DOW
DOW JONES Can go to 36000 before is starts another correction.Dow Jones / US30 us extending the rise inside the 4 month Channel Up, supported by the 4hour MA50.
It has already crossed over Resistance A (35525) and as long as the 4hour MA50 holds, it can even break above Resistance B and make a Higher High inside the 36000 - 36100 range.
Sell when the price crosses under the 4hour MA50 and target the 4hour MA200.
An alternative target to close sell positions can be when the 4hour RSI gets oversold under 30.00.
Previous chart:
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US30 DOW JONESTRADE IDEA: US30 4H been a while looking at indice market,but today US30 caught my eye as the market strongly rejected at weekly price level 35678.81 giving us those strong bearish candlesticks all the way till 35217.91 then we had a bearish correction,as i prepare to look for selling opportunities just below my monthly resistance level 35480.23 where we can see candlestick rejection preparing to melt looking forward to a new structure formation.
Dow Jones US30 longDow has defended 30% retracement and closedabove 0.61 Fib
A break above 34662 will drive Dow to 35634 . A successfull Break above 37000(High 2022) will be the the start of the 2nd phase of the bulltrend to reach 42491
The Dow Jones closed more than 209 points higher on Monday, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq added 0.2% each, as investors awaited the US consumer and producer inflation reports later this week and braced for the start of the second quarter earnings season. The upcoming inflation report is expected to offer additional evidence regarding inflationary pressures and provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future actions. Traders are currently pricing in a nearly 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, but the odds for another quarter point hike later in the year have been swinging, currently standing at 22% for September and 33% for November. Healthcare shares were among top performers of the session including Amgen (+2.5%). Also, Inter (+2.8%), Honeywell (+2.2%) and Home Depot (2.5%) outperformed while mega cap shares dragged as Apple (-1.1%), Tesla (-1.7%), Microsoft (-1.6%), Alphabet (-2.5%) and Amazon (-2%) ended in the red.
US Consumer Credit Misses Forecasts, Lowest Since 2020
Total consumer credit in the US increased by $7.24 billion in May of 2023, following a downwardly revised $20.32 billion rise in the previous month and well below market expectations of a $20.25 billion rise. It was the smallest monthly gain in consumer credit since November of 2020, as revolving credit, like credit cards, growth slowed to $8.49 billion (or +8.2 percent on annual basis), compared to an upwardly revised $14.16 billion rise in the prior month. Non Revolving credit, typically auto and student loans, fell by $1.25 billion ( or -0.4 percent), following a downwardly revised $6.15 billion gain in the prior month
Trend Bullish
Strategy Long Bullish
Trading week recap for NASDAQ, DOW, DAX & FTSE (29/07/2023)Let's look back at the past trading week and learn from it. What went well? What could be better?
This is an experiment. Educational content to become a good waver. If you like this video, please let me know by commenting. Any suggestions? Please let me know.
DOW JONES Sell signal at the top of the Channel Up.Dow Jones reached the top of the 4 month Channel Up today just after crossing above Resistance (1).
The MA50 (1d) is the first Support of this pattern and has been untouched since July 10th.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 34450 (expected course of the MA50 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is has formed a top pattern, same as April 13th and June 15th.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Hyperinflation Is Coming - + BRICS - CPI - UFL WAY-MAP
Similarities between Japan 1989 & Weimar Germany 1923 could not be more clear.
People waiting for the "recession" clueless to the break down of the USD dollar system.
--MISCONCEPTIONS--
But the 10Y - 2Y yield!, did you adjust that indicator for the QE / debasement? probably not like every single other economist that refuse to acknowledge Quantitative Easing is real why? simple it keeps their assets rising self fulfilling prophecy.
But inflation is coming down! Hyperinflation is solved!, did you know before the final vertical hyperinflation event inflation actually fell in Weimar Germany to zero?
But the world purchases US debt because the US always pays its debt!,
ok great
32.5 Trillion in US National Debt.
192.5 Trillion in US Unfunded Liabilities.
US CPI going vertical & FRED raising rates in panic as the base GDP growth cannot fund this debt how do you think they are going to afford it?.
That's right! they're going to be forced to print hundreds of trillions of dollars. Well done you have purchased debt of a currency on the brink of hyperinflation.
--REALITY--
CPI both Weimar Germany & USA are going up way way too fast
Government debt in both time periods are going vertical, what did Weimar Germany do to solve this? they debased their currency to pay the debt & interest.
BRICS + Will continue their move creating a multi polar world economy and majority of countries will go with China & Russia due to their near zero debt to gdp.
Japan owning the most US debt forced to raise rates to deal with local inflation and their own bonds have no option but to talk with Russia & China to save their country or they will go under with the USA its just math.
USA has one option
1.Print 100's of trillions to stop safety nets failing + explosion in unemployment & introduce a new currency like Germany did at a 1:10 ratio.
2. Federal Reserve now purchased all your assets, destroyed your currency, forced you to lose your value 1:10 1:100. Welcome to Socialism.
-- Final --
Between 1913 and December 1923, retail prices increased by about 1 trillion, with inflation accelerating in 1922-1923. After World War I, the Versailles Treaty of 1919 condemned defeated Germany to pay reparations of a disproportionate amount (equivalent to two years of its pre-war GDP). The State financed these payments by creating money, which led to a self-sustaining rise in prices: as prices rose faster and faster, people sought to buy right away for fear of having to pay more later. This flight from money led to hyperinflation: prices rose faster and faster, and increased by 1 trillion between 1913 and December 1923. Gradually, the Reichsmark lost its functions as money, as evidenced by women burning banknotes to keep warm since they were worth less than wood logs. On 15 November 1923, a monetary reform broke the inflationary spiral by replacing the Reichsmark by the Rentenmark, on the basis of 1 Rentenmark for 1 trillion Reichsmark. This hyperinflation crisis also saw the rise of mass unemployment and extremist movements, in particular the Nazi Party of Adolf Hitler, which failed its attempted coup on 8-9 November 1923 in Munich.
-- Final --
-This started with global emergency QE in 2008 now 2023 15 years period.
--USA abandoned the gold backing of its currency in 1971.
USA is out of time and out of options based on history.
-Weimar Germany Started printing in 1913 failed currency 1923 10 years period.
--Weimar Germany abandoned the gold backing of its currency in 1914.
How to counter trade this? just see where the smart money flocked to in Weimar Germany.
"Investors want a spot Blackrock ETF to manipulate retail traders, no people investors want a secure fast way out of the system collapsing before your eyes".
Dow Jones Index (US30) Technical Outlook Ahead of FED
US30 Index is currently trading on a key daily structure resistance.
The market is consolidating on 4H time frame,
forming a head and shoulders pattern.
If the price breaks and closes below its neckline (35330 level),
I will expect a bearish continuation, at least to a support line of an expanding wedge pattern.
Bearish breakout of the support of the wedge, will push the Index even lower.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of the underlined blue structure on a daily will be a strong
bullish signal.
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DOW JONES: Technical pull-back possible inside the Channel Up.Dow Jones is highly overbought on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 74.321, MACD = 411.840, ADX = 51.669) and coupled with the price approaching R1 (35,530) and R2 (35,885), which form a HH Rejection Zone, the probability of a technical pull-back strengthens.
HH bullish legs inside the Channel Up get rejected after reaching a +6% rise, so even on that parameter, Dow is close. The 1D RSI is also almost on the HH trendline. Consequently we are going short, targeting the 1D MA50 (TP = 34,400).
Prior idea:
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis Higher Timeframe (22/07/2023)The EW count shows an ending upward structure. However, depending on what we get next week, alternative EW counts are possible. Investors should wait for the pullback to buy again. Now we are rather in area to take profit. Traders should analyze the lower timeframe.
Trading week recap for NASDAQ, DOW, DAX & FTSE (22/07/2023)Let's look back at the past trading week and learn from it. What went well? What could be better?
This is an experiment. Educational content to become a good waver. If you like this video, please let me know by commenting. Any suggestions? Please let me know.
US30 ShortThe analysis aims to highlight the potential downside risks and factors that could contribute to a decline in the market during this period.
Market Overvaluation:
One of the primary concerns supporting the bearish stance is the perceived overvaluation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Throughout the past few quarters, the market has witnessed an extended rally, leading to inflated asset prices. This has created a situation where the market might be due for a correction or even a more significant reversal.
Economic Uncertainty:
The global economic landscape may contribute to downward pressure on the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the specified range. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and geopolitical events could create uncertainty in the markets, prompting investors to adopt a risk-off approach and exit long positions.
Inflationary Pressures:
Persistently rising inflation can exert negative pressure on the stock market. A surge in inflation can lead to concerns about potential interest rate hikes by central banks, which might dampen investor sentiment and drive market participants towards safer assets.
Technical Indicators:
Analyzing technical indicators can further support the bearish outlook. For example, if we observe declining volume alongside declining prices, it may signal a lack of conviction from buyers and potential weakness in the market.
Sector-Specific Weakness:
Within the Dow Jones Industrial Average, certain sectors might exhibit weakness, leading to a drag on the overall index. Disruptions in supply chains, weakening consumer spending, or regulatory challenges can weigh on specific sectors, influencing the overall market sentiment.
Profit-Taking and Rotation:
Given the prolonged bull market, investors may decide to lock in profits from their existing positions, causing sell-offs and leading to a potential rotation of funds into other assets. This rotation could result in reduced demand for equities, including those within the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Conclusion:
Based on the bearish analysis, a short signal for the Dow Jones Industrial Average within the specified range of 35,420 to 35,455 could be justified. However, it's crucial to remember that financial markets are inherently unpredictable, and trading decisions should be made with careful consideration of risk management strategies. Traders and investors should always conduct thorough research and be vigilant about any potential changes in market conditions.
DOW JONES is starting a 1 year Expansion phase.Dow Jones (DJI) has been on a bullish leg after it broke above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and turned it into a Support. If we see the bigger picture on this 1W time-frame, we can relate to the 2015 - 2016 fractal, where the current sequence was the final bullish signal before a 1 year expansion phase. Even the 1W RSI patterns are identical and the Arc appears to be on its end.
As a result, investors should feel more comfortable buying stocks on a long-term horizon, especially as long as the 1W MA50 holds. After tested as Support on June 27 2016, it wasn't broken until October 22 2018, almost 2.5 years later!
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