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According to the specific structure of the distribution, it is in the final phase and soon gold will fall to the specified level. (( This analysis is based on supply and demand style as well as Wyckoff and Dow theory. ))
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DOW
Combined US Indexes shows imminent troublesThe week earlier saw the combined index chart log a double top, where last week started to break down. By midweek, the gap (from the previous rally after a breakout) closed. The week ended with a gap reopening.
On Friday, this would normally signal a reversal and a bullish reopening of the gap, but it looks a lot less likely given that the MACD is clearly downtrending, as well as the VolDiv confirming bearishness in more ways than one... going below zero line, etc.
So, for what it is worth, the reopening is likely to be a flash in the pan, and once it makes a lower low next week, it would really let it go - DOWN
DOW JONES Correction isn't over yet. See where to buy.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) made initially a direct hit on our July 05 (see 1st chart below) 41000 Target and following the rejection then, is on its way of hitting the 39200 downside Target (July 17, 2nd chart below) as well:
Zooming out to the long-term pattern again after a while, we can still see that the dominant technical structure is a Channel Up that first started on the September 30 2022 inflation crisis bottom.
On the more medium-term, we can isolate a (dashed) Channel Up that started on the April 19 2024 Low. It appears that the current correction is technically its new Bearish Leg. Symmetrically, we should be expecting the new Higher Low to make contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is our first buy entry.
The second is just below the 0.5 Fibonacci Channel level, which can potentially make near contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), a strong long-term Support. That scenario is drawn based on the October 27 2023 bottom which was after a symmetrical correction (-9.25%) with the March 20 2023 bottom. Similarly, the current Bearish Leg could be symmetrical (-6.84%) with the correction that led to the April 18 2024 Low.
For both buy entries, our new long-term Target will be 42400 (Higher High on the medium-term Channel Up).
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DOW JONES Top of its Channel. Sell opportunity.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) hit our 41000 Target as projected on our last analysis (July 10, see chart below) and reached the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 3-month Channel Up:
The Bullish leg competed a rise around the same levels as the previous one (7.87% against 7.65%), so we can assume the symmetry will continue to shape within this pattern and affect the Bearish Legs too.
The previous Bearish Leg made a -5.14% decline. Our Target is 39200, marginally above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
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Dow Jones Sustains Growth: Short-Term Bullish Strategies in PlayDuring the Wednesday session in London, the Dow Jones continued its upward trajectory. After experiencing a pullback at the $39,000 mark, the price resumed its ascent, forming a bullish candle. Our analysis suggests that the price is likely to continue rising until it reaches the Supply area, where we anticipate a potential correction.
In the meantime, we are focusing on short-term positions on lower timeframes to capitalize on this bullish continuation. These positions are aimed at taking advantage of the ongoing upward momentum as the price approaches the Supply area. By carefully monitoring the market and adjusting our strategies accordingly, we aim to maximize our gains from this bullish trend before any potential reversal occurs.
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to 50% Fibo lvl 39,059.Dear Colleagues, in general I see that the price will still rush upwards, because now the wave "3" of higher order is developing.
But I believe that now there will be a correction to the area of 50% Fibonacci level (39,059) in wave "2".
But before this correction, I believe that the price will complete a 5-wave movement in lower waves.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
US30 - Dow Buy OpportunityThe Dow Jones (US30) has reached a critical support zone, aligning with an support trend line. This confluence of support provides a strong foundation for a potential upward move. If the price holds above this zone, we can expect a rise towards the resistance. Traders should watch for bullish signals and consider long positions with appropriate risk management strategies.
DOW JONES Looking to break above the 3-month Triangle.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) has been consolidating within an Ascending Triangle since the April 01 High and recently is being supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since June 17.
As long as it continues to hold, there are higher probabilities to finally break above the Triangle's top (Resistance 1). If it does, the pattern will transition into a Channel Up that will aim for a new Higher High.
The first Bullish Leg extended to as high as +7.52%. The 1.382 Fibonacci extension is technically the break-out target on these occasions, so our Target is in the middle of those levels at 41000.
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DOW JONES All patterns pointing to a bullish break-out.We have seen today's pattern on one of our previous analyses (June 14, see chart below) but on the 1W time-frame:
Today we make some slight modifications as we view it on the short-term 1D time-frame. Dow Jones (DJI) continues to replicate the sequence of February 14 2023 - May 30 2023 and following the latest 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross, is ready to break above the (bold dashed) Ascending Triangle.
As you can see there is so far high symmetry between the two patterns. The 2023 one made a Higher High following the Triangle break-out on the 1.382 Fibonacci extension from the bottom. It had two identical Bullish Legs since that Low.
As a result, we are targeting at least 41000 on the medium-term, which is tightly located within the 1.382 Fib and a symmetrical +7.50% Bullish Leg.
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DOW JONES is on an expansion phase until late 2025.Dow Jones (DJI) closed the 2nd straight green month (1M candle), something that isn't discussed a lot amidst the pessimistic views lately across the market. Technically, since the bounce on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), the index entered a new Expansion Leg inside the Channel Up that started after the 2008 Housing Crisis.
Each Bullish Leg has been so far more aggressive than the previous but even if Dow repeats the 'weakest' one, we will still look for a +75.32% rise since the September 2022 bottom. This translates into a long-term Target of 50000, which can extend as long as late 2025.
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US30 - 15m Buy scalpThe Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) is currently on an upward trajectory, showing strong bullish momentum on the 15-minute chart. As it continues to rise, it is approaching a key resistance zone that has previously served as a turning point. Traders should watch this level closely, as the price may test and react to this resistance, potentially leading to a breakout or a consolidation phase. This anticipated rise towards the resistance zone signals a pivotal moment for US30's short-term direction, providing opportunities for strategic entries and exits based on price action around this area.
DOW JONES Ascending Triangle on its Bullish Leg.The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJI) broke above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) again for the first time in a week, while holding the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. The dominant pattern is an Ascending Triangle and the price action appears to be repeating the previous Leg.
As you can see, following the bottom formation and accumulation (green Arc) on the Higher Lows trend-line, which followed the Bearish Leg in the form of a Channel Down, the previous Bullish Leg (dotted Channel Up) posted a strong rally, the 2nd phase of the structure, towards the Ascending Triangle's top at 40080 (Resistance 1) when it broke above the 4H MA200.
As a result, we are bullish as long as the Asc. Triangle holds, targeting 40000 (just under Resistance 1, bottom of the red Zone). If however the price breaks below the Asc. Triangle (Higher Lows), we will take the loss on the buy and open a sell instead, targeting 37250 (Support 1).
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Dow Jones US30 - Lets attack ATH again!Hi Again,
Today I am sharing opportunity for long positions just before much anticipated FOMC meeting tonight.
Call it a risky trade, but if longing US30 now is risky, what the hell are currencies, gold and especially, NASDAQ and SPX doing ??
The plan is to attack 39700 area and break ATH. Who said 40000 Dow Jones is the limit?
Stop loss up to you. Safe stop loss is in 38400 area and lower due to nature of this structure they built.
Long now and lets talk tomorrow :)
Good luck and play safe!
DOW JONES Bottom next week. 42k long-term Target.Dow Jones (DJI) is about to close a red 1W candle, staying flat basically for the 3rd week in a row. May's Double Top on Resistance 1 (40075) technically calls for an approach attempt on Support 1 (37250) but that doesn't invalidate the long-term bullish technicals as the pattern is a 1.5 year Channel Up.
As a result, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) supporting since the week of October 30 2023, closing in towards Support 1, we expect a bottom to be formed next week when the 1W RSI makes a Lower Low. As you can see, the last 3 long-term buy opportunities have been when a 1W RSI Channel Down (blue) made a Lower Low.
Our long-term Target for Q4 is 42000 (just above the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level).
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DowJones (US30) Bearish patterns and signsIn this 1-hour chart of DowJones (US30), we observe a significant bearish pattern forming after the price action. The market hunted the highs of both the Asia and Euro sessions during the NY session, which typically signals a liquidity grab. This maneuver often leads to a swift reversal, as is evident by the price dropping back down after touching the resistance zone.
The index has broken down from a rising wedge pattern, a bearish reversal signal. This suggests that after the false breakout to the upside, the DowJones is poised for a considerable decline. Traders should anticipate further bearish momentum, potentially leading the index down to lower levels. The break below the wedge confirms that the upward momentum has weakened, and sellers are likely to dominate, pushing the price down further.
Keep an eye on support levels for any potential slowdowns, but the overall trend appears to be bearish for the immediate future.
US30 Dow Jones Technical Analysis and Trade IdeaRecently, the US30 has experienced downward pressure. A bearish pattern is evident on the 4-hour chart. At present, it has traded into a key support zone and there’s a strong possibility we see it pullback. The video discusses the Dow Jones prevailing trend, recent price movements, overall market structure, and presents several trading ideas for your consideration.
Please remember, the content provided is solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice. Trading involves significant risk, highlighting the importance of consistently applying strong risk management strategies. 📈🚀📊
How to pick trades in different market conditionsIn the video I look at two different markets and the resultant setups which yielded the prime trades. The two markets had to be approached in different ways, especially early in the session.
I look through the price action on the DOW and then the Nasdaq. The DOW proved to be more clear cut and a trend style approach while the Nasdaq was very choppy and warranted a range or reversion style approach to the trades.
Still, both were tradable and produced some good scalps although the action had to be recognised early.
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DOW JONES The bleeding may not be over. How low will it go?On our last Dow Jones (DJI) analysis (May 24, see chart below), we called for the high probability of a bearish break-out below the Channel Down, following the 1D MACD Bearish Cross (similar to April 02):
As you can see, Dow delivered, so our 38350 Target got hit, with minimum losses on the buy position at the bottom of the Channel Up. Yesterday's rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) though, is far from ideal and opens the way for more downside.
The chart shows DJI's long-term pattern, which has been a Channel Up since the October 03 2022 market bottom. The periodic corrections through Bearish Legs have both declined by -9.25%, a striking resemblance indeed. Yesterday's 1D MA50 rejection basically resembles those of the past Bearish Legs on March 06 2023 and October 17 2023.
Ahead of the 1D MA50/ 100 Bearish Cross, which could be completed by tomorrow, there is high probability for a deeper Low, at least as Low as Support 1 (37250). This would be ideal as it would also make contact with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 7 months (since November 03 2023)!
After that though, we will turn into long-term buyers again, even though that wouldn't complete the -9.25% decline of the previous Bearish Legs, but in terms of R/R would be acceptable enough to aim for 40000 before the Channel Up goes for a Higher High.
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DOW JONES: Correction completed. Time for a new High.Dow Jones may have turned red on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.469, MACD = -17.010, ADX = 38.217) but it is only neutral on 1W (RSI = 52.498) suggesting that on the long run, these are strong buy levels from a R/R perspective. Two weeks ago we called the current pullback to 38,550 as a possibility but now it is time to turn bullish again. As you can see, on the 1W timeframe, there are striking resemblances with the Channel Up of March 2023 and in today's terms we are on the May's 2023 corrective wave. We expect at least a +13.67% rise from the recent bottom and our target sits slightly under that level (TP = 42,000).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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US30 - 15m Buy OpportunityThe recent price action in the Dow Jones (US30) shows a potential buying opportunity after a significant drop. To manage risk effectively, it's essential to make this buy position risk-free by moving the stop-loss to breakeven or into profit. This approach ensures that even if the market reverses, you will not incur a loss on this trade.
With the current setup, wait for price action signals to confirm the next movement towards the target levels. Watch for bullish signs such as higher highs and higher lows, or bullish candlestick patterns that indicate continued upward momentum. By doing so, you can maximize profits while minimizing risks.
DOW JONES Should this Bearish Cross worry us?The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA) hit our 40000 Target that we set on our May 06 idea (see chart below) and after that experienced a sharp pull-back:
So far this is within the lines of a natural technical correction correction towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which during uptrends tends to be re-tested as a Support. Notice also that this is where the 0.382 Fibonacci level is, an important technical Support during pull-backs.
As long as it holds, the Channel Up has the much needed Higher Low that can enable it to move to a Higher High. We expect that to be around 41500 (+6.30% rise, similar to the previous Bullish Leg).
On the other hand, since the 1D MACD completed a Bearish Cross yesterday, we need to consider the possibility of a deeper pull-back, as the last 1D MACD Bearish Cross (April 02), delivered a -6.88% decline. As a result, if the 1D MA50 breaks though, we will take that small loss and go on a short-term sell instead, targeting 38350 (0.618 Fibonacci level).
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US30 (DowJones) - 4H a bearish correctionThe Dow Jones has recently captured liquidity above the previous high, as indicated by the sharp move and subsequent rejection from the highlighted resistance zone.
This failure to consolidate above the resistance suggests that the bullish momentum has temporarily exhausted, and we could see a retracement.
The price is likely to pull back to the green support zones marked on the chart before attempting another bullish push.
Traders should watch for potential buy opportunities at these support levels, anticipating a bounce and continuation of the upward trend after this correction.