Dow30
DJI, Elliott wave analysisOutlook for DJI on 12h chart. I will update my ideas from last time.
I think we are on sub-wave 5 of wave (5).
This sub-wave is the last motive wave.
If this scenario is correct, upper-degree wave (b) of c will be completed soon.
The next phase is upper-degree wave (c).
It will probably crash.
Last time my idea.
■Feb 10, 2024. middle-term analysis.
■Jan 27, 2024. middle-term analysis.
DJI, Elliott wave analysisOutlook for DJI on 4h chart.
There has been no changes since the last update.
I think we are on sub-wave 5 of wave (5).
If this scenario is correct, Upper-degree wave (b) of c will complete.
next phase is upper-degree wave (c).
It will probably crash.
Last time my idea.
■Jan 27, 2024. middle-term analysis.
US30This big boys came to play with NFP but was equally sorted out without regret.
4H
-Serious Doji
- Hanging man as the closing candle
* Evening Star
1H
* 3 touches on either side of the channel
* Bearish channel confirmation
* Rection and close under 37500
- 37400 can be the next resting place
- 37300 is the next significant level should it fall
15Min
- Price in a squeeze, we should be expecting a breakout next (one that will be very impulsive)
- 37327 area around where double/triple bottom happened
- 37520 break = Shoot up (bullish momentum)
#DOW (US30) to the upside----------US30 LONG----------
I went long on US30 index just now after today's corrective move. Last Friday market started restructuring and stopped risk-off behaviour a.k.a. buying dollar, selling equities, etc. This means there is a chance to go against dollar and to buy stocks, indices in these days. Even if this won't be a reversal on the main trends I still think for a few days or weeks we can see risk-on actions from market participants. Now selling equities and buying dollar are not an option for me.
This is not a financial advice, do your own research and analysis.
DOW JONES (US30)Dow jones at Support area we can buy in here and stop loss bellow the zone or 100 pip an first target of the position first resistance and secon resistance whene price break first resistance you can close half of your position and move your stop loss bellow the resistance near 60 pip
US30 ShortThe analysis aims to highlight the potential downside risks and factors that could contribute to a decline in the market during this period.
Market Overvaluation:
One of the primary concerns supporting the bearish stance is the perceived overvaluation of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Throughout the past few quarters, the market has witnessed an extended rally, leading to inflated asset prices. This has created a situation where the market might be due for a correction or even a more significant reversal.
Economic Uncertainty:
The global economic landscape may contribute to downward pressure on the Dow Jones Industrial Average during the specified range. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and geopolitical events could create uncertainty in the markets, prompting investors to adopt a risk-off approach and exit long positions.
Inflationary Pressures:
Persistently rising inflation can exert negative pressure on the stock market. A surge in inflation can lead to concerns about potential interest rate hikes by central banks, which might dampen investor sentiment and drive market participants towards safer assets.
Technical Indicators:
Analyzing technical indicators can further support the bearish outlook. For example, if we observe declining volume alongside declining prices, it may signal a lack of conviction from buyers and potential weakness in the market.
Sector-Specific Weakness:
Within the Dow Jones Industrial Average, certain sectors might exhibit weakness, leading to a drag on the overall index. Disruptions in supply chains, weakening consumer spending, or regulatory challenges can weigh on specific sectors, influencing the overall market sentiment.
Profit-Taking and Rotation:
Given the prolonged bull market, investors may decide to lock in profits from their existing positions, causing sell-offs and leading to a potential rotation of funds into other assets. This rotation could result in reduced demand for equities, including those within the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Conclusion:
Based on the bearish analysis, a short signal for the Dow Jones Industrial Average within the specified range of 35,420 to 35,455 could be justified. However, it's crucial to remember that financial markets are inherently unpredictable, and trading decisions should be made with careful consideration of risk management strategies. Traders and investors should always conduct thorough research and be vigilant about any potential changes in market conditions.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 12 WeekYM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 12 Week
No change to previous analysis, observing reaction to 34605-34275 area. Last Friday's up bar
showed significant weakness.
Possible scenario:
Short if 34605-34275 is rejected again
Reason:
Higher low toward previous resistance, on reducing volume.
The professionals may engineer a false break to suck in traders unaware of the weakness.
We shall wait to short on rejection of recent high.
Price Reaction Levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 34605-34275
32692 31657
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Ave vol up bar = NTC
Daily: Ultra low vol up bar close off high = significant weakness
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 05 WeekYM1! US30USD DOW 2023 June 05 Week
Welcome myself back from holiday!
Some selling into higher prices, so will watch reaction to 24605-34275
area.
Possible scenario:
1) Short if 34605-34275 is rejected again
2) Higher low toward previous resistance, for long on retracement.
Retracement down bars need to be on lower volume for this to happen.
Price Reaction Levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35750 34605-34275
32695 31657
Price Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Lower vol wide spread up bar = possible weakness
Daily: Higher vol wide spread up bar = possible weakness
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 15 May WeekCBOT_MINI:YM1!
Last week's test and reject 33670 short yielded 270pts.
Market approaching intermediate axis 32994.
Possible scenario:
1) 32994 is supported and market returns into 33850-32994 range
2) 32994 becomes resisted and market head toward 31657/30513
Price Reaction Levels:
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
33632
34275-34605 33850
32994-33195
31657
Price Volume Analysis:
Daily & Weekly: Possible No Supply down bar close off low = strength
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
*For education purpose only.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 MAY 08 WEEKCBOT_MINI:YM1!
Test and reject of 34275 for first week of May:
Entry: 34105 | Risk 100pts (reduced size) | Exit 33674 | Profit 430pts
Now that YM has exited rotation, and tested boundary, we may see the
likelihood of a rejection trade from 33670. Set your alarm there.
Possible scenarios:
1) Test and reject of 33670 = short
Volume Analysis:
Daily: High volume breakdown from rotation, followed by lower
vol up bar close off high = confirmation of supply overcoming demand
H4: Lower vol up bar close off high = weakness
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35228 34605 34275
33670 32681 31657
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
Caterpillar: At site 🚧Caterpillar is at site, working on wave (2) in magenta, which should lead further downwards into the magenta-colored zone between $198.40 and $171.37. From there, the share should turn upwards again, climbing above the resistance at $266.04. However, there is a 34% chance that Caterpillar could slip through the magenta-colored zone and drop below the support at $160.02. In that case, we would expect the share to develop a new low in the form of wave alt.2 in green first before heading upwards again.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 24 WEEKYM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 24 WEEK
Discretionary trade at the 34275 rejection yielded 350pts.
With price failing to reach previous supply level 34605,
could market be indicating that demand at higher levels
have been exhausted?
If so, we may be looking at further distribution (i.e. selling)
Possible scenarios:
1) With weakness observed, wait to short at rejection at 34605 // 34275
2) Possibility of rotation between 33670 - 34275 = trade at boundary
of range
Volume Analysis:
Daily: Possibility of buying climax.
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35228 34605 34275
33670 32681 31657
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead. CBOT_MINI:YM1!
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 17 WEEKCBOT_MINI:YM1!
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 17 WEEK
Previous long scenario2 at 32595 // 33590 worked well.
Potential weakness observed.
Market now is approx. 500pts away from 34605.
Possible scenarios:
1) Trade to be guided by channel
2) With weakness observed, wait to short at channel's
supply line or rejection at 35228 // or 34605 previous
rejection area
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: higher volume up bar close off high
= minor weakness
Daily: Higher vol mark up to close lower, and a close below
middle of bar = potential weakness
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35228 34605 33590
32595 31657
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
Walmart: Within Reach 🙌Ever been to the supermarket and couldn’t reach the topmost rack? Walmart seems to have a similar problem, struggling to let go of the mark at $150.12 to hit the turquoise zone between $152.54 and $161.76. However, we expect the share to touch at this area soon to finish wave B in turquoise. This done, it should turn downwards, returning below $150.12 and slipping further below the support at $136.09 to complete wave (A) in magenta. After a short counter movement back above $136.09, the share should drop below the support at $117.27 and into the gray zone between $116.49 and $105.01 to place the final low of wave IV in gray, which should then initiate a new upwards trend. There is a 37% chance, though, that Walmart could shoot through the turquoise zone and conquer the resistance at $161-76 directly.
US - 30min - SidewaysWhat are they doing? What is smart money doing in this range, are they planning a big move for Friday.......... I thing so.
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 03 WEEK
YM1! US30USD DOW 2023 APR 03 WEEK
Price was marked up on low volume =
possibility of trapping longs. Keep your stops tight
if you are holding long positions.
Possible scenarios:
1) Sell if False break of 33590, test and reject of
recent high
2) Long on test and accept of 32595 // 33590
Volume Analysis:
Weekly: Low vol up bar close off high =
possible selling, trapping longs
Daily: Wide spread low vol up bar close off high
= possible selling, trapping longs
Price reaction levels
Short on Test and Reject | Long on Test and Accept
35228 34605 33590
32595 31657
Remember to like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable week ahead.
United Health: Healthy As A… Bear? 🐻… or what was that saying again? Anyway, after a short hiatus, the bears in our United Health-chart should regain their health and get back to work. They should soon push the share below the support at $456.73 and from there into the dark green zone between $427.67 and $391.43, where wave A in dark green should end. This low should then be followed by a considerable upwards movement above the resistance at $501.40. There is also a 37% chance that United Health could cold-shoulder the dark green zone and climb above $501.40 directly. In that case, we would consider wave alt.A in dark green to be already finished.
DOW JONES almost on our target. What's next?Two weeks ago, we gave the most optimal buy entry for Dow Jones (DJI) exactly at the bottom of its 4-month Channel Down:
The price has almost hit our 33100 Target and we think it is time to look into the longer term. We made a case on the idea above that Dow is currently repeating the October - November rally, as the RSI pattern is identical. In addition, that larger pattern could be an Inverse Head and Shoulders, which is a bullish reversal formation, in fact it may be characterized as the bottom formation of the 2022 Bear Phase.
As a result the target can be as high as the Shoulders Resistance, the Higher Highs trend-line. If it is inversely symmetrical to June, we can expect a +12.78% rise. This gives us a target for the next 4-6 weeks at 35400.
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