US30: Price levels and pattern analysis post-FMOCToday's focus: US30
Pattern – Ascending Triangle, low rejection, Resistance
Possible targets – 35,260 - 33,255
Support – 33,790
Resistance – 34,310
Today we have looked at the US30 after this morning’s FOMC. The Fed held rates but commented that we could see two more rises this year.
With price bouncing back after testing lower, could we see a new shot at resistance, or will we see sellers make a new test lower, breaking the current uptrend? If the trend is broken, could this set up a new move back to test the long-term pattern base?
On the other side, could buyers make a new move to test or break key resistance? With rate raises back on the agenda will this maintain the current key resistance and hold price in its overall pattern?
Good trading.
DOW
DOW JONES The closing of the 1day candle can send it to 34900Dow Jones/ US30 hit yesterday Resistance A (34260) but closed the candle under it.
If it closes over it, especially if the Fed assists with favorable news today, buy and target Resistance B at 34900.
Until it closes over it, a rejection is equally possible, with the 1day MA50 being the lowest buy entry in the event of a pull back.
The 1day MACD is still on a Bullish Cross, showing a healthy bullish trend.
Previous chart:
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DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 14/06/2023Although the DOW looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 1 hour, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is clearly ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. Traders can initiate a short (against the higher timeframe) or go long after the pullback (aligned with the higher timeframe).
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 13/06/2023Although the DOW looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 1 hour, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is clearly ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. Traders can initiate a short (against the higher timeframe) or go long after the pullback (aligned with the higher timeframe).
SPY - It's Life or Death For BearsIn this post I would like to remind everyone of two critical points:
1. Overall market fundamentals are not very good because the situation in the whole world right now is not very good. The Millennial-themed Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) was ultimately little more than a pretext to drop economic stimulus under because the economy was already #rekt in 2019.
2. The three major indexes have been in a bearish market impulse, but not in a bear market. Just because something goes down, even for several months, doesn't mean it's a "bear market."
==
A Caveat:
The situation in Mainland China under the Chinese Communist Party is not something you can see from the English Internet, or the other languages' Internet, or even the Chinese Internet.
What's really going on is extremely dangerous.
There's the dueling threats inside the world's oldest country of the Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic and the collapse of the CCP.
By the time the news hits the west, most of the dominos will already be collapsed and the gap down will destroy every bull there is, everywhere, including banks and governments.
The 24-year persecution, genocide, and organ harvesting of Falun Gong by Jiang Zemin and the CCP is looming like the Sword of Damocles over Xi Jinping's head, and if he's smart, he'll dump the Party and the Babylon toads in the middle of the night.
If Xi Jinping is a fool, Gods will dump him and all of them all together at once.
It's coming very, very soon. It will be sudden. You are likely to be asleep when it happens because of the time difference between Beijing and New York.
==
I see on Twitter and in some other venues that there are people flexing about how they're goin' hard short at $445 and dumpin their whole portfolio. This area also happens to be the 79% retracement level of the most recent monthly dealing range.
The problem is that shorting a bounce at the 79% is either really optimal or total suicide. What determines which one it is has a lot to do with whether the MM has begun to take sellside liquidity.
The problem is that following the insane COVID QE, the markets had a 120% rally in only 22 months and really never formed any monthly pivots for funds to place their stops behind.
Monthly
Whatever the markets did last year was nothing more than an elementary retrace to the 2020 manipulation order block, which means that the MM's ultimate target is 100% the 5,000 psychological level and even possibly a David J. Hunter-style run higher.
So, we're really at a key point right now. The keyest of the key points. There's really only one question, in my opinion:
Do the indexes set a new ATH this year, or in 2024?
Two things to consider:
1. Markets have gone straight up since January, printing their Low Of The Year only a few days into '23.
(This is usually consistent with a very bullish or bearish impulse)
2. 2024 is the U.S. Presidential Election
So where we're at right now is make or break:
Weekly
For bearish anything to work, you need to see Friday's price action, which swept the August high by a few cents, to form a double top that can be targeted later.
Or you need to see it make a slightly higher high and very quickly retrace.
If you were to get a bearish drive, the target would be $365, setting a LOY, but holding the 2022 pivot, marking the lowest prices the market will see before they set their ultimate all time high in 2024.
However, if the markets hang out in what I call "the monthly zebra," a price area that is of significant note based on the monthly bars, then you can expect these markets to pump to new heights in short order. Shorts will be dead.
It would be one of those cases from Diary of a Stock Operator where "there's no price too high to pay" applies because it's going up and you need some Bank of Japan intervention in the JPYUSD-level stuff to break the momentum.
What this means is that if you missed the move in the markets up, there is no dip to buy.
If you missed the move on the way up, any kind of significant dip now is a short setup.
The long case for a new ATH would be to pay more in the $450 area.
But it's very dangerous. Things can change in this world at any time. Wall Street and the globalist controllers believe they are in control and are very attached to their power, but ultimately, Heaven will show its hand sooner than later.
Since human beings, especially today's modern atheists who believe in the laughable Theory of Evolution, only "believe in what I can see," then the Cosmos will show you reality.
But once reality unfolds before your eyes, it's too late for regrets.
It's the same as how when you're at the casino playing poker, neither the Dealer nor the House lets you keep betting after the River and everyone's Cards are turned Face Up.
Will the DOW break through or bounce back?The DOW is at an interesting level now.
It nearly touches the upper side of a triangle. If it breaks through, there is a resistance zone waiting.
What's next?
Will the DOW break through the triangle and resistance zone or bounce back?
Will this be a short chance while summer is looming?
Disclaimer:
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 12/06/2023Although the DOW looks bullish in the higher timeframe, we expect a pullback in the lower timeframe. In the 1 hour, we see 5 waves up and wave 5 is clearly ending with divergence compared to wave 3. If the divergence is not erased, we would expect a pullback. Traders can initiate a short (against the higher timeframe) or go long after the pullback (aligned with the higher timeframe).
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 12 WeekYM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 12 Week
No change to previous analysis, observing reaction to 34605-34275 area. Last Friday's up bar
showed significant weakness.
Possible scenario:
Short if 34605-34275 is rejected again
Reason:
Higher low toward previous resistance, on reducing volume.
The professionals may engineer a false break to suck in traders unaware of the weakness.
We shall wait to short on rejection of recent high.
Price Reaction Levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 34605-34275
32692 31657
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar = NTC
Daily: Ultra low vol up bar close off high = significant weakness
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Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis Higher Timeframe (11/06/2023)The DOW looks bullish and might be preparing for a Wave 3 to the upside. However, minimum requirements for a Wave 2 to the downside were not fullfilled. As long as we do not take out the Wave 1 high, it could be that we still make a new low as a Wave 2.
DOW JONES confirmed buy signal supported by the MA50 (1d)Dow Jones is having a confirmed bullish breakout singal as it crossed over the short term Channel Up while holding the MA50 (1d).
This is a channel inside the longer term pattern of a Channel Up since the March Triple Bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the market price.
2. Buy if the price crosses above Resistance (1).
3. Sell if the price crosses below Support (1).
Targets:
1. 34350 (under Resistance 1).
2. 34900 (under Resistance 2).
3. 31750 (Support 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is at a level symmetric to January 11th when again the price crossed above a short term Channel Up after rebounding on the MA50 (1d). It reached 34350 shortly after.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES Channel Up aiming at May's High.Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Up and yesterday's low was on the 4hour MA200.
With an emerging 4hour Golden Cross, this is a buy signal on the short-term.
The 4hour MACD is also about to make a Buy Cross, a very consistent buy opportunity.
Target Resistance A at 34260.
Previous chart:
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Most Relevant Short term Level's / US30 🧑💼33,111 Support on the Weekly Timeframe
34,092 Resistance on the Weekly Timeframe
With Monday Daily candle close, we have just created a Daily resistance zone at 33,760
32,856 is the nearest Daily Support Zone
After the market pumped up +2% last Friday, we can observe a -.61% down Monday.
The Market has been ranging for 6 months plus. I think we will continue to observe a range after the Daily timeframe popped it's head above 33,675 ( Previously a Daily resistance after Friday's Daily candle closed above it )
Monday's price action has had the Market ease off the highs and are idea here is that this will continue into Tuesday's and Wednesday's Trading.
If the Market sticks it heads back up to 33,762 it may offer a good Risk Reward Bearish Setup
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 05 WeekYM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 05 Week
Welcome myself back from holiday!
Some selling into higher prices, so will watch reaction to 24605-34275
area.
Possible scenario:
1) Short if 34605-34275 is rejected again
2) Higher low toward previous resistance, for long on retracement.
Retracement down bars need to be on lower volume for this to happen.
Price Reaction Levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 34605-34275
32695 31657
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Lower vol wide spread up bar = possible weakness
Daily: Higher vol wide spread up bar = possible weakness
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
DOW JONES on a confirmed Bullish break-out.Dow Jones (DJI) has broken above the short-term Channel Down today, fulfilling the conditions for a buy break-out as presented on our previous analysis (see idea below) and is now even above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line):
To add more to the bullish sentiment, it even broke above the Diverging Lower Highs and has no real Resistance until 34270, which is our short-term Target. The current rebounded was achieved after the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) held as Support on three separate tests.
The hidden Buy Signal however was derived by the 1D MACD, which completed today a Bullish Cross, the first since March 21 that was the previous market bottom and the start of the current long-term Channel Up
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DOW JONES: On an important make or break 1D MA200 testDow Jones is trading inside a Channel Down on currently red 1D technicals (RSI = 42.150, MACD = -137.170, ADX = 39.695). For the past week though it has been mostly sideways between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200. Today the 1D MA200 held but that alone is not a buy signal.
If it crosses and closes over the 1D MA50, we will target first the R1 (TP1 = 33,650) and then the top of the long term Channel Down (TP2 = 33,900). If the price closes under the 1D MA200, sell and target the bottom of the Channel Down (TP = 32,000).
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DOW JONES Trading approach going into JuneDow Jones / DJI is trading inside a Channel Down pattern for more than a month.
The price is now under the 4hour MA50 and as long as it closes there, sell and target close to Support A at 32600.
A crossing (and candle closing) over the 4hour MA100 will be a short term buy signal targeting 33400 (top of the Channel Down).
A crossing (and candle closing) over the 4hour MA200 will be a long term buy signal targeting Resistance A at 34260.
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES Neutral. Waiting for break out levels to trade.Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Down with the price currently contained within the MA50 and MA200 (1d).
A similar pattern in late December 2022 broke to the upside but be prepared to trade either direction based on the break-out that will prevail.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the price closes over the MA50 (1d).
2. Sell if it closes under Support (1).
Targets:
1. 34350 (under Resistance 1).
2. 31750 (Support 2).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) strengthens the view that the current price action is similar to December's. If it breaks over the MA trend line and rebounds on it (like January 5th 2023), it could be an additional buy confirmation signal.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONESDow Jones Industrial Average is the oldest index in the world.
The index always shows what is happening with the US economy - the largest economy in the world.
Let's look at the chronology of important economic events since 1916:
1916 Lusitania - Sunk by German Submarine / Emergency Revenue Act - Includes Estate Tax
1917 US Formally Declares War on Germany
1918 World War I - End / Daylight Savines Tima / Amendment, Prohibition - Ratified
1919 Amendment, Women's Suffrage - Ratified
1921 The First Restrictive Immigration Act
1922 Federal Narcotics Control Board - War on Drugs
1923 First Transcontinental Fight Japan Earthquake
1924 Ford Manufactures 10 Milfionth Automobile - Scopes Monkey Trial
1926 Revenue Act - Reduces Income & Estate Taxes
1927 Lindbergh - First Nonstop Flight - New York to Pacis
1928 Amelia Earhart - First Woman to Fly Atlantic
1929 Financial Panic - Stock Market Crash - Depression
1930 Smoot Hawley Tariff Act
1931 Bank Panic - Countrywide Banks Closings
1932 Lindbergh Kidnapping / Reconstruction Finance Corp
1933 The New Deal - FDIC Established
1934 Securities & Exchange Commission - Established
1935 Social Security Act - Passed
1936 Drought in the Western States - Dust Bowl
1937 Hindenburg - Destroyed
1938 The New Deal - End / Fair Labor Standards Act
1939 World War Il - Begins in Europe / Great Depression
1940 France Falls - German Occupation
1941 Peart Harbor - Attacked by Japanese
1942 Price Controls - Begin / Battle of Midway / Guadalcanal
1943 Current Tax Payment Act, Withholding Taxes
1944 Normandy Invasion
1945 World War II - End / Cold War - Begins
1946 Stock Market Crash / Price Controls - End
1947 Taft-Hartley Act / Marshall Plan
1948 Truman Upsets Dewey - For Presidency
1949 Foreign Currencies Devalued
1950 The Korean War - Begin
1951 First Commercial Color TV Broadcast
1952 Steel Workers Strike - Despite Government intervention
1953 The Korean War - the End of Wage Stabilization Board
1954 St. Lawrence Seaway Bill - Passed
1955 President Eisenhower - Suffers a Heart Attack
1956 Suez Canal - Crisis
1957 Sputnik |
1958 USA - First Satellite Launched
1959 St Lawrence Seaway - Opened
1960 First Japanese Cars, Exported to US / U2 Spy Plane Shot Down
1961 The Berlin Wall - Built / Bay of Pigs - Debacle
1962 The Cuban Missile Crisis / Sled Price Rollback
1963 John F. Kennedy Assassinated
1964 Vietnam War Begins - Gulf of Tonkin Resolution
1965 The Great Inflation - Begin
1966 Medicare - Begin / the First Time USA Bombs North Vietnam
1967 The Six-Day War
1968 The Offensive / R.F. Kennedy & M.L King - Assassinated
1969 Apollo 11 - the USA on the Moon
1970 USA & South Vietnamese Invade Cambodia | Kent State
1971 Wage & Price Controls
1972 Watergate - Break-in / Munich Olympics Massacre
1973 US Involvement in Vietnam - End / Arab Oil Embargo
1974 President Nixon Resigns / ERISA Act - Signed
1975 Saigon - Fall / May Day - the End of Fixed Commissions
1976 US Bicentennial / Lockheed Aircraft - Bribery Scandal
1977 Panama Canal Treaty - Control of Panama in 2000
1978 Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment Act
1979 Three Mile Island - Accident / Iran Hostage Crisis
1980 Iraq Invades Iran - War / Hunt Brothers Siver Crisis
1981 Tax Cut - Passed / Space Shuttle / President Reagan - Shot
1982 Penn Square Bank - Closed by Regulators / Falkland Islands War
1983 Terrorist Bombing of US Barracks - Beirut / Grenada Invasion
1984 Run on Continental Bank
1985 Gramm-Rudman Act / US Becomes a Debtor Nation
1986 Iran-Contra Affair / US Attacks Libya / Chernobyl Accident
1987 Financial Panic / Stock market Crash of Iraq Attacks on USS STARK
1988 Terrorists Bomb N.Y. Bound Airliner - Lockerbie, Scotland
1989 The Berlin Wall - Opens / US Invades Panama
1990 Iraq invades Kuwait / Gorman Unification
1991 The Gulf War / Soviet Union Collapse
1992 The Cold War - Ended / Civil War in Bosnia
1993 Russian Revok / World Trade Center - Bombed
1994 Orange County Bankruptcy of NAFTA instituted
1995 Oklahoma City - Murrah Federal Building - Bombed
1996 Alan Greenspan's “Irrational Exuberance” Speech
1997 Asian Currency Crisis - Hong Kong & Global Stock Market Rout
1998 US embassies in East Africa bombed
1999 NATO Bombs Serbia, Yugoslavia / Y2K - Millennium Scare / Columbine massacre
2000 Bush v. Gore Election Crisis / Terrorist Attack on USS COLE
2001 Terrorist Attack on the World Trade Center & Pentagon / Enron
2002 War on Terror of Turmoil in the Middle East / Corporate Misconduct
2003 Iraq - Weapons Inspections / War in Iraq
2004 Global War on Terror
2005 Record High Oil Prices / Hurricane Katrina
2006 Housing Decline / Nuclear Weapons - North Kores & Iran
2007 Subprime Mortgage / Credit Debacle
2008 Credit Crisis / Financial Institution Failures / Bitcoin - Created
2009 War on Terror / Climate Debate / Healthcare
2010 Gulf Oli Spit / European Union Cassis / Massive Debt
2011 Debt Ceiling Crisis / US Credit Downgrade
2012 European Debt / US Fiscal Cliff
2013 Boston Bombing / Government Shutdown / NSA Leaks
2014 Rise of ISIS / Police Protests / Oil Price Decline
2015 Terror Attacks / Refuges Crisis / China Slowdown / Fed Rate Hike
2016 Brexit - Start / Cuban Embassy Opened / Elections
2017 Trumponomics, Cryptocurrency Fever
2018 United States trade war with China
2019 Chang'e-4 on the far side of the moon / Fire of Notre Dame Cathedral / The first case of 2019-nCoV coronavirus infection in China
2020 US-Iran Tension / The COVID-19 Pandemic / Joe Biden Wins the Presidency / "Black Monday" for oil / Brexit - End / SpaceX space launch
2021 The GameStop short squeeze / Ever Given halts global supply chain / COVID-19 vaccines / America withdraws from Afghanistan
2022 Ukraine Russia War in the Center of Europe - Sanctions for Russia
What awaits us next...
Potential events that may overtake us in the near future:
- The use of tactical nuclear weapons.
- Cyber Warfare.
- Hunger.
- The largest economic crisis (food crisis, trade supply crisis, energy crisis).
- New viruses, pandemics.
- Potential formation and formation of Kurdistan and conflicts around it.
- Massive Blackout.
- Conflicts of countries in Oceania.
Write in the comment section what you would add to the list above.
Best Regards,
EXCAVO
Dow 4hour say= when pinbar comes,pick buy and hold when you see buy pinbar on 1hour or 4hour or daily chart ,pick buy with SL=pinbar low
wait time=2week
predict=dow,nasdaq,sp500 will see all time high again (35000) but with 2-3 mini crash
if you have old buys,dont fear, if red area break,hedge your buys
wish you win
DOW JONES: Hit the 1D MA200 after almost 2 months.Dow Jones touched today the 1D MA200 for the first time since March 29th, almost 2 months after the strong bullish break-out. The 1D timeframe is technically bearish (RSI = 38.438, MACD = -67.410, ADX = 30.240), indicating that we are approaching low enough levels to justify a long term buy. However we are only willing to open a buy position as long as the 1D candles close over the 1D MA200 and target R1 (TP = 33,600).
If a candle closes below the 1D MA200, we will open a sell and target the bottom of the dashed Channel Down (TP = 32,000). Once the 1D RSI gets oversold, we will again buy on the long term, aiming at the top of the seven month Channel Down (TP = 33,900).
Keep in mind that the 1D MA200 has held and provided excellent buy signals, three times and only once on March 9th it broke.
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US30 Analysis, can support hold for buyers?Today's focus: US30
Pattern – Support point, descending triangle.
Possible targets – Downside 31,840 Upside 31,160
Support – 33,033
Resistance – 33,705
Thanks for checking out today’s update. Today’s analysis is over the US30 daily as price sits around support in a descending triangle pattern. Yesterday price broke lower after buyers failed to beat Monday’s high. The debt ceiling issue continues to look like the key issue, with price reacting negatively after no ground was made on Tuesday.
This could continue to drive momentum, and bad news could equal downside risk, while a deal could give buyers plenty of drive. This week’s meeting minutes are another factor; traders will be looking for more clues on rates and how the Fed is seeing inflation atm. We are also hoping to hear more about how the banking issues are factoring into the Fed’s view.
Thanks for stopping by. Good trading, and have a great day.
DOW JONES Emerging Bullish Cross may take it higher.Dow Jones (DJI) has broken above the former long-term Channel Down, hitting our previous upside target (see idea below) and is now forming a new pattern:
The new pattern is a Channel Up, which has been on a correction leg (blue channel down) since the 34270 High, similar to the one from December 01 to January 05. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting a loose Triangle pattern (dashed trend-lines), which above it targets Resistance 1. Our target is slightly lower at 34250.
The critical factor is on the 1D MACD, which is close to forming a Bullish Cross. Every MACD Bullish Cross under 0 in 2023 has been a major Buy Signal, and interestingly enough both have been formed while the price was consolidating within a Triangle.
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