DOW
DOW JONES Falling Wedge to break upwards soon.Dow Jones is trading inside a Falling Wedge.
Right now it is on the MA50 (4h) after rising on a bullish wave to the pattern's top.
The pattern is very close to be completed and Falling Wedges tend to break to the upside once completed.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the next pull back.
Targets:
1. 43500 (under the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1d) is on higher lows, i.e. a bullish extension since December 18th. Sign that a bullish break out is ahead.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES: contact with the 4 month Support Zone. Strong hold.Dow Jones approached the oversold limit today on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 38.566, MACD = -404.260, ADX = 33.712) as it hit the S1 Zone, which is in effect since late September 2024. The last test of this Zone (November 4th 2024) also coincided with the 4H RSI getting oversold (under 30.000) and the price was also trading inside a Channel Down. By early next week, we expect the index to initiate a similar rebound, aiming at the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 44,300).
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US30 Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 42200 zone, US30 is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 42200 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
DOW JONES The RSI shows the bottom is in.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a 1-year Channel Up and is on a Bearish Leg since the December 05 2024 High. The price has found support so far 4 times on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and is consolidating.
This is most likely a bottom formation as the 4H RSI is posting a Bullish Divergence similar to the 3 previous times in 2024 when the price broke below the 4H MA200. Technically once the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, we should a confirmed Bullish Leg, which is what happened on all 3 occasions.
The minimum Target is Resistance 1 at 45000. Note that as long as the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) holds, the bullish trend will continue to be favored.
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2025 is a Bull Year I would like to start the year with what I expect if we talk about the crypto market - a bull market until September 2025
If we talk about the stock market - bullish or flat as it was in 2005 and 2015.
If we take statistics in years that end in the number 5 (1895, 1905, 1915, 1925, 1935, 1945, 1955, 1965, 1975, 1975, 1985, 1995, 2005, 2015) - we see bull markets.
Below, I have shown weekly charts of each year ending in the number 5.
1905
1915
1925
1935
1945
1955
1965
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
2025
Here, we saw that all years are bullish, but 2005 and 2015 were reaccumulation.
Positive Scenarios for 2025
Soft monetary policy: If the Federal Reserve keeps rates at levels that support credit growth and capital availability, it will support the corporate sector and business expansion.
Technological breakthrough: A recovery in investment in artificial intelligence, green energy and biotechnology could create new growth drivers for the Dow Jones.
Sustainable global development: If geopolitical tensions diminish and international trade relations stabilize, the global economy will gain new momentum, reflected in the index's growth.
Negative Scenarios for 2025
Tight monetary policy: A sharp rise in interest rates could reduce the availability of capital, which could slow economic growth and pressure corporate profits.
Geopolitical instability: Increased conflict or trade wars between major economies could lead to declining investor confidence and capital outflows from the market.
Declining technological development: If leading sectors such as technology and green energy do not show the expected growth, it could affect market expectations and valuations.
Conclusion
Analyzing the history of the Dow Jones, years ending in 5 represent unique periods of growth and recovery. Against the backdrop of current macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions, 2025 could be a year of significant opportunity.
The optimistic scenario is based on continued loose monetary policy, innovation, and stabilization of global relations. However, the risks associated with tight monetary policy and global instability require caution.
For investors, 2025 could be a year of essential choices. Focus on long-term trends, analyze macroeconomic indicators, and diversify your portfolio. History shows that even in times of uncertainty, the market has the potential to grow.
And for years that end in number 7 according to bearish statistics, I will write about this in 2027
Best regards EXCAVO
DOW JONES giving a buy opportunity on this correction.Dow Jones / US30 pulled back today and remains under its 1day MA50 for 20 days straight.
Despite this weakness, this is technically a bottom formation of the Channel Up.
As long as the 1day MA200 holds, the long term trend is bullish.
Technically, it is similar with the Channel's first correction, which also pulled back by almost -7%.
The 1day RSI is printing the same bullish divergence as then, which cause the price to rebound immediately and hit Resistance A.
Buy and target 45000.
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Phathom Pharmaceuticals ($PHAT ): High-Growth Potential I spend time researching and finding the best entries and setups, so make sure to boost and follow for more.
Phathom Pharmaceuticals ( NASDAQ:PHAT ): High-Growth Potential in Biopharmaceuticals
Trade Setup:
- Entry Price: $7.53 (Activated)
- Stop-Loss: $5.67
- Take-Profit Targets:
- TP1: $22.00
- TP2: $41.80
Company Overview:
Phathom Pharmaceuticals ( NASDAQ:PHAT ) is a biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing novel treatments for gastrointestinal diseases. With a pipeline of promising drugs, NASDAQ:PHAT is gaining attention as a high-potential player in its sector.
Recent FDA approvals and upcoming clinical trial data releases have positioned the company for significant upside. These developments could catalyze rapid stock price appreciation in the coming months.
Earnings Reports:
- In its most recent quarter, NASDAQ:PHAT reported revenues of $12.3 million, driven by early sales from its newly approved drug for acid-related conditions.
- Operating losses narrowed compared to previous quarters, reflecting disciplined cost management.
Valuation Metrics:
- Market Cap: $500 million, indicating a small-cap stock with room for growth.
- Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio: 4.1, suggesting moderate undervaluation compared to industry averages.
Market News:
- Phathom recently announced successful Phase III trial results for another key drug in its pipeline, expected to drive future revenue growth.
- The company is expanding its distribution partnerships, aiming to broaden its market reach.
Technical Analysis (Daily Timeframe):
- Current Price: $7.53
- Moving Averages:
- 50-Day SMA: $6.80
- 200-Day SMA: $7.00
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): Currently at 55, signalling neutral momentum with room for further upside.
- Support and Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Support: $7.00
- Resistance: $9.00
The stock has activated the entry at $7.53, with strong support at $7.00. A breakout above $9.00 could set the stage for rapid movement toward TP1 at $22.00 and TP2 at $41.80.
Risk Management:
The stop-loss at $5.67 limits downside risk to approximately 25%, while the first take-profit target at $22.00 offers a **192% gain**, and TP2 provides a massive **455% return**, making this an attractive trade for long-term investors.
Key Takeaways:
- NASDAQ:PHAT is a high-risk, high-reward opportunity in the biotech sector, driven by a strong pipeline and recent FDA approvals.
- The trade setup offers an excellent risk-to-reward ratio, aligning with the stock’s growth potential.
- Ideal for investors seeking exposure to a rapidly developing biopharmaceutical company.
When the Market’s Call, We Stand Tall. Bull or Bear, We’ll Brave It All!
DOW JONES Bullish accumulation below the 1D MA50.Dow Jones (DJI) has been trading within a Channel Up since the July 18 High. Right now the price is consolidating between its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). At the same time, the 1D RSI breached the oversold barrier (30.00) and rebounded.
This trading sequence has presented the most efficient buy opportunity since April 19 2024 and the even though all Bullish Legs that followed have been a little over +8.00%, the weakest one has been +7.63%. As a result, our current Bullish Leg Target of 45235 is formulated out of that minimum.
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DOW JONES SCENARIOSHello
for DJ is now following its uptrend corridor but when it breaks down this red corridor it will at least run to that midline of the yellow corridor, so in this case if this scenario wont happend you can guide yourself by keeping eys on my drawings on my chart.
NB: just be simple
DOW JONES: Ignore the pullback, this is a new bullish wave.Dow Jones turned bearish again on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.280, MACD = -138.420, ADX = 33.278) as it failed to hold the 4H MA50 as support today and crossed under it. The 1D MA100 is coming in as the next level of support, which formed the Dec 18th-19th low. According to the 4H MACD, the index formed during those 2 days a bottom similar to of August 5th. As long as the 1D MA100 holds, it is more likely to see a bounce above the 4H MA50 again like August 13th. Our goal is a wave, so we're targeting the R1 level (TP = 45,000).
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DOW JONES What signals the top of this Cycle?Dow Jones (DJI) has been on a highly systematic pattern ever since the 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis and this chart on the 3W time-frame depicts very accurately the symmetrical nature of the Cycles that the index is going through in the past 15 years.
As you see, ever since the October 2011 bounce on both the 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 3W MA200 (orange trend-line), Dow started a hyper aggressive Bull Cycle, which after making a Top on each phase, it broke below the 3W MA50 to become a buy opportunity again but has never yet broken below the 3W MA200.
So far we have completed three such phases and we are currently on the 4th. In the three that have already been completed, the Top of the Phase was signaled by the RSI. At a certain point that it broke above the 70.00 overbought barrier, it started a Channel Down comprised of 4 legs (a through d). On the (d) leg, it gave a signal that Dow had (or is very close to) topped. That was the ultimate long-term Sell Signal. Similarly, when the index broke below its MA50 and the RSI double bottomed, it has been the ultimate signal to buy.
Right now it appears that the RSI has completed Leg (a) and is starting the rise to Leg (b) of its newly emerged Channel Down. That means that the market has around another 12 months before it Tops again.
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US30 Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 43,000 zone, USOIL is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 43,000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
DOW JONES: 5 month Channel Up bottomed and 1D MA100 hit. BullishDow Jones turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.675, MACD = -65.830, ADX = 38.532) after yesterday's sharp drop due to the Fed announcing an outlook shift to 2 rate cuts in 2025 from 4 previously. Technically though that fall presents a unique long term buy opportunity as despite crossing under the 1D MA50, it managed to hit the 1D MA100 for the first time since Aug 8th while touching the bottom of the 5 month Channel Up. Today the price is showing the first signs of rebounding. The 1D RSI rebounding from below 30.000 (oversold) is also a great bullish indicator. The drop that resembles most December's is the first bearish wave of the Channel (July-August). When it recovered, the rebound hit the R1 level at first and that is our target (TP = 45,000).
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Dow Jones Potential UpsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a buying opportunity around 43300 zone, Dow Jones is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 43300 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
DOW JONES 13-year pattern that never failed eyes $48000.Dow Jones (DJI) gave us the best bullish break-out signal exactly 1 year ago (December 13 2023, see chart below), as our buy entry at 36577 hit our 42900 long-term Target last October:
At that time we made a clear point why that rally 'shouldn't surprise you' and it is because of this pattern's consistency for so many years. This 1W time-frame chart shows the cyclical behavior of the index, which peaks (Sine Wave top), then pulls back and starts forming a Rising Wedge (Sine Wave bottom) and when it breaks above the Rising Wedge, is where it flashed the bullish break-out signal we got a year ago.
As you can see it then starts a gradual rise on the BB20 and completes the Cycle again (Sine Wave top) after roughly a +47% rally. The title mentions that this pattern 'never failed', practically it only broke during the COVID flash crash, which was a non-technical event than occurs once every 100 years. As you can see even the 1W MACD sequences between the cyclical patterns are identical.
As a result, our Target towards the Sine Wave peak is 48000. If this is achieved in Q2 2025, based on Dow's current Channel Up (dashed), then we expect the index to remain on those high levels but turn more neutral sideways towards the end of 2025 and then eventual start of the new Bear Phase.
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Major crash imminent?Is there a coming market crash? Technically it looks that way. In the past 130 years, price on the Dow has never been above the upper trendline, except twice, and the first time it happened, it happened just before the major crash in 1929 that set off the Great Depression. The second time is NOW. It's happening right now .
Also, every time price gets close to the upper trendline, it falls back down (2000, 2008, covid, and in June this year, it fell by 20%.)
Right now, the DOW is at 45000. If one looks at the long term trend line, a healthy price level right now should be around 18000...a hefty 60% drop.
Dow-n Memory Lane: Is History About to Repeat Itself?🚨 Breaking News Alert! 🚨
The Dow Jones might be partying like it’s 1929 again! 🎉 Except this time, the crash might make your portfolio flatter than a pancake at a bodybuilder's breakfast. 🥞💪
Let’s talk about the elephant in the chart 🐘—every time the Dow hits the ceiling of this oh-so-perfect wedge pattern, it nose-dives harder than your New Year’s resolutions by February. 📅💔
1906: Boom. Bust. Dow said, "Thanks, but I’m good at -90%."
1929: The OG crash. If you survived this one, congrats—you’re probably immortal now. 🧓💀
2008: The market went "Oops, I did it again" like Britney, wiping out fortunes faster than you can say "subprime mortgage." 🏚️💵
2020: "Hold my beer," said a microscopic virus, and the market tripped like it was wearing untied shoelaces. 🍺😷
Now? The chart suggests we’re flirting with another epic freefall. 🚀⬇️
🧐 How bad could it get?
Well, if history decides to copy-paste itself, we’re looking at a potential 90% drop. Yes, NINETY. PERCENT. That’s like seeing a Tesla go for the price of a second-hand bicycle. 🚲🔋
👉 What can YOU do?
Panic? Sure, if you want, but that doesn’t help. 🫠
Diversify? Probably smart. 📊
Buy gold? Maybe, if you’re a fan of shiny things. 🪙✨
Short the market? 🐻 You rebel, you.
But hey, no pressure. It’s only all your hard-earned savings on the line. 🫣💸
So, are we about to witness the Great Crash 2.0, or will the Dow keep defying gravity like a magician’s top hat? 🎩 Stay tuned, folks, because when this market sneezes, the whole world’s economy catches a cold. 🤧🌍
💬 Drop your hot takes below—because let’s face it, speculating about doom is more fun than living it! 😎🔥
US30 - Once A Castle, Always A Castle!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈US30 has been bullish , trading within the rising channel in blue.
After rejecting the $45,000, has been in a correction phase and approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, the zone marked in green is a strong structure.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the structure and lower trendline acting as non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #US30 approaches the blue circle, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Dow Jones Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring US30 for a selling opportunity around 44,900 zone, US30 was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 44,900 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
FORECAST UPDATES: Post CPI Results. Did We Get The Bias Right?Wednesday Dec. 11, 2024.
This is the Mid-Week Progress Report. Checking the accuracy of the Weekly Forecast and the Updates video posted yesterday.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DOW JONES: Neutral 1D means buy opportunity.Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.536, MACD = 330.150, ADX = 20.923) as it is on the bearish wave of the 4H Channel Up, towards the 4H MA200, which on November 19th priced the last HL. The 4H RSI got oversold and rebounded today above its MA period, which twice before has been a buy signal. We are going long here, aiming at the 1.382 Fibonacci extension (TP = 45,400).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DOW JONES 25-year Cycles show the clear picture you should know.Almost 8 months ago (April 12, see chart below), just when Dow Jones (DJI) was recovering from April's correction, we sent a clear message not to lose sight of the greater picture and to stay bullish:
The reason was the index' clear cyclical pattern since the February 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. The index has grown by +17% since that analysis (from 38459 to 45080) and we can't see a reason not to complete the pattern and hit our 48850 Target, which is our projection for this Cycle's Top.
On this updated chart is on the 1W time-frame, in contrast with April's which was on the 1M, we have added to key elements. The Channel Up that is dictating the pace of the Bull Cycle since the Feb 2009 bottom and the Fibonacci retracement levels, which show that after the Bull Cycle topped, the subsequent Bear Cycle corrected within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibonacci Zone at least before the bottom was formed.
In fact, all Cycles hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) upon the Bear corrections and those didn't start before the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) was broken (1M candle close below). Our 48850 Target is technically the minimum estimate as that was the % rise of the previous one (Cycle 4), which was the least aggressive compared to others (Cycle 3 = +77.19%, Cycle 2 = +75.09%, Cycle 1 = +99.62%). If Cycle 5 peaks higher, we will draw the Fibonacci retracement levels from that top and re-adjust our expected 0.382 Fibonacci bottom for the Bear Cycle (or if the 1M MA50 gets hit first).
As far as timing of the Cycle 5 Top is concerned, we expect that to be on December 2025 the earliest, again based on the Cycle with the minimum time length (Cycle 3), excluding Cycle 1 which was the most aggressive as it was the first after the U.S. Housing Crisis bottom.
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