4-digit Dow (DJIA) - SHORT; Let the (long!!) descent begin!As the ol' southern colloquialism would have it: "Darn theng (The Dow) is fixin' to be done foh, rat cheer, right about naw!"... And this where the Long March (to < 9999) bound to start, rather sooner than later. (There is also a perfect Fib. Time Cycle lurking in the background. - Look closely!) If one is afraid to Short the index outright, no problem! - You're in luck. Just (continue to) SHORT the DJIA/Gold Ratio that is already well on it's way, still with miles and miles to go (down), with no end in sight. Here is that post;
Dowjonessignals
DOW JONES Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the zone within the 1D MA50 and the 4H MA400 (yellow trend-line) has been a buy opportunity within the Channel Up. Also the previous -5% pull-backs have been buy opportunities, both of which made a bottom within that zone. In addition, the RSI bounced on its Support Zone.
Target: 35800 (every such pull-back has rallied +8% to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
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DOW JONES Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy after the MACD makes a bearish cross and drops below 0. Potential low when the RSI approaches its Lows Lows trend-line.
Target: Calculate it to be near the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. Modest estimate 30600.
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Will the stock market decline if DXY holds this Support?This is a simple yet very informative study showing a comparison of Dow Jones against DXY (U.S. Dollar Index).
Since early 2015 the DXY has been ranging (wide range but still range) and especially after 2017 it established a clear Resistance (103.800 - 103.000) and Support (88.200 - 88.900) Zone. Every time it hit the Resistance and got rejected (Jan 2017, March 2020), Dow Jones started rising aggressively. Similarly when DXY hit the Support Zone (Feb 2018), Dow Jones (though volatile) made a new Low.
The DXY is currently very close to that Support Zone. Will another rebound here kick-start selling on the stock market? That chart certainly shows that. However we have to consider the (much longer) Cycles of DXY on a decade span (I posted that chart earlier today), which suggest that there are increased chances of breaking this Support.
Which scenario do you think will prevail? Will DXY hold this Support and cause selling on stocks or the opposite? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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DOW JONE Buy SignalPattern: Rising Wedge inside a Channel Up.
Signal: Buy as the price hit the 4H MA50 on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Rising Wedge.
Target: 30300 (The Higher Highs trend-line of the Rising Wedge).
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DOW JONES The RSI shows extension to this rally. 30500 eyed.My focus on DJIA is on the 1D time-frame where the RSI is approaching the 77.000 Resistance. This is a 5 month old trend-line and it appears that with all the positive fundamentals involved, the rally can be extended until this level is tested.
An even more interesting find is that every Top since the March meltdown, is on (or near) the -0.382 Fibonacci extension of the previous. That was spot on for the June 09 Top and the September 02 Top. This time the -0.382 Fib is at 31000.
Does it make sense to target 30500?
Recent DOW JONES signal:
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DOW JONES targeting 28650Dow rebounded 3 days ago on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Since late July, this trend-line has been holding firmly as Support and every contact (with a candle week, no candle closing has been done below it), has resulted in a strong rise.
Since the pattern is a Channel Down currently (since the September 03 High) is is natural to target the Lower High trend-line. As seen on the chart, the previous Lower High was made on the 0.9 Fibonacci retracement level, which is currently at 28650.
Bonus: see how every MA200 bottom gave 4 days to the MACD to make a Bullish Cross on the last two occasions. That means that by Thursday the 1D MACD will make a Bullish Cross.
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DOW JONES Recurring bullish pattern on the 1W time-frame?The Channel Up since June has fairly the same basic structure (even though more aggressive) than the one from March to September 2019, which led to the pre-COVID All Time High.
That pattern ended with a Lower High than created a Triangle, which eventually broke to the upside to the ATH. Dow Jones made that Lower High last week. See also how the RSI consolidated during both Channels.
The index has already defended the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) with a perfect bounce last month. Is this Triangle ready to break to new Highs next month? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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DOW JONES The striking bullish consistency of the 1D MA50DJIA is trading on a Channel Up on the 1D chart since late May. This pattern has made two exact Higher Highs and Higher Lows. I want to talk about the importance of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) not just within this Channel but even before.
As you see since May 04, the 1D MA50 has been tested 8 times. 7 out of those 8, it held and initiated a rise (at least of +4.00%). The only time it failed was on September 21, but still the price made a rebound on the Higher Low of the Channel Up, keeping it still valid.
The Lower Highs trend-lines play a significant role here. Even before the Channel Up, when Dow Jones broke above a Lower Highs trend-line after the 1D MA50 held, a very strong rally started.
Do you think history will repeat itself? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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Most recent DOW JONES idea:
DOW JONES broke above the 1D MA50. Buy Signal.Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price broke above the 1D MA50, crossing it as a Resistance for the first time since April 27. Also the MACD formed a Bullish Cross. The past 3 occurrences initiated a rally.
Target: 29200 (the Resistance).
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DOW JONES Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price broke above the Lower Highs trend-line and the 4H MA50.
Target: 28600 (just below the September 04 Resistance).
Medium term buy signal on Dow on the 1D chart:
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