Dow Jones Index (US30): Bearish Outlook For Next Week 📈
Hey traders,
Since the middle of August, Dow Jones is trading in a minor bearish trend.
The price keeps setting new lower lows and lower highs.
This week, the price set a new lower low lower close again.
I believe that it will push the price lower.
Next support on focus - 30400
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DOW
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 19 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 19 Week
After trapping longs, market declined aggressively. Temporary
demand on average volume has returned, which could be a way of
absorbing any long positions still present in the market.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long if 30406 / 30636 is supported
2) Short on rejection of 31385 / 31042 / trend channel rejection
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
32789 31793 31385
31042 30636 30406
Weekly: Higher vol & wider spread than previous bar, close off low
(ave vol on bar itself) = demand coming in
Daily: Ave vol down bar close toward high = Demand overcoming supply
H3: Ultra high vol bar + ave vol up bars = Demand has returned
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
What to Expect with Stocks?Stocks got slammed yesterday after retail sales suggested several areas of the economy are being hurt by inflation. The Fed is still expected to hike rates, and some fear that this will tip us deeper into a recession. Stocks closed lower, extending the worst selloff in over two years. We broke support here at 3887, and appear to be testing 3867, but a green triangle on the KRI appears to be suggesting we are finding support here. The Kovach OBV has taken a sharp dive, and does not appear to be showing many signs of picking up. If we are able to pivot, we will have several levels to break through in the 3900's before we can consider the 4K's again.
DJI Potential For Bearish ContinuationOn H4, with the price moving below the ichimoku cloud and descending trendline, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop from the sell entry at 31048.46, which is in line with the swing low and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement to the take profit at 30166.01, where the swing low is. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 31808.31, where the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is.
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DJI Potential Bearish Momentum | 16th September 2022On the H4, DJI is on a strong downward trend. Looking for a pullback sell entry at 31604.49 where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement line is with the take profit at 30143.93 where the previous swing low and 100% projection is at. Stop loss will be at 32504.04 where the swing high is.
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US30, are sellers getting ready to test 30,550? In today’s video, we are looking at the US30. We start with a longer-term view and move down to the short term. Overall, the market continues to trade in a corrective phase that could be called a bear market.
The issue we see here was the last relief rally that broke the downtrend. While it did upset the pattern of the downtrend, sellers now look to have broken that trend, and Tuesday’s session could be a bit more than an exhaustion bar as sellers so far today have made a new LL maintaining a normal pattern of trend.
After yesterday’s latest move lower, could we be set to see 30,550 retested by sellers? That could become an important point if buyers can hold it. We will then look to see if a new LH and retest of the area could re-confirmed. Otherwise, a new break could set up a new move that could test the 30,000 area.
A lot will depend on the current inflation outlook guided by future data and the Fed. Interesting times. We love hearing from you, so please drop us a comment on your thoughts.
Enjoy your Friday and good trading.
Traders Vs Investors fight evident in S&P500 chartsIts easy Identifiable from the SP:SPX charts, that the SHORT sellers want to keep the Index below the Red trendline the moment it touched it.
Investors or we better call it the BULLS, want to change this scenario quickly and want to take the S&P500 out of this trading range shown in charts.
Tomorrow could be a make or break day, but always remember Investors (the BULLS) win in long term, so we might see this range being BROKEN on the higher side very soon.
Regards,
Anshul
DJI Potential Bearish Momentum | 15th September 2022On the H4, the price seems to be in a descending trend hence we're looking for a sell entry now at 31048.46. Take profit will be below the previous swing low at 29199.35 where there is an old support level. Stop loss will be at 32504.04, where the most recent swing high is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
How to stonk : 10 minute guide to stock market history and valueI made this video for my 20 year friends who dont have a clue and dont know where to get one :D Dont be a dummy and please do your homework. we must be familiar with history so we know what the heck we are dealing with. On weekends, its nice to re visit these long term valuations charts to remind ourselves what the big picture looks like.
SPX SPY QQQ DIA
Stocks Edge Higher Ahead of CPI DataStocks have edged higher, breaking through to our next target of 4122, exactly as we predicted yesterday. Stocks are up ahead of key US inflation data, expected to come in at 8.0% , which is still high, but hopefully at least plateauing. It looks like we are meeting some resistance as confirmed by red triangles accumulating on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still strong but may be rounding off slightly. While we may be in for a retracement, if momentum can sustain, then 4144 or 4178 are reasonable targets. If we reject current levels watch 4068 for support.
DOW JONES invalidating bearish patterns, targeting 34000 again.The Dow Jones Index (DJI) closed yesterday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as it is extending the rebound we called on our previous analysis:
As you see, that rebound came exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 17 Low and was the second (July 14 the first) time it held, making it the short-term Support. What Dow achieved with that 1D candle close above the 1D MA50, is to invalidate the February 24 - April 28 2022 fractal, which by that time was similar but failed to break and close above its 1D MA50 and eventually got sold aggressively.
What makes the current rebound potentially having a long-term effect is 1) the 1D RSI rebound on its multi-year Oversold Zone and 2) the Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD, which within 2022 always delivers at least a +8% rebound. Such % rise would be the test of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is our medium-term target. As mentioned numerous times before, in order to commit to long-term buying we would like to see the index close above the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line) first, which provided the rejection on the August 16 High.
So far the medium-term trading strategy is to buy every pull-back on the Higher Lows trend-line/ RSI oversold zone. A break below that level, we'll consider a bearish signal, targeting the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
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The S&P 500 Regains the 4K'sStocks have broken out, climbing significantly and reestablishing the 4K's. We have broken through 4009, and just broke out past the next level at 4068. We have already crossed one vacuum zone, and appear to be breaking out into another. If momentum continues today, then 4122 is the next target. The Kovach OBV has picked up sharply, suggesting there might be some serious legs to this rally. If not, 4009 should provide support again.
Dow Jones, in next days. US30Hello my friends, Everything is clear on the chart for you like always. There is a temporary upward trend so in pullback we can enter the buy position. Monitor the price's action in the circles.
Good luck.
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A traders’ week ahead playbook – rolling with a positive stance We roll into the new trading week with risk and sentiment on the front foot – a broadly weaker USD, a slight dip in US real rates and a 5% rise WoW in reserve liabilities (on the Fed’s balance sheet) all working concurrently as a tailwind. Certainly, the correlation with reserves seems key and where reserves go risky assets head in obedience – liquidity is always king.
A lower VIX index into 22.8% and a pullback in S&P500 1-month put skew is indicative of funds reduction equity hedges, and we can see 20-day S&P500 realised vitality in decline, which suggests volatility targeting funds are increasing capital into the equity markets – it’s all flow that driving, and when we add in a solid Chinese credit data (August aggregate financing printed CNY2430b from CNY756b in July) and we see the AUD having a staggering move. Crypto too is having some fun, notably Bitcoin which eyes a test of $22k.
We watch for how Asia takes the US lead and runs with it – futures markets indicate Asian equity markets will open c 1% higher, but will traders sustain the bid after the cash market unwinds or will they fade the strength? The early session could hold important intel on market psychology.
As we note below there is a clear focus on US CPI – that is the marquee event risk this week, and while the momentum favours long equity, short USD for a tactical short-term trade, a hot CPI number will hurt. This is a dark sinister market and if you don’t have an open mind and are prepared to react to sentiment that can and will change on a dime, then you’ll feel it if using leverage – which is why we respect it, utilise in accordance to market volatility and accompany with correct position sizing, relative to the size of the account.
Central bank speeches – the Fed are in a black period ahead of the 21 Sept FOMC meeting, where I am sure many in the market will welcome a lack of inputs from the various Fed members. The ECB will, however, be active, with 9 separate speeches that could impact EU assets – the market is already leaning towards another 75bp hike in October (currently there’s a 64% chance of a 75bp hike) - the increasing focus though is on clarity on ECB Quantitative Tightening (QT), a factor that may not come this week, but will almost certainly be the core focus in the 27 October ECB meeting. With that in mind, the EUR should become sensitive to Italian BTP - German bund yield spreads – currently at 232bp, if this spread pushes closer to 300bp (or 3%) then the EUR may attract sellers.
Keep an eye on any further jawboning from the BoJ/MoF, who have done a good job of causing JPY shorts to part cover. I still don’t buy intervention at this stage and feel USDJPY needs to be closer to ¥147.00 to really be in play – we’d need a huge beat to US CPI for USDJPY to march towards that zone and we know any moves into ¥145 will get officials out on the wires, causing some anxiety from funds to hold JPY shorts.
Rates Review – what’s priced into interest rate market and the step up (in basis points) to the following meeting
On the data side – the key event risks:
13 Sept – UK jobs numbers (16:00 AEST) – the UK labour market is healthy at present, and we see no reason for that to change just yet – watch weekly earnings with expectations the 3m/YoY pace rises to 5.1% (from 4.7%) which supports the argument for higher inflationary forces. Unless we see a big miss/beat, the labour market data is unlikely to move the GBP too intently.
13 Sept – German ZEW Survey (19:0 AEST) – the market expects further deterioration in the ‘expectations’ survey (-60 from -55.3) and the ‘current situation’ survey (-52.1 vs -55.3) – which could have a modest impact on the EUR and GER40 but hard to see a huge vol move.
13 Sept – US CPI (22:30 AEST) – the marquee event that could rock all markets – the consensus expects a -0.1% MoM, which if true would be the first decline since May 2020 - this would lead the year-on-year CPI clip to fall to 8.0% (from 8.5%) – the economist’s range of estimates sits between 7.9% and 8.3%. Psychologically, a number below 8% could offer relief for risky assets, even if core inflation should increase though a touch to 6.1%. Watch shelter inflation closely for trends here. With 73bp of hikes priced for the 21 Sept FOMC meeting, the market is feeling confident that even an improved CPI print would not deter a 75bp hike – a view installed by Fed member James Bullard on Friday. Still, a headline CPI print below 8% and the USD should fall, and gold, crypto and NAS100 should rise strongly. A print above 8.4% would send risky assets lower.
14 Sept – UK CPI (16:00 aest) – the market is eyeing UK CPI to remain unchanged at 10.1%, with the range of estimates seen between 9.7% to 10.8% - the market is pricing 67bp of hikes at the 22 Sept BoE meeting (i.e 68% chance of a 75bp hike), so the inflation print could clearly affect that pricing. GBPUSD has rallied nicely off the March 2020 lows of 1.1412, but the upside should be capped into 1.1760 this week. GBPUSD 1-week implied vols closed at 12.27%, which offers a 167-pip move (higher or lower) on the week. GBPAUD shorts look a better play, especially if we get a weak US CPI, where a downside break of 1.6870 could start a bear trend.
15 Sept – Aussie jobs numbers (11:30 AEST) – the market is expecting 35k net jobs to be created in August (economists’ range is 110k to 10k jobs) – the U/R is expected to remain unchanged at 3.4%, but obviously that will be driven by the participation rate (consensus 66.5%) – The AUD obviously most sensitive here, where the risks are for a bigger negative reaction. With the labour market in good health, it's hard to see a number that price ‘expectations’ closer to 50bp for the 4 Oct RBA meeting.
16 Sept – China Industrial production (consensus at 3.8% vs 3.8% prior), retail sales (3.2% vs 2.7% in July) and fixed asset investment (5.5% vs 5.7% -all 12:00 AEST) – China's growth has been a clear issue, so these data points will be watched closely. Also, during the week (no set time) the PBoC may disclose changes to the MLF (Medium-Lending facility) – the consensus is the 1-year facility rate is unchanged at 2.75% - risky assets would welcome a cut here.
17 Sept – US Uni of Michigan survey and 1- & 5-10-year inflation expectations – the market expects a slight lift in consumer confidence, while 1-year inflation expectations are eyed to fall to 4.6% (from 4.8%), and longer-run inflation to remain at 2.9%. USD longs may cover hard if we saw a 5-10yr print below 2.7%, although their confidence will be shaped by the CPI print on Tuesday.
Good luck to all,
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 12 Week
US30USD YM1! DOW 2022 SEP 12 Week
Last week's Scenario1 long on support of dotted trend line was good.
Caution: long trap observed, do not chase long.
Possible scenarios:
1) Long if 31450 / 31864-32029 is supported
2) Short on rejection of solid trend line / 32546
3) if triangle formation observed there may be short opportunity
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
32546 32029 31864
31450 30975 30406
Weekly: Low vol up bar close off high = minor weakness
Daily: Low vol up bar close off high = weakness
H4: Low vol narrow up bars + narrow close, followed by
ave vol up bar + UT bar = weakness
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
