DOW JONES 25-year Cycles show the clear picture you should know.Almost 8 months ago (April 12, see chart below), just when Dow Jones (DJI) was recovering from April's correction, we sent a clear message not to lose sight of the greater picture and to stay bullish:
The reason was the index' clear cyclical pattern since the February 2009 bottom of the U.S. Housing Crisis. The index has grown by +17% since that analysis (from 38459 to 45080) and we can't see a reason not to complete the pattern and hit our 48850 Target, which is our projection for this Cycle's Top.
On this updated chart is on the 1W time-frame, in contrast with April's which was on the 1M, we have added to key elements. The Channel Up that is dictating the pace of the Bull Cycle since the Feb 2009 bottom and the Fibonacci retracement levels, which show that after the Bull Cycle topped, the subsequent Bear Cycle corrected within the 0.236 - 0.382 Fibonacci Zone at least before the bottom was formed.
In fact, all Cycles hit the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) upon the Bear corrections and those didn't start before the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) was broken (1M candle close below). Our 48850 Target is technically the minimum estimate as that was the % rise of the previous one (Cycle 4), which was the least aggressive compared to others (Cycle 3 = +77.19%, Cycle 2 = +75.09%, Cycle 1 = +99.62%). If Cycle 5 peaks higher, we will draw the Fibonacci retracement levels from that top and re-adjust our expected 0.382 Fibonacci bottom for the Bear Cycle (or if the 1M MA50 gets hit first).
As far as timing of the Cycle 5 Top is concerned, we expect that to be on December 2025 the earliest, again based on the Cycle with the minimum time length (Cycle 3), excluding Cycle 1 which was the most aggressive as it was the first after the U.S. Housing Crisis bottom.
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Dowjones
DOW JONES cyclical trend points bottom is near.DOW JONES / US30 is trading inside a Channel Up pattern for the past 4 months.
Right now it is on a technical pullback towards the 4hour MA200, having already crossed under the 4hour MA50.
The 4hour MA200 was the level that supported the previous pullback that bottomed on November 19th.
Inside this pattern, every pullback corrected to the 0.5 Fibonacci level and was a buy opportunity while the 4hour RSI turned oversold under its 30.00 level.
Time this buy entry and target 45600, which is the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, the level that priced all prior highs inside this Channel Up.
Previous chart:
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US30 Short Setup: Riding the Retrace to Key Support Levels!Since the elections, traditional markets have been climbing to new highs, showcasing strong bullish momentum. However, I’m now eyeing a short opportunity on the Dow Jones (US30) as it retraces to key support zones around 44,400–44,500. This area appears to be a strong support zone, and my plan is to capitalize on the retracement for a potential long setup near the 44,000 price range.
Currently, US30 is trading below the FibCloud, suggesting room for a retrace to the 44,800 level before continuing lower. My strategy here is to profit from the retracement, then re-evaluate for a long trade based on market conditions near the support levels.
Key Levels:
• Support Zone: 44,300–44,500
• Resistance Zone: 44,800
• Take Profit: 44,440
• Stop Loss: Above 45,100
Market Outlook:
With tomorrow being a U.S. bank holiday, volume may vary significantly. I’ll closely monitor price action and market reactions for further confirmation. This trade aligns with the broader market behavior while taking advantage of shorter-term retracements.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
DOW LONGDow at bottom of channel and downward trend line also coincides with 61.8 retracement from low and 88.6 from recent low....Im long from here stop just below the box as the lower box is always a possibility
US30 / Dropped and Still Continue Within Bearish Trend Technical Analysis
Dow Jones Already dropped and stabilized below 44755 which means still has a bearish volume to get 44410, it's possible to do a retest till 44750 and then start within a bearish trend.
To be bullish trend should break 44760 by closing the 4h candle above it, to get 44920
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 44680
Resistance Levels: 44750, 44920, 45090
Support Levels: 44410, 44270, 43900
previous idea:
Dow Jones reaching 44k zone again, bearish movements after NFPDuring last month the index reached 7% increase in price but now is waiting for the CPI data on Wednesday and FED decision in the following days. The price is now neutral around the 44k zone but the bullish tendency is strong as for now.
Main resistance is the 44k zone, upward movements can enhance the actual tendency.
Main Support is 43k and 41k zones. Any movements below the 41k could endanger the actual tendency on the chart.
There is also a bearish divergence between movements in price and movements in RSI. This signals losing of price momentum and probably can warn about corrections in price.
Following this, we have to wait for the new fiscal policies of United States.
Reducing riskiness works in favor of stock indicesIn the recent four-hour chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the price is moving in a clear ascending channel. This movement shows that the market continues its upward trend.
Currently, the price of the Dow Jones is above the support level of $44,534. This support level is very important to continue the upward movement. If the price manages to maintain this level and continue to move above it, we can expect the price to increase and reach higher resistance levels.
As long as the price remains above the $44,534 support, the next resistance target will be $45,949. Technically, this resistance level is a key target for the continuation of the upward trend, and if the price reaches it and does not cross it, it can start a new wave of buying and increasing the price.
Also, considering the strength of the upward trend and the position of the price inside the channel, this resistance target is considered as a sign of market strength, and its achievement can be an important milestone in the next movement of the market.
Weekly Forex Forecast: SP500, NAS, DOW ... Wait For BUYS!The equity markets closed the month with all time highs. Next week, there should be some
carry over. The week may open bearish in the short term, but I believe longs will be the ticket to ride!
* I will consider longs in SP500 and DOW before buying the NASDAQ, as it is weaker. There, I would take valid sells before I short SP500 or DOW JONES.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
DOW JONES (1h) Death Cross turning into a buy signal soon.Dow Jones is trading inside a Channel Up that is long term supported by the MA50 (1d).
On Monday we will see a Death Cross (1h), which inside the Channel Up has been usually formed halfway through a Channel Down/bearish leg that forms the new Low.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy by next Wendesday the latest.
Targets:
1. 46000 (under a +8.31% rise from the last Low, which is where the October 18th High was priced).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) tends to form a bottom when it hits 30.00 (oversold limit). Be ready to buy if it hits that level earlier than next Wednesday.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
DOW JONES: Short term consolidation to lead to 46,100.Dow Jones is on a very healthy bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.961, MACD = 523.800, ADX = 24.313) as the bullish trend inside the 5 month Channel Up is still intact. In fact it is not just intact but the index is basically on All Time High levels, supported by the 4H MA50. The Channel Up is highly symmetric and technically we believe we are on the same level as September 30th. The index was inside a shorter term Channel Up, which after a 4H MA100 test, it rallied to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. The bearish divergence on the 4H RSI was as evident then as it is now. The two fractals are virtually identical, hence we project a similar result. Buy and target the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Raytehon (RTX) Head and Shoulders. Fundamental reasoning: DJT is a peace president vs Biden who allowed build of geopolitical tensions and warfare.
D.O.G.E dept. to radically overhaul the deep state and waste.
Other notable Military contractors include:.
#LMT
Northrup Grumman
Avic
Boeing
General Dynamics
BAE
DOW JONES High Channel Up symmetry points to 46000.Dow Jones (DJI) easily hit our 45000 Target as suggested on our November 20 idea (see chart below), and immediately turned sideways, consolidating basically for the past 6 days:
This is not the first time that we've come across this consolidation within the 4-month Channel Up as the exact same sequence was last seen during September 20 - October 08. As with today's price action, the consolidation also took place above the 1.0 Fibonacci level and once completed, it gave one final push to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension before correcting back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we now set a new Target for the end of the year at 46000.
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Dow Jones_1HDow Jones index analysis Elliott wave analysis style Completion of five rising waves in Hotah time and the possibility of a downward correction Important resistance 44800 The main and important support is 43,900 Meanwhile, in the long term, any low towards 43900 can be bought for the long term.
DOW JONES targeting 165000 in the next 8 years.Dow Jones / US30 is following very distinct and easily recognizable patterns over the years and decades and this chart gives you the complete picture since the 1930s and the Great Depression.
We are currently well underway inside the Bull Cycle, which is the market's 3rd major these past 100 years.
With the support of the 1M MA50, this Bull Cycle (via a Channel Up pattern) is expected to continues rising until the point it breaks aggressively over the pattern towards the last years of the Bubble in 2029-2033.
From bottom to top, the previous two Bull Cycles rose by an incredible +2500%.
This means that long term and patient investors can still buy now and enjot another 8 years of immense growth and returns, targeting 165000.
Note that the RSI underneath the chart is on the 12M timeframe but achieves displaying the situatio more accurately than any. Clear Bear Cycle bottoms and breakouts over the MA when the Channel Up Bull Cycle started among all Cycles.
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DOW JONES New High before any correction.Dow Jones / US30 is on a long term bullish pattern on a Rising Support that extends all the way from the August bottom.
The U.S. elections initiated the most recent rally that has now transitioned into a consolidation Channel Up.
Similar such patterns in the past gave one final High as long as the 4hour MA50 supported.
Buy and target 45365 (+2.50% rise)
Previous chart:
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DOW JONES: A few days of consolidation can push it to 46,100Dow Jones is almost overbought on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 68.114, MACD = 449.010, ADX = 35.064) and is printing a sequence much like post September 20th. That was a consolidation Channel that paved the way to the next bullish wave on the 1.5 Fib extension. This is a 4 month Channel Up supported by the 1D MA50. As long as it does, aim for the 1.5 Fib (TP = 46,100).
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US30 / Bearish Momentum After New ATH at 45,025Technical Analysis
The price recorded a new ATH at 45,025 yesterday before dropping. It now shows a bearish volume, with potential targets at 44,530 and 44,400.
Bearish Scenario:
As long as the price trades below 45,020 and 44,830, the bearish trend is expected to continue toward 44,530 and 44,410, especially if it stabilizes below 44,790.
Bullish Scenario:
The price must stabilize above 45,050, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, to target 45,200.
Key Levels:
Pivot Point: 44830
Resistance Levels: 44920, 45025, 45200
Support Levels: 44530, 44410, 44280
DOW JONES is respecting our major August buy call beautifully.Dow Jones (DJI) is about to hit the 45000 Target on our last buy call (November 20, see chart below) and complete a +8.30% Bullish Leg rise within the Channel Up that started on the August 05 Low:
We are very pleased also to see the index making enormous progress after our big August buy (Aug 07 idea, see below) which was exactly on the last major Low of Dow:
As you can see, we successfully formulated that trade based on the extremely symmetric price action of 2016 - 2017. We've explained the notion on the previous idea, but we will refresh your memory if you read this analysis for the first time.
Dow was already trading within a Rising Wedge pattern in 2016, which towards its end broke upwards and first completed a +19.50% rally. The second Leg of the Bull rally was completed on a +30.70% rise from the pull-back Low and then the markets entered the multi-month volatile period of the U.S. - China trade wars. Key Lows of the Bull Rally were made in October 2016, April 2017 and the last in August 2017. It is important to note that after the August 2017 Low, the index had the most aggressive part of the rally, attached to the top band of the Bollinger Bands range, which is what we've called before "riding the BB wave".
Back to more recently and the Rising Wedge that started in 2022, it broke upwards in identical fashion as 2017 (first Leg +23.40%, Lows in October 2023, April 2024 and the most recent August 2024, which as you saw was our last major buy). Even the 1W RSI sequences between the two fractals are similar. What's left now is for Dow to complete a +30.70% rise from the August 2024 Low, in order to conclude the pattern from 2017.
Our long-term Target since August remains thus intact at 49000. Keep in mind that this is the essence of long-term investing/ trading and this is the strategy with the highest winning rate. Note also that if it takes the same time to conclude as the 2017 Leg did from the August 2017 Low (green Rectangle, 168 days), then the peak should be formed end of January/ early February 2025.
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DOW/US30 - HOW FAR DOES IT REACH THE CEILINGTeam, we have not been providing any trade signal since last week,
however, we did some scalping trade during the week,
but now we are looking the chart, and it is time to consider
We are shorting the DOW at 44860-44935, STOP LOSS at 45035
Target 1 at 44796-44806
target 2 at 44636-65
target 3 at 44336-52
Once the target 1 hits, take some partial and bring stop loss to BE.
Dow Jones Index (US30): Bullish Trend Continues
Dow Jones Index updated the all-time high yesterday.
The resistance area based on a previous high turns into support now.
We can expect a bullish trend continuation at least to 45000 - the next psychological resistance.
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