DOW 4HOUR : UP TREND WILL CONTINUE TO 31500dow is near buy area for hold to fibo61 ....under red arrow after PINBAR comes we can sell too but be careful from sell ..dow can go to 32800 trendline
good luck
DOW
Stocks Meet ResistanceAs mentioned in our report yesterday, stocks have edged higher but are facing resistance at 3792. A red triangle on the KRI confirms resistance here. We are seeing support at 3749, after the pullback. The Kovach OBV has gained strength but has receded. If we can see another burst of momentum, we may make a run for the 3800's. If not, expect further support at 3714.
DJI Potential For Bullish MomentumThe DJI is in a strong bearish trend on the H4 chart. Price, however, retraced back above the previous swing low of 29647.79. On DJI, there was significant upward bullish momentum overnight.
At 29647.79, where there is a market gap that appears promising to be filled, buyers are looking for a pullback.
The prior long's stop loss point is at 28744.12 in this case.
Expect price to reach 30854.86 for take profit, which is where the 38.2% and 78.6% Fibonacci lines are situated.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bullish Momentum | 5th October 2022The price has retraced past the previous swing low of 29653.29 on the H4 chart.
Due to several Fibonacci lines intersecting around 31268, which provides confluence to that place for take profit, I predict price to tap there after the strong bullish advance from October 3rd 2022.
At the 29647.79 level, where there is a market gap that needs to be filled and where the 100% Fibonacci projection line is situated, there may be some opportunities for a buy entry.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
US30 makes it two in a row, but do we need more evidence?What a start to the week and month we are seeing so far, traders. So far, buyers have added 5.52% to the US30, taking prices back to levels not seen since last month.
Yes, it is great to see, but should we start thinking bottom? The UN is warning that we could see a global recession, with developing nations possibly seeing the brunt of the hurt. JP Morgan is also advising this might not be a bottom unless we see certain factors met.
What has been driving the selling, Inflation, rising rates, U.S. and global recession fears? Have these factors gone? US-wise, the Fed remains hawkish, and Inflation remains in play. It is not uncommon to see sharp counter rallies in downtrends, and we need to be in tune with the market to either not be sucked in early or spot a potential turn.
Bulls are definitely back in charge in the short-term, but it’s the next reaction lower that could give us some key evidence in if we are going to see a potential turn. A new higher low followed by a break of the last high would be a very good sign that a new short-term trend is starting to form.
If we see a new move back down to or below the last low would be a worry that the current trend could continue lower.
This Friday’s U.S. employment data could also be a factor for the current recovery, and we feel that traders will be paying attention to its release this Friday at 8:30 am EST.
Thanks for tuning in for today's update. We like to hear from you, so please feel free to drop us a comment. We also run weekly webinars with guest analysts.
Dow Jones (DJI) A Bear trapGood Day,
Hello Traders,
DJI looks bullish for very short term, if it corsses 31030 and sustains above it for a week ,
then we can see a reversal.
However broadly picture looks gloomy as the world fears recession as this is been sold all
across the media.
Disclaimer : I am not SEBI registered analyst, this is for educational purposes.
Please trade as per your risk and do consult with your financial advisor before taking any
trading decisions.
If you really like the analysis , please do comments, LIKE and Follow me.
SPX500 / ES - An Ill-timed Bear is a Dead BearThis past week's trading was a good refresher course on what bear markets actually trade like. As opposed to dips during bull runs that suck to short and aren't so scary to go long on because price action continually rips back and makes highs, bear markets will take out a consecutive series of downside lows while terminating virtually each and every rally.
At some point during a good bear market, however, you get that kind of manipulation that comes fast and strong to the upside, bringing in buyers and stopping out and liquidating late bears and greedy bears.
An easy example of this was formed in a miniature on the 1 minute charts of FedEx FDX on Thursday:
It's a risk that all bear market short sellers and put buyers should keep in mind.
When it comes to Nasdaq and SPX, it's important to keep an eye on the clock. We just had an entirely bearish week. And a heavily bearish week prior. With a peculiar form of meltdown on FOMC day after the Fed did what everyone and their dog knew for at least a month they would do: hike 75 bps.
And in response, everything quickly took a run at the June low, and yet for SPX and Nasdaq and the SPY and QQQ ETFs they did not take the June low and even rallied off the June low.
It's like support was found and a double bottom has been made.
But note that Dow did take the June low and also spent some time purging under the pre-COVID highs as well:
SPX and Nasdaq, like last week, finished the week with a fairly strong bounce. The question now, is, do they turn around and take the June lows before the end of the month?
I'd estimate the chances at 65-35 No-Yes, personally.
Consider that this is the final week of trading, a full five days, to form the monthly candle. Consider also that Friday Sept. 30 is also quarterly options expiry. Consider also that timing is more important than price.
A situation we could easily be set up for is a run back towards 4,000 to close month end, forming a monthly pinbar.
Don't think it can happen? It happened in May after making new lows:
On the weekly, it's more painful:
Broken down into the daily, you see that you had a 400 point bounce over the course of 6 trading days:
And on the 4H, there wasn't a whole lot of chance to escape for bears:
And then it turned around and made the June lows, which still stand as the low of the year, if you aren't the Dow.
In my opinion, the truth is that we are going to see SPX 3,400 and NASDAQ 9,xxx in October, and probably a rather ugly month, but rather than a market wipeout, things will likely turn around again after the November Midterm elections are over.
But before we get to that bloody month, you have a week of trading left to paint some hard-to-trade candles, and at least October 3 and 4 where it can still be bullish as the high of the month gets painted before we descend into the near-COVID high abyss under 3,600.
So, what to do? If you decide to go long, it's a scalp, not a hold into a reversal. If you want to keep going short, you need to keep your risk down, or prepare to hold a major move in the opposite direction.
Unless you're patient/liquid enough to keep shorting on the way up.
Of course, just like last week's call, it may just turn around and die, die, die.
SPX500 / ES - It's Still a Bull. Now, Good Luck Riding It
In trading, it's not so hard to predict the future, but it is hard to figure it out down to the day and the hour, so you have to have some expectations about what can unfold in both directions and a plan for what to do when things unfold contrary to your expectations.
Don't get drug into the chaos on social media about recession this and inflation that and Europe this and terminal Fed fund rates that. The U.S. equities market absolutely won't collapse until one, or all, of four conditions are achieved:
1. Everything breaks
2. War
3. Natural disaster
4. Chinese Communist Party falls
The U.S. equities market remaining strong is critical for the Western Communist Party to maintain social stability until technocracy can be installed in the form of Central Bank Digital Currencies and Social Credit under the pretext of a conflict-backed energy and economic crisis.
They need to create a crisis they can save you from, but the window of opportunity to do that is still a ways away. In the meantime, they need to maintain their stability until the opportunity is ripe.
Your western governments have spent years training Marxist-Leninism in Shanghai and Beijing with the Chinese Communist Party. They love the evil Party's ways, because they and the Party have a similar nature. Don't think your governments want to help you and save you.
They believe in Marxism, and Marxism believes in redistribution of wealth, which is a polite way of saying that they'll ruin your life and take your stuff.
If you want a bright future, get rid of this communist and socialist stuff from your minds and hearts and start walking an upright path.
It's the only hope.
US30Move SL to BE. It took me time to get into the market this week, my day to day job took all of my energy so I wasn't in the correct frame of mind to open the markets.
Stocks Rally Expecting A Fed PivotThe S&P 500 rallied off of increased confidence that the Fed will pivot their pervasively hawkish stance. This is likely to be transient and the market was due for a relief rally, anyway. We are currently testing a dense patch of levels in the 3740's, and will face significant resistance here. If we can break through, then 3792 is the next target. If we reject current levels, the most likely scenario, we should have support from 3714 or so, at the base of the 3700 handle.
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationPrice is in a very strong bearish trend on the H4 chart. Price should retrace back up to 30051.92, where the sell entry for a short will be. The fact that there is a market gap to be filled there coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci line, which adds to this sell. At 31036.79, the stop loss will be slightly above the 38.2% fibonacci line. Take profit will be at 28436.22, which is the intersection of the 100% Fibonacci line and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 4th Oct 2022The DJI price is in a bearish trend on the H4 chart. In addition, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bearish market. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 30065.17, where there is a market gap that appears to be about to be filled, adding confluence to that area. The stop loss will be set at 31026.89, just above the 38.2% Fibonacci line. Take profit will be at 28408.73, which is the intersection of the 100% Fibonacci projection line and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DOW & the FOX pattern
hey trader,
Dow might be moving higher in wave C by now and could be ended near the targeted area and if the price can not close above it with two days close then expect the fox jump pattern (my idea) to happen and a new low to come.
good luck
US30, long Tuesday Market 10/04US30. This is my speculation for tomorrow. We might move higher overnight. I am expecting a retracement to 1H FVG candle, you can see it on 30M as well. We might fill all of it, might just touch a portion of it - however - I will not enter until I see upward acceleration. We might see a HUGE bears squeeze, therefore I may keep a portion of my positions running.
US30Outlook for tomorrow, my speculation that is. US30. Expect a retracement to strong OB candle at 1H, you can see it on 30M as well. Might fill all of it, might fill half of it. Will enter position after acceleration upward is observed
More Gloom For Stocks?The S&P 500 has edged lower yet again, showing little buying interest even at these levels. The fourth quarter has just begun and all indications point to more gloom for stocks. We have broken our level at 3584, finding support just above the next level down at 3547. Multiple green triangles on the KRI are suggesting good support here at these levels, but the lack of a buyback suggests we are not out of the woods yet. We are looking incredibly oversold and due for a pullback. If so, we must break through 3610 and 3617, which seem to be providing significant resistance. If we edge down yet again, then 3547 is the next target.
DJI Potential For Bullish MomentumDJI has a bearish bias on the H4 chart, with the price descending since August 16th, 2022. In addition, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bear market. Looking for a buy entry at 28454.12, which is the intersection of the 100% Fibonacci line and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line. The stop loss will be set at 27580.97, which is the 145% Fibonacci extension line. The take profit level will be 29653.29, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and previous swing low.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2022 OCT 03
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 OCT 03
Dow Scenario2 breakdown yielded 700pts for last week.
congrats to those who shorted.
Possible scenarios:
1) Short on rejection of trendline // 29639 // 28886
2) Prepare to long if round bottom is observed and market
retraces during an upward move and finds support.
3) Market rotates, then find trades at edge of rotation zone.
(Yellow box)
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
32789 31793 31385
31042 30636 30202
29639 29315
Weekly: Higher vol & narrower spread down bar, close off low
= minor demand
(ave vol on bar itself) = demand coming in
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = No Supply
H4: Vol showed buying on the downtrend. Coupled with possible
SPRING setup
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 3rd Oct 2022Price is in a strong bearish trend on the H4 chart. In addition, the price has dropped below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bear market. We're looking for a retracement sell entry at 30065.17, where a market gap is waiting to be filled. The stop loss will be set at 31020.79, which is just above the Fibonacci 38.2% line. The take profit point will be at 28451.56, which is the intersection of the 100% Fibonacci projection line and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Dollar Top In?Since 1985 there has only been three times where the dollar has been this overbought on the monthly.
The first top was in 1985 and after it hit this area it moved down pretty quickly and the dow jones had a massive move up.
Second top was March 2015 and the dow jones dropped 16% but was then followed by a rally .
March 2015 was also a Bitcoin cycle bottom.
Here above you can see how Bitcoin ,the dollar and the Dow jones all created W patterns at this same time and shortly after tho the dollar reversed and then we get that parabolic move on risk assets.
The dollar hitting this level increases the chance of a rally in risk on assets tremendously.
Bear Wedge in StocksStocks look incredibly weak as persistent risk-off news and a hawkish Fed are impacting the markets. The S&P 500 is forming a bear wedge at 3617, and the Kovach OBV is bearish, and has flattened. We are long overdue for a relief rally, but we will need more momentum to come through before we see anything significant. If we break down further, then we should expect further support at 3584 or 3547.
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn the H4 chart, we have a bearish bias for DJI with price on a descending trend since the 16th August 2022. To add confluence to this, price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bear market. Looking for a sell at 30302.28 where the 38.2% Fibonaaci line is. There is a market gap nearby there to fill. Stop loss will be at 30745.55, slightly above the 50% Fibonaaci line and 61.8% Fibonaaci line. Take profit will be at 28460.70 where the 100% Fibonaaci line and 127.2% Fibonacci extension line are.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 30th Sept 2022On the H4 chart, price is in a strong bearish trend. Furthermore, the price has fallen below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bear market. We're looking for a possible retracement sell entry at 29494.20, where a market gap is waiting to be filled. The stop loss will be set at 29811.78, just above the 100% Fibonacci line. The take profit point will be at the intersection of the 100% Fibonacci projection line and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line, which is at 28451.56.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DOW on a bearish price action 🦐DOW on the 4h chart retest the previous liquidity zone at the 0,618 and for rejected.
The market is now trading above a weekly support and according to the Plancton's Strategy IF the price will break below we can set a nice short order.
––––
Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
• 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
• 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
• 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
• 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
• ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
