Most overbought condition 1) Most overbought condition since May 2021 on the weekly RSI 14.
2) Converging trendlines at 38,200 stretching back since late 2021 create solid roof tested 3 times at least on 2 separate trend-lines which would make for a very tough level to break, especially when it's this overbought.
***A correction down to retest the connecting lows trend-line since late 2022 would make a lot of sense even if a new high would be reached in the future, a correction down is very likely in the current technical condition - Which would be down to the 34,200 floor.
Dowjones
US30 SELLS US30 formed a double top on 4h & 1h and now Closed below structure and zone on the 1h at NY Session.
Upon seeing this close and sell confirmation waited for a retracement to @ 37980.00 with sl@ 38040.00 Risking(70 points).
TP1: 37850.00. TP: 37815.00. TP3: 37700.00
Market Bio Feedback:
* Where has the market moved since I entered my trade? In slight profits
* If I looked at the market now, would I take the same trade? Yes
* How do I feel about my trade? Confident & Optimistic
* What do I like about this trade ? Pre-planned move, stayed patient & waited for my entry
* What do I dis-like about this trade now? Slower than usual
* On a scale of 1 to 10, where would I rate this Trade now? 7/10
* If I were not in a trade now, would I take the opposite trade ? No
Dow Jones Index (US30) Does the Bullish Trend Continue
Dow Jones index is trading in a strong bullish trend.
After the market set the all-time high at the end of December,
the market started to consolidate within a horizontal range.
Bullish breakout of the resistance of the range is a strong trend-following signal.
It may push the prices to 38400 level.
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Is failure valid?As you can see, the daily trend has managed to break its downward trend line and it is also in the direction of the weekly trend.
Due to the breakdown of the daily trend line, we are waiting to return to the target area, and of course, we are considering the goals ahead
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📅 02.20.2023
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Stocks at New All-Time Highs Ahead of Earnings: CATThis Dow component attempted a new all-time high and failed. However, it has ample support from the prior sideways trend after the previous all-time high. NYSE:CAT has been over-speculated as it moved out of its bottom low.
The company reports end of January. Watching to see how the stock performs in the next week or so should indicate whether it will be stuck range bound for another couple of quarters or if it will have the fundamentals to support a new high. For now, it has more of the appearance of a range bound sideways pattern developing.
Caterpillar Inc. did well during the years of huge real estate and city development in China. Unfortunately, the great industrial revolution of China is long gone, their population in decline due to fewer births and more deaths reducing their billions. Their consumer-based economy has slammed into Market Saturation as their population continues to age at a faster pace than any nation on earth. CAT needs to find another source for its machinery.
Hellena | DJI (4H): Short to support area 37041.78.Dear colleagues, I assume that the price has either completed the 5th wave or is completing it. Therefore, I suppose that the price starts its downward movement. I suppose the first target is the support area 37041.78. This is the area of the wave 4 low.
Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
DJ30 H4 | Potential bullish breakoutDJ30 is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially break above this level to rise towards our take-profit target.
Entry: 37,543.95
Why we like it:
There is a potential breakout level
Stop Loss: 37,163.35
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Take Profit: 38,020.69
Why we like it:
There is a resistance that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level
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🅱️ Bitcoin Is The Dow Jones In 1968 | Elliot Wave TheoryBack in 1968 the two major proponents of the Elliot Wave theory concept where divided as to the wave count of the DJIA.
While AJ Frost would consider the 1966 peak as Wave B of an irregular top in a flat correction, Hamilton Bolton was looking at it as the 5th wave of a bullish impulse.
One thing is certain, while they disagreed on the count they both agreed that what should follow was a new bull-market regardless of the count and they were right.
We ended up with a triple zig-zag followed by a new bull-market:
We have the same situation today with Bitcoin, people are divided between the third and fifth waves.
One interpretation calls for the top to be April 2021 with the low in November 2022 being Wave C of a flat and Wave 4 of the impulse in a higher degree:
While some others are calling for new lows taking the November 2021 irregular top as Wave 5 of the bigger impulse:
Well, there is actually a big difference with the Dow Jones forecasters from the past.
While they had a different count as to the irregular top, both agreed that what would be now equivalent to the November 2022 low in Bitcoin was the bottom in the Dow Jones before a new major leg up or bull market, our Cryptocurrency analysts, some, are still divided between new lows and a new bull-market.
Now, let me offer you my count, it is pretty simple.
The 2017 peak is definitely the end of a major 5-up wave, no doubt about that, we can easily draw a 5-up wave pattern with multiple extensions.
What follows is a correction, you can draw it in any way you like and here we have an A-B-C or Zig-Zag from Dec. '17 to Dec. '18.
The next wave can be either an inverted Zig-Zag or another 5-up wave, makes no difference, from Dec. '18 through June '19.
This is followed by another correction ending in March 2020 and here a new 5-up wave pattern starts.
From March 2020 through April 2021 we have another impulse and April 2021 marks the orthodox end of this bull market.
What follows is a correction, classic EW theory and you can see it on this chart.
If you want to be conservative or lets just say not bullish, you can say that another correction can follow after the Nov. 2022 low, this is possible and you can draw an upward Zig-Zag or whatever you like, we can only really confirm the wave count in retrospect.
But, if you consider go past market action and the way Elliot Wave theory works, we are set for a new 5 waves up impulse.
Which is really just the fifth wave of a higher degree since the correction from April 2021 through November 2022 is only Wave 4, which tends to be complex, hard to read and long. We have all these characteristics here...
Bitcoin is going bullish... Can any Elliotter confirm/comment if I am right or wrong?
Namaste.
DOW JONES Why you don't want to miss this rally.Dow Jones (DJI) is pulling back on a technical correction as the 1W RSI got overbought (above the 70.00 mark) on the December 26 1W candle. That was basically the first time since June 01 2021 it got overbought and that time also gave a technical pull-back.
What draws our attention more than that time though is the December 19 2016 pull-back when the 1W RSI was again overbought. The difference here is that the price action and patterns that preceded that pull-back/ consolidation are very similar. A Lower Lows bottom on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) that took place on a 1W RSI Higher Lows Bullish Divergence, gave way to a break and sustainable rise above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Following the current pull-back/ consolidation we are at, a very strong Channel Up took place.
As a result, even though the sentiment is bearish on the short-term, possibly until the January 31 Fed Meeting, it is clear that the long-term trend is bullish. Every such correction has high probabilities from now on to be a buy opportunity. The target can be as high as 43000 within 2024.
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Dow failed to breakout of the 1929 & 2000 Trend - Crash IncomingThese are serious setups, I found a trendline that connected to the Feb 2020 top and it drop from there the next day. This is BIG we failed to breakout of the trendline connecting 1929 to 2000, it went above and came back under, this is VERY Bearish. First target 26000 under that it gets nasty.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 17/01/2024We made a new ATH in the DOW JONES so the bullish sequence in the higher time frame continues. We believe we are now working on a wave ((3)). Alternatively, the wave ((1)) might still be ongoing as a leading diagonal. In the lower time frame, it looks like we are moving corrective and that we have not started wave 5 yet. We could be close to complete another WXY structure.
Three waves in a larger degree? Continuation of Bullish MarketDear FRIEND,
I hope you're doing well and that the new year has started on a good note for you. I wish you success in your business endeavors and a happy new year with your loved ones.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave principle, I find it to be a valuable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering various scenarios that are likely to occur in the market.
I am sharing my analysis with you. However, please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My goal is to share my unbiased analysis with you so that you can use it as a guide to make informed decisions.
In the attachment, I have included my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand (although having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily).
I have been studying the Elliott Wave principle for almost three years now. With time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has increased. What I have achieved so far is a legacy of a genius named Ralph Nelson Elliott, and I am truly satisfied with my progress. May his soul rest in peace and his memory be cherished.
Thank you for your support so far. I am grateful and will always remember your kindness. Please feel free to share your thoughts and feedback with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
(Mr. Nobody)
DOW JONES: Top is being formed, 1D RSI Bearish Divergence.Dow Jones has been trading sideways since the December 28th 2023 High, having tested that Resistance after another three times. Naturally the 4H timeframe is neutral and the 1D technical outlook is about to as well (RSI = 56.255, MACD = 185.180, ADX = 33.836). The 1D RSI in particular is under a LH trendline, which is of the same shape as August 1st 2023, May 1st 2023 and December 13th 2022, all major market tops of the past 13 months.
This is a strong technical Bearish Divergence and consequently we expect a pullback to at least the 1D MA50. Based on those past peaks and corrections though, we should be expecting at least a 0.382 Fibonacci pullback, thus our target is near the S2 level (TP = 36,000).
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Buying is now Detected on All 4 Major US Indexes DOW and Russel showed Buying in the few sessions in the LAST WEEK and today S&P500 and NASDAQ have joined in. UMVD or Unusual Market volume Detector is showing GREEN for all 4 Indices today. Also, US Market Strength Index (US MSI) is showing green in todays session.
Now TREND IS STILL DOWN as seen with the Red TrapZones so, Bulls have a lot of work to do still.
US30 H1 / TWO POINTS OF INTEREST / POSSIBLE SCENARIOS FOR LONG✅Hello Traders!
This is my idea related to US30 H1. I see two possible scenarios where I will look for a long entry in case of confirmation of retracement.
You can see two resistance zones from where I expect US30 will go bearish. In case of confirmation of retracement from the resistance zones, I will execute long trades until the price of 37760.
Traders, if you liked my idea or if you have a different vision related to this trade, write in the comments. I will be glad to see your perspective.
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DowJones on the Radar: US30 Technical Analysis at 37300Hey Traders, in the coming week, our focus is on the US30, particularly around the 37300 zone. The DowJones has been on a solid uptrend, showcasing its resilience in the market. As we enter the new trading session, we find the index in a correction phase, edging closer to the critical 37300 support and resistance area. This level has historically played a significant role, often acting as a pivot point for the DowJones.
Examining the technical indicators, the current correction appears to be a healthy retracement within the broader uptrend. The 37300 zone aligns with key Fibonacci levels, adding an extra layer of significance. Traders keen on trend-following strategies might eye this as a potential buying opportunity, anticipating a continuation of the upward trajectory. However, it's essential to keep a watchful eye on market sentiment, geopolitical events, and any unexpected developments that could influence the DowJones in the upcoming sessions.
In summary, the technical outlook for US30 around the 37300 zone suggests a strategic approach, emphasizing the importance of this level in the context of the broader market trend. As always, trade safe, and stay informed about the evolving market dynamics throughout the week.
DOW Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 15/01/2024 (+ HTF)We made a new ATH in the DOW JONES so the bullish sequence in the higher time frame continues. We believe we are now working on a wave ((3)). Alternatively, the wave ((1)) might still be ongoing as a leading diagonal. In the lower time frame, it looks like we are moving corrective and that we have not started wave 5 yet.
Weekly Momentum On Major Pairs (Week 3/2024)
First Thing First: This analysis is for “general overview only” as it is solely based on price action. That’s why it is called momentum analysis in the first place. Support/Resistant, Volume Macro view nor any other factors are not used during write up. Refer to the individual pair analysis for a more comprehensive write up.
XXX/USD: Slightly Bullish
Gold & Silver: Slightly Bearish
XXX/JPY: Mixed
Stock Indexes: Bullish
BitCoin/ETH: Mixed
Week 3 (13/1/2024)