Profit Taking On Friday?Minor wave 3 has possibly ended on cue with the high at the open today. If this holds, next stop should occur quickly with a Minor wave 4 bottom. The historical models of common retracement percentages are on the right. The three maximum models are red at the bottom. The pink levels are the quartiles for the most specific relational data and generally contain the bottom among the three levels. Light blue lines are next slightly broader data set and the yellow are the broadest dataset.
The second study has the largest agreement for the bottom in a very tight range of 4685-4690 which is the top green box. The larger green box contains the top and bottom of the next range and likely a more probable location for the bottom. This is between 4645-4680. The same set of modelling is also used to determine duration for Minor wave 4. The strongest agreement is at 24 hours long with second at 7 hours. These are the lengths of waves 2 and 3 respectively and possibly unlikely as mentioned in prior analyses, however, we are in more of a micro wave with the Minor waves and those levels cannot be ruled out as they would be in a long duration macro wave. Next agreement is 14 hours (possibly encouraged as a multiple of 7 hours) and then 21 hours. Just like there are two boxes of interest when it comes to price I have the same for duration. The top box is the 7 to 14 hour area and the larger green box is 7-21 hours.
The next study is my newer derivative model. The bottom should be contained in the light blue box (which is yet to be entered indicating more downward action tomorrow). This is between 2-20 trading hours. The price should be between 4636.95-4693.03. A more specific area for the bottom is the orange box between 3-13 hours and 4638.53-4679.26. The most specific target region tiny pink/magenta box) from median data is between 4652.01-4665.49, however, the duration has already been busted.
The final study seeks specific ratios of the other micro waves in the current macro wave to identify common historical waves. Minor wave 3 so far gained 192.07 points while Minor wav 1 gained 60.97. Wave 1/ Wave 3 is 0.317436. Similarly working Minor wave 2's loss of 52.89-->Wave 1/Wave 2 is 1.15277. I sought all micro wave 4s in which the prior micros held a 1/2 ratio between 1.1 and 1.2 AND 1/3 ratio between 0.28 and 0.35. I further determined what those wave 4s did and developed potential targets for the current wave 4. This data puts the duration between 6-8 hours and 8-19 hours. The bottom is contained between two pockets at 4673.9-4693.1 and 4663.4-4673.9. Ideally this has the bottom no lower than 4663 and lasting less than 19 hours.
Considering all of the data and projections from the studies. It looks like the bottom of Minor wave 4 could occur as soon as tomorrow but no later than Monday. My forecast for the bottom is inside the white box between 4663-4680. This could be as simple as profit taking from the amazing bull sprint in the past 6 weeks. If this target zone is hit on Friday, I should lay out forecasts for Minor wave 5 and the final market top this weekend.
I continue to lay all models out as part of my testing and refinement to see which ones work or are working, versus which models can be discarded. Although the biggest key is historical data may not be indicative of future behavior.
