DOW JONES Repeating the July bullish fractal. Still time to buy!It was just 10 days ago when we made a case for a medium-term buy on the Dow Jones index (DJI), against popular belief, as we had early signs that the index made a June 17 type bottom and was about to repeat the June-Aug rebound:
Our view has been confirmed so far and following the 1D RSI break above the Lower Highs and the 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the price quickly has come a few clicks away from the 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
Today's analysis is on the 4H time-frame, in order to get a more detailed look on the short-term. We see that Dow Jones has already broken above both the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) which is supporting currently. Based on the 1D RSI it seems that we are still in the early stages of this uptrend to a Lower High (at least). The 4H Golden Cross (MA50 above MA200) hasn't formed yet and in order to get a better understanding of Dow's analogous position compared to July, I've plotted the June-July sequence on today's price action (black line).
As you see, based on that, the 1D MA50 break should come by next week's end (the earliest), though of course this isn't absolute as even though similar, the current price action hasn't followed the exact pattern of June-July. Above the 1D MA50, the next volatility zone should be within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels, making way for the rejection zone (and the medium-term target) within the 1D MA200 (grey trend-line) and the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line).
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DOW
Stocks Pull Back After Tesla and FedAs predicted yesterday, stocks have met resistance at 3758. We were fairly certain this would be a top due to lack of momentum and the price action 'rounding off'. Also, the news isn't exactly cheery lately. The Fed's Bullard thinks we won't see inflation ease until next year, and Tesla's earnings have disappointed sending the stock tumbling 5%. The major indices all dipped, and exactly as we predicted, the level 3676 has provided support. If support does not hold, then we could retrace all the back to 3584. We are likely to hold the range between current levels and highs at 3758. If we can somehow break out, we are sure to hit resistance at 3792, which should be considered a ceiling for now.
DJI Potential For Bullish MomentumOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bearish. However, with the recent CPI data released being better than expected, we can expect a medium-term bullish market. Looking for a buy entry at 29997.62 where the market gap is. Entry will be at the top of the market gap to prevent missing out on trades. Take profit will be at 34281.36 where the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci lines are located together with a market gap that adds confluence to that area. Stop loss will be at 28516.32, slightly below where the previous low is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bullish Momentum | 20th October 2022The current overall bias for DJI is bearish, according to the H4 chart. However, given the CPI figure exceeded expectations, the short-term trend is expected to be optimistic. Looking for a buy entry retracement at 29997.62, which includes the market gap and the 23.6% Fibonacci line. Entry will be at the peak of the market gap to avoid missing out on the trade. The stop loss will be set at 28551.76, which is significantly lower than the previous low and also where the 0% Fibonacci line is located. The take profit point will be at 32170.35, the intersection of the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci lines, as well as the market gap.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
WWI: A Timeline of History [Part I]Some key dates of WW2 in 1939 overlaid with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Part II (1940) coming soon
The S&P at Pivotal CrossroadsThe S&P 500 has run into resistance at our level at 3758. We have predicted this to be the case yesterday. Recall that we should run into prohibitive resistance here, but if not, the next target is a relative high at 3810, which we anticipate to be a ceiling. Today is a make-or-break for stocks. If they can break out, then we will be able to test higher levels, but if not, the price action is likely to 'round off' and we may retrace the entire range to 3584 or find intermediate support at 3676.
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, the overall bias for DJI is bearish. Looking for a sell entry at 31981.14 where the market gap is alongside with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci line. Stop loss will be at 33364.70, slightly above where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 27215.49 where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line and 161.8% Fibonacci extension line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bullish Momentum | 19th October 2022According to the H4 chart, the current overall bias for DJI is bearish. However, because the CPI figure came in higher than projected, the short-term trend is expected to be positive bullish. Looking for a buy entry retracement at 29997.62, which comprises the 23.6% Fibonacci line and the market gap. To avoid missing out on the trade, entry will be at the peak of the market gap. The stop loss will be at 28551.76, which is slightly lower than the previous low and also the location of the 0% Fibonacci line. The take profit point will be at 32170.35, which is the intersection of the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci lines and the market gap.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DOWJONES this week?!We saw on Thursday the market broke the structure and on Friday went for a retracement so I think we have a nice buy entry between 29400 - 29100 price it might go lower than that for stop loss hunt aka sell side liquidity smart money is Going to fill their bags at 30900-31200 levels.
Can Exhuberance in Stocks Last?Stocks have gained after ' shrugging off ' yet another worse than expected inflation print. Additionally, traders seem hopeful of good earnings prints as banks lead the way , with strong numbers. All major indexes have risen sharply, with the S&P 500 touching our level at 3758, just below highs at 3810. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply with the momentum, but we will see if this will last. Netflix earnings are today and there are serious questions about subscriber growth. In the event of a strong selloff, we could completely retrace this move, with 3584 likely to provide support yet again. If we are able to break through 3810, the next target is 3825.
US30 breaks range as buyers continue to pushHi, and welcome to today's update. Focus today on the US30 as buyers continue to push the case for a new up leg.
In today's video, we run over price action that proceeded the move and the battle we watched last Friday and yesterday as traders tried to hold and move passed 30,000. The break above resistance in today's Asian session is a great sign, and we want to see buyers hold this move or continue it to confirm today's move.
If buyers can continue to push the market higher, we would like to see new higher highs and higher lows that show bullish control. If we see a fade in today's NY session that closes back below 30,300 or 30,000, this would be a worrying sign that we could see the range continue.
Buying has been broad so far today in the out of hours, with the SPX500 and NDX100 seeing solid gains. This is a good sign that buying interest is firm and wide across the indexes.
Let's see if buyers can carry momentum forward into today's NY session.
We like to hear from you, so please feel free to drop us a comment. We also run weekly webinars with guest analysts.
DJI Potential for Bullish Momentum | 18th October 2022The current overall bias for DJI is bearish , according to the H4 chart. However, because the CPI report was better than predicted, the short term trend is expected to be optimistic. Looking for a retracement buy entry at 29997.62, which contains the 23.6% Fibonacci line and the market gap Entry will be at the top of the market gap to prevent missing out on the trade. Stop loss will be at 28580.62, which is slightly lower than the previous low and where the 0% Fibonacci line is located. The take profit point will be at 32170.91, where the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci lines and market gap is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DJI Potential for Bullish Momentum | 18th October 2022The current overall bias for DJI is bearish, according to the H4 chart. However, because the CPI report was better than predicted, the short term trend is expected to be optimistic. Looking for a retracement buy entry at 29997.62, which contains the 23.6% Fibonacci line and the market gap Entry will be at the top of the market gap to prevent missing out on the trade. Stop loss will be at 28580.62, which is slightly lower than the previous low and where the 0% Fibonacci line is located. The take profit point will be at 32170.91, where the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci lines and market gap is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Stocks Retrace GainsThe S&P 500 has found support at 3584 after the CPI dip tested the base of the 3500 handle. We have since solidly recovered the 3500's, with a strong burst of momentum breaking through to 3714, where a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance. We then fell back to support at 3584, and are currently seeing an attempt at a pivot. We identified 3617 and 3624 as two levels where we would see resistance and that is exactly what we are seeing. A red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance at these levels. If we are able to break past them, expect further resistance at 3714. If we retrace, then 3584 should hold, otherwise the base of the 3500 handle should hold as a floor.
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn the H4 chart the overall bias for DJI is bearish. Looking for a potential retracement sell entry at 12906.26 where the 23.6% and 50% Fibonacci lines are. Stop loss will be at 13564.83, slightly above where the 61.8% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 11862.84 where the previous low and 0% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bullish Momentum | 17th October 2022The current overall bias for DJI is bearish, according to the H4 chart. However, because the CPI report was better than predicted, the short term trend is expected to be optimistic. Looking for a retracement buy entry at 2906.42, which contains the 23.6% Fibonacci line and the -61.8% expansion line. Stop loss will be at 28522.60, which is somewhat lower than the previous low and where the 0% Fibonacci line is located. The take profit point will be at 30982.97, where the 38.2% and 0% Fibonacci lines intersect.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
EURAUD - LongUtilizing simple yet powerful DOW theory to spot the trend and find out the best possible entry, exit points.
Looking at the daily timeframe there are series of Higher highs(HH) and higher lows(HL), suggesting a bullish trend . Hence a possibility of following long position
Entry long : 1.56676
Stop loss : 1.5355 (a little below previous higher low)
TP: 1.62250
Will Dow Jones fall to 27k this year?My outlook for the stock markets this year is bearish and, in fact, I have expected a fall for around 6 months now. Although it didn't happen, YET, let's try to see the bigger picture and understand what's happening.
For the past 9 months, Dow30 was trading in a range. You may argue that we have higher highs in place, but this, in my opinion, is window dressing. In fact, Dow was trading at an average of 35500. Yes, indeed, 34k support held for 6 times, but recoveries after touching it are anemic, highs are marginal and this support held not because there was much buying power there, just lack of selling by big players.
My true opinion is that in this past 9 months we have had a large distribution, when " they" are done distributing is hard to say though...
In conclusion, I expect a drop for Dow (and indices in general) this year, and my target is 27k
Dow Jones Industrial Average relative strength on the riseThe overall US equity market is still having a hard time stabilizing and catching its footing, however, if we examine the major US indices closer we do notice more and more relative strength coming out of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
This past week it never took out its September lows, the MACD momentum oscillator continues to climb aggressively, and on Friday we remained in the top 1/3 of Thursday's bullish engulfing bar.
I started a position on Thursday and will keep a tight leash risk managing it going forward. More notes on the chart.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 OCT 17US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 OCT 17
Support at 28886 long was fruitful.
Market is in rotation of 1800pts. Next target should be toward bottom
of rotation range 28635.
Possible scenarios:
1) Rotation play = trades to be taken at boundary of range.
2) Signs of breakout = look for higher lows / market loitering near
-> breakout of zone, --> test and accept of breakout = long
3) Signs of breakdown = look for lower highs / market loitering
near bottom of range --> breakdown of range --> Short on test and
reject of breakdown
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
32789 31793 31385
30513 28732 29639
29315 27741 26876
26212
Weekly: High vol up bar close off high toward middle = undecisive
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off at low = minor supply
H4: Very high vol down bar close at low = demand present
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
DJI Potential for Bullish Momentum | 14th October 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias on DJI is on the bearish side with the price underneath the Ichimoku cloud , adding confluence to the bearish bias. However, the US CPI data release was better than expected so we can expect a short-term bullish momentum. Looking for a retracement buy entry at 29050.53 where the -61.8% Fibonacci expansion line and 23.6% Fibonacci line intersects. Stop loss will be at 28531.37, slightly below where the previous low is located. Take profit will be at 30851.83, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationThe overall bias for DJI on the H4 chart is bearish. In addition, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Look for an immediate sell entry at 30033.46, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci line. The stop loss will be set at 30840.50, which is the 382% Fibonacci line. The take profit point will be at 27215.49, which is the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion and 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bullish Momentum | 14th October 2022On the H4 chart, the overall bias on DJI is on the bearish side with the price underneath the Ichimoku cloud, adding confluence to the bearish bias. However, the US CPI data release was better than expected so we can expect a short-term bullish momentum. Looking for a retracement buy entry at 29050.53 where the -61.8% Fibonacci expansion line and 23.6% Fibonacci line intersects. Stop loss will be at 28531.37, slightly below where the previous low is located. Take profit will be at 30851.83, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is located.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
