DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 29th Sept 2022Price is in a strong bearish trend on the H4 chart. In addition, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bear market. We're looking for a possible retracement sell entry at 30312.72, which corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci line. The stop loss will be at 31361.97, which is the 50% Fibonacci line. The take profit point will be at 28437.21, which is the intersection of the 100% Fibonacci projection line and the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DOW
Dead Cat Bounce in StocksStocks caught a massive bid, breaking through highs, and finally met resistance at 3737. The Kovach OBV has picked up substantially, validating the pivot. It is likely this rally is transient and we will retrace back to lows or support around 3645. But if we can break through 3758, there is a vacuum zone until the next target at 3792. We can expect 3800 to hold as an absolute ceiling for now.
Dow Jones potential bearish Path20% corrections have been common across the landscape of the Dow Jones for the past 100+ years. Below I tried to show potential paths the Dow could take should it decide to move into a bearish (recessionary) type market. I mirrored the Time and percentage drops to the selected years. So far the Dow has acted most similar to these three selections. If the Dow shows strength again I will look for years that climbed after a 20% correction and show the potential from that angle…
DJI - Dow Jones Times for a pump? Or a rally?Clear 3-3-5 hitting 8.236 on wave 5 perfectly after triggering it with wave 3 on 4.236
Whats next?
A) Pump and retest top of the downtrend and fail
B) Breakout of downtrend and rally
Invalidation: A break of the bottom of the channel
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Little note on the PA since the top:
Although everybody is doom and gloom right now, take a look at that price action.
In no way this (yet) looks impulsive to the downside. If down then maybe later after some rally or long sideway distribution
Hold my beer pls
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No financial advice, do your own research, don't be stupid
Some Honesty from a Pro Trader & #StockMarket Technical AnalysisHi all. Scroll down for the market analysis & skip all my anecdotal barf if you so choose! :)
I have been trading a handful of years now, really for the last two full-time, and quite frankly, I'm just wondering how everyone is doing right now?
I'm going to tell you how I'm doing, where I'm at for the year, a brief synopsis of how I arrived here, and then most importantly, where I think we're going.
I'll start by saying, I wish everyone would start pointing at the giant elephant in the room.... the CHARTS. The technical charts.
Those of us who trade using technical analysis have seen these markets rolling over for six months+ now... I am so TIRED of hearing economic pundits, Youtube "traders", "Wall Street betters", you name it, calling out everything BUT the charts! The fed hikes, "so and so got rid of 20% of employees", the whatever whatever report... Regular, working-class people with a 401k need to know the TRUTH. The CHARTS have looked dreadful for months, and when I scrolled my 2000+ something symbols saved here on TradingView today, looking for ANY ticker that had a price resting above ALL moving averages on ALL time frames, suffice it to say, I think I found TWO. So tell me "pundits/youtubers/twitter traders", does it get exhausting having to dole out new excuses every week to explain away another 8% drop here and there for all these companies, searching their product launch failures and which CEO is in a lawsuit from a s*x scandal?
Start calling it like it is and give regular people a chance- the charts all look like death & have for a while now!
So that said, here is where I am at, how I am up this year, my struggles, and what I think of the DOW chart (& the S&P & Nasdaq).
I had a brilliant run from Nov 2020 - May of 2021, like a lot of you, I'm sure. As in, a 20000% gain, in that short eight month period. I am not kidding. Crypto was on a helluva run during that time. I failed to correctly identify the impending BTC drop (and everything else drop), and I lost a LOT. Like, almost everything I made, a lot. Not entirely, but real close. I lost the psychological trading game, in my desperation. I must have had 50 "a-ha" moments in the months that followed. Some new technical revelations. Some old, that I learned way back at the beginning but had forgotten about, all the way back from five years ago at the start of my studying. From Oct 2021 - March of this year, I dug in deep and wrote out what I can only describe as my "Trading Guide to the Galaxy"- a checklist of every single thing I'd ever learned regarding technical analysis, from all of my many mistakes. And then, I began to grind my trading account back up, in the riskiest way possible- Options. I do not recommend this, but it paid off. I hit an Options trade on March 29th, for HOOD, which was the start. Since then, a string of Options plays, grinding back up, slowly. COIN was a pretty solid gain. Yet another on HOOD. LMND. PTON. Little weekly pops here and there, grinding up. I'm up for the year, substantially, and I'm proud of that, but I am realistic- I took WAY more losing trades this year than winning ones. Like, it's probably 10 to 1 losers. Those few good ones erased my losses. That is not a thing I'm "proud" of, because it isn't sustainable. But honestly? Those little pops from options plays (and again, the pickins' were SLIM as hell) are the ONLY thing that has me up. I know I am LUCKY that my "skin of my teeth" strategy paid off this year. Again, I DO NOT recommend it. Sit it out completely, unless you're prepared to lose it all. Which I easily could have. I have carpal tunnel and upped my glasses prescription from the amount of time spent staring at these charts in the last six months.
But now it's time to regroup, and start using everything I've learned in a way that is less risky, so that I can sustain and grow moving forward (aka: regular trades, not *just* options) ...which is what led me to scan over 2000 stock symbols today and want to weep. I am extremely frustrated- I do not want to sit in something for six months just to have it trade sideways. For those of us who have bills to pay, we're trying to make money in ANY market, naturally. So while I'm grateful that at least I'm up this year, I don't want to just stop here.. Surely SOMETHING has to be going up, somewhere, right?? And don't tell me "gold" or "bonds"!! Lol.
VERY few stocks look "bottomed out" to me. And those that do are largely (not always) the ones that don't have a lot of volume in the first place. I am essentially trading inverse fibonacci patterns exclusively right now, searching for fib touches that have hit the extensions multiple times, and where I've seen a long term moving average cross as well. Some things that have caught my eye in the last couple months in this type of play: SQSP, AFRM, LMND, PTON, CZOO.. COIN!
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
One thing I've paid close attention to are the three month candle charts. In two days, we get a new 3 month candle on everything. It's an important one.
Most importantly though, we get a new three month candle on the 3 Indices... and here is my analysis on that>
If you look at the chart for the DOW (& Nasdaq & S&P, but really clearly the DOW), you can see how the DOW essentially pulled a move on a 3 month chart like that of one of the crypto charts had pulled on a weekly chart last year- it had a "blow out" move. A fibonacci "blow out". It's absolutely insane though, because unlike the crypto charts, the bottom fibonacci anchor on the DOW is all the way back in the freakin 1980's. So this means, a DECADES long pattern playing out, that just hit the completion (the 2 extension) last January. Then, we had another solid year of "pump pump pump", hovering above the top, making an irrational high, and now we've begun to topple. Given that the 2 is the top fibonacci extension... what happens now? Well of course, the price usually retraces the ENTIRE MOVE.
Say even for the sake of a cleaner chart, we adjust our lower fib anchor to the 2009 low, a 50% retrace still brings the DOW down to $21.6k, 18k for a 618 retracement. I imagine the S&P & Nasdaq would essentially mirror these retracement moves.
All this to say, this would be the absolute largest retracement the stock market has EVER seen. Again, it's wild to me, because it looks like a weekly XRP or DOGE chart or something from over a year ago- but it's been DECADES in the making. I am SO curious to see what happens. I am not even looking at the war, fed action, gov policy, etc. I am PURELY looking at these charts. Why I typed all this up for you all is because I'm not seeing a whole lot of this. I'm seeing a whole lot of "Doomsday" sounding rhetoric, and I get it, because omg these charts, but it's seldom based on technical analysis, and instead, all this other garbage.
So I'm wondering, for the stocks that I do think are bottomed out (because they're literally hovering above $0), do we see those begin to pump, while everything else trickles down? Likewise for the crypto? I think BTC is going to 12k by the way, but that's another story. I am really wondering what my next move here is. What are you all doing? What does everyone think? Where is everyone's head at given this years trading, and are you up this year? And if so, on what? Surely my balls-to-the-wall option strategy is not the only one (which again, I do not recommend).
I will add: I don't think it would be the worst thing (for traders, that is!), for this market to roll over and for this fibonacci pattern to play out- but some other things HAVE to start moving, and it's freaking me out that nothing else really has been, with the exception of these micro-pops that are quickly erased. Also, I am sure many of you have been shorting, and I know that is an option as well (and I have taken a few shorts), but generally, I like longs- no matter what :) So yeah, here's my analysis/my position/my rant/my musings.
Feel free to throw your input into the mix. I think it'd take an earth-shattering amount of volume to overcome the rollover we see right now, especially in the next two days- so we shall see! Technical indicators alone, it does not look like that is what is going to happen. Happy trading!
DJI Potential for Bullish Momentum | 28th Sept 2022On H4, with the price moving below the Ichimoku cloud and descending trendline, we have a bearish bias.
However, we can look for a possible small scalp buy entry at 28488.65 where the 127.2% Fibonacci line is with take profit at 29653.29 where the previous swing low sat. Stop loss will be at 27589.42 where the overall large timeframe 50% Fibonacci line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bullish Momentum | 28th Sept 2022On the H4 chart, the price is on a strong bearish trend. To add confluence to this, the price is below
The Ichimoku cloud indicates a bear market. Looking for a possible buy entry at 28422.43 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is. Stop loss will be at 27570.66 where the 145% Fibonacci extension line is. Take profit will be at 29653.29 where the 100% Fibonacci line and previous swing low is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
DOW JONES Oversold but that alone not enough for a buy------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)broke and closed last week below its 1W MA200 (red trend-line), for the first time since the week of May 11 2020, a very bearish sign on its own. Based on what the index did on May 09 2022 after breaking the previou Support (Double Bottom), the price now targets the -0.236 and -0.5 Fibonacci extensions on the medium-term.
Being however oversold with the 1D RSI hitting 24.85 yesterday for the first time since the COVID crash (March 12 2020), there is an equal probability of a short-term rebound or even a medium-term one if this is a temporary bottom like June 17. With signals on the higher and lower time-frames being mixed, the oversold RSI state isn't enough on its own to take the buy. It would be best to do so after a confirmation pattern.
The two strongest confirmation signals at the moment are:
1) When the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross, which since December 07 2021 always delivered a short-term rally.
2) A closing above the 0.618 Fibonacci level (now at 31357).
If you take those buys, you will have some ground behind them. Otherwise the are within the 0.618 and yesterday's lows gives a mixed sentiment. Below yesterday's lows, most likely we will see further strong selling, initially targeting the -0.236, as mentioned, at 28230.
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DOW a short term upwards move? 🦐DOW on the 4h chart reached the recent low over a weekly support.
The price is now turning for a retracement nd a test of the 0.5 Fibonacci level can be seen.
How can i approach this scenario?
The overall scenario remain bearish so i will wait for a test of the 0.5 or the 0.618 where i will wait a new possible sign of inversion for a short order
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
• 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
• 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
• 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
• 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
• ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn H4, with the price moving below the Ichimoku cloud and descending trendline, we have a bearish bias.
We are looking for a pullback sell entry at 30105.42 where the 50% Fibonacci line is. Also there is a market gap that looks good to be filled near there. Stop loss will be at 30883.99 where the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci lines are. Take profit will be at 28456.52 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Continuation| 27th Sept 2022On the H4 chart, prices are moving in a descending manner hence we are bullish biased. To add to this bias, the price is below the Ichimoku cloud which indicates a bear market. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 30438.12 where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is. We can take the market gap close by at 30047.79 into consideration for the confluence of this sell. Expecting that gap to be filled.
Take profit will be at 28442.42 where the 127.2% Fibonacci extension line is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Will Support Hold for Stocks?The S&P 500 is still in bear-mode, though it appears to have found some support at 3645 as we reported yesterday. We do appear to be seeing some meager consolidation with a narrow range forming between this lower bound and 3714. A red triangle on this level confirms strong resistance. The Kovach OBV does appear to be trekking upward, which may indicate that a relief rally is due. If so, it is not likely we will be able to break past 3749. If we sell off further, 3624 is the next target.
DJI Potential for bearish momentumOn H4, with the price moving below the Ichimoku cloud and descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the sell entry at 29657.08, which is in line with the swing low. Take profit at 28456.52, where the 100% Fibonacci projection line and 127.2% Fibonacci extension line intersects. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 30883.99, where the minor swing high and 50% Fibonacci retracement are.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
S&P 500 Slammed AgainThe S&P 500 has been slammed by recession fears, a hawkish Fed, pervasive risk-off themes in the news, and a potentially disastrous hurricane barreling toward the gulf of Mexico (oil refinery hub) and Florida. We have completely given up the 3700's, and are deep into the 3600's with 3645 providing support at the moment. The Kovach OBV is hugging lows and appears to be very oversold. A relief rally could attempt 3700 again, but otherwise the sentiment is extraordinarily bearish. Our next target is 3624.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 26th September 2022On the H4, DJI is on a strong bearish trend. We are looking for a pullback sell entry at 29653.29 where the 100% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 27565.24 where the 145% Fibonacci extension line is. Stop loss will be at 31020.79 previous swing high is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 25 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 25 Week
Dow gave out presents last week with a good short opportunity.
Broadening downward wedge = demand returning.
Watch 29639 = CRITICAL SUPPORT.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long if 29639 / lower trend line support holds
2) Short if price breaks down 29639 on high volume and returns
to test on lower volume.
3) Short on rejection of upper trend line // 30636
4) Bullish break out of wedge: Long on test and accept of breakout
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
32789 31793 31385
31042 30636 30202
29639 29315
Weekly: Higher vol & narrower spread down bar, close off low
= minor demand
(ave vol on bar itself) = demand coming in
Daily: Ave vol down bar close off low = No Supply
H4: Vol showed buying on the downtrend. Coupled with possible
SPRING setup
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
BMIX Short Term Target $.10 cents Long Term Target $.50 - $27BMIX had a nice W double bottom pattern play out an exact measured move to about 10 cents. Now correcting and priming for the next run. I can 50 cents come fairly quickly, in this parabolic trend, and then after 50 cents the crazy thing is there really isn't any resistance levels up to $27 dollars. Don't sleep on this one while its under a penny, it could really surprise you. This is not trading or financial advice this is just my opinion. Thank you.
INVALIDATION:
If BMIX fails to hold .009 then a drop to .004 is possible at next support level before the upside break.
DOW fut in easy wayAs we are noticing talks about inflation, rise in dollar etsc.
if we see Dow jones charts observations be like:
from past many maonths is making a Lower highs lower lows BUT now the pattern's changing.
Positives
1. 200 MA support : On the weekly charts, it has got support around 29400 levels of 200 MA.
2. RSI divergence : the biggest reflection we are seeing, we can see little bit of RSI now moving otherways as price is tranding towards.
3. if it jump from these lows, we may see LH - LL pattern being distorted ( its very early to say this, but major positive observation)
4. if these levels are breached 26100 is biggest support which definitely will not be affected.
5. looks much oversold
negative
1. Lower lows
2. volume above average.
3. MACD crossover in negative direction.
but as per my observation, if it sustain 29100 - 29200 levels, dow is ready to move in an upside direction. from now onwards can start investing, market shall reward handsomely.
disclaimer: views are personal, please take your advisers advise before taking position.
DJI Potential For Bullish RiseOn the H4 chart, DJI is on a strong bearish trend. Expecting price to break past 29653.29 where the previous swing low lies, looking for a short term buy
at 27705.84, where the -27.2% Fibonacci expansion line and the massive 50% weekly Fibonacci line lies. A safer stop loss will be at 26798.05 where the 161.8% Fibonacci
extension line lies. Take profit will be at 29653.29 where the 38.2% weekly Fibonacci line and previous swing low lies.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
DJI Potential for Bearish Momentum | 23rd September 2022On the H4, DJI is on a strong bearish trend. We are looking for a pullback sell entry at 30651.50 where the 78.6% Fibonacci line is. Take profit will be at 29653.29 where the 100% Fibonacci line and previous low is. Stop loss will be at 31277.69 previous low is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.