DOW JONES Critical level separating the Bull from Bear Market!It hasn't been more than a month ago (October 10) when we first posted the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line) as our long-term target for Dow Jones (DJI):
The index came just a few points below it and so far we see a minor pull-back and consolidation, attributed both to profit taking as well as risk aversion before the important CPI report on Thursday.
As mentioned on the previous analysis, the range Dow is currently in is the technical Rejection Zone that has formed all previous Lower Highs of the 2022 Bear Cycle Megaphone pattern, all of which initiated massive selling legs to new Lower Lows. Even though the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) is the current short-term Support, typically breaking below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) confirms the downtrend. Another strong confirmation of the bearish legs is when the MACD on the 1D time-frame makes a Bearish Cross.
The 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line) is practically what separates the Bull from the Bear Cycle. It is no surprise that since the August 16 Lower High, the 1D MA300 is trading parallel to the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2022 Bearish Megaphone. A closing above it effectively confirms the shift to a long-term bullish trend with first target 34300 (August 16 High) and second the 35550 (April 21 High).
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Dowjonessignals
US30 Weekly Analysis 7/11/2022 to 11/11/2022Price currently moving in an uptrend in LTF while making another swing inside a HTF Downtrend channel. And the price aslo has a resistance at 33039 & support at 31846. now if price closes below the support, then it would make a breakout of the uptrend & price might continue pushing down for another swing low respecting the HTF downtrend channel to come down to the next key levels at 31110 or 30447.
However if we see price closing above the resistance, then it could make a breakout of the HTF downtrend channel to continue pushing up to retest the next major resistance at 34200.
US30 3/11/2022the price after strong bearish run and a HTF bearish engulfing candle close, formed a small structure with some ranging on small TF by facing support at 32041 & resistance at 32234.
Now if price makes a break & closes below the recent support in atleast 30m-1hr TF then price might continue its bearish run towards next support at 31719 or all the way to 31193.
However if we see price closing above the recent resistance, then it might continue pushing up towards the HTF Resistance at 32371.
US30 2/11/2022Price after a retest on HTF resistance, its currently on the pre stage of forming a build up or ranging phase. So wait for the price create more highs & lows forming a proper support and resistance in that ranging phase. After such structure is formed, then we can look for trades on the breakout of such structure anticipating if price could continue moving bullish in that uptred or make a breakout of that uptrend to continue pushing bearish on a higher timeframe point of view.
DOWJONESDowjones made double bottom pattern 0n an hourly chart & confirmed it by breaking/trading above 30454 which happens to previous swing high.
If everything(russia-ukrain & china-taiwan) goes well & dowjone break/trade/close above 31021 level then it ll xplode & get ready for one way rally of 32500 in 5-6 trading sessions.
US30 Next Week's AnalysisUS30 currently retesting the HTF downtrendline on a major key level with multiple retests at 33039 which could act as a resistance for the price. And US30 also has a support with multiple major retests at 32212 where price might also come to make some small pullbacks.
So if price closes above the resistance, then we can look for long trades & if price closes below the support then we can look for short trades as shown in the chart.
US30 28/10/2022The price currently moving in an uptrend channel while its also facing support at 31851 & resistance at 32125. Now a breakout of the support could mean a breakout of the uptrend channel. so if price continue to respect the resistance & closes below the support on a 30m TF atleast, then it could continue pushing down to the next support zone at 31612.
Similarly if price respects the support & closes above the resistance then it could continue pushing up to the previous high at 32307.
DOW JONES on an aggressive rally towards the 1D MA200!It was 2 weeks ago when we made a case for a medium-term buy on the Dow Jones index (DJI), against popular belief, as we had early signs that the index made a June 17 type bottom and was about to repeat the June-Aug rebound:
Our view has been confirmed so far and following the 1D RSI break above the Lower Highs and the 1D MACD Bullish Cross, the rally broke above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) with ease and is headed towards the 1D MA200 (grey trend-line).
Today's analysis is on the 4H time-frame, in order to get a more detailed look on the short-term. We see that Dow Jones has already formed the 4H Golden Cross (when the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) crosses above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line)) that comes when the price breaks above the 1D MA50. At the same time, the price has already broken inside the volatility zone of the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels. Based on the previous fractal, we could see a week of sideways price action before Dow targets the rejection zone (and the medium-term target) within the 1D MA200 (grey trend-line) and the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line).
For comparison purposes in order to get a better understanding of Dow's proportionate position compared to the previous rebounds, we've plotted all rebound sequences on top of another (Black line = Feb 24 - March 22, Grey line = June 17 - August 16 and Green line = October 02 - today). Though not 100% correlated, it is obvious that there is a high degree of convergence among all three sequences.
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US30 (HIGH PROBABILITY SELL SETUP SOON) Here is a new update from our previous post on (US30 High Probability Sell Setup) on Friday Oct 20 / 2022, which didn't take place on that day or yesterday as investors this week remain laser focused on earnings from the biggest technology companies for further clues into the health of the U.S. economy, with the CB Consumer Confidence Index is released today at 3:00 pm (+01:00,BST), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) is struggling for a certain direction since yesterday, but here we can see clearly in our H1 time frame a clear divergence from the actual price action on the chart, we still got our EP (blue line) & our TP (golden line) from our previous post on October 20 / 2022,
Keep a close eye on US30 today,
Happy pip hunting traders.
Dow Jones ( DJI ) Next MoveDOW JONES INDUSTRAIL AVERAGE ( DJI )
Time Frame - H1
We have ELLIOT IMPULSIVE WAVE ( Bearish ) in Long Time Frame #LTF
Completed " 123 " Wave and Forming " 4th " Impulsive wave will Reject from Fibonacci Level ( 50% - 61.80% )
BULLISH CHANNEL Pattern in Short Time Frame #STF need Rejection from the Upper Trend Line #UTL
ELLIOT TRIPLE WAVE COMBO in Short Time Frame #STF and completed the " Y " Wave
Sell After Rejection from the Demand Zone ( 31908 - 32176 )
US30 20/10/2022US30 currently ranging in between 30793 as its resistance & 30266 as its support while also retesting a HTF downtrendline. Now a breakout of the ranging Phase might determine whether US30 will continue moving down in respect to the downtrendline or make a breakout of the trendline to continue pushing up.
So if the price makes a break & close below the Support zone of the ranging phase, atleast on 1HR TF, then we can start to look for trades on the short side in short TF like 15 to 30 MIN TF in hopes of price continue to push down in respect to the downtrendline to retest the next support level at 29620.
However if price respects the support of the ranging phase & closes above the resistance, then it would be a breakout of the downtrendline & we can look for trades on the long side expecting price to continue pushing up all the way to retest the next HTF key zone at 31660.
DOW JONES RSI and MACD patterns hint to a June-Aug like rebound.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) has been highly volatile today following a two day selling sequence on last week's closing. Following the NFP on Friday, the market is entering the anticipation mode over this week's CPI report, which is crucial on the Fed's rate policy. Amidst this high volatility we have spotted a recurring pattern, which has been previously bullish on the medium-term during this year's Bear Market.
As you see, every time the MACD formed a Bullish Cross while the RSI (both on the 1D time-frame) bounced on its Oversold Zone and made a Lower High, Dow formed a temporary Low and started a 2-month rebound. During the June - August rebound, the index reached as High as the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level before getting heavily rejected on the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line).
As a result, as long as last week's Support holds, we are expecting a medium-term rebound towards at least the upper Fib levels and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Short-term traders can target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
Remember this doesn't constitute a long-term trend change, which remains bearish. In order to see the sentiment reverse to bullish, we should see at least a closing above the 1D MA300. A closing below last week's Support, should invalidate the medium-term pattern and instead extend the selling all the way to this Bear Market's Lower Lows trend-line at least.
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Dow Looking Week On The Chart Follow Lower Low PatternDow Jones Industrial Average Index View Spot Cmp - 29941
Dow Looking Week On The Chart Follow Lower Low Pattern In The Chart
Important Levels
Above 30572 Go Long For Target 32000 ++
Below 30428 Go Short For Target 28000 ++
US30 (HIGH PROBABILITY BUY SETP SOON)On Tuesday, U.S. indices closed in greens for the second consecutive session as Treasury Yields fell & investors grow hopeful that the Feds will decrease its aggressive tightening policy amidst jobs data, US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) rose 825.43pts (2.8%) to 30316, we believe the UPTREND move will be resuming this coming days & weeks due to the November 08/2022, midterm elections in the U.S.
At the mean time, Here we can see clearly the next move for US30 in H1 time frame, we have our EP & our TP, keep a close eye US30, happy pip hunting traders.
DOW JONES Oversold but that alone not enough for a buy------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)broke and closed last week below its 1W MA200 (red trend-line), for the first time since the week of May 11 2020, a very bearish sign on its own. Based on what the index did on May 09 2022 after breaking the previou Support (Double Bottom), the price now targets the -0.236 and -0.5 Fibonacci extensions on the medium-term.
Being however oversold with the 1D RSI hitting 24.85 yesterday for the first time since the COVID crash (March 12 2020), there is an equal probability of a short-term rebound or even a medium-term one if this is a temporary bottom like June 17. With signals on the higher and lower time-frames being mixed, the oversold RSI state isn't enough on its own to take the buy. It would be best to do so after a confirmation pattern.
The two strongest confirmation signals at the moment are:
1) When the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross, which since December 07 2021 always delivered a short-term rally.
2) A closing above the 0.618 Fibonacci level (now at 31357).
If you take those buys, you will have some ground behind them. Otherwise the are within the 0.618 and yesterday's lows gives a mixed sentiment. Below yesterday's lows, most likely we will see further strong selling, initially targeting the -0.236, as mentioned, at 28230.
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DOW JONES The dominant short-term Channel. What it shows next.The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) is currently pulling-back as yesterday's rebound has failed so far to break the Channel's median. That is the Channel Down, the dominant pattern, that the index has been trading in since the August 16 High. As you see that middle trend-line has been holding a key role within this pattern.
The current price action resembles the accumulation mini phase of September 02 - 07, where the price was supported on a Lower Lows line that eventually pushed it above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Channel's middle, to rise to the top of the Channel, eventually getting rejected on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
With the 4H MACD on a Bullish Cross, we are expecting Dow to reach 31700 and make a new Lower High within the Channel Down within a 1 week horizon.
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DOW JONES invalidating bearish patterns, targeting 34000 again.The Dow Jones Index (DJI) closed yesterday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as it is extending the rebound we called on our previous analysis:
As you see, that rebound came exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 17 Low and was the second (July 14 the first) time it held, making it the short-term Support. What Dow achieved with that 1D candle close above the 1D MA50, is to invalidate the February 24 - April 28 2022 fractal, which by that time was similar but failed to break and close above its 1D MA50 and eventually got sold aggressively.
What makes the current rebound potentially having a long-term effect is 1) the 1D RSI rebound on its multi-year Oversold Zone and 2) the Bullish Cross on the 1D MACD, which within 2022 always delivers at least a +8% rebound. Such % rise would be the test of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is our medium-term target. As mentioned numerous times before, in order to commit to long-term buying we would like to see the index close above the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line) first, which provided the rejection on the August 16 High.
So far the medium-term trading strategy is to buy every pull-back on the Higher Lows trend-line/ RSI oversold zone. A break below that level, we'll consider a bearish signal, targeting the 1W MA200 (red trend-line).
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DowJones-US30The price breaks the trend, and according to my analysis, The price will correct first, then by re-examining the chart, there will most likely be an opportunity to buy. It is apparent in the picture.
However, I think the orange color will happen.
Caution I saw the trend for a long time frame still bullish !!!
Follow me, like, comment, and ask questions.
DOW JONES hit the Higher Lows line. 1D RSI oversold.The Dow Jones Index (DJI) is on its 7th straight day below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) having fallen almost -10% since its August 16 High caused by the strong rejection on the 1D MA300 (yellow trend-line). The price has hit today the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 17 Low and had one more contact on July 14.
This is the only Support level that stands before a potential June 17 Low re-test, which is also where the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) is currently at, the index' natural long-term technical Support. As long as the Higher Lows hold, we can expect sideways trading within that trend-line and the 1D MA50. If the latter breaks, consider it a buy break-out signal targeting the 1D MA300 again or at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) which was hit both on the June-Aug and Feb-March rallies. If the June Low and 1W MA200 break, then we can expect a new Lower Low around the -0.236 Fibonacci extension, as the May 20 Low did.
On a short to medium-term perspective, this is a buy opportunity as the 1D RSI is touching the Oversold zone that has been holding since the 2020 COVID crash. As you see, every direct hit in the Zone has delivered a rebound of at least +8.00%.
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DOW JONES holding the 1D MA50 in a repeat of the COVID recovery!The Dow Jones Index (DJI) hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) yesterday and today shows the first signs of recovery. The drop from the August 16 High has been substantial, almost -7% but so has the rise since the June 17 low (more than +15%), so profit taking was natural, especially since the High exceeded the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). The first Resistance on the short-term is the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) which is being tested at the moment.
On the long-term though, this pull-back to the 1D MA50 after such a strong rally, resembles the initial recovery of March - June 2020 from the COVID crash. Especially considering also that the RSI and MACD on the 1W time-frame have been printing identical patterns, with the MACD being on a Bullish Cross since July 27 as it did on May 22 2020!
From June 15 2020 to July 21 2020, the 1D MA50 held as Support four times and it catapulted Dow to the 1.15 Fibonacci extension. A repeat of that pattern sets the current medium-term target exactly on the 35000 level. Notice also that as on June 23 2020, Dow is currently close to having the 1D MA50 cross above the 1D MA100, which is a Bullish Cross formation and that would be the first time since then!
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DOW JONES rejection finding Support soon.Exactly 2 weeks ago on our last Dow Jones (DJI) analysis we stated that the price had entered a possible rejection zone (red) and unless it closed a weekly (1W) candle above the 1D MA200, we would get a pull-back:
Well as it turned out the index closed last week below both the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which are very close to each other, and got a considerable rejection this week. The price is now approaching the critical Support cluster that consists of the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (yellow trend-line). The chances of getting a new bounce are high as not only are wee on a 1W MACD Bullish Cross since late July but also the 1D MA50 is about to cross above the 1D MA100, forming a Bullish Cross. Last time that happened was on after the June 15 2020 1W candle, which was the first recovery from the March 2020 COVID crash:
As you see, the 1D MA50 and 1D MA100 held as Support levels and Dow was able to sustain a solid rise. Technically there is no reason not to expect a similar development but in order to technically claim that the index is back onto the long-term bullish trend we need to see a weekly candle closing above the 1D MA200.
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DOW JONES rejected on the Golden Ratio. What's next?The Dow Jones index (DJI) broke above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) early this week but got rejected on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (from its January 05 All Time High (ATH)). Failing to hold the 1D MA200 as a Support, can result into a short-term pull-back to test the lower Fibonacci levels (0.5 and 0.382) as well as the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) and 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support.
This short-term technical correction, shouldn't change the long-term trend-line, which after the huge 1W RSI bounce and the +15% rally since the June 17 low, has turned bullish. Even fundamentally, this market rally was supported by the first significant retrace on the Inflation Rate (black trend-line) and coincided exactly with the top on the US10Y (teal trend-line). So as you see, the rally had strong fundamental drivers, especially the US10Y, whose late sustainable rise since August 01, seems to worry the stock markets. A new peak there, can mark the new low on Dow.
Also, notice that all prior 1D MA200 break-outs since February 01, failed to create a sustainable continuation and if we connect those tops with two trend-lines, we can see the solid technical Resistance that Dow Jones needs to overcome in order to be able to post a sustainable bullish trend long-term into the new Bull Cycle.
P.S. Because the chart has the added elements of the US10Y and Inflation Rate plotted and are not constant, it may appear distorted based on your screen's/ browser dimensions. The original looks like this below, so if yours doesn't, adjust the vertical/ horizontal axis in order to make it look like this and better understand what is illustrated:
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DOW JONES entered the rejection zone. Long-term trend decider!The Dow Jones Index (DJI) has finally entered the Rejection Zone that we wrote about last week, consisting of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level:
With the RSI on the 1W time-frame at its highest level since January 17 2022 but more importantly the 1W MACD on the first Bullish Cross since this 8 month Bear Phase started, it is very likely that we've finally reached the point were the long-term trend shifts from bearish to bullish. However only a weekly closing above the 1D MA200 can confirm that. Until then, being so close to it offers a great Risk/ Reward trade using the tight SL approach just above it to limit the risk and target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
A 1W close above the 1D MA200 should be enough to target the 35540 - 35875 Resistance Zone on the short-term. Important note that may go under the radar: the 1W MACD histogram posted in August its first green bars since May 2021, more than a year ago.
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