EURCAD/LONGThis video was just a quick technical analysis of eurcad basically breaking down market structure and the behavior of the market. in the video i show you guys how you can make a thesis or gather information from a simple pattern. mainly if you see a pattern you can draw your support and resistance levels at the top or bottom of these patterns and look to your left and gather information on WHY market made pattern at a certin level.
EURCAD/LONG
Double Bottom
EURNZD BUY so yesterday i got in successful GJ buy but towards the start of new york i failed to hold and got out at a smaller profit than intended now im in eurnzd longs to make that profit back .
Eurnzd has made multiple bullish confirmations showing buyers are startin to gain control.
EURNZD/LONG
👑 GOLD KEY🗝️ LEVEL TO WATCH👀 AND WHY🤔Greetings, Traders! Here's a quick update on the Gold market:
📉 Pattern: Double Bottom
📊 Current Status: The price confidently trades above the Neck Line Breakout at 2023.779.
🎯 Near-Term Targets:
Target 1: Aiming for the 100% retracement level at 2032.606
Target 2: Aspiring towards the 162% retracement level at 2038.067
Traders, stay vigilant as the market unfolds. Adjust your strategy based on real-time conditions, and, as always, implement robust risk management practices.
If you have any queries or need further insights, feel free to ask. Wishing you successful trades! 🚀🔍
🤔 Why these levels? These levels aren't just targets; they also signify potential reversal zones. Let me explain:
100% Retracement (Target 1 - 2032.606):
This level marks a complete retracement of the initial downswing that formed the Double Bottom pattern. Traders often expect a reaction or a pause in the upward movement around this level.
162% Retracement (Target 2 - 2038.067):
The 162% extension is a common Fibonacci level used in technical analysis. Some traders view this as an extended target where the price might show additional strength or face resistance.
USOILUSOIL is trading under descending trendline. The price was reacting well the support and resistance of trendline.
Currently the price is about to give breakout from falling wedge and after successful retest of the level will be bullish signal and seems like the price may go for another leg higher.
If the breakout sustain to upside the optimum target could be 74.50 followed by 77.
What you guys think of this idea?
Why You Should Avoid Trading Standard Patterns: Deeper AnalysisTrading based on technical analysis is a popular way for traders to identify market opportunities. One of the most common methods of technical analysis is the use of chart patterns. These patterns are recognizable formations created by price movements on a chart.
Traders use these patterns to identify potential areas of support and resistance, as well as trend reversals. However, there are several reasons why you should avoid trading standard patterns:
1. Widespread Awareness and Anticipation:
Standard patterns are well-known and widely anticipated by market participants. This means that they are already priced in, making trading them a low-probability strategy.
2. Potential for False Signals:
The formation of a pattern on a chart does not guarantee the expected outcome. In fact, standard patterns can often lead to false breakouts and failed trades.
3. Difficulty in Trading Effectively:
Trading standard patterns effectively requires a high level of skill and experience. Without a deep understanding of market structure and price behavior, traders can easily fall victim to false signals and whipsaws.
Advantages of Trading Liquidity Patterns:
Liquidity patterns offer a more effective and reliable alternative to standard patterns. These patterns are based on the concept of market liquidity, which refers to the ease with which an asset can be bought or sold without impacting its price. By identifying areas of high and low liquidity, traders can gain an edge in the market.
In-depth Analysis of Popular Patterns:
1. Double Bottom:
The classic double bottom pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that forms when the price of an asset makes two consecutive lows at the same level, followed by a rally.
However, the standard double bottom pattern has a significant drawback: it leaves liquidity below the lows, which can lead to false breakouts and failed trades.
A more effective way to trade this pattern is to look for a lower low. This occurs when the price makes a new low below the previous two lows. This indicates that the market is absorbing all the sell liquidity and is ready to move higher.
2. Triangle:
A triangle is a consolidation pattern that forms when the price of an asset ranges between two converging trendlines.
Traders often look for breakout trades in triangles, but this can be risky.
False breakouts are a common occurrence in triangle patterns.
This is because market makers often manipulate the price to induce traders to break out of the pattern, only to reverse the price and trap them in losing trades.
A more effective way to trade triangles is to look for liquidity grabs. This occurs when the price moves outside of the triangle, only to quickly return back inside. This indicates that market makers are taking liquidity from the market and are preparing to move the price in the opposite direction.
Practical Tips for Trading Liquidity Patterns:
Always trade with the trend. Liquidity patterns are most effective when they are traded in the direction of the overall trend.
Use stop-loss orders to protect your downside. This will help to limit your losses if the trade does not go your way.
Be patient and wait for the right setup. Don't force trades and only take those that meet your criteria.
Additional Considerations:
Market context: It is important to consider the overall market context when trading liquidity patterns. For example, patterns are more likely to be successful in trending markets than in range-bound markets.
Risk management : Always use sound risk management principles when trading, regardless of the pattern you are using. This includes using stop-loss orders and position sizing appropriately.
False signals: It is important to be aware of the potential for false signals when trading liquidity patterns. Not all patterns will lead to successful trades, and it is important to be prepared for losses.
Can AMC continue after a good trading day ? LONGAMC on a 30-minute chart is putting in a double bottom. In mid-December, a symmetrical
head and shoulders is formed. The right shoulder being higher than the left makes for a
diagonal neckline which yields a target in the area of 5 confluent with the level of a high
pivot on January 10th. A standard Fibonacci retracement of the Janaury trend down would
put a target at about 4.55. The AI predictive tool looking back for similar patterns has printed
a buy signal. On this instrument at this time frame, the indicator has a 98% accuracy
for win rate. The ADX indicator shows a line cross and a "green" bull trend beginning.
Overall, I find AMC to be set for a long trade targeting 4.5 and 4.95 for one-third each with
the remaining to run in case a short squeeze gets underway.
Double Bottom Breakout and Symmetrical Triangle = PUMPInternet Computer (ICP) has undergone an extended period of trading within a horizontal accumulation pattern, accompanied by the formation of a significant double bottom pattern with a liquidity grab. Following the successful execution of the double bottom pattern, ICP broke out from the accumulation range, and it is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle. The anticipation is for a potential upward breakout from the symmetrical triangle pattern.
🔄 Horizontal Accumulation and Double Bottom Formation:
ICP's extended consolidation within the horizontal accumulation pattern provided the groundwork for the formation of a double bottom pattern. The pattern is characterized by a strategic liquidity grab, indicating a shift in market dynamics and potential accumulation of positions.
🚀 Double Bottom Breakout Impact:
The successful breakout from the double bottom pattern signified a reversal of the prevailing bearish sentiment. This breakout is indicative of increased buying interest, potentially paving the way for a sustained upward move.
🔍 Symmetrical Triangle Formation:
ICP is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle, marked by converging trendlines that create a triangular pattern. The symmetrical triangle often represents a period of consolidation and indecision in the market, with the potential for a significant breakout.
💡 Anticipating Upward Breakout:
The symmetrical triangle pattern suggests that ICP is coiling within a tightening range. An upward breakout from the symmetrical triangle could signal a continuation of the bullish momentum initiated by the double bottom breakout. Traders and investors may anticipate potential higher price levels if the symmetrical triangle is breached to the upside.
🔮 Future Outlook:
The technical analysis indicates a favorable setup for ICP, with the successful execution of the double bottom pattern and the current consolidation within a symmetrical triangle. Traders should closely monitor the price action for confirmation of an upward breakout from the triangle pattern. The cryptocurrency market's dynamic nature emphasizes the importance of adaptability and risk management in trading decisions. If the symmetrical triangle is decisively breached to the upside, it may open the door for further upward movement in ICP.
Strong Buy SBIN cmp 622, Target 670++ within 3-5 trade sessions.State Bank of India is a Fortune 500 company. It is an Indian Multinational, Public Sector banking and financial services statutory body headquartered in Mumbai. It is the largest and oldest bank in India with over 200 years of history.
Branch Network
Presently, the bank operates a network of 22,219 branches and 62617 ATMs across India. It also operates 71,968 business correspondent outlets across India.
Market Share
The bank has a market share of 22.84% in deposits and 19.69% share in advances in India. It has a strong customer base of 45 crore customers.
Loan Book
Retail loans account for 39% of the loan book, followed by corporate (37%), SME (14%) and Agriculture (10%). The bank has a well-diversified loan book exposed to various sectors. Top sectors include home loans (23%), infrastructure (15%), services (12%) and agriculture (10%). 75% of the corporate advances are rated A and better ratings from rating agencies. 38% of the corporate book accounts for PSUs & Govt. departments.
International Business
The bank has a global footprint with a network of 233 branches/offices in 32 countries. It has presence in USA, Canada, Brazil, Russia, Germany, France, Turkey, Australia, Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and other countries. Presently, Overseas business accounts for 3% of total deposits and 13% of total advances.
Government Business
SBI has always been the banker of choice to the government of India and is the market leader in government business. It had turnover of 52,50,000 lakh crores and commissions of 3,700 crores from government business in FY20.
Financial Inclusion Business
The bank has 71,000 BC outlets which has primary focus on financial inclusion customers. The bank accounts for 40% of all PMJDY accounts i.e. more than 12 crore accounts. Presently, the deposits from PMJDY accounts are 42,500 crores i.e. 1.2% of total deposits of the bank.
Digital Metrics
Increasing digitization resulted in 40% of asset accounts and 60% of liability customers added via digital channels in FY21.
Subsidiaries Operations
The bank owns various subsidiaries which are engaged in related business activities :-
1. SBI Capital Markets Ltd (100% stake)
2. SBI DHFI Ltd (72% stake)
3. SBI Cards and Payment Services Ltd (69% stake)
4. SBI Life Insurance Co. Ltd (57.6% stake)
5. SBI Funds Management Pvt Ltd (63% stake)
6. SBI General Insurance Company Ltd (70% stake)
KEY Ratios (Q1FY24)
Capital Adequacy Ratio - 14.50%
Net Interest Margin - 3.34%
Gross NPA - 4.77%
Net NPA - 1.23%
CASA Ratio - 45.15%
Book Value ₹ 402
Price to book value 1.55
Bank's performance:
Quarterly net profit of 14,330 crores.
Operating profit for Q2FY24 at 19,417 crores.
RoA for H1FY24 at 1.10%.
RoE for H1FY24 at 22.57%.
Net interest income increased by 12.27% YoY.
Non-interest income increased by 21.59% YoY.
Credit growth:
Domestic advances grew by 13.21%.
Driven by SME advances, retail personal advances, and agri advances.
Corporate segment advances grew by 6.62%.
Asset quality:
Gross NPA ratio improved by 97 bps YoY to 2.55%.
Net NPA ratio improved by 16 bps to 0.64%.
PCR improved by 39 bps YoY to 91.93%.
Future outlook:
Credit and deposit growth expected to be around 16-17% in FY24.
Margins may see a slight compression of 3-5 bps due to increased deposit rates.
Aims to maintain credit growth momentum by disbursing pending loans and converting proposals into sanctions.
SME loans:
Witnessed healthy growth in SME book.
Initiatives taken to improve infrastructure for SME lending.
Expects to reach target of 4 trillion in SME loans by FY24.
Unsecured loans:
Unsecured loan portfolio, including Xpress Credit, has a low GNPA ratio of 0.69%.
Resilient in terms of asset quality.
Digital initiatives:
Increased traction in cross-selling business through YONO.
Sourced 61% of savings bank accounts digitally.
Launched "YONO for Every Indian" and witnessed growth in digital loan portfolio.
Capital adequacy:
Well capitalized with a capital adequacy ratio of 14.28% and CET-1 ratio of 9.94% which is well above regulatory requirements. Expects CET-1 ratio to improve further with ploughing back of profits.
Conclusion:
SBIN stock price has given a breakout multiple times along with the strong volumes and today it has retested the breakout zone, which is a strong buying point for a minimum target of 670 in 3-5 trading sessions. Fundamentally, stock can has an intrinsic valuation of Rs.800 so there is an enough cushion and momentum on upside.
PAISALO - Poised to break all time high, for a swing of 25%The stock is in strong uptrend in all time frames - higher to daily and above.
The stock is in strong momentum based on RSI in D, W, M. All above 60.
Daily is reversing from a Higher low formation with double bottom and Morning star formation.
One may consider an entry based on today's close candle, or even at cmp if aggressive.
Entry - 104/105
Target - 112 , 126, 136.
Trail profits after each target.
TLT: Falling Wedge Double Bottom at .382 with Bullish DivergenceThe TLT looks like it's trying to form a Double Bottom at the 0.382 Fibonacci Retracement, it is also Bullishly Diverging at this level, if it holds up I think it could go up to as high as $96 near the 200-period Simple Moving Average which would also fill the gap. From there I'd think it could continue back down.
I will be selling weekly puts around the lower 90 strike and buying weekly calls at the same level.
CHFJPY 1H Possible Double bottom in an up trend channelOn this 1H chart for CHFJPY we can notice that the price has been moving in an up trend channel for a while now. Recently it dropped to test the up trend support. At this stage the price is forming a potential double bottom. Monitor it for a potential breakout.
Additional confluences:
- MACD can produce a bullish cross if the price starts going up to complete the Double bottom
- The 2 bottoms are re-bouncing from the 200 EMA
- If the price goes up, in can cross above the 20 and 50 EMAs. Monitor for a bullish cross
Double Bottom on EUR/USD @ H4This short-term double bottom chart pattern has formed on the H4 chart of EUR/USD following a clear downtrend. I will use this formation as a potential bullish entry. The two bottoms are marked on the chart. The neckline is marked with the upper yellow line. My potential entry level is at the cyan line. My potential take-profit level is at the green line. A stop-loss (not shown on the chart) will be set to the low of the breakout candle or to the low of the preceding candle should the breakout one appear mostly outside the pattern's borders. I will ignore short signals here.
BANK NIFTY:DOBLE BOTTOMOver the past few days, NSE:BANKNIFTY has been exhibiting a downtrend, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market. However, a notable development is the formation of a double bottom structure, which could potentially signal a reversal in the current trend.
The double bottom pattern is a bullish reversal pattern that typically occurs after a prolonged downtrend. It consists of two troughs or "bottoms" at approximately the same price level, separated by a peak or "neckline." In this case, traders are advised to observe the pattern for a potential breakout.
To initiate a trade based on this pattern, one should wait for a breakout and closing of a candle above the neckline. This breakout acts as a confirmation of the potential trend reversal. It is crucial to emphasize the importance of waiting for a candle close above the neckline to reduce the likelihood of a false signal.
The target for this trade is calculated by measuring the distance between the low of one bottom and the neckline. This distance is then projected upwards from the breakout point to estimate the potential upward move. Traders should keep in mind that the target is a theoretical projection and may be influenced by various market factors.
Additionally, it is common for the market to retest the breakout level after the initial breakout. Traders should be prepared for a retest and not be alarmed if the price revisits the neckline. The retest provides an opportunity to confirm the strength of the breakout and potentially add to the position.
Risk management is paramount in any trading strategy. Traders should determine their risk appetite and set a proper stop loss level. The stop loss should be placed below the second bottom or at a level that aligns with the trader's risk tolerance. This ensures that losses are controlled in case the trade does not unfold as anticipated.
In summary, the analysis suggests a potential opportunity for a bullish trade in Bank Nifty based on the double bottom pattern. However, traders should exercise caution, wait for a confirmed breakout, set realistic targets, and implement effective risk management to enhance the probability of a successful trade.
Breakout & Re-test of ~5.5 year Falling WedgeBitcoin Cash was in a falling wedge for nearly five and a half years before it broke out of it back in June of 2023. Presently, it is re-testing the top of a dashed-line wedge drawn from wick to wick and has failed to reach the top of the solid wedge drawn from the line chart.
Holding above the wedge could lead to an approx 5.25x move against Bitcoin from its current position at 0.0057 to TP 1 at 0.030 and an 11.75x move should it reach TP 2 at 0.067.
It's possible we could see a double-bottom with a slightly higher low around 0.0041 or 0.0040 if it re-tests the solid wedge's top over the next weeks or into March or June, before moving up towards targets.
Should a wedge re-test and double-bottom occur first, the possibility for already major gains vs. Bitcoin increases to 7.3-7.5x at TP 1 or 16.34-16.75x at TP 2.
EURUSD 4H potential Double bottomThe EURUSD on a 4H chart shows a drop down to a strong support range (Orange range) which aligns with the 0.618 Fib. Around those levels, the price started forming a potential double bottom.
For the pattern to be valid, the price needs to go up without dropping below the low points and produce an effective breakout above the neckline range ( Blue range )
Additional confluence: RSI is showing a Divergence
NZDUSD 30m Double bottomOn this chart for NZDUSD 30m you can notice that the price is forming a Double bottom. The bottoms are bouncing from a strong resistance range that has been created from multiple low points starting from the 14th/15th of December 2023 ( Zoom out the chart so that you can see them ).
Additional confluences:
- MACD Bull cross
- RSI was oversold at the time of the first bottom and now it's showing reversal in momentum