DOW JONES Channel Up top. Sell signal.Dow Jones topped on its 6 month Channel Up, turning sideways for the past 2 weeks.
As long as the price trades inside the Channel, this is a sell signal
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
Targets:
1. 41150 (potential contact with the MA50 (1d) and inside the dashed Channel Up).
Tips:
1. There is a huge Bearish Divergence on the RSI (1d), similar to the one on Jan - March 2024.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW
DOW JONES: Small pullback will offer a buy opportunity.Dow Jones is about to turn neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 57.040, MACD = 399.580, ADX = 38.469) as it crossed below its 4H MA50, withi the 4H RSI already on a bearish divergence, pointing to a short term correction. We expect that to be on or a little under the 4H MA200 and then rebound (over the 0.5 Fibonacci level) like the September 11th low. Like then, we are targeting the 1.236 Fibonacci extension (TP = 43,200).
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DOW JONES Pull-back possible but maintain long-term perspectiveA little more than 2 months ago (July 25, see chart below) we argued that Dow Jones' (DJI) correction wasn't over and called for a deeper buy, setting then a long-term Target of 42400:
The Target got finally hit on Friday, giving us an excellent risk/ reward ratio on our investment. As however the price almost reached the top of the 2-year Channel Up, we have to issue a warning for a potential short-term correction.
The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has successfully supported on September 11 last time and won't be odd to see another re-test after almost a month. The similarities after all between the first part of the 2-year Channel Up and the second (the one we're currently in) are still noticeable and on 1D RSI terms we may be symmetrically around the November 20 2023 level.
However, we may see this time the Channel Up break to the upside for the first time after the elections. Regardless of the short-term volatility, our medium-term Target as we will be heading into December is 44500. That is the 2.5 Fibonacci extension, similar to where the April 01 High was priced.
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US30 (DowJones) - Daily Bearish SetupThe BLACKBULL:US30 index experienced a bullish spike, followed by a period of consolidation within a bullish channel. However, after a fake breakout above the upper boundary of this channel, it appears that the index could be poised for a downward correction. Based on the technical analysis, a fall toward the lower boundary of the channel is expected, providing traders with potential shorting opportunities in the near term.
Fundamentally, stock market volatility tends to rise during September, a historically weak month for stocks. This pattern is often attributed to traders returning from summer vacations, rebalancing portfolios, and increased bond offerings, which divert capital away from equities. In 2024, this volatility is further exacerbated by uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s rate decisions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Investors are closely watching labor market data, inflation trends, and the Fed’s stance on potential rate cuts, all of which could impact market sentiment and drive further fluctuations in stock prices.
With the TVC:DJI at the top of the bullish channel and signs of weakness after the fake breakout, a pullback to the lower end of the channel seems likely. Traders should stay cautious and monitor key economic events and technical signals for opportunities to re-enter positions at more favorable levels.
(DJI) Dow Jones Index Shooting Star Topping TailDow Jones Index has a shooting star topping tail and there is high probabilities this is the top for DJI. It's time for markets to start pricing this upcoming depression. The only thing that would cancel out this topping tail is a close above it.
Welcome to the great depression 20-30 year bear market is coming
DOW JONES may be entering a wide 4 month consolidation phaseDow Jones / US30 reached the top of the historic Channel Up that started 2 years ago on October 3rd.
Technically that calls for a strong short. Last time that happened in April 1st, the index turned sideways on a wide consolidation.
The other 2 Higher High rejections caused Channel Down corrections.
Technically the time to rebound again will be closer to the 1week MA50 but that can be in December.
Until then, buy low and sell high within 42250 and 43350.
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Key Breakout at 42,290 to Determine Bullish or Bearish TrendDow Jones Technical Outlook:
The price should break 42290 to start a bullish trend till 42800,
Otherwise, as long as trades under 42290 and 42210 will be a bearish trend toward 41960 and 41775
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 42290
Resistance Levels: 42450, 42700, 43040
Support Levels: 42080, 41960, 41770
Trend Outlook:
Bearish as long as trades under 42290
Bullish by breaking 42290
DOW JONES: At the top of the six month Channel Up.Even though Dow Jones has reached the top of its Channel Up pattern, it remains on very balanced bullish technicals on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 62.120, MACD = 487.030, ADX = 32.488). Our trading plan will be based upon breakouts. As long as the price remains under the top of the Channel Up and over the dashed trendline of the August wave, it is a no action (do nothing). If it crosses above the top of the Channel Up, it's a buy (TP = 43,500) as most likely we will see an extension of the wave to a new +8.28% rise. If the price crosses under the dashed trendline, its a sell (TP = 40,900) to the 1D MA50 at least.
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DOW JONES shows no signs of slowing down.Those of you who are worried if the upcoming November U.S. Presidential Elections or medium-term pull-backs (such as those of July and April 2024 or August - October 2023), pose a threat to your investments, you have a strong reason to relax and feel safe and that is the current chart.
On this 1M time-frame analysis, we see Dow Jones (DJI) in almost the past 30 years (since late 1997) and the Cycles that have defined its Tops and Bottoms. As you can see, initially there is a clear (green) Channel Up that is always trading above the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), leading to the eventual Top, which in turn initiates the Bear Cycle (red Arc).
The use of the Sine Waves make a great fit for the bottoms in particular. It is interesting to mention that the time period between the end of each (green) Channel Up and the start of the next one is approximately 40 months (3.3 years). Also since the 2008 Housing Crisis, we can see that a wide Channel Up has been the dominant pattern driving the expansion of Dow.
With the above information in mind, we can reach the conclusion that the index is only now entering that aggressive green Channel Up of the Bull Cycle, meaning that the Cycle is far from over and if anything, we are approaching its middle. In fact, the 3.3 year (40 month) time gap has just been completed, so there is a full Channel Up expansion ahead of us.
Now, how high can that get? Well if each Bullish Leg of the 2008 emerged Channel Up is 40% less than the previous, then we are looking for at least a +100% rise from the September 2022 bottom, giving us a rough 57000 Target on a 5-year horizon. Again that doesn't mean that we won't have medium-term pull-backs (like those mentioned in the opening paragraph) along the way, they are necessary and they reset the prices in order to attract more liquidity and investors, but on the long run you can feel comfortable holding your stocks.
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DOW JONES Is a post Fed decline valid before an October rally?The day has come when the Fed will finally cut the Interest Rates for the first time since the early 2022 hike cycle and the question in the market is whether it will be by -0.25% or -0.5%.
High volatility is expected intra-day but technically Dow Jones (DJI) remains within an uptrend (Channel Up) both medium-term (5-months) and long-term (2 years). The last support and bounce was offered by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on September 11 and that broke the remarkable symmetry that the index had so far with the March - August 2023 fractal.
That fractal suggested that after a (dotted) Channel Up, the index should make a correction below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but on September 11 instead of breaking below the 1D MA50, the index rebounded (as mentioned above) and diverged from the fractal.
This means that the Bullish Led (green Channel Up) may this time start earlier and the rally may break above the 2-year Channel Up and finally deliver a new long-term pattern, possibly more aggressive.
Seasonality however is a big factor for investors and as we can see, the last two Septembers (2023, 2022) have been bearish, extending corrections that started in August but eventually managed to price a bottom in October.
As a result, any remark by Chair Powell during the press conference that isn't well received by the market, can initiate a short-term pull-back towards the 1D MA200, ranging from -5.07% to -6.90%.
In our opinion, if that takes place, it will be a tremendous buy opportunity until at least the end of the year. If however Powell delivers what the market is expecting (and more), we expect the pattern to continue its divergence from the 2023 fractal and enter the more aggressive bullish pattern earlier. If the more aggressive pattern prevails, a 46000 target is very probable by the end of the year.
Notice that this divergence is also evident when comparing the 1D RSI sequences of the two fractals.
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DOW JONES: Is it forming a BLOW OFF TOP??Dow Jones isn't just having a strong bullish momentum on the 1D timeframe but also on its 1W technical outlook where it maintains a steady bullish overall indicator score (RSI = 64.010, MACD = 036.840, ADX = 29.553). However there are growing concerns coming from the 1W chart as the 1W RSI is posting a Bearish Divergence, trading on a Channel Down while the actual price is on a Channel Up.
This is alarming because last time this showed up was in late 2021 and as we all know led to the bear market of 2022. However the Bearish Divergence prior to that (mid 2017) was false and Dow continued to rise instead for another 4 months before a correction to its 1W MA50. And that is the level that plays the most important role here, the 1W MA50. As long as it continues to support, we will have a bullish trend.
Actually, Dow seems to be attempting a breakout over the Channel Up this month, unlike December 2021. Failure to break though can result into a blow off top.
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DOW JONES: Aiming at 42,300 if the 1D MA50 keeps supporting.Dow Jones is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.462, MACD = 83.230, ADX = 39.913) as it has recovered exactly 50% of last week's pullback. The rebound started exactly on the 1D MA50, empowering the bullish sentiment inside the Channel Up, despite the fact that the price is trading over its median.
If the 1D MA50 keeps supporting, the 1D MACD is near a Bull Cross, which inside the Channel Up, is the trigger signal for more upside. This is a strong bullish case for us and within October we are expecting a new HH (TP = 42,300).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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DOW JONES Nothing has changed. Bull trend intact and eyes 48000.Dow Jones (DJI) is having yet again short-term volatility following the August 30 All Time High (ATH), but as we explained last week this is natural, since the medium-term Channel Up hit its top and was looking for the 1D MA50 for buyers and a Higher Low potentially a little lower.
On the longer term though, the trend is intact and is heavily bullish. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is holding and as long as it supports, there is no evidence showing a correction. In fact, this is the exact same pattern that the index has been following since the 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis.
As you can see on this 1W chart, the market first bottoms on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and starts a recovery phase by breaking above the 1W MA50. After a lengthy consolidation on it with a few tests (to confirm it as Support), it enters a structured Channel Up until the Cycle's peak. The first two Cycles rose by exactly +75% from their bottom to top, while the COVID one peaked at +70%.
As a result, assuming a minimum +70% rise for this Cycle also, we can target at least 48000. It appears that the index is currently past half-way through the Cycle, already within the standard Channel Up.
In addition, you can observe the similarities between the Cycles on the 1W RSI fractals as well, which tend to 'cool down' once this Channel Up starts forming.
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SHORT US30 HAS BEEN PREPAREDTeam, we have been prepare to SHORT US30/DOW at the current market price
Why do we enter the short before the CPI. It a good psychology that the market would expect poor data come out base on last Friday sell off. Similar market expectation.
Short position at 40725-15 , with stop loss at 40779.80
Target at 40592.70
US30 | Trade ideaKey Points:
Tesla: Shares fell 1.6% after a report that the company plans to produce a six-seat Model Y in China by late 2025.
Boeing: Dropped 7.3% following a downgrade from Wells Fargo to "underweight" from "equal weight."
Nvidia: Slumped nearly 10%, wiping out a record $279 billion in market value, marking the largest single-day decline for a U.S. company.
U.S. Manufacturing: Edged up in August from an eight-month low but remained subdued, according to ISM data.
Market Performance:
S&P 500 fell 2.1%
Nasdaq dropped 3.3%
Dow declined 1.5%
This marks the biggest daily percentage decline for these indexes since early August.
Nine out of 11 S&P 500 sectors fell, with technology, energy, communication services, and materials leading the decline.
Market Sentiment: Weakened amid concerns about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions, with September being historically one of the worst months for stock market performance.
Volatility: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) jumped 33.2% to 20.72, the highest close since early August.
Trading Volume: Totaled 12.14 billion shares across U.S. exchanges, above the 20-day moving average of nearly 11 billion.
Labor Market: Traders are awaiting labor market reports ahead of the August non-farm payrolls data.
Fed Meeting: Scheduled for Sept. 17-18, with a 63% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut and a 37% chance of a 50-basis point cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Market Breadth: On the NYSE, declining issues outnumbered advancers by 2.52-to-1, while on the Nasdaq, decliners outnumbered advancers by 3.5-to-1.
DIA $392 PT Sep '24 (Repost)Reposting my DIA $392 target price for September (my previous chart was too messy). It's been in a very consistent channel all of 2024. This means SPY should continue lower towards the $500 level through this week. We will need to see DIA hold the $392 level and SPY to stay above $500, which I think is very likely the case as we go into rate cuts 9/18. The rate cut on 9/18 will very likely add much needed boost to equities to go back to highs before a full on market crash.
DOW JONES correction to extend until the Fed.Dow Jones (DJI) did what we expected of it 3 weeks ago (August 13, see chart below) and after pricing a Higher Low at the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up, it rebounded and reached the All Time High (ATH), pricing a Higher High:
In continuation of that analysis, we now expect the new Bearish Leg to extend to possibly as low as the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which was the case with the May 30 pull-back.
The 1D RSI suggests that a 35.00 value would be ideal to signal a buy (same as May 30, see how both RSI fractals priced the top on the 70.00 overbought limit), while a Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD would be the final confirmation of the buy.
Our long-term Target remains 42400 (+11.00% from the Higher Low, the same % rise as the July 18 High).
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US30 / Bearish Bias Below 41,030 Amid Key Economic Data ReleasesADP, Unemployment rate, and ISM figures are set to be released today.
The price followed a bullish trend yesterday but has since corrected to the resistance at 41,030.
A sustained position below 41,030 will reinforce the bearish trend, potentially driving the price towards 40,800 and 40,480. Conversely, a 4-hour candle close above 41,030 would signal a continuation of the bullish trend, with targets at 41,180 and 41,345.
These economic reports are likely to have a significant impact on market movements.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 41,030
Resistance Levels: 41180, 41345, 41550
Support Levels: 40810, 40690, 40470
Expected Trading Range: 41180 - 40690
Trend: Bearish while below 41030.
Technical Review–Agape ATP Corporation (ATPC)
As investors loom over the slowdown in the US market, the Dow Jones had tumbled close to 500 points in a single trading day. With this, our key stock pick, Agape ATP Corporation (ATPC) sees selling pressure, however a strong support was formed around $1.570 key support level (S1). We believe this selling is short term in nature, and both RSI and MACD showed a trade divergence where there is actually accumulation exercise in place for the shares of ATPC in the range of $1.570 ~ $1.800.
We had commenced accumulation around $1.600 level.