Momentarily Bullish AgainOnce the last theory busted it was a return to the drawing board. I am now postulating we are back in Cycle wave B which I thought had been completed as initially forecasted during the summer 2023 (high was end of July). Not only was 4607 busted a few days back, it was blown out of the water today. What does this mean? With Cycle wave B now being larger than anticipated, Cycle wave C will likely last well through the 1st or even 2nd quarter of 2025. This likely indicates something worse than I initially forecasted will happen. The event or events will devastate economies enough to likely see the S&P 500 index lose close to half its value from the pending top. China taking Taiwan and temporarily controlling a majority of the microchips and production facilities will hold the world hostage. If a larger scale war breaks out, it will likely end or the tide will turn by 2025. I am still very bullish long-term, but will be bearish again around the end of this month.
Here are the re-mapped modified wave counts
CYCLE B
PRIMARY A
INTERMEDIATE 1-2
INTERMEDIATE 3-4
INTERMEDIATE 5
PRIMARY B
PRIMARY C (so far)
What levels are the models forecasting
The levels to the right of the main chart are the historical quartiles for Cycle wave B end points. The 3 largest retracements are in red as 2 of them went beyond 100% (which is 4818 and would be a new all-time high). The levels to the left are the same historical data as it relates to movement extensions for the possible end point of Primary wave C inside of Cycle wave B.
Models for Cycle B end:
2040 hours to 2059 ( this seems a little quick if Minor wave 3 just finished or is wrapping up). The lower white box is 4740-4755. The higher white box is 4790-4818. I figure we have at least a week left of this thing, maybe through end of year depending what Minor 4 does. 2,091 hours is next Friday and is what I stretched the top box out to.
Models for Primary C in Cycle B end:
Top yellow box is 4910-4920 for market top price. Middle yellow box is 4870-4880. Lower yellow box is 4790-4818. The duration models are all over the place. I will ignore the 2 largest values because they are the lengths of Primary wave A (1442 hours), and Primary wave B (1358). As I have mentioned before, common ratios of waves A to B and to C are 1:1, 1:2, 1:3, 1:4 (and those inverses) when the durations are very small (a few hours long) for micro wave sets. We are dealing with a macro wave in the current instance. Third strongest agreement is 679 hours which is half of Primary wave B's length which will also be ignored. After discounting the common ratios, the strongest agreement is at 220-250 hours, secondary agreement is 480-490, third is 270-290, fourth at 340-350. 232 hours aligns with the end of the lower white box which I assess to be too quick. 290 hours aligns with December 28th. I have placed the yellow boxes at 270-290 hours which straddles the holidays.
Additional Calculations for Primary wave C:
Primary wave B (1358 hours) was a slightly shorter duration than Primary wave A (1442). This means wave A's duration was 1.0619 times larger. I have sought similar situations when A is 1-1.11 times greater than wave B to understand potential characteristics of our current Primary wave C. Primary wave C is shorter 85.7% of the time. Based on these historics and applying prior ratios to the current conditions for Primary waves A and B, Primary wave C could last between 262-595 hours on the low end, and 711-830 hours on the high end. The market top has a low-end target between 4715-4794, a median at 4878, and high-end at 5096-5496.
Based on the move back to Cycle wave B, the current data suggests the next market top could occur before the end of the year and we may fall just shy of 4818. The current setup reminds me of 2000-2009 but on a shorter scale duration wise. The market topped in March of 2000, found a bottom in October 2002 (which I call the end of wave A), moved above the prior market top by October 2007 (end of wave B), and the final wave C and market bottom was March of 2009. I see the similar thing playing out between January 2022-somewhere in early 2025.
I will produce an additional analysis based on Minor wave 3 and Minor wave 4 inside of Primary wave C by tomorrow at the latest.
