through the 2018 support and I am sure will break the 4-year support line soon. There is a possible 32% further drop back down to the year 2000 high which would wipe out 20 years of gains. I would see great value when the Nasdaq 100 drops under 6000. Technical analysis comes with some caveats that many technical analysts will not discuss: 1. Government intervention massively impacts the supply and demand equation. 2. Drops in Interest rates and a nearly $1 Trillion Emergency fund will change the outlook. Ultimately the governments need to protect people, protect jobs and ensure the sick are looked after. That is more important than money. I wish all of you and your families good health and wish you all a happy lockdown as our civil societies go into isolation. Barry
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by liberatedstocktrader
TRASH TO SPACE? | Waste ManagementWaste Management is one of the few stocks I've traded over the years. Waste Management is a beautiful opportunity for investors with 30%+ gains avg. a year, for the last 5 year years. When it comes to stocks, I often ask myself "do we NEED this company/service"... When it comes to trash, we do. I think it's going to be interesting what's to come for WM, will it strive through this next crash? Pattern Recognition: - As we validate this rising wedge, we look for a few more waves before it's descend (if rising wedge is successful). We look for a retest near $115 most definitely, if the bears can push we will see farther retest toward the $108 level. Trash In Space? " The development will occur in two phases. In Phase A, selected companies will create a concept trash compaction and processing system, conduct design reviews with NASA, and validate concepts through prototype ground demonstrations. Throughout this phase, the companies may request use of NASA facilities to conduct subsystem tests. In Phase B, a flight unit will be developed to demonstrate a system aboard the space station as early as 2022. Inherent with the NextSTEP partnership model, private companies must contribute their own corporate resources toward the development of their trash compaction and processing systems. In this case, responders are required to show a minimum of 20 percent contribution toward the overall development cost, or 10 percent for small businesses. Proposals are due August 22, 2018. NASA plans to host a " The future is closer than many think.... As always, I'm not a financial adviser nor am I providing financial advice. DotcomJack
NYSE:WMLong
by DotcomJack
6
Amazon: Signs of a Dot Com Bubble burst.This study is intended to point out some very obvious similarities of Amazon's current trading action with that of the stock's Dot Com crisis period. Our sole purpose is not to spread panic to a stock market that is currently strong and trading on All Time High territory but to keep investors on their toes and make potential buyers check and double check by looking on all possible angles before investing on AMZN. Even though the price action now and then share many common features, it is of course common sense that it takes more than just similar candle action to justify such a bubble burst like the Dot Com collapse and that comes on a certain fundamental framework of a very negative series of events that shake a part of the economy as a whole (even a recession). Some can argue that the U.S. - China trade war is such an event and they do have a valid point. But it is too early to tell. Can this be an end of an era for Amazon? Hard (and as said early) to tell, but it certainly provides a certain structure that investors may follow in order to limit the risk of such a potential price blast. In our opinion it is safer to either buy AMZN once the All Time High breaks or if by any extremely negative turn of events approach 1,300 again. Use this information at your own discretion but certainly be very skeptical of this tech giant. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
NASDAQ:AMZN
by InvestingScope
5
S&P500 IT BubbleTaking a look at the IT sector of the S&P 500, we can see a some-what bubble formation. If you look back at the DotCom Bubble you will notice the same has developed ( High, High Low, High High) before tumbling down. Same as the Bitcoin Bubble. Now, going back to this chart it has currently formed that High, High Low and High High pattern exactly the same as the Dotcom and bitcoin bubbles did which leads me to believe, the IT industry crash is imminent. As tech gets more reliable, there are more and more people who need to buy less of it as their current technological device is reliable enough. Slowing the growth of the market before eventually dropping off. Any comments or criticism is welcome.
SP:S5INFTShort
by JamesEY
1
From a bubble to a new paradigmJust some thoughts on the market psychology on bubbles. Prevailing market sentiment on Booking in 2000: "No stock can recover from that type of bubble." "Booking is the new Tulip bubble, they took your money for good." "Internet companies? The Internet is nice but you can't expect them to be able to make real money." Prevailing market sentiment on Bitcoin in 2019: "No financial asset can recover from that type of bubble." "Bitcoin is the new Tulip bubble, they took your money for good." "Digital currencies? Cryptos are nice but you can't expect them to have any real use in the real world." Booking went from one of most thunderous busts of the Dotcom Bubble to being its industry's leader. Despite Bitcoin's impressive historic chart, it faces the same degree of disbelief. Will history repeat?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by TradingShot
6
BTCUSD vs DOT COM BUBBLE Okay, I think I will get some criticism for this comparison but anyways I need to share this idea. First of all, I know that the DOT COM BUBBLE was forming much longer then "Bitcoin bubble" therefore I have chosen weekly chart for NASDAQ composite and daily chart for Bitcoin. If you check the rise and fall of both, the percentages are very similar. Even the pattern looks almost the same. Based on this comparison Bitcoin will most likely rise now around 150% from the last bottom, then fall back to the bottom and start rising with the same/similar structure as the NASDAQ composite. When this happens and if Bitcoin continues to follow the DOT COM bubble structure (just faster) then we will see more stabile rise than until now, very soon :) Please, do not take this idea as something that must happen but look at the similarity and think about it your own way.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by Catch-trades
8
LONG BITCOIN TO BOTTOM AT $5K? History reveals hidden "There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again" -Jesse Livermore. Despite claims that millennials are the most purpose driven generation, history shows they have failed to overcome the traps of speculation and investment. From the Tulip bubble(1634) to the Gold bubble(1980), we saw the psychology of fear and greed in market prices. Just when it seemed investors and traders have learned, then came the dot com bubble(1996) which was followed by the Real estate bubble(2008). In the middle of the financial crisis in 2008, A new technology was born, with a promise to end all financial crisis and restore trust to the financial system. Despite its disruptive and use case, we have found ourselves once again in a bubble which raises the question, "Have we ever learned from history?" I will argue that yes we have. The fact is, regardless of the disruptive nature of any invention, markets eventually run ahead of reality, greed kicks in and then comes the dip. Bubble are arguably healthy for the ecosystem as it eliminate the "dump money" looking to get rich quick. They also create Technical entry points for long term investor. But how do we know when a market has bottom? History has shown that most market crashes are likely to bottom at 75% dip on just below. Stock market traders use market sentiment charts to measure this. For stock trading, when the market sentiment index scale(0-100) reaches or drops below 25, it indicates a buy signal. Looking at the BTCUSD chart, price fall from all time high to $5000 or slightly below indicate a dip of 75% which shows we are left with 25%. Cryptocurrencies are a highly volatile asset class and thus, its very difficult to pin point the exact momentum to which the price will reverse. This for what it is, will serve as a technical point for a major reversal together with fundamentals at the given time.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Santiago1
Could we be nearing the end, was 5,700 the bottom, or doom?I started comparing the dotcom crash and 2014 crash. If I compare it with the dotcom crash then it looks like bottom is here, if i compare it to the 2014 crash, we might have hit the bottom too... 2014 was more steeper in angle movements than 2018, the thing with 2018 crash, there is a lot of other factors this time in effect. CME on other hand has a big part in the price movement this time, which is controlling the previous steep movements, also if BTC market cap would drop below 100B CME would de-list and halt all BTC trading which would cost them billions.... I know some people here will ask, but it dropped below 100B on Sunday, my answer to that would probably be since Sunday is no trading day for CME I would consider that day as a loop hole, but we did notice BTC quickly recover. I would love to hear other Ideas, or theories and bottom targets with good details.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by H3H
5
Bitcoin's price the following months - It's all going down.Bitcoin have ever since 2017 September, when the actual bullrun started, followed a certain pattern. This is a pattern of a bubble, and the closest resemble to the BTC chart we have is the dotcom bubble. If you compare them side by side you can see BTC is following the dotcom patten exactly alike. This makes us believe it will continue to do it, and if that's the case we will bounce back up hard when we hit 5.5k, because that means we are double bottoming the sell off in 2017 November. So the targets are like these: Target 1: 5.5k then bounce up to around 9k then drop down to 3.3k Give me your ideas.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by NormalGuyOnTelegram
2
BTCUSD - The Blockhain CrashTo start off this little essay I'd like to start off with a disclaimer - I'm no visionary and unfortunately still incapable of exact event-prediction, therefore this analysis is a pure digression through my thoughts and an exposition of ideas and my current bias in the whole crypto-sphere. I've grown to become a believer that Trading Analysis without a background of research on the current political and economical state of affairs is a blind attempt at finding direction in the repetitive cycle that a trend leads to its own continuation until a reversal happens. Through my trading experience I've seen myself exiting early positions in trades purely due to the fear of reversal as key points (TP zones) were being targeted). This has always felt somewhat counterproductive and while I don't dismiss TA as an accurate way to set targets for profit and to cut losing trades short, I also think that it needs some form of validation to increase your awareness towards the move with higher probability. This is achieved by understanding the mind of the key investors and the overall sentiment across the world. So lets begin, shall we: - The crypto-sphere is in a very similar stage to the the tech startups of the late 90s. The overall understanding of the technology and its potential it's still very shallow and its potential overestimated. Cryptocurrency startups raise millions of dollars on the basis of a (quite-often poorly constructed) white paper exposing the theory behind their proposed blockchain technology. Revolutionary ideas for sure, some of them with a working product already but the number of business cases is still lower than low. The excitement and customer confidence in this new technology is what increases demand for the purchase of what a lot of the retail investors see as the equivalent of equity in a company, while in actuality these coins are pure stores of value. This has led to a massive discrepancy between real value and perceptual value. While the uptrend was definitely a sign of reflexivity in which the trend increases buyers and buyers will continue the tend, by January a state of doubt/reality check started to make an appearance. We're now seeing reflexivity applied to the downtrend. It was triggered by a fear that cryptos are still in an early stage and in risk of being obliterated by big financial corps/regulatory measures, yet currently we're seeing a strong downtrend increase sellers and that therefore continuing the trend. There's an embedded bearish state of mind in investors and a belief we're heading lower. This will more than likely be the reality - From a political standpoint we're seeing the western worldwide moving to an aggressive right-wing mentality. We're seeing protectionist regulations being implemented (most recently the US tariffs on Alluminum, steel and quite possibly on Chinese imports)/immigration and border control taken to extremes (Brexit, dismantlement of coalitions, states and cities trying to become independent...), all this suggests we're heading towards trade wars or at least trade restrictions until the smoke settles and new coalitions have been formed. We're witnessing an exhaustion of the current political and trade partnerships. (next comment)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ikc7979
1
Only lazy did not do itMany who have already compared the dot-com bubble with the situation that develops in the crypto-currency market and in particular with Bitcoin. Basically, the decrease in BTCUSD is compared with the beginning of 2018 with the collapse of the NASDAQ index in 2000. It is not entirely correct to compare graphs to a straight line since there is a significant difference between market volumes and the development of technologies in general, which are used for trading in these markets. Exchange activity during the boom of technology companies, as well as the idea of Internet trading, as just beginning to develop. Therefore, we see that the price actions are slower and less in percentage terms compared to price fluctuations in the market of crypto-currencies. It is worthwhile to compare fundamentally the situation with dotcoms and the market of crypto-currencies and to pay attention to the stage at which the blockchain sphere and Bitcoin are currently located. The bubble of dotcoms was formed as a result of the emergence of a large number of new Internet companies (GOOG, YHOO) and companies that began to rapidly reorient old business ideas on the Internet (AMZN, EBAY). In the field of crypto-currency, the same situation occurs: many new companies come to the market with their projects and receive funds for development by conducting initial coin offering and pass the listing procedures for exchanges(CREDITS), and existing and functioning companies start using blocking technologies as in separate projects(IBM), and completely reoriented, and give the leading role to crypto-currencies in the company's further strategy (KODK, RIOT). According to technical analysis, if we consider further price movement after the collapse of the dotcom bubble, we can see a long and stable upward trend, if we do not take into account the 2008 US mortgage crisis. Now the price of BTCUSD repeats the same pattern of motion, so there is a high probability that the downtrend will be broken, and an upward trend will begin that will be much faster and more volatile compared to the price movement for technology companies in the US stock market.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Pricemann
BTC ROADMAP, LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL! (BTC VS DOTCOM)I know Bulls, Im sick out it too. I'm sick of all fud, and the haters that made no money last year walk around like experts because Bitcoin finally crashed and, they "told you so". I didnt want to believe it either; i didnt want to believe the "bubble" was real and it finally popped. It hurts my poor little bullish heart to say it, but the haters were finally right this time. After the breach of the support @ 8k, i knew this wasnt just the normal 50-60% correction we were use to. And like many, I'm sure many of us got stuck holding those 50% discounted bags. However, rest assured, these bears will eat their words sooner than they think, and we will be back on our way to the moon again. Above I have laid out a comparison between BTC & The DOTCOM Bubble. I felt it was only right to compare a bubble of this magnitude to another bubble of similar global attention and similar influence. I did not feel a comparison to one of btc's previous bubbles could map out the uncharted territory we currently find ourselves journeying through. Although on different timelines, it is evident, crypto with the help of the social media boom, is moving exponentially faster. Thus, what took the DOTCOM bubble years to recover from, I believe Bitcoin & Crypto can recover from in under a year. With that said, there just isnt much upcoming news for btc in particular, thus i have noted the dates of the upcoming G20 meetings on my chart as possible catalysts for price movements. I feel now after garnering global attention, btc will have to endure many hurdles before we can amount the confidence to continue our next bull run. Many of these hurdles will regard regulation and how many of these countries financial leaders choose to approach crypto. If these meetings lean in favor of interest for crypto, and lack hostility, I can see this having a positive effect on bitcoins price. However, any regulation placed without the utmost care could hurt btc's growth and scare away possible new investors. For those of you who bought too soon and still have money to invest, I would suggest placing very low buy orders @ 3kish & under to try to dollar cost average out your portfolio a bit more. That way when btc does start to make a run, you will not have to wait for btc to pass your original buy in price to start making money again. #HODL But why 3k? The floor in my opinion is 3k. it is our first real run up away from the normal ranging btc price of 500-1500 prior to 2017, and a sturdy foundation to cushion btc's fall made evident by the amount of times price has touched this level. Other Catalysts to watch out for but not mentioned are, Tether (if rumors are true and tether is indeed printing money without sufficient funds before the market has an alternative), and Stock Market Instability. It is no secret, the stock market will eventually crash again; when? its anyone guess. But even instability in this market could attract new investors as a hedge against these tradition investment institutions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Woolf_
11
DOT COM DO-OVER Part 2. Are you ready?What makes 2012~2017 different from 1995~2000? Can you tell me what key factors will prevent a repeat DOT COM (technology) crash? In 1995~1999, the US was the single biggest and most advanced player in the technology field. Investment poured into these US tech firms as it was the only game on the planet. In 2012~2017, the US was the single biggest and most advanced economy in the world and tech (FANGs) continued to lead the US markets ROI. Global investment in the US tech market continued to soar and this advancement spilled into other global markets (China, Europe and SE Asia) as expectations (HYPE) continued to soar. Global markets have shown parallels to the US market with regards to price valuation based on the success (ROI) derived from US investments. If GOOG has risen by n%, the XYZ (foreign company) should be worth comparable values. Think of SNAP, TWITTER, Alibaba and other foreign tech firms. What drives this valuation? How are these firms considered for valuation?? Is it pure HYPE? Look at the correlation between this chart and the earlier DOT COM chart I posted? See any similarities? Could we be one global event away from total market collapse? All it would take in my opinion would be : _ Further contraction in the NQ setting up a "right shoulder". (roughly 4~12% correction from highs followed by a small rally). _ Public perception to continue to HYPE the tech field while erosion in the major markets continues. _ A single (or multiple) global events to provide the catalyst for the crash (NK, EU, China, OTHERS). The similarities are freaky and the fact that so many people are missing this. Be aware folks. We could only be 12~24 weeks away from something catastrophic.
NYSE:XCIShort
by BradMatheny
1
MSFT Shares Near Dot-Com Peak Shares of Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ: MSFT) declined last week, but remained within range of their 1999 peak as investors continued to rally behind the company’s second quarter earnings beat. The Redmond, Washington-based technology giant closed at $57.62 Friday, having declined 0.6% for the week. For the month of August, the company’s value has increased 1.8%. @iBrokers we are short on MSFT but careful with risk of breaking to the upper side of recent highs. See chart for Resistance www.ibrokers.ee
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by iBrokers
Never forget the past / What's the next black Swan ?Always good to look back in time. remember this : Tiscali – Important Italian telecommunications company whose share price grew from €46 (IPO in November 1999) to €1,197 in four months. They fell to €40 afterwards in less than two months and have continued plummeting to well under 0.2 euro. [ Think Tools AG – One of the most extreme symptoms of the bubble in Europe: market valuation of CHF 2.5 billion in March 2000, no prospects of having a substantial product (investor deception), followed by a collapse InfoSpace – In March 2000 this stock reached a price $1,305 per share, but by April 2001 the price had crashed down to $22 a share. The only thing you have to do is maybe replace Tiscali by Snapchat and Tinktools by Uber :) Everytime the RSI is overbrought in the monthly , There will be a correction that year. So it's just waiting now , who turn the fire on the wick :)
FX:GER30
by carman
5