DOW JONES Best buy opportunity in the last 7 months.Dow Jones (DJI) hit the bottom of the long-term Channel Up pattern by completing leg (e). This is a similar structure to the (a) - (e) sequence that bottomed on March 15. Technically this is the best buy opportunity on the index in the last 7 months. On top of that, the 1D RSI is on Higher Lows during the prices (d) - (e) wave, showcasing a huge Bullish Divergence, the first such since February 24 2022! We can't ignore however the potential 1D Death Cross formation and any bullish approach has to be adjusted short-term.
As for the target, the March rally breached marginally above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, therefore giving us the framework to target 35000 (Resistance 1 + 0.786 Fib). Be careful, as failure and/ or rejection on the 34150 October 17 High, will be a bearish signal, aiming at a Lower Low, potentially near Support 2.
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DOW
DOW JONES Time to buy the dip again.Dow Jones / US30 reached our desired buy level based on our last idea (chart at the bottom), which is exactly at the bottom of the 11 month Channel Up.
It kept the 1week MA200 intact once again (has been since October 2022), so that maintains the long term trend bullish.
The shorter pattern is a Bearish Megaphone and as mentioned previously, our target is for the time being and until a break out takes place, inside this pattern.
Target 33600, which is under the 1week MA50, under which all of October's candles have closed.
Previous chart:
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 31/10/2023In the higher time frame, we are working on a corrective move down. The primary scenario is now suggesting that this happens as an ABC. The five waves down from the high might also indicate a bearish flat scenario. In the lower time frame, the final wave ((v)) of wave 5 of wave A looks incomplete.
SPY (Stocks) Should See a Nice Bounce This WeekTraders,
As mentioned in several of my previous posts and last video, SPY has now reached its downside target. This level at 410 provides strong support and correlates with our level of support on the RSI. I expect this week to be an up week for the S&P 500 and the stock market in general.
Best,
Stew
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 30/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)In the higher time frame, we are working on a corrective move down. The primary scenario is now suggesting that this happens as an ABC. The five waves down from the high might also indicate a bearish flat scenario. In the lower time frame, the final wave ((v)) of wave 5 of wave A looks incomplete.
SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter RodeoWhether you want to look at these markets like an American football game or the National Finals Rodeo/Calgary Stampede bull riding, this final quarter of the year is set up to be quite the fireworks show.
The new JP Morgan fund options collar is illustrated on the chart, but let's put it into text:
JPM is the seller of 41,000 calls with a strike of 4,515
JPM is the buyer of 41,000 puts with a strike of 4,055
JPM is the seller of 41,000 puts with a strike of 3,420
Expiry is December 29, 2023.
So if you believe that JP Morgan, the pinnacle systemically important bank in the United States, is the market maker, the crude logic is that the bank is incentivized to:
1. Keep price away from 4,515
2. Drive price towards/under 4,055
3. Keep price away from 3,420
Now, this is cool, but last quarter was an identical setup at similar strikes, and JP Morgan paid the calls it sold at 4,600~ and its own puts at 4,200 expired worthless.
A collar from a big fund is just a position and you should always remember the banks have the money to hedge, and hedge, and overhedge.
And their overhedges, when combining with the psychological effect on both retail and fund-level market participants, can produce greater profits than the simple cashing in of their ostensible public positions.
The problem for SPX and equities bulls right now is that if a new all time high was to be set, we should have bounced to start October. The meaning of this is that filling in the range of the giant June uppy candle is actually bearish.
Because it's fundamentally bearish, we have no reason to believe that downside pivots are not the target. Ergo, we have no reason to justify long trades as more than a single-or-intraday scalp until a significant low is taken.
And that low should involve the May 4,062.25 target.
A raid below that, a consolidation above 4,000, a manipulation raid slightly under 4,000 to eat stops, and then a rip back to take out "resistance" at the 4,634 double top before the end of the year AND possible run the all time high, is absolutely the trade thesis.
A raid on 4,062 happens to put JPM's long puts directly in the money and they'll be free to exit with profit.
Then, the bank can pay or mitigate the buyers of its 4,515 calls before expiry, all while making bears hate their life.
If this all plays out as anticipated, 2024 will be significantly dark clouds. Always keep in mind that 2023 opened in a straight line uppy, and year candles VERY rarely repeat their patterns twice.
What is "the bear thesis" really predicated on? It's not the Federal Reserve or such and such recession.
It's the situation in Mainland China. There's a total worldwide media blackout on what's going on inside China.
But how much longer can the Chinese Communist Party and the boundless and eternal sins of organ harvesting Falun Dafa's 100 million students at the hands of Jiang Zemin since July 20, 1999 continue forward?
The Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has claimed millions and millions of lives inside the Mainland, and that's before the catastrophes from the Party's corrupt officials itself, and all the flooding and economic damage.
In short, the CCP will soon fall before our very eyes, and everything will change.
2024 Presidential Election theatre in the United States won't really matter.
If you want to have a bright future and happiness, you need to turn off the television, turn off the radio, turn off YouTube, get off TikTok, and go outside and be in your community in real life.
You need to cut the brainwashing and start valuing virtue again, start living like humans again, start thinking like a human again.
Heaven is watching to see who can stand against the Red Demon of the Chinese Communist Party's international "United Front" parasite campaigns.
Whoever can't is considered the worst kind of loser.
But for now, fade the so-called "bottom" at 4,250 and strongly consider buying 3,985.
Just make sure you dump it, dump it again, and cash out at 4,700 or 4,800.
The happy days humans dream of not only never existed, but are forever gone. Everything is about to become stringently serious.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 26/10/2023We believe we are doing a WXY structure in the higher time frame and we are currently working on the wave X up. The primary scenario suggests a wxy structure for the wave X which is missing one more swing up. If we make another low, then the WXY becomes an ABC structure.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 25/10/2023We believe we are doing a WXY structure in the higher time frame and we are currently working on the wave X up. The primary scenario suggests a wxy structure for the wave X which is missing one more swing up. If we make another low, then the WXY becomes an ABC structure.
DOW JONES: Support Zone intact. Buyers are favored short term.Dow Jones is volatile on the 4H timeframe (RSI = 37.485, MACD = -170.620, ADX = 29.943) after almost testing the S1 level (32,813) yesterday but following a 4H MACD Bullish Cross formation, it is a low risk buy opportunity. The rejection of the previous rise took place on the 4H MA200, so that is our target again. Buy and TP = 33,700.
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DOW JONES The bottom isn't in yet.Dow Jones may be trading inside a long term Channel Up but the medium term pattern is a Bearish Megaphone.
The last Bottom of the Channel Up was closer to the 1week MA200, this time the MA level is even closer, a strong candidate for a bottom.
The previous correction leg made a -10.15% extension, a new one of this size meets almost perfectly the bottom of the Channel Up and a little over the 1week MA200.
Sell to 32400 then reverse to buying and target 33600 (1week MA50).
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 20/10/2023We believe we are doing a WXY structure in the higher time frame and we are currently working on the wave X up. The primary scenario suggests a wxy structure for the wave X which is missing one more swing up. An abc structure for the wave X is also still possible.
DOW JONES: Strong short term buy signalDow Jones is on a range with the 1H timeframe neutral (RSI = 46.672, MACD = -41.790, ADX = 29.739), giving us an opportunity to buy the decline of the last three days and target the 1D MA50 (TP = 34,000). Technically this consolidation, even on 1D RSI structure which is inside a Rectangle, mimics early September. The medium term trend remains bearish inside a Bearish Megaphone but the long term bullish inside a Channel Up.
See how well our prior idea has worked:
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DOW JONES Inverse Head and Shoulders signals for a new buyDow Jones (DJI) has completed an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern and this week's pull-back, caused by a rejection on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), may be the last before it starts rising to a new Higher High. We are taking this opportunity to buy for the short-term and target the top of the dashed Channel at 34200. The IH&S can complete its long-term target on the 2.0 Fibonacci level (35000) after it breaks above the Lower Highs trendline.
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 19/10/2023We believe we are doing a WXY structure in the higher time frame and we are currently working on the wave X up. The primary scenario suggests a wxy structure for the wave X which is missing one more swing up. An abc structure for the wave X is also still possible.
DOW JONES On the verge of a new bullish break out.Dow Jones is testing the MA200 (4h) today, after holding the MA50 (4h), extending the rebound that was generated at the bottom of the Channel Up.
This is so far replicating to a good extend, the March 15th rebound-bullish leg.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the MA200 (4h) break out.
Targets:
1. 34850 (Falling Resistance).
Tips:
1. The MACD On the (1d) time frame is past a strong Buy Cross, much like March 22nd. It shows that we are on the same level as when that bullish leg tested the MA200 (4h).
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 16/10/2023 (+ Higher TF)The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We had a strong reaction from the reversal areas. However, in the lower time frame, we are missing one more swing up to identify an impulse. If we do not get the additional swing up, we probably take out the low as an impulsive fifth wave down.
DOW JONES is in an expansion Cycle and people still shorting it!Dow Jones on the 3M chart gives you the clearest picture you can get.
Every 10-15 years it consolidates inside a Megaphone (fundamental reasons like war, recession etc) and then an expansion phase follows.
In the 90s this expansion phase was extended due to the uprecedented boom of Dotcom.
While the index is on its expansion phase, the RSI trades inside a Falling Wedge, which warns of the loss in bullish strength and eventually leads to the new Megaphone.
Right now it is obvious that we are in an expansion phase. Needless to say it will last for as long as the MA50 holds.
The real question is will it be short like in the 1950s or extended like in mid 1980s-90s?
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 13/10/2023The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming and we take out the low, the secondary scenario with an additional impulse down as wave ((v)) comes into play.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 12/10/2023The primary expectation is that wave ((c)) of wave 2 is finished. We are in the areas from where we can expect a reversal. If the reversal is not coming and we take out the low, the secondary scenario with an additional impulse down as wave ((v)) comes into play.