DOW JONES Still bullish, one last pullback possibleDow Jones is under the 4hour MA50 for a whole day but still inside both the short and medium term Channel Up patterns.
As long as they hold, the trend remains bullish and we are targeting 34375. If the price crosses above Resistance A, extend buying to Resistance B (34900).
There is a probabilitiy for one last pull-back to the Rising Support around 33300 if the Channels break. That will still be a buy opportunity.
Previous chart:
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DOW
DOW JONES Crossed under the MA50 (4h), first time in a monthDow Jones crossed under the MA50 (4h) today for the first time since March 24th.
Even though that's a bearish bell, the 1 month Channel Up is intact, thus the trend remains bullish.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the price stays inside the Channel Up.
2. Sell if it crosses under the MA100 (4h).
Targets:
1. 34950 (Rising Resistance 2).
2. 33000 (MA100 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is inside a Channel Down ever since Dow started to diverge inside a Bullish Megaphone. This is an indication of a potantial pattern chance from more aggressive bullish to less aggressive bullish/ neutral.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
Dow Activity Decelerating...For How LongI don't think it escapes anyone's attention that market activity levels (volatility) are exceptionally low compared to recent history.
The VIX dropped below 17 and the innate activity levels on the major indices (like the ATRs) have followed the same course. The medium-term activity reading on the Dow (20-day) has dropped to the lowest levels since before the market topped and reversed at the beginning of 2022.
That marries nicely to the very narrow range that the blue chip index has made recently. The AMEX:DJIA cleared the smallest three-day range in a long time this morning with the gap down, but it probably isn't signaling 'breakout' follow through expectations for many outside of those with 5 minute time frame charts.
What is remarkable to me is that the activity levels are still decelerating - meaning short-term volatility is still dropping faster than medium-term. Here is the ratio of the 5-day (1 week) to 20-day (1 month) ATR ratio. There is natural 'mean' to this acceleration/deceleration.
4-19-23 [dji]good afternoon,
there's a very wise man in this market named C who once asked me a question,
C asked:
"you know who loses the most amount of money in a bear market?"
i was like nah who,
C said:
"bears".
---
the dow bones came down from ath in a simple zig-zag (3 wave move)
i am theorizing that it's creating an equal sized move to the upside, but in 3 waves.
3-3-5 is all i'm going to say for now - this will either make sense to you, or it won't -
though, i promise not to leave you hanging when the time comes anon.
---
when the dow bones take out ath, euphoria will peak out in the entire world -
it won't make sense to 90% of the market, as they'll spend most of their time adding to their shorts,
wondering "how can this possibly be?".
---
here's how,
bears keep shorting,
market maker keeps squeezing,
and they keep squeezing until every last bear goes poof.
✌
DOW JONES: Two Channel Up patterns in progress.Dow Jones is mostly neutral on the 4H timeframe due to the slow price action of the past 10 days but remains bullish long term on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 64.809, MACD = 269.290, ADX = 67.751) as the Channel Up is intact following the Golden Cross.
In fact, if the 4H MA50 continues to support (has been doing so for almost 1 month since March 24th), we see the potential for a new Channel Up to emerge as shown by the dashed lines. This can take the price straight to R3 (TP = 35,800). If the 4H MA50 fails to hold, we will sell short term to the 1D MA50/4H MA200 range (TP = 33,200) and then buy for a less aggressive target on R1 and the top of the March Channel Up (TP = 34,600).
Prior idea:
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Key Levels and US Market Review for the Asian session open 18/04Major Indexes were relatively flat overnight as traders digest US earnings and the continued rally into Bond yields. Inflation remains the main focus along with Company Guidance over the coming weeks. The USD continued the move up which pressured commodities and USD denominated currencies. For now, traders are happy to remain risk on into shares although they are unwilling to add further risk into portfolios which to me suggests a swing lower....especially if yields continue higher.
I remain of the view that sticky inflation is the big issue but it remains a balancing act for the Fed. Traders are continuing to anticipate the end to the rate rising cycle and may be wrong again. If the Fed stops too soon, then shares will rally and put pressure back on inflation.
Some KEY ACTIONABLE LEVELS into the Asian market session. Review of the European and US sessions and what that will mean to the price action in the near term along with key levels to watch.
Markets covered :-
DOW
Nasdaq
DAX
FTSE
ASX200
Hang Seng
USD Index
Gold
Oil
Copper
DOW JONES: Huge bullish breakout. Can target 35,900 this quarterDow Jones crossed above the long term Channel Down and turned technically bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 66.042, MACD = 233.400, ADX = 55.323). Given that the bottom pattern was an Inverse Head and Shoulders, which was something we pointed out previously (see prior idea at the bottom), the new buying wave can take the price a lot higher than our short term target on R1 (TP = 34,350), even above R2 to Fibonacci 2.0 and R3 (TP = 35,900). The 1D RSI indicates that the index is on the biggest strength since late November.
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DOW JONES Pulling back for a lower buy opportunityDow Jones is pulling back to the 1day MA50, which is headed to the bottom of the Channel.
You can sell the distance but focus more on buying as close to 33100 as possible and this is the neckline of the Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.
Target 34500 (Resistance Zone A).
Can be viewed as the inverted structure of December 15th - February 15th.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES Broke above the Channel Down. Nothing can stop it.Almost a month ago we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down:
The price has hit our medium-term target and zooming out into the longer term horizon we can see the grand pattern being an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S). This is a bullish reversal formation, in fact it may be characterized as the bottom formation of the 2022 Bear Phase.
The long-term target can be as high as the Shoulders Resistance, the Higher Highs trend-line. If it is inversely symmetrical to June, we can expect a +12.78% rise. This gives us a target for the next 4 weeks at 35400.
Note that if it follows the late October 2022 rally, then it is possible to give one last pull-back within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before our target is materialized.
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Dow Jones - DIA DJIBoy, are these markets something else. Since before 2008, markets correlated relatively close to economic data. Since the introduction of Fed intervention with slashed rates and Quantitative Easing, "markets" were able to "shrug" off even the worst geopolitical and economic events. In fact, it defies all logic.
Logically, markets can and should ignore all TA when an economy is hurting significantly. There isn't a bright spot in the economic data. The consumer is badly beaten and barely holding on. Discretionary spending, credit card debt, personal debt, consumer sentiment, and consumer confidence show us that the average American is at their limit for what they can spend and do. A new study showed that 1 in 4 Americans are skipping Thanksgiving Dinner altogether because of the costs. Keep in mind the collapsing retail, collapsing freight by sea, and now the threat of rail strikes in December which is quickly becoming a reality.
This of course is one of countless statistics that show the pain of average American. Other statistics show savings rates have plummeted and credit card debt is at record levels as people's pay-checks are no longer covering their expenditures.
We've about peaked in this market, looking at a double top from August 2022.. but again, TA doesn't matter as it did before. MACD and RSI have PLENTY of room on the downside. Look at the economic data, even the TA for the short term and position accordingly.
This chart can and will most likely reflect majority of stocks from S&P, Nasdaq, QQQ, SPY, IWM or Russell 2000.
DOW JONES: Inverse Head and Shoulders possibleDow Jones may be close at completing an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern while being bullish both on the 4H (RSI = 60.932, MACD = 165.930, ADX = 34.060) and the 1D timeframes. A pullback to 32,800 and then rebound would confirm that. Even without it, we are ready to buy the breakout above the Channel Down, targeting the bottom of the R1 Zone (TP = 34,350).
If the Inverse Head and Shoulders is indeed confirmed, we will target R3 and Fibonacci 2.0 by late May (TP = 35,900).
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DOW JONES has started a rally that will amaze mostDow Jones is currently on the 3rd straight green 1W (weekly) candle above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), testing the top of the 4-month Channel Down. We have previously seen almost the same pattern during the 2015-2016 correction (E.U./ China/ Oil crisis). A fake-out below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) initiated a rebound above the correction's Lower Highs trend-line and formed a Channel Down.
This Channel Down in 2016 was nothing but a Bull Flag pattern which after another fake-out, this time below the 1W MA50, it rebounded and almost reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension with a final pull-back on Fib 0.786 that kick-started a very aggressive rally. Even the 1W RSI patterns match. Do you think that's the blue-print for Dow?
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DOW JONES Top of the Channel Down but will it stop there?Dow Jones reached today the top of the Channel Down pattern.
This is a rise almost proportional to July 14th-22nd (around 7%). Both crossed over the RSI Falling Resistance and at the same time the MA50 (1d).
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as long as the 1d candle close over the MA50 (1d).
2. Sell if it closes under.
Targets:
1. 34950 (Resistance 2).
2. 32600 (MA200 1d).
Tips:
1. RSI (1d) of the two rises is at the same level after the breakout. Also both started rising on the 30.00 level, giving us more the impression that they are indeed similar patterns under same market conditions.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
DJI Dow headed for a correction.. More pain ahead...If we look at the DJI we can see that on the chart the current price is jumping WAY outside the upper Bollinger Band and the 50 MA is actually above the midline of the Bollinger Band. That can signal a couple things.
1st the pricing being so far beyond the upper band means is due for a sharp downward correction towards the Midline at best and to the bottom band at worst.
2nd, with the 50 MA being above the midline of the Bollinger Band can signal that the local trend support is actually now future resistance. The trend of the bands has the midline the more likely of the 2 targets and that would put the dow in a local down trend in the short term.
Based on what the chart is showing me right now, I would say 31.5k Dow is way more likely to be hit before 34k dow. Depending on how long the correction last, it could be a catalyst for a bigger down trend with a much larger correction still to come later this year. Fed rate decisions, earnings data, lay offs, and a few more international trade issues like Yuan settlements, will play a large factor in the future larger correction timing.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 03 WEEK
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 03 WEEK
Price was marked up on low volume =
possibility of trapping longs. Keep your stops tight
if you are holding long positions.
Possible scenarios:
1) Sell if False break of 33590, test and reject of
recent high
2) Long on test and accept of 32595 // 33590
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Low vol up bar close off high =
possible selling, trapping longs
Daily: Wide spread low vol up bar close off high
= possible selling, trapping longs
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35228 34605 33590
32595 31657
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
Updated Dow Count Looking at 2 scenarios but leaning towards crash wave 3 of 3 being at bat or warming up and getting ready to step up to the plate. There’s an alternate count should the confluence of red lines fail to cap this rally and a horizontal white line in the sand indicted which if exceeded would force a change of view to this is a larger bear rally in play. We’re close to the markets showing us which way this will go.
Previous count invalidated, but if the current count holds true, it’s forecasting a 3 of a 3 wave in an extension. Meaning a crash isn’t far off now.
US30 starting to stall at resistance. Hi traders, this is just a general observation, not a trade idea. Tonight we noticed that the US30 has started to fade at a previous level of resistance. With the Core PCE to come, could an expected jump to the upside add to the small seller momentum we are starting to see?
This week we have seen some decent buying so far, but could today’s action be a small hint at profit-taking starting to come in? If we see new buyer demand appear and price makes a new high today, then this idea could be canceled.
If we do see a pullback today and it remains at or above the trendline and moving average, this could set up a possible buy idea next week if buyer momentum continues.
Have a great weekend and good trading.
DOW JONES almost on our target. What's next?Two weeks ago, we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down:
The price has almost hit our 33100 Target and we think it is time to look into the longer term. We made a case on the idea above that Dow is currently repeating the October - November rally, as the RSI pattern is identical. In addition, that larger pattern could be an Inverse Head and Shoulders, which is a bullish reversal formation, in fact it may be characterized as the bottom formation of the 2022 Bear Phase.
As a result the target can be as high as the Shoulders Resistance, the Higher Highs trend-line. If it is inversely symmetrical to June, we can expect a +12.78% rise. This gives us a target for the next 4-6 weeks at 35400.
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DOW JONES Only a week away from hitting our targetDow Jones hit today the 4hour MA200 and closed a candle above it for the first time since February 20th.
This price action is simply confirming our long term trading plan (see chart below) where we bought the bottom aiming at the top of the Channel Down.
Target intact at 33450 (is also a Harmonic Resistance).
Previous chart:
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US30 - Potential Move upDow and other indexes are showing strength. Looking for long positions. Targets are marked.
DOW JONES broke above the Falling Resistance. First buy signal.Dow Jones broke above the Falling Resistance for the first time in 2 weeks.
The is the first bullish signal since the Triple Bottom but has the Pivot Zone 1 and the MA200 (4h) to overcome.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy as this is a major bullish break out supported by the MA50 (4h).
Targets:
1. 33300 (Fibonacci 0.618).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is on a Rising Support. In the past month, two similar technical structures ended up with a blow-off rise, even when in a downtrend.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
D #DJIA>32680
LONG
T1 33150
T2 33600
<33100
T1 30550
T2 29500
Due to time considerations, i will be skipping the part showing you the harmonics with the Fibs:)
Thank you
#Astrogumbo
