The moment you have been waiting for: alt season is finally hereWelcome!
A short (but powerful) analysis on btc dominance. What we are seeing now is very encouraging for all the people who either trade or invest in alts. I am confident that we are right before an altcoin trend reversal and here´s why:
1. from a simple market structure standpoint we now have a very clean set of lower lows and a confirmed lower high on a weekly time frame
2. secondly, my MAs have signaled a very good sell signal and since btc.d is now finding resistance of off them it implies that the continuation to the downside is likely
3. most importantly, from a classical MA perspective we have 1. closed below the 200 weekly MA 2. rallied back above it and then, and here is the key 3. failed to sustain the upmove and once again closed below it
4. also, we are trending below the mean of the bollinger bands and since they are constricting it implies a bigger move is coming - in this case it would be to the downside
It remains to be seen whether this is going to be just a short to mid-term alt season or if we are maybe, just possibly starting a multi - month, macro uptrend with alts.
Regardless, altcoins are the play to be making in the next couple of weeks in my opinion.
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Take care.
Downside
A2 Milk - Confirmed H&S I reported earlier in the month that A2 Milk was showing a good formation of a head and shoulders pattern.
This week we had a confirmed breakout of the neckline, here is my complete analysis.
Price has fallen and closed below 30EMA (weekly).
Price has fallen and closed below 200EMA (daily).
CCI indicator(daily) is reading 222, which is a sign of strength to the downside.
Mansfield Relative Strength (XAO)(daily) is below zero showing A2M is under performing the All Ords.
Price has closed below Neckline of Head and shoulder pattern for 2 periods (confirmation).
Target price on the down side is roughly $10.7, using a 30EMA weekly as exit once price closes below on weekly time frame.
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Disclaimer - This in not financial advise and may not fit your financial needs, do you own analysis before investing any of your money or seek advice from a qualified financial advisor.
BITCOIN: DO OR DIE. Hello dear traders,
Let's keep it simple.
Weekly:
a/ Market structure: still intact bullish structure, but indecisive at the moment => No trend.
b/ RSI: indecisive => No trend.
c/ MACD: Under Bearish Crossover in positive territory. => Consolidation.
Daily:
a/ Market structure: still intact bullish structure, but indecisive at the moment. Breakout of resistance right before monday close. Needs to followthrough asap. => No trend.
b/ RSI: Indecisive. => No trend.
c/ MACD : Under bearish crossover. Possible bullish crossover soon. Support needs to hold on price to trigger a bullish crossover. => No trend.
4 hour:
a/ Market structure: Bullish, tagged resistance and got rejected. Currently retracing. Really needs to hold and keep closing above 10450 dollars max to keep going up and trigger a daily play. Monitor a S/R flip. Breakout under the zone triggers a bearish scenario.
b/ RSI: Indecisive. => No trend.
c/ MACD : Under bullish crossover. Possible bearish crossover soon. => No trend but monitoring a possible downside trigger.
Summary & trading plan:
- 10450 dollars XBTUSD must hold based on closing price to let us swing a bit with a possible target >11k usd.
- Currently doesnot look great and a retracement look more likely. Low 10k definitely possible.
Still hedged, monitoring carefully. Favoring some downside for this week to be honest.
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Cheers.
USDCHF - FURTHER DOWNSIDE AFTER PREVIOUS SELL ENTRYWe previously sold this pair at 50SMA if you look through the analysis available on our profile; it looks like the downside is due to continue after ending last week with a hammer at the Fibonacci levels highlighted. April 2018 low is the overall target.
UTX Huge Black Candlesticks May Be Precursor to More DownsideWhite candlesticks are small, weak, & irregular in trend pattern. Suspended Buybacks in 2017, reason was too much debt. Shifted into a Trading Range that dropped sharply in Nov.-Dec. 2018. No Dark Pool Quiet Accumulation in the bottom, Small Funds buying caused move up.
USDCHFupdate on trade, still bearish looking for the retest of the broken falling wedge. And i cant see a push higher after resistance until we at least get a retest of the trendline.
For now staying in the position and considering the current phase as drawback.
& we need to keep an eye on price closely for GDP data in a few hours. Right now im trusting our hand, as downside still has a good bias. Fib levels, rejecting price, Retest due of the wedge, everyone expecting USD positive for fundamentals, for my understanding im picking up negative expectations and then a 25bp rate cut next week!
We just need to be patient here though, and trust our hand. You have to trust technical and trade what you see.
ETFC Topped in 2018Weekly view shows a downtrend until the end of 2018, then the stock moved sideways in a trend that is not a bottom. Supported by a weak intermediate support level. Could break to the downside with High Frequency Trader action.
Monthly RSI and 10 Simple Moving Average StrategyIn this idea, I'd like to suggest that the 10 simple MA when shown on the Relative Strength Index is a great magnet for bitcoin pullbacks when shown throughout the previous bull trend. We are still a bit high above it here and I am looking for a bounce around the green line marked on the RSI.
Bad End of the Day for SPY?After a strong rally to the upside it's hard to see price moving downward, afterall we've bean hearing a lot of possitive news througout the media. But as a trader aren't we supposed to be contrarians? Well after looking at how today ended It could be hypothesised that the stong move to the upside has calmed down since bulls failed to break through recisstance and were pushed to lower levels. I interpet this as a bearish signal which can be traded in 3 ways, 2 being the ones drawn out in the chart. The other a more long term and risky trade with stops at 300 looking for a long term reversal back into the december lows. Although nothing is ciertan as of yet this market should be watched closely since it could have severe implications on the future of the world economy.
SILVERIn a clear bearish channel. Odds are for further downside.
Blue triangle indicates the current range.
Green box is buy.
Red box is sell.
Blue line indicates potential support/resistance .
Green line indicates t/p.
This is a log chart.
This is not financial advice. All charts shown on my page, including this one, are just for fun.
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This chart is made using fib channels.