DOW
DOW JONES is completing a Bull Flag to jump to 46700.Dow Jones / US30 is posting a Bull Flag pattern on the 4hour timeframe, currently between the 4hour MA50 and MA200.
The last time we came across this pattern was with the early September Bull Flag.
Both patterns started after a +8.20% rise on the index.
If the new one repeats September's, then we should see an immediate rally to the 1.5 Fibonacci.
Buy and target 46700.
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Dow (US30) coiling price action after increase in US PPI dataThe Dow (US30) index price action sentiment appears bullish, supported by the longer-term prevailing uptrend. However, since reaching an all-time high on 04th December 2024 the Dow index price action is consolidating in a sideways trading range. Today, Thursday 13th February 2025 the US (PPI) Producer Price Index data was published showing the increase to 3.5% on a yearly basis in January. The annual core PPI rose to 3.6% in the same period, surpassing market forecasts of 3.3%. On a monthly basis, the PPI and the core PPI rose 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.
The key trading level is at 44206, the current swing low. A corrective pullback from the current levels and a bullish bounce back from the 44206 level could target the upside resistance at 44980 followed by the 45080 and 45200 levels over the longer timeframe.
Alternatively, a confirmed loss of 44206 support and a daily close below that level would negate the bullish outlook opening the way for a further retracement and a retest of 44000 support level followed by 43740.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DOW JONES One last drop below the 1D MA50 is possibleDow Jones (DJIA) has found itself in an uncomfortable spot as it's been trading sideways within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and Resistance 1 of the December 2024 High, for the past two weeks.
The 1D RSI has already started trending downwards on a Bearish Divergence while the 1D MACD just completed a Bearish Cross. The times we've seen all those conditions fulfilled within the 2-year Channel Up, are in mid-May 2024 and early May 2023.
On both occasions, the price got rejected on Resistance 1 and pulled back below the 1D MA50 to form a Higher Low. After the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, the price confirmed a technical reversal and targeted the 1.5 Fibonacci extension before the next pull-back.
As a result, you might want to keep a buy order waiting for a sub-MA50 drop and buy once a MACD Bullish Cross is formed to target 46500 (Fib 1.5 ext).
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DOW JONES: Necessary correction to lated target 46,600.Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.301, MACD = 170.540, ADX = 30.319) as it is trading sideways on top of the 1D MA50 for the past 2 weeks. The long term pattern is a Channel Up that every time it rebounded on a HL bottom and hit the R1, it always pulled back again to test the 1D MA50. Consequently, this is a necessary technical correction that will allow the index to attract enough buying momentum again to go after a new HH. Aim for a minimum +8.41% increase (TP = 46,600).
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DOW JONES Can the 1D MA50 save the day once more?Dow Jones (DJIA) has been trading within a year long Channel Up and this week's pull-back has so far found Support just above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). As this chart shows, every 1D MA50 contact that was made after a Channel Up bottom (Higher Low), was a buy opportunity as the blue arc patterns highlight.
The green arcs are the Channel bottoms and technically the strongest buy opportunities and in the past 10 months we've only had 3 of those. This is the 4th blue arc however, the medium-term buy opportunity.
Regardless of colour, the 4H RSI pattern on each of those buy opportunities, has been the same. And the resulting rally has either hit the 1.5 Fibonacci extension or made a +8.33% rise.
This time the 1.5 Fib is a bit closer to the price, so that will be our medium-term Target at 46750.
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DOW JONES: Buy signal above the 4month RectangleDow Jones just turned bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 56.676, MACD = 255.440, ADX = 30.051) as it hit the 4H MA50 after an instant rebound on the 4H MA100 inside the same session. This is a strong bullish reversal but the buy signal will be validated if the price crosses over the 4month Rectangle pattern. The rally from its January 13th bottom has been with a significant correction until Friday's and today so far and according to the November rally which was two-fold, if this is the start of the 2nd bullish stage, it should be -1.70% weaker than the first. This implies that from today's low we should rise by +6.30%. This gives us a TP = 46,550 but in order to overcome the bearish pressure of the Rectangle, we will buy only if then price crosses over it.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DOW JONES starting a bullish streak to 48500.Dow Jones / US30 is trading inside a Channel Up since August 2022 and is right now on the 3rd straight green 1week candle.
Even though it is approaching the top of this 2.5 year pattern, the upcoming Bullish Cross on the 1week MACD indicates that the rally that is starting could be of a similar magnitude like November 2023 and October 2022.
Consequently, we expect this to reach at least the 2.0 Fibonacci extension on a diverging Channel Up.
Target 48500.
Previous chart:
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Dow Jones 30 is near its all-time high. Can we create a new one?Can the Fed help the MARKETSCOM:US30 move a bit further north and establish a new all-time high? There is a possibility for that, however, we need to wait for the Fed press conference, when market volatility may increase significantly. That said, let the market settle and we can see what we can do. Check the video for more details.
TVC:DJI
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DOW JONES close to a rejection. See where to buy & target 47000.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us the most optimal buy entry on our previous call (January 09 2025, see chart below), as we bought right below the 4H MA200, which was the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up, and on minimum risk it hit our 45000 Target:
The price is currently about to break above Resistance 1. As this chart shows, every time a sub-1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rebound broke above a Resistance 1 level, it was only on a marginal note and then corrected back to the 1D MA50.
The two notable examples where August 30 2024 and May 20 2024. After the correction bottomed and the bullish trend was resumed, the rebound that followed reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, making a roughly +8.50% rise from the Low.
This indicates that the next Higher High of the Channel Up should be a little over 47000 and that will be our Target after we catch that 1D MA50 pull-back entry.
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DOW JONES: Channel Up rebounding on the MA50 (4h).Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Up which hit today its MA50 (4h).
That was right at the bottom of the Channel Up, which is a strong buy signal.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 45400 (+3.86% rise like the previous Leg).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is also rebounding in a similar manner as the January 13th low.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES: Absorbing tech sector's losses.Dow Jones remains heavily bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 63.633, MACD = 251.980, ADX = 35.788) and in contrast with Nasdaq's heavy losses, which is rattled by DeepSeek, it is rising. It seems that industrial stocks are absorbing quite a significant portion of tech's losses. Dow's long term Channel Up pattern remains intact and last week's crossing over the 1D MA50 and the bearish wave, confirmed that we are at the start of the new bullish wave. Based on the HL of the 1D RSI that was completed on the January 10th bottom, we draw strong comparisons with the October 27th 2023 bottom. If the index holds the 1D MA50, we expect the next high to be at 48,000 and after a pullback, complete the wave by May on a +20.75% rise (TP = 50,500), same as the increase of the 2024 bullish wave.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Why does hegemony andsupremacy work? Trumpian economics ushers…Why does hegemony and supremacy work? Trumpian economics ushers The Neo Titanic era of late-stage capitalism.
Blessings. Good? I’m just easing back into the site myself.
An easy basic plain chart for your head tops!! you’re welcome.
entered the premarket with the hands-off approach and a wide stop.
Targeting 250 points of the US 3 to close out and historic week
I may also use a scalping strategy between the LSE and NYE opens
The pips are falling out of the sky. The bulls 🦬can smell the blood. Even the bears 🐻 like me can't resist the fresh meat in the woods tonight.
As always on the menu is the working class, as the new deconstructionists position their chairs on the reality TV show Neo-Titanic.
It’s a good year to get rich.
Just enough to give bulls hopeWave C has retraced more than I was expecting, but it is just near the optimal range where Bulls are back into euphoria and Bears are afraid to short.
I am expecting to see a downward push soon, otherwise I have my clear invalidation level for this scenario. My overall downward target for this remains the peak made in COVID rally which i have shown in my previous weekly wave count of DOW.
DOW has a full Bull year ahead based on PRESIDENT'S CHEATSHEETDow Jones (DJI) has started the year on a positive note and that is anything but a coincidence. On this 1W chart you can see Dow's price action since the early 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis.
That happened to be Obama's 1st year of Presidency. As you can see, 2009 was an incredibly bullish year with the index rising more than +60% from the year's bottom.
Four years later in 2013, which was the 1st year of Obama's 2nd term in office, Dow had again a strong year, rising by +25% (naturally the previous term was more aggressive as the market had tremendous upside potential to recover from one of the worst economic crises in history).
Moving forward again 4 years (2017), we can see yet another bullish (+35%) 1st year of Presidency, this time Trump's first term.
Biden also had his fair share of bullish 1st year of Presidency in 2021 (+23%).
The pattern is evident and shows the euphoria the market has when the U.S. President assumes his duties on his 1st year. It also shows that (excluding as mentioned 2009, which was natural to see a stronger recovery) on average it is fair to expect a price increase during the 1st year of around +25% to +30%.
In fact, the price action that led to the current 1st year of Presidency that has just started (Trump's 2nd term), is very similar to the one that preceded Obama's 2nd term (2013). Both formed a Channel Up after the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) was tested and held. That pattern pushed the price higher until the 1st year of Presidency, that found the index on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Even the 1W MACD sequences that preceded this, are similar between the two fractals.
As a result, investors have a strong reason to be bullish in 2025 and if pattern achieves the bear minimum of 2021 (+23%), we can expect to see 51000 by the end of the year.
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DOW JONES: Crossed above the monthly Channel Down. Buy signal.Dow Jones turned bullish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.829, MACD = -79.310, ADX = 34.732) as it crossed over the Channel Down that is the bearish wave of the long term bullish trend. The 1W MA50 held and we have to go back to October 30th 2023 to find the last time that the index was under it. If the 1W RSI crosses above the MA trendline, we will confirm that most likely we are going to have a November 6th 2023 type of bullish breakout. The major rallies of the past years have been at least +20%. Buy and TP = 50,500.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DOW JONES Falling Wedge to break upwards soon.Dow Jones is trading inside a Falling Wedge.
Right now it is on the MA50 (4h) after rising on a bullish wave to the pattern's top.
The pattern is very close to be completed and Falling Wedges tend to break to the upside once completed.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the next pull back.
Targets:
1. 43500 (under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on higher lows, i.e. a bullish extension since December 18th. Sign that a bullish break out is ahead.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES: contact with the 4 month Support Zone. Strong hold.Dow Jones approached the oversold limit today on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.566, MACD = -404.260, ADX = 33.712) as it hit the S1 Zone, which is in effect since late September 2024. The last test of this Zone (November 4th 2024) also coincided with the 4H RSI getting oversold (under 30.000) and the price was also trading inside a Channel Down. By early next week, we expect the index to initiate a similar rebound, aiming at the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 44,300).
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DOW JONES The RSI shows the bottom is in.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 1-year Channel Up and is on a Bearish Leg since the December 05 2024 High. The price has found support so far 4 times on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and is consolidating.
This is most likely a bottom formation as the 4H RSI is posting a Bullish Divergence similar to the 3 previous times in 2024 when the price broke below the 4H MA200. Technically once the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, we should a confirmed Bullish Leg, which is what happened on all 3 occasions.
The minimum Target is Resistance 1 at 45000. Note that as long as the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) holds, the bullish trend will continue to be favored.
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2025 is a Bull Year I would like to start the year with what I expect if we talk about the crypto market - a bull market until September 2025
If we talk about the stock market - bullish or flat as it was in 2005 and 2015.
If we take statistics in years that end in the number 5 (1895, 1905, 1915, 1925, 1935, 1945, 1955, 1965, 1975, 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005, 2015) - we see bull markets.
Below, I have shown weekly charts of each year ending in the number 5.
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
Here, we saw that all years are bullish, but 2005 and 2015 were reaccumulation.
Positive Scenarios for 2025
Soft monetary policy: If the Federal Reserve keeps rates at levels that support credit growth and capital availability, it will support the corporate sector and business expansion.
Technological breakthrough: A recovery in investment in artificial intelligence, green energy and biotechnology could create new growth drivers for the Dow Jones.
Sustainable global development: If geopolitical tensions diminish and international trade relations stabilize, the global economy will gain new momentum, reflected in the index's growth.
Negative Scenarios for 2025
Tight monetary policy: A sharp rise in interest rates could reduce the availability of capital, which could slow economic growth and pressure corporate profits.
Geopolitical instability: Increased conflict or trade wars between major economies could lead to declining investor confidence and capital outflows from the market.
Declining technological development: If leading sectors such as technology and green energy do not show the expected growth, it could affect market expectations and valuations.
Conclusion
Analyzing the history of the Dow Jones, years ending in 5 represent unique periods of growth and recovery. Against the backdrop of current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, 2025 could be a year of significant opportunity.
The optimistic scenario is based on continued loose monetary policy, innovation, and stabilization of global relations. However, the risks associated with tight monetary policy and global instability require caution.
For investors, 2025 could be a year of essential choices. Focus on long-term trends, analyze macroeconomic indicators, and diversify your portfolio. History shows that even in times of uncertainty, the market has the potential to grow.
And for years that end in number 7 according to bearish statistics, I will write about this in 2027
Best regards EXCAVO