DOW JONES Strongest sell signal since August!Dow Jones / US30 has hit the top of its Channel Up.
Once the 1day MA50 breaks (has been in support since November 2nd 2023), we will have a sell validation.
In addition, the 1day RSI is on the strongest Bearish Divergence since February 2020 and the start of the COVID crash.
Sell than and target 36700 the 0.382 Fibonacci level from the top.
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Dowjones
Bitcoin - BTCUSD 1hr Just so we are clear... I do not trade crypto... but I can not help myself when I see a perfect setup. It's simple trading once again. we are in a bullish market so we are looking for buy opportunities.
*NFP week! We all saw it, Negative USD News!
BULLISH CONFIRMATIONS:
1. massive head and shoulders
2. Hammer above bearish trend high
3. Hammer above Daily Resistance
4. Higher highs above the previous shoulder
*Do not overthink it. We are in a bullish market with clean higher highs.
*Pay attention to Daily and Weekly Close
US30 sellI had been waiting days for this move and during the week US30 had created equal highs and built liquidity where I was waiting for price to eventually tap into the main supply zone also taking out early sellers.
Upon seeing that volume was coming back into the market at around 2.30pm Uk time I set a sell limit @38950.00 with sl@39000.00 (risking 50pts). Zooming into the 1min once price entered into zone and broke structure to the downside this gave me added confluence.
TP1: 38800.00 TP2: 38650.00 TP3:38450.00 TP4: 38300.00
* Where has the market moved since I entered my trade? PROFITS
* If I looked at the market now, would I take the same trade? yes
* How do I feel about my trade? optimistic
* What do I like about this trade ? precise entry, patience stalking the move
* What do I dis-like about this trade now? nothing just that it may go into next week
* On a scale of 1 to 10, where would I rate this Trade now? 8/10
* If I were not in a trade now, would I take the opposite trade ? no
Dow Jones is going to fall ?? Dow Jones is Working this Rising Channel
Currently Index may touch 41000 on days to come but
As history shows after every rise of 20% DJIA gives the fall of 6-7%
We are little bearish on Stock markets
Well well well !!
If USA market goes down then can we expect overall world market to fall ??
Lets see !!
Thanks !!
Major Indices: Macro SR Fibonacci SchematicsHere we have every major American indices in the world including the S&P-500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and the Russell 2000. This list excludes major foreign indices. For this idea, we have 2 boxes per indices. This is so we have room to include all schematics in the blueprint (chart). Let us define each indices and then we can talk about what makes each individual box up.
1. S&P-500 = (Standard and Poor's 500) Largest publicly traded companies in the US. (Benchmark for the overall US stock market and economy)
2. DJIA = (The Dow Jones Industrial Average) Tracks 30 large, publicly owned blue chip companies. Indicator of the health of the US economy, especially in the Industrial sector.
3. NASDAQ Composite = Heavily weighted towards the tech sector. Includes 3,000 stocks/all stocks listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange.
4. RUSSELL 2000 = Measures performance of 2,000 smaller-cap American companies. There's a distinct difference from the small cap measurement of the Russell and big caps like the S&P.
Now, each set of boxes are entirely different. There are no schematics in more than one box AT ALL. EVERY SINGLE BOX is 100% unique. Now that we know this lets examine...
1. Both S&P boxes include the following. 2 sets of schematics, a set of fib circle pairs, and a set of Fib Forks for EACH BOX.
2. Both DOW JONES chart have a schematic each. The 1st box has a set of fib circles but not the 2nd. The 2nd has a set of Fib Forks and so does the 1st.
3. Both NASDAQ boxes have a schematic each. Also, each has a set of Fib Spikes AND Fib Forks.
4. Both RUSSELL boxes have a schematic each. Each has sets of Fib Forks with the important ones highlighted in either black, yellow, or white to show the variety and how each different set reacts differently.
One must see that the different thickness and colors of separate sets of schematics are to distinguish them from its surroundings. My own forged Market Theory is that there is a BASE SET of Fib Extensions in the background which makes up our structure. Then, in the foreground, we have our Fib Spikes and then we lay over our Fib Forks. Finally, we have a totally finished, CLUSTERED, Schematic. SO, every single schematic that I make is all just individual schematics clustered together.
DOW JONES: Mega sell signal formed.Dow Jones has hit the top of the 18 month Channel Up and is already being rejected, turning neutral on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.769, MACD = 112.170, ADX = 21.784). This is a rejection that can evolve into a full bearish reversal as the 1W RSI broke under its MA trendline. This is important because every time this break out happened (dashed vertical lines), the index had technical corrections.
Inside the Channel Up those initially hit the 0.382 Fibonacci level. Consequently, we can target at least the S1 level (TP = 37,030) but it is equally likely to reach even below the 0.382 Fib and contact the 1W MA50.
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DOW JONES Short-term correction has began.Dow Jones (DJI) has had yesterday the strongest red 1D candle since February 13 and 2nd strongest since the October 27 2023 bottom. Just as recently as last week (February 26, see chart below) we called for a 'very clear bearish signal' as not only was the price near the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the 1.5 year Channel Up but also the 1W MACD was on a Declining Histogram similar to the August 2023, December 2022 and August 2022 tops:
To get a better idea of the shorter term implications of that signal, we view Dow today from the 1D time-frame, where the 1D RSI has been on a Bearish Divergence (Lower Highs against the index' Higher Highs) December 19 2023. Again within the structure of the Channel Up, the same RSI pattern was formed during the August 01 2023 and December 2022 Higher Highs. Both declined by virtually the same percentage (-9.25%).
Such a decline would push the price as low as 35650, which is where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) currently is. Instead we would like, as mentioned, to keep a shorter term perspective here and time a 3-4 week target. Once the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) breaks, it will be the most optimal sell confirmation, with a conservative short-term Target being Support 2 at 37120.
Notice that this would be near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the Channel and if it takes place in early April, it will be as close to the 1D MA200 as possible. In any case, the 1D RSI touching the 30.00 oversold barrier, is technically always a solid level to start buying again for the long-term. Note also how the current top is virtually the same rally % (+21.00%) as December 13 2022. This shows that we shouldn't neglect the symmetry of waves within this long-term Channel Up.
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Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to support area 38604.Dear colleagues, the price rushed upwards and did not update the low 38045. This means that wave 2 has long been formed and now the formation of the upward wave 3 is underway. But we are observing a price gap, and as we know, the gap is usually closed. Besides, it does not violate the wave structure in any way.
So I suppose that the price will close the gap and reach the support area 38604.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
SEVEN SPIRALS JAN !)to JAN 18 A MAJOR TURN EVENTThe chart posted is the NYSE and I have not alt one wave within the count and We have 7 golden ratio spirals in time pointing to a FOCUS Point the week of JAN 10 to the 18th 2024 I am LOOKING FOR A WORLD WIDE EVENT If you look at each one of the points The Markets had HUGE MOVES that started. We are now also above the monthly Bollinger bands in the dji Everytime we broke above the band back to 1902 by 1.4 to 3.45 % btw we only had once 4.4% in 121 years The DOW had a sharp move to the downside 10 % or more and most were the FINAL PEAKS we are now 1.25 % above . BEST of TRADES WAVETIMER
UPDATE: US 30 trend trading haven to 40,000This is a bit out of my expertise.
THe price broke above the pattern and reached the first target.
Since then it's bneen a trenders market. Simply buying, holding and raising stop losses above in case the trend changes.
They have their systems and strategies, and I'm just waiting for a Breakout pattern to form.
However, the price is above both 20MA and 200MA which makes the bias continued to be bullish.
The next target I can imagine is none other than a psychological level at 40,000.
Then we could see consolidation and range boundedness for a while.
DOW JONES - My Stock Market Thoughts Relating To Crypto...I've been pondering this concept for some time now, and it directly challenges the prevailing Elliott Wave Theory's market predictions.
I'm able to offer you an alternative perspective that aligns with a bullish outlook on the entire cryptocurrency market.
This perspective stems from the AriasWave methodology, which suggests that correction fractal patterns recur consistently. It ultimately depends on the analyst's open-mindedness to present this possibility, as it's certainly viable.
These are merely preliminary findings leading up to potential actionable trading ideas that I'll continue to share in the future.
PS: It's Gregory Mannarino that says: "This market if a freak show."
Bitcoin's ValueThe crypto market is booming, and experts predict Bitcoin might hit $200k soon.
Recently, BTC crossed $57,000, surprising some traders who expected a dip.
Stock trading remains steady, with investors waiting for Thursday's PCE index report to guide their decisions based on inflation indicators used by the Federal Reserve.
US30 STILL VERY BULLISH (buys from 38500.0 back up)US30 continues to appear bullish to me, and I anticipate a temporary retracement to eventually mitigate the daily demand zone I've identified. Within this zone, there's also an Asian low that I expect to be taken out through a spring from a Wyckoff accumulation.
Once this occurs, price would have reached the refined 10-hour demand zone, where I plan to enter buy positions, potentially leading to a new bullish rally and the creation of new highs. However, I'll be keeping an eye on NFP Friday to see its impact on the Dow Jones, which promises to be interesting!
Confluences for US30 sells are as follows:
- Price has formed a daily demand zone that could cause another bullish rally for us30.
- Trend line liquidity forming just before the demand which I see as a trap for early buyers.
- Liquidity to the upside still left and overall market trend is very bullish.
- Price has broken structure the upside on the higher time frame confirming trend.
P.S. Should price opt to breach the entire daily demand zone during NFP week to eliminate the liquidity beneath it, I anticipate a temporary bearish sentiment, given that it would have violated significant downside structure.
HAVE A GREAT TRADING WEEK AND BE CAUTIOUS OF NFP FRIDAY!
Dow Jones in Focus: Fake Rally?Today, we're taking a closer look at the Dow Jones Index, specifically the E-Mini Dow Jones Futures. It appears we're in Wave (2), overshooting the target and forming an Expanded Flat correction. If there's a turnaround here, typical for such waves, we might see a correction somewhere between 50% and 61.8%. We consider more than 78.6% unlikely, so we're betting on a correction in the 50 to 61.8% range.
Digging deeper, we've spotted an exciting pattern: a short Wave (i), followed by a long Wave (ii), a quick Wave (iii), and a very brief Wave (iv). This sequence could lead us to either Wave (v) or a larger B wave. Should the index continue to climb, we'll need to rethink everything. Surpassing the $40,000 mark would mean we're entering a new uptrend, requiring a different analysis. For now, we're leaning more towards a downward movement than an upward one. After much consideration, we've decided to initiate a short position on the Dow Jones as a bit of a hedge. We're particularly cautious about unexpected market movements triggered by insider trades. This strategy isn't about putting all our eggs in one basket but about spreading our risk.
In short, this strategy is our insurance policy. If the market continues to rise, any loss on the short position would be offset by gains in our long trades. Conversely, if the market declines, the short trade will help minimize our losses. This balanced approach keeps us flexible and eager to see what unfolds.
US30 - DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE US30 has been in a major bearish divergence from Jan 2018, I think march 2024 will be a month of correction (10%-15%) and then a pickup from April 2024 all the way to September/October when I think the market will hit the top for the US30 that will be around $44,200.
- Monthly MACD (Bearish)
- Monthly Pekipek's Divergence BETA (Bearish)
- Monthly RSI (Bullish)
- Monthly Stochastic RSI (Bearish)
DOW JONES (US30) Trend Following Setup Explained
Dow Jones Index is currently retesting a recently broken horizontal resistance.
Because the trend in strongly bullish, a buying wave may initiate from the underlined
blue area.
Our confirmation will be a bullish breakout - 4H candle close above a resistance line of a bullish flag pattern.
A bullish continuation will be anticipated to 39080 / 39200 levels then.
If the price drops and sets a new lower low, the setup will become invalid.
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GBPJPY - GJ 1hrPull back! SELL Now !
80+ pips on GJ
GBPJPY has made a clean red candle below the support. Now that GJ has retested support and rejected it with a nice red candle we can take sell entries. Watch as GJ is near the weekly resistance . This zone has also been confirmed, so we can see a rejection to test previous support areas
tp 1: 4hr and daily support
tp 2: 3.82 fib
tp 3: D1 support, if GJ breaks below this area look to continue selling
*stop loss can be increased. please use proper risk to reward
DOW JONES Very clear bearish signal.Dow Jones (DJI) is approaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the the 1.5 year Channel Up, while flashing a very unique medium-term sell signal. That is the 1W MACD Histogram, which is declining, a Bearish Divergence that during that period of time, has initiated 3 declines of more than -9% each.
Given the fact that the current Bullish Leg of the Channel Up has extended to almost 21.9%, which is almost as high as the October - December 2022 sequence, we are expecting a medium-term correction back to at least the middle of the Channel Up. Target is 37120 (Support 1) and if a 1W candle closes below the middle, we expect a bottom around the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) at 36000 (Support 2).
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EUR/USD : The Price Will Fall ? (READ THE CAPTION)By checking the EURUSD chart, we can see that the price is currently trading in the range of 1.083, and if the price can stabilize below this level in the 4-hour time frame, we can expect the price to fall to lower levels!
Please support me with your likes and comments to motivate me to share more analysis with you and share your opinion about the possible trend of this chart with me !
Best Regards , Arman Shaban