DOW JONES One month rise is startingDow Jones hit the bottom of the Channel Down and is immediately reacting with a rebound.
The price also closed above Support B. The RSI missed the oversold level by a narrow margin and this is identical with the September 27th market bottom.
Our medium term target is 33450 (Top of Channel Donwn and on top of the Harmonic Resistance).
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DOW
11 Trade Ideas Predicting The DJI Crash | Where Is The Bottom?The Dow Jones Industrial Averages index has been holding much, much better compared to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes.
While the other two indexes have been down considerably since we started to predict the crash (18% SPX & 25% NDX), the Dow Jones (DJI) has gone down only by 12%.
This is the last one of this series of articles.
Feel free to relax as we get started!
Thanks a lot for your support.
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Let's start with the chart above on the Monthly timeframe.
The DJI closed last month below EMA10 and it is now signaling lower.
We use EMA10 to gauge the short-term potential of a cryptocurrency trading pair, stock or chart.
So the short-term potential has gone bearish... This we normally say based on the daily (24 hours per candle) timeframe.
Since this is the monthly, each candle is ~30X stronger than the daily.
Which means that this very simple signal can yet be very strong.
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We started in late January to look at the Dow Jones.
We don't need/use 100 indicators, the very simple moving averages for us are more than enough.
Here we saw that the Dow Jones is no exception, it was also set to drop!
(Jan. 24) The Dow Jones Industrial Average Is No Exception (Crash)
Two days later we looked at the famous 'Falling Wedge" pattern and compared it to 2020-2018...
This one on the monthly timeframe.
(Jan. 26) Dow Jones Industrial Average Monthly Chart Analysis (30%+ Crash)
We can appreciate how the DJI was looking better than the SPX and NDX...
Yet, the indicators, such as the MACD, gave it away!
(Jan. 28) The Dow Jones Industrial Average: Not All Red
Dead cat bounce, anyone?
Easy to tell... We stay conservative though to not scare you away.
How to prevent a crash if the Feds policy do not change?
A: Impossible
(Feb. 7) DJI Weak Bounce
And here too for the initial phases of the correction we look at the classic ABC.
(Feb. 11) DJI Crash Last Reminder
To me, the next one was the biggest give away of all.
The long-term cycles are very strong but what to say when an index loses a 20 years long support?
We are talking about the MACD on this one...
(Feb. 14) DJI And The 20 Year MACD Support
We step back to sum it all up...
It is possible that the DJI goes for a 50% or more drop... Who knows, let's ask the chart!
(Mar. 4) DJI | Dow Jones Industrial Average (Additional 55% Drop)
By mid-March we shared the "bear-run"!
This is happening across all markets and will continue a bit longer before we see sustained/long-term growth.
(Mar. 13) DJI Bear Run
This is all for the major US Indexes.
We will go back to Bitcoin soon and then focus 100% on the Altcoins which is where the money grows.
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In all, we published:
(1) 26 trade ideas for the SPX (all bearish).
(2) 14 trade ideas for the NDX (all bearish).
(3) 11 trade ideas for the DJI (all bearish).
For Bitcoin (BTCUSD), we share the Macro/Long-Term view as well as the short-term bounces/moves when prices go up.
You can count on us being here by the time the bottom is reached and when we hit $300,000 or more in 2025 and beyond.
Namaste.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 13
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 Mar 13
Short on reject of 32789 offered very good returns for those who were able to trade
during the US afternoon hours.
Ease of movement to the downside observed.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short on test and reject of 32789, possible target 31100
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol down bar close toward low (non-trend changing)
Daily: Low vol E=R down bar (non-trend changing)
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
34689 32789
30513 28635
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Have a profitable week ahead.
US30USD - Thank You JPOWOANDA:US30USD
Price action was a little dicey during Chair Powell week.
But with a birds-eye view and some price action analysis, you knew to stay bearish.
What do you think for next week?
Pop to the upside, as the market makers say, enough is enough?
Trade well
DOW JONES 1929 - Worst is yet to come Federal Reserve raising rates vertical fasted in history.
1. More people getting bullish before mass bankruptcies are filed
2. Bull whip effect in full force too many new hired people from stimulus
3. FED are stuck and have to raise rates through a recession threat to defend the US Dollar and US bonds
4. They potentially avoided the blow off top but can they prevent the collapse?
5. Banks are running into liquidity issues already
6. Unemployment claims are skyrocketing from job layoffs not being reported.
Dow Jones : eyes on 29000My target for US30/Dow Jones is 29000
My reasons :
Technically, price failed to create new highs and it's a signal that bullish momentum is turning bearish, which will be confirmed if the weekly candle close below 32000
Fundamentals also are putting pressure on Dow Jones, as we have SVB saga, inflation, strong dollar, US debt deficit and more
Collapse Of The US Economy DOW AMERICA | Part Two
The Roaring Twenties roared loudest and longest on the New York Stock Exchange. Share prices rose to unprecedented heights. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased six-fold from sixty-three in August 1921 to 381 in September 1929. After prices peaked, economist Irving Fisher proclaimed, “stock prices have reached ‘what looks like a permanently high plateau.’” 1
The epic boom ended in a cataclysmic bust. On Black Monday, October 28, 1929, the Dow declined nearly 13 percent. On the following day, Black Tuesday, the market dropped nearly 12 percent. By mid-November, the Dow had lost almost half of its value. The slide continued through the summer of 1932, when the Dow closed at 41.22, its lowest value of the twentieth century, 89 percent below its peak. The Dow did not return to its pre-crash heights until November 1954.
Skeptics existed, however. Among them was the Federal Reserve. The governors of many Federal Reserve Banks and a majority of the Federal Reserve Board believed stock-market speculation diverted resources from productive uses, like commerce and industry. The Board asserted that the “Federal Reserve Act does not … contemplate the use of the resources of the Federal Reserve Banks for the creation or extension of speculative credit” (Chandler 1971, 56).2
The Federal Reserve’s rate increase had unintended consequences. Because of the international gold standard, the Fed’s actions forced foreign central banks to raise their own interest rates. Tight-money policies tipped economies around the world into recession. International commerce contracted, and the international economy slowed (Eichengreen 1992; Friedman and Schwartz 1963; Temin 1993).
The financial boom, however, continued. The Federal Reserve watched anxiously. Commercial banks continued to loan money to speculators, and other lenders invested increasing sums in loans to brokers. In September 1929, stock prices gyrated, with sudden declines and rapid recoveries. Some financial leaders continued to encourage investors to purchase equities, including Charles E. Mitchell, the president of the National City Bank (now Citibank) and a director of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.6 In October, Mitchell and a coalition of bankers attempted to restore confidence by publicly purchasing blocks of shares at high prices. The effort failed. Investors began selling madly. Share prices plummeted.
While New York’s actions protected commercial banks, the stock-market crash still harmed commerce and manufacturing. The crash frightened investors and consumers. Men and women lost their life savings, feared for their jobs, and worried whether they could pay their bills. Fear and uncertainty reduced purchases of big ticket items, like automobiles, that people bought with credit. Firms – like Ford Motors – saw demand decline, so they slowed production and furloughed workers. Unemployment rose, and the contraction that had begun in the summer of 1929 deepened (Romer 1990; Calomiris 1993).7
Before the crash, which wiped out both corporate and individual wealth, the stock market peaked on Sept. 3, 1929, with the Dow at 381.17. The ultimate bottom was reached on July 8, 1932, where the Dow stood at 41.22. From peak to trough, the Dow experienced a staggering loss of 89.2%
Between 1929 and 1933, real gross domestic product per capita plummeted by nearly 30% and the unemployment rate soared from about 3% to over 25%. The consumer price index (CPI) plunged by nearly 25%, with the rate of deflation exceeding 10% in 1932
DOW JONES: November Support and bottom of 4month Channel hit.Dow Jones is officially oversold on the 1D time frame (RSI = 29.490, MACD = -335.510, ADX = 43.978) with the RSI being that low for the first time since September 30th 2022. By hitting also the S1 Zone and the bottom of the Channel Down, it becomes a buy opportunity for us, TP = 33,450 (P1).
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DOW JONES Any doubt we are completely off Bear limits anymore?This Dow Jones (DJI) from the start of the 2022 Bear Cycle until today with the 2007 - 2009 (Housing Crisis) Bear Cycle fractal plotted on it. As you see up until the mid October bottom, the two sequences practically traded in an identical way. Since then however, Dow has completely diverged from the 07/09 fractal and despite the late weakness, it is hard to claim that we are still in Bear Cycle territory.
Is there any doubt we are off Bear limits anymore?
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Five Waves Elliott Wave Structure in Dow Futures (YM)Cycle from 12.13.2022 high in Dow Futures (YM) shows a 5 swing sequence favoring follow up to the downside. Structure of the move lower from 12.13.2022 high is unfolding as a 5 waves diagonal Elliott Wave structure. Down from 12.13.2022 high, wave 1 ended at 32686 and rally in wave 2 ended at 34551. Dow Futures extends lower in wave 3 towards 32527 and wave 4 rally ended at 33590.
Internal subdivision of wave 4 unfolded as an expanded flat. Up from wave 3, wave ((a)) ended at 33211 and wave ((b)) pullback ended at 32527. Index then resumes higher in wave ((c)) with internal subdivision as 5 waves. Up from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 32785 and pullback in wave (ii) ended at 32580. Index then resumes higher in wave (iii) towards 33470, and pullback in wave (iv) ended at 33359. Final leg wave (v) ended at 33587 which completed wave ((c)) of 4 in higher degree. The Index has turned lower in wave 5 with internal subdivision as an impulse. Down from wave 4, wave ((i)) ended at 32626 and wave ((ii)) rally ended at 33002. Wave ((iii)) lower ended at 32190 and wave ((iv)) rally ended at 32534. Near term, as far as pivot at 33587 stays intact, expect rally to fail in 3, 7, 11 swing for further downside.
does technical analysis work? dia is wonderingDIA has been stuck in channel and will eventually pick a side.
rates rising, jpowell speaking, will treasuries pull assets form dollar sensitive dow?
DOW JONES The opportunity to buy again is NOWWe have been following this Triangle pattern on Dow Jones (DJI) trading within what we called the 'High Volatility region' since last year, with are last buy signal given 1 week ago:
The 33400 target was reached and yesterday's rejection on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) is providing us with a new opportunity to buy. We have a confirmed Triple Bottom ranging from November 09 2022 and today's low makes a Higher Lows sequence similar to what followed after the December 20 2022 Low on the 32480 Support. Even the 4H CCI is on the exact same levels as December.
Target 1 is again 33400 and Target 2 is 34350 assuming the index breaks and closes a 1D candle above the Pivot Zone and then re-tests it successfully as a Support.
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DOW JONES High probability buy opportunity.Dow Jones quickly reached our first two targets (see bottom of the idea for the previous analysis).
Yesterday's rejection on Pivot Zone (2) creates the conditions for a new buy position since the index entered Pivot Zone (1) again.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
2. Buy if it closes a candle over the MA200 (4H).
Targets:
1. 33500 (inside Pivot Zone (2) and on the tranjectory of the MA200 (4H)).
2. 34300 (near Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4H) has a Rising Support similar to late December. In fact the two bottom formation are very much alike, both bottomed on a Declining Support and initially hit Pivot Zone (2).
2. 1. The MA50 (1D) moves parallel with Support (2) and essentially has provides the same level of support pressure as that level. Trend changes long term if it breaks.
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Notes:
This is an extension of this trading plan:
DJI Possible Drop Incoming for 2023Good morning, Traders. Right now, weekly timeframe looking like some minor up movement is still possible, but don't let that move fool you. Monthly timeframe printed a HUGE bullish engulfing candle, if that level is broken, I am expecting DJI to drop down to the 28k level.
Projecting the first half of the 2023 will not be great for the stock market maybe the entire 2023. Only time will tell...
Well, that's it for today, Happy holidays everyone and have a great rest of the years! Happy Trading!
Intraday Bullish setup on DJIOn a weekly chart, the price broke above the upper band of an expanding wedge channel, now it just made its second retest of the upper band- making that level a bit more stronger (provided it does not get broken).
So, i am having 2 bias, one is mid-term bullish bias as shown in the above chart. A break above the Intraday - OB followed by a retest would mean that buyers are still very much interested in riding the price back up.
Alternatively, if the price break down and fall back inside the wedge (weekly) then the FVG could get filled up and it's going to be a quick bearish down pour.
So, stay close and watch how it plays out.
Dow Jones by EOY
Based on fundamentals, economics, economic data, geopolitics, Fed QT. It'll be a zig zag on the way down. S&P completed a 50% retracement during this last 5-week rally. The trend seems to have reversed with a resumption in selling that started in Nov 2021, accelerated in Jan 2022, with a recovery in June to Mid August.
DOW JONES Massive breakout. Where to profit and where to rebuy.We got the perfect buy on Dow on Tuesday and now we will discuss how to best manage it:
The index is now approaching not just the 4hour MA200 but also the 33450 Resistance, which rejected the Dec 20th-21st rally. This along with the Jan 20th-23rd rally, pulled back to Fibonacci 0.618 before resuming the bullish trend.
The long term Target is 34000, top of the Channel Down.
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US30 SHORT BIAS (UPDATED)!Hello all!
US30 Idea for you!
I will be looking to sell Dow to 32250. From there a Strong DEMAND zone would be mitigated.
This isn't my exact entry on this pair, as i will look for confirmation due to the BUY volume (Looking at hourly TF)
Monitor LTF and execute the SHORT position accordingly! Will only enter aggressively if the POI is mitigated during US news tomorrow!
Take care!
💾 DJI Bullish But Why? & BitcoinNotice how the August 2022 peak is followed by a strong correction, instantly.
The November and December 2022 peak is followed by sideways consolidation.
That's why I consider this chart to be bullish.
I make the same argument for Bitcoin.
In the past, each time a peak is hit we have a strong correction immediately after.
In the present, as each new peak is hit, we get sideways consolidation.
That's a bullish signal.
Thank you for reading.
Namaste.
dowjones 4 hour say = above low,looking for buy when you see pinbar on 15-60-2240-1440min chart ,pick buy and put SL in pinbar low,uunderstand?
hold your buys minimum to fibo 50% (dont close soon)
if you have old buy ,dont fear ,dow will back to high ,but put hedge sellstop in low ok? (if it open,never close it in low ,even in 10.000$ profit(ca go downer and margincall you ),wait dow goes down and back ,up trend apear,then close sell,then on high close buys)
alert= dow will go to 35800 ,be carefull from sell 100% put sl
good luck
DOW JONES This is the bottom. Fractals from 2022 confirm.Not surprisingly to us, Dow Jones has stayed inside the High Volatility region that we have identified back in late November:
The 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) has supported twice already since November 10 and is now going for its 3rd hold. If we pay a closer attention to the 1D RSI we see that it has printed the very same pattern it made on all Lows during the 2022 Bear Cycle. That is basically 3 occasions. The RSI is very close to the 30.00 oversold barrier and as the 1D MA100 supports, it makes it the most optimal long-term buy level on a 2-month horizon.
Even though it has been mostly trading sideways within the High Volatility Zone, on RSI terms, it is comparable to all 2022 Lows that bottomed out on an oversold 30.00 1D RSI and started an aggressive rally in the form of a Rising Wedge.
Our Targets are: short-term = 33400 (Pivot Zone), medium-term = 34400 (February 14 Resistance), long-term 35500 (April 21 Resistance).
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DOW - Any relief rally is guilty until proven otherwise !Seems to me like this could unfold as a complexe correction if bulls are to remain in power longer term.
We could see soon a move up but if it stays sideways it's most likely going to be a wave (b) of higher degree Y imho.
Look for individual names showing relative strength right now, those are most likely to be the next big leaders.
DOW JONES bottomed out on a 4 month Support!Dow Jones almost hit Support (2) at 32470 a level that worked out twice since November 9th 2022, starting strong rallies to 34390 (Resistance 1).
The same Declining Support on price - Rising Support on the RSI (4h) Bullish Divergence was formed on the December 20th bottom.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 33050 (MA50 (4h))
2. 33500 (MA200 (4h) and bottom of the Pivot Zone.
3. 34300 (under Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The MA50 (1d) moves parallel with Support (2) and essentially has provided the same level of support pressure as that level. Trend changes long term if it breaks.
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