Will 1929 Repeat?Will history repeat ?
The bar pattern overlapped shows a really interesting view on the market structure compared to 1929. Things are looking very much the same 100 years later.
Price hit the 3.618 Fib extension in 1929 and crashed shortly after with the tension of war at the time, you had the Sino-Soviet conflict with Russia and china in 1929.
100 years later we seem to be having the same world circumstances where there is war with Russia involved and we have also hit the 3.618 extension not only that we have also hit this 100 year resistance line that has caused massive muti year pullbacks whenever hit.
I have been following six month RSI bearish divergence for a while now and it now seems with have broken down from this triangle we were in , take a look below.
Zoomed in picture of the bar pattern
It is possible we have one more upthrust to the 4.618 before a big crash this can take 1 year to play out. Human nature is cyclical we tend to repeat behavior and you can see that in the charts .
Dowindustrialaverage
US30 last 1 month trending channel DOW INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEXUS30 last 1 month trending channel DOW INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE INDEX
US30 AND GOLD Both cannot move into same direction - Be cautiousUS30 AND GOLD Both cannot move into same direction - Be cautious
Dow makes HH, but 55 ema is the secret to retesting the lows!We broke downward out of the rising wedge so beautify. It looked like the top of the B wave was in until price decided to make a HH, which may be a potential bull trap. If we can range between 22k - 24k, my EW count will still be in check. A break below 22k will confirm my count and I expect to see many bears entering here. Another wave up would launch us to the 200ma/ema. Will monitor closely to see if we break either direction!
Dow ready to come back to earth! The market has been rallying on positive news of antivirals and re-opening the economy. Could this be the time to go short. Is this rally over? I think so. To me it seems reasonable to believe that we will either retest the lows or make new lows and follow this EW pattern that I have outlined.
Dow Jones: Bullish MACD but top may be near.DJI is extending the 1D Channel Up (RSI = 60.150, MACD = 193.000, ADX = 15.316, Highs/Lows = 339.6071) after the MACD turned bullish following the January 31st bottom. However as the overall bullish pattern is the 1W Channel Up that started in July 2019, is near its Higher High trend line again, there is a high chance of a pull back.
Last time the 1D MACD turned bullish above the 0.000 mark, Dow peaked at +6%. We are close to that level (29,850) now, so a pull back towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend line) is realistic. If however the index follows the MACD bullish reversal patterns made below the 0.000 mark, then the extension can go as high as +8% (roughly 30,500) before the pull back to the MA50.
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Log study of the DJI in relation to Saturn and Pluto's DanceEvery 29 years Saturn does a full orbit around the Sun. Along the way Saturn makes a few curious aspects to other planets in our solar system. The interesting idea here is watching Saturn interact with Pluto and noting how that affected the market. In astrology, the most influential aspects are square, conjunction, opposition, sextile, and trine. In this study we will only focus on conjunctions and oppositions.
So lets take a look at what these two aspects mean. In a conjunction, two or more planets are in line with each other on one side of Earth. As astrologers put it, it is when planets are in the same sign with less than 6 degrees of separation. When planets are in opposition, these planets are opposite sides of Earth and in line with each other. When we look at an astrology chart we will see that the planets are in opposing signs from each other. The chart would show that they are 180 degrees apart with 6 degrees of deviation.
An example of Saturn in conjunction with Pluto for January 12, 2020
Planet Position www.screencast.com
Astrology Chart www.screencast.com
An example of Saturn in opposition with Pluto December 19, 2035
Planet Position www.screencast.com
Astrology Chart www.screencast.com
Dow Industrials enters target box.Update on channels & count.A month ago when the Dow Industrials was at 19804 I suggested a likely target of 21000-22500 (see link below for discussion at that time and longer term charts). This morning we entered the lower end of the target box I suggested so I thought I would update the channels that I drew starting in about 2010. With the most recent up going channel starting 2016 price appears to be at the upper trend line. Will is stop here and reverse or will it continue to climb the upper trend line until the longer term (black) channel is reached? I don't know. I will likely take partial profits today and hold rest for candle reversal. Hope this is helpful. Take care.
Update on Dow Jones: expect correction lowerThis is an update on this earlier forecast from 28-01-2017:
We have seen a retrace below the 19925 followed by a surge up to 20250 as predicted.
See snapshot below:
It looks like the Dow Jones is topping.
Notice how (on balance) volume and price start to diverge. This is a clear sign of weakness.
The previous analysis is still valid: Expect a notable correction in the days ahead. First target is 19275.
Follow up on my long term view of the Dow Industrials.2 charts.9 months ago I posted a long term chart (link below) suggesting the top may be in using a Fib fan (one fan that I have tried where most of the major turning points actually seem to relate to the fan). In that chart I showed another option of continuued up move. That up move which we are in now seems likely to me could go up to the next fan line level which is currently around 22000.
Earlier in my trading I used a lot of EWT which by the way when used alone is not very helpful (at least in my hands). It's form however is often visable in retrospect. So here is my current view of the EW count that I see. Notice that the "3" waves at all three levels are sideways consolidating triangles.
The upper channel line on this chart is also around 22000 +/-500.
I will post another chart to go with this. These may not help you trade but hope you enjoy it!
MARKET INSIGHT on SpotFX & Equity IndicesIn the recent development corporate America's tone is now changing towards the brighter side. With that said, analyst are looking into the corporate taxes on Wall street which was a concern then. Analyst are connecting the dots where equities would best be seen with the SP500 & DOW's recent rally can be attributed to. With US Statutory tax (ST) at current levels of 39%,while corporate taxes average at 28%; studies shows if ST can be lowered to or near the average then equities would certainly be higher with profits going in the same direction. Thus better benefits directly for most American workers moving forward.
"The Dow Jones industrial average (DJIA) at 18,804.42 remained up 5.1 percent for the week closing at 18847.66. While the SP500 posted 36 new 52-week highs and 6 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 314 new highs & 33 new lows. Nasdaq Composite added 0.22 percent to 5,220.37 resource based on Thomson - Reuters Data."
That is why our price page indicator tracking the Highs & Lows of the currency market including the major indices is part of the trading process that MegaTrade101 describes in its CIPHER3 Beyond Charting & Price Action Analysis. (Key Reference) Note, that there are instances that new highs & lows are made in the same month especially when an increase in price swing volatility moves in both directions.
The Chart above is a Comparison between the DOW,SP500, DXY, NASD, NIK225 CORRELATION. And the summary performance for the week including the Highs & Lows of the listed instruments.
FX & Equity Summary: TRADING RANGE / OHLC / VIEW / NEAR TERM TREND for the week ending Nov 11, 2016. Based on MegaTrade101 Price Page Indicator
INST T. RANGE OPEN HIGH LOW LAST REASON - NEAR TERM TREND
DXY 3.23 TR 97.45 99.13 95.89 99.00 US ELEC UP UP
GBPUSD 323 TR 1.2450 1.2673 1.2350 1.2595 UKCRT PREC PREC
EURUSD 470 TR 1.1057 1.1300 1.0830 1.0853 N LOW DWN DWN
USDJPY 5.76 TR 104.10 106.96 101.20 106.60 N HIGH USD UP
USDCHF 346 TR 0.9773 0.9896 0.9550 0.9870 USD PREC PREC
AUDUSD 253 TR 0.7677 0.7778 0.7525 0.7540 CORR CSLD MCORR
EURGBP 458 TR 0.8877 0.9024 0.8566 0.8610 N LOW DWN DWN
XAUUSD 118.33TR 1305.10 1337.20 1218.87 1226.20 N LOW PR MCORR
DOWI 879 TR 17994.65 18873.66 17994.60 18847.66 N HIGH UP UP
SP500 81.71 TR 2100.60 2182.30 2100.59 2164.50 N HIGH UP UP
NI225 1510 TR 17126 17621 16111 17374 N HIGH UP UP
Legend: US Election, UK CRT - UK Court, PREC - Price Recovery, PR - Price Reversal, CSLD - Consolidation, N High - New High, N Low - New Low, MCORR - Major Correction, INST - Instrument