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Doublecalendar

Opened Mar29 Apr20 169P 177C double calendar on 3/13/18www.tradingview.com IV rank a little high on this max risk is the debit until the front month expiration debit 2.36 Theta 3.54 Underlying price when opened 173.20 Upper and Lower expected move 167.70 176.90 break evens 167 and 180 gives a little more room above With the break even points being clearly outside of the expected move (per implied volatilty which is often overstated anyway) this trade has a high probability of profit. I will close it before expiration no matter what. www.tradingview.com
NASDAQ:QQQ
by Tom1trader
Neutral double calendar Earnings 49P 56C mar23 mar29www.tradingview.com Trying out this strategy for earnings tomorrow, when sets up with good IV spread the crush should profit what is typically considered a bought spread. Direction is not an issue, only that the break-even points are outside of recent earnings moves. This setup goes as wide as possible without letting the belly of the profit/loss go below the trade expenses (commission and fees). This one usually moves so should settle in profit and the cost or max loss is minimal when closed before the short, front week expiration. The intention is to close as soon as the vol crush occurs unless movement is taking it more profitable at the moment. The main analysis involved is checking the last several earnings moves so that all or most of them are within the break evens of the setup. So it is a sort of trend analysis looking at the trends/history of earnings moves. This stocks options become reasonably liquid at earnings time so the fills in closing should not kill the trade. I have looked at several of these over the past few weeks and seems clear when good or bad trade. Now to place live trades and get the real learning (in the muscles) by doing. If these work out will post more with clearer entrance guidelines. Hard to find a better probability of profit or reward to risk ratio. Sunday night parameters: Stock price 52.27 debit of double calendar spread ~0.12 ($12 per contract) depending on fill Theta $3.60 break-even points (conservative, actually small profit) ~ 47.50 and 58.50 max loss $12 plus expenses projected (IV adjusted for post crush) belly of p/l return (zero price movement from earnings) ~ $4 max profit at the strikes of the legs: $43 at 49 strike and $53 at 56 strike
NYSE:ORCL
by Tom1trader
1
Open Short Dec15 Long Jan19 257P 263C Double Calendarwww.tradingview.com Been meaning to try one of these . . Debit 2.46 ($246.00) Theta 1.66 Delta 1.49 IV 10 IVR 12% Break-Even / Scratch 266.60 and 253.20 (13.40 profit range) SPY spot 259.97 Will set this to close at 10% -$25/contract (this is one) - If SPY sits as still as it has today will let it go to more profit Shorts are 23DTE and at that time with no move or volatility increase it would net $130 but will cover or adjust within 9-10 days. Even if it (ideally) sits still daily p/l will improve with closing at a lower risk time and redeploying the capitol.
AMEX:SPY
by Tom1trader