Just enough to give bulls hopeWave C has retraced more than I was expecting, but it is just near the optimal range where Bulls are back into euphoria and Bears are afraid to short.
I am expecting to see a downward push soon, otherwise I have my clear invalidation level for this scenario. My overall downward target for this remains the peak made in COVID rally which i have shown in my previous weekly wave count of DOW.
DOW
Why does hegemony andsupremacy work? Trumpian economics ushers…Why does hegemony and supremacy work? Trumpian economics ushers The Neo Titanic era of late-stage capitalism.
Blessings. Good? I’m just easing back into the site myself.
An easy basic plain chart for your head tops!! you’re welcome.
entered the premarket with the hands-off approach and a wide stop.
Targeting 250 points of the US 3 to close out and historic week
I may also use a scalping strategy between the LSE and NYE opens
The pips are falling out of the sky. The bulls 🦬can smell the blood. Even the bears 🐻 like me can't resist the fresh meat in the woods tonight.
As always on the menu is the working class, as the new deconstructionists position their chairs on the reality TV show Neo-Titanic.
It’s a good year to get rich.
DOW has a full Bull year ahead based on PRESIDENT'S CHEATSHEETDow Jones (DJI) has started the year on a positive note and that is anything but a coincidence. On this 1W chart you can see Dow's price action since the early 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis.
That happened to be Obama's 1st year of Presidency. As you can see, 2009 was an incredibly bullish year with the index rising more than +60% from the year's bottom.
Four years later in 2013, which was the 1st year of Obama's 2nd term in office, Dow had again a strong year, rising by +25% (naturally the previous term was more aggressive as the market had tremendous upside potential to recover from one of the worst economic crises in history).
Moving forward again 4 years (2017), we can see yet another bullish (+35%) 1st year of Presidency, this time Trump's first term.
Biden also had his fair share of bullish 1st year of Presidency in 2021 (+23%).
The pattern is evident and shows the euphoria the market has when the U.S. President assumes his duties on his 1st year. It also shows that (excluding as mentioned 2009, which was natural to see a stronger recovery) on average it is fair to expect a price increase during the 1st year of around +25% to +30%.
In fact, the price action that led to the current 1st year of Presidency that has just started (Trump's 2nd term), is very similar to the one that preceded Obama's 2nd term (2013). Both formed a Channel Up after the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) was tested and held. That pattern pushed the price higher until the 1st year of Presidency, that found the index on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Even the 1W MACD sequences that preceded this, are similar between the two fractals.
As a result, investors have a strong reason to be bullish in 2025 and if pattern achieves the bear minimum of 2021 (+23%), we can expect to see 51000 by the end of the year.
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DOW JONES: Crossed above the monthly Channel Down. Buy signal.Dow Jones turned bullish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.829, MACD = -79.310, ADX = 34.732) as it crossed over the Channel Down that is the bearish wave of the long term bullish trend. The 1W MA50 held and we have to go back to October 30th 2023 to find the last time that the index was under it. If the 1W RSI crosses above the MA trendline, we will confirm that most likely we are going to have a November 6th 2023 type of bullish breakout. The major rallies of the past years have been at least +20%. Buy and TP = 50,500.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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US30 Analysis: Breakout Confirmed with Possible Correction AheadUS30 Technical Analysis
The price has broken the previous resistance level at 43,350, as mentioned earlier, and has reached all bullish targets.
Now, a price correction is expected, potentially dropping to 40,450 or 43,350, before pushing upward toward 43,760.
To confirm a bearish trend, the price must break below 43,350 by closing a 1-hour candle, which could lead to a move toward 43,210. Falling below this level would signal further bearish momentum.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 43,440
Resistance Levels: 43,760, 43,900, 44,270
Support Levels: 43,350, 43,210, 42,920
previous idea:
DOW JONES Falling Wedge to break upwards soon.Dow Jones is trading inside a Falling Wedge.
Right now it is on the MA50 (4h) after rising on a bullish wave to the pattern's top.
The pattern is very close to be completed and Falling Wedges tend to break to the upside once completed.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the next pull back.
Targets:
1. 43500 (under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on higher lows, i.e. a bullish extension since December 18th. Sign that a bullish break out is ahead.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES: contact with the 4 month Support Zone. Strong hold.Dow Jones approached the oversold limit today on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.566, MACD = -404.260, ADX = 33.712) as it hit the S1 Zone, which is in effect since late September 2024. The last test of this Zone (November 4th 2024) also coincided with the 4H RSI getting oversold (under 30.000) and the price was also trading inside a Channel Down. By early next week, we expect the index to initiate a similar rebound, aiming at the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 44,300).
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DOW JONES The RSI shows the bottom is in.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 1-year Channel Up and is on a Bearish Leg since the December 05 2024 High. The price has found support so far 4 times on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and is consolidating.
This is most likely a bottom formation as the 4H RSI is posting a Bullish Divergence similar to the 3 previous times in 2024 when the price broke below the 4H MA200. Technically once the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, we should a confirmed Bullish Leg, which is what happened on all 3 occasions.
The minimum Target is Resistance 1 at 45000. Note that as long as the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) holds, the bullish trend will continue to be favored.
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2025 is a Bull Year I would like to start the year with what I expect if we talk about the crypto market - a bull market until September 2025
If we talk about the stock market - bullish or flat as it was in 2005 and 2015.
If we take statistics in years that end in the number 5 (1895, 1905, 1915, 1925, 1935, 1945, 1955, 1965, 1975, 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005, 2015) - we see bull markets.
Below, I have shown weekly charts of each year ending in the number 5.
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
Here, we saw that all years are bullish, but 2005 and 2015 were reaccumulation.
Positive Scenarios for 2025
Soft monetary policy: If the Federal Reserve keeps rates at levels that support credit growth and capital availability, it will support the corporate sector and business expansion.
Technological breakthrough: A recovery in investment in artificial intelligence, green energy and biotechnology could create new growth drivers for the Dow Jones.
Sustainable global development: If geopolitical tensions diminish and international trade relations stabilize, the global economy will gain new momentum, reflected in the index's growth.
Negative Scenarios for 2025
Tight monetary policy: A sharp rise in interest rates could reduce the availability of capital, which could slow economic growth and pressure corporate profits.
Geopolitical instability: Increased conflict or trade wars between major economies could lead to declining investor confidence and capital outflows from the market.
Declining technological development: If leading sectors such as technology and green energy do not show the expected growth, it could affect market expectations and valuations.
Conclusion
Analyzing the history of the Dow Jones, years ending in 5 represent unique periods of growth and recovery. Against the backdrop of current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, 2025 could be a year of significant opportunity.
The optimistic scenario is based on continued loose monetary policy, innovation, and stabilization of global relations. However, the risks associated with tight monetary policy and global instability require caution.
For investors, 2025 could be a year of essential choices. Focus on long-term trends, analyze macroeconomic indicators, and diversify your portfolio. History shows that even in times of uncertainty, the market has the potential to grow.
And for years that end in number 7 according to bearish statistics, I will write about this in 2027
Best regards EXCAVO
DOW JONES giving a buy opportunity on this correction.Dow Jones / US30 pulled back today and remains under its 1day MA50 for 20 days straight.
Despite this weakness, this is technically a bottom formation of the Channel Up.
As long as the 1day MA200 holds, the long term trend is bullish.
Technically, it is similar with the Channel's first correction, which also pulled back by almost -7%.
The 1day RSI is printing the same bullish divergence as then, which cause the price to rebound immediately and hit Resistance A.
Buy and target 45000.
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Phathom Pharmaceuticals ($PHAT ): High-Growth Potential I spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more.
Phathom Pharmaceuticals ( NASDAQ:PHAT ): High-Growth Potential in Biopharmaceuticals
Trade Setup:
- Entry Price: $7.53 (Activated)
- Stop-Loss: $5.67
- Take-Profit Targets:
- TP1: $22.00
- TP2: $41.80
Company Overview:
Phathom Pharmaceuticals ( NASDAQ:PHAT ) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing novel treatments for gastrointestinal diseases. With a pipeline of promising drugs, NASDAQ:PHAT is gaining attention as a high-potential player in its sector.
Recent FDA approvals and upcoming clinical trial data releases have positioned the company for significant upside. These developments could catalyze rapid stock price appreciation in the coming months.
Earnings Reports:
- In its most recent quarter, NASDAQ:PHAT reported revenues of $12.3 million, driven by early sales from its newly approved drug for acid-related conditions.
- Operating losses narrowed compared to previous quarters, reflecting disciplined cost management.
Valuation Metrics:
- Market Cap: $500 million, indicating a small-cap stock with room for growth.
- Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: 4.1, suggesting moderate undervaluation compared to industry averages.
Market News:
- Phathom recently announced successful Phase III trial results for another key drug in its pipeline, expected to drive future revenue growth.
- The company is expanding its distribution partnerships, aiming to broaden its market reach.
Technical Analysis (Daily Timeframe):
- Current Price: $7.53
- Moving Averages:
- 50-Day SMA: $6.80
- 200-Day SMA: $7.00
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 55, signalling neutral momentum with room for further upside.
- Support and Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Support: $7.00
- Resistance: $9.00
The stock has activated the entry at $7.53, with strong support at $7.00. A breakout above $9.00 could set the stage for rapid movement toward TP1 at $22.00 and TP2 at $41.80.
Risk Management:
The stop-loss at $5.67 limits downside risk to approximately 25%, while the first take-profit target at $22.00 offers a **192% gain**, and TP2 provides a massive **455% return**, making this an attractive trade for long-term investors.
Key Takeaways:
- NASDAQ:PHAT is a high-risk, high-reward opportunity in the biotech sector, driven by a strong pipeline and recent FDA approvals.
- The trade setup offers an excellent risk-to-reward ratio, aligning with the stock’s growth potential.
- Ideal for investors seeking exposure to a rapidly developing biopharmaceutical company.
When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, We’ll Brave It All!
DOW JONES Bullish accumulation below the 1D MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 18 High. Right now the price is consolidating between its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). At the same time, the 1D RSI breached the oversold barrier (30.00) and rebounded.
This trading sequence has presented the most efficient buy opportunity since April 19 2024 and the even though all Bullish Legs that followed have been a little over +8.00%, the weakest one has been +7.63%. As a result, our current Bullish Leg Target of 45235 is formulated out of that minimum.
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DOW JONES SCENARIOSHello
for DJ is now following its uptrend corridor but when it breaks down this red corridor it will at least run to that midline of the yellow corridor, so in this case if this scenario wont happend you can guide yourself by keeping eys on my drawings on my chart.
NB: just be simple
DOW JONES: Ignore the pullback, this is a new bullish wave.Dow Jones turned bearish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.280, MACD = -138.420, ADX = 33.278) as it failed to hold the 4H MA50 as support today and crossed under it. The 1D MA100 is coming in as the next level of support, which formed the Dec 18th-19th low. According to the 4H MACD, the index formed during those 2 days a bottom similar to of August 5th. As long as the 1D MA100 holds, it is more likely to see a bounce above the 4H MA50 again like August 13th. Our goal is a wave, so we're targeting the R1 level (TP = 45,000).
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DOW JONES What signals the top of this Cycle?Dow Jones (DJI) has been on a highly systematic pattern ever since the 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis and this chart on the 3W time-frame depicts very accurately the symmetrical nature of the Cycles that the index is going through in the past 15 years.
As you see, ever since the October 2011 bounce on both the 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 3W MA200 (orange trend-line), Dow started a hyper aggressive Bull Cycle, which after making a Top on each phase, it broke below the 3W MA50 to become a buy opportunity again but has never yet broken below the 3W MA200.
So far we have completed three such phases and we are currently on the 4th. In the three that have already been completed, the Top of the Phase was signaled by the RSI. At a certain point that it broke above the 70.00 overbought barrier, it started a Channel Down comprised of 4 legs (a through d). On the (d) leg, it gave a signal that Dow had (or is very close to) topped. That was the ultimate long-term Sell Signal. Similarly, when the index broke below its MA50 and the RSI double bottomed, it has been the ultimate signal to buy.
Right now it appears that the RSI has completed Leg (a) and is starting the rise to Leg (b) of its newly emerged Channel Down. That means that the market has around another 12 months before it Tops again.
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DOW JONES: 5 month Channel Up bottomed and 1D MA100 hit. BullishDow Jones turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.675, MACD = -65.830, ADX = 38.532) after yesterday's sharp drop due to the Fed announcing an outlook shift to 2 rate cuts in 2025 from 4 previously. Technically though that fall presents a unique long term buy opportunity as despite crossing under the 1D MA50, it managed to hit the 1D MA100 for the first time since Aug 8th while touching the bottom of the 5 month Channel Up. Today the price is showing the first signs of rebounding. The 1D RSI rebounding from below 30.000 (oversold) is also a great bullish indicator. The drop that resembles most December's is the first bearish wave of the Channel (July-August). When it recovered, the rebound hit the R1 level at first and that is our target (TP = 45,000).
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Dow Plummets 1,100 Points Amid Fed’s Hawkish GuidanceMarket Reacts to Limited Rate Cut Projections and Elevated Economic Uncertainty
Dow Drops 1,100 Points in Turbulent Session After Fed Announcement
Investors rushed to reduce exposure to risk assets on Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell signaled a shift in the central bank's outlook for 2025.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged over 1,100 points following the Fed’s anticipated 25-basis-point interest rate cut and its updated forward guidance. While the rate cut was expected, the announcement that only two cuts are projected for 2024 rattled investors. Powell’s message marked the end of an extended period of monetary easing, further weighing on market sentiment.
This marked the Dow’s tenth consecutive losing session, a streak not seen since 1974, when the index endured eleven straight losses.
Technical Analysis
The Dow's price dropped more than 4.5% ahead of Powell's speech, maintaining a bearish momentum. Stability below the pivot point of 42,590 suggests further downside potential, while a close above this level could indicate a reversal.
Today, the U.S. GDP release will be a key driver of market movement:
If the GDP comes in below 2.8%, it may support a bullish move toward 42,770 and possibly 42,900.
If the GDP exceeds 2.8%, bearish momentum could drive the index toward 42,380 or even as low as 41,120.
Key Levels
Pivot Point: 42,590
Resistance Levels: 42,770, 42,900, 43,190
Support Levels: 42,380, 42,150, 41,970
Trend Outlook
Bullish Momentum: If the price stabilizes above 42,590.
Bearish Momentum: Likely to persist with stability below 42,590.
US30: Bearish Momentum with CPI-Driven VolatilityTechnical Analysis
The price dropped about more than 500 points as we mentioned previously, and is still under bearish momentum because already broken the bearish correction which is 44410.
So as long as trade is below 44270 and 44410 it will drop to touch 43900, on the other hand, we have a CPI effect Today that will be expected with more than the previous result, in this case, will support the bearish movement for indices, especially realizing more than 2.7%.
due to the high volatility, we have a bullish correction till 44300 or 44410.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 44270
Resistance Levels: 44410, 44590, 44750
Support Levels: 43900, 43760, 43490
Trend Outlook:
Bearish Momentum
previous idea:
DOW JONES 13-year pattern that never failed eyes $48000.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us the best bullish break-out signal exactly 1 year ago (December 13 2023, see chart below), as our buy entry at 36577 hit our 42900 long-term Target last October:
At that time we made a clear point why that rally 'shouldn't surprise you' and it is because of this pattern's consistency for so many years. This 1W time-frame chart shows the cyclical behavior of the index, which peaks (Sine Wave top), then pulls back and starts forming a Rising Wedge (Sine Wave bottom) and when it breaks above the Rising Wedge, is where it flashed the bullish break-out signal we got a year ago.
As you can see it then starts a gradual rise on the BB20 and completes the Cycle again (Sine Wave top) after roughly a +47% rally. The title mentions that this pattern 'never failed', practically it only broke during the COVID flash crash, which was a non-technical event than occurs once every 100 years. As you can see even the 1W MACD sequences between the cyclical patterns are identical.
As a result, our Target towards the Sine Wave peak is 48000. If this is achieved in Q2 2025, based on Dow's current Channel Up (dashed), then we expect the index to remain on those high levels but turn more neutral sideways towards the end of 2025 and then eventual start of the new Bear Phase.
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