Get started

Downtrend

Boring Stock, Getting Close to a Potential Long-Term BreakoutWaiting for a monthly close above the 8-year downtrend line to get in. The chart is pretty messy but many other signals are converging around that area (200-month EMA, 50-month EMA, .382 Fib). Price had a false breakout early in the downtrend based on the trendline I drew but I drew it where it is because it had many hits along this line. If price breaks out here I think it's significant because it would also be breaking above the 200-month EMA after dipping below temporarily (which it hadn't done for a really long time). I'm waiting for a monthly close above the 200-month EMA to start a position, and will plan on adding more if it can get about the 50-month EMA. I don't have a stop loss, this is a long-term buy and hold and collect the dividends if it can breakout. If it has a false breakout and goes down, I'll just buy up more at certain intervals and will update this idea. I think from looking at this chart and reading/listening to some of the other ideas about this stock that it can surpass the highs it made about 8 years ago and my price target is $270-$300 where I would start to think about using a stop loss and protecting profit. I like using stop losses eventually because it can let a stock potentially run rather than just selling when it hits the target. Anyway, waiting for another week to make a decision. If price ends up failing here, I think I will probably be able to get in down around $100 or maybe even a bit lower and I would consider starting a position there but I like buying on breakouts rather than trying to catch a "falling knife". One more thing on this stock, it hasn't participated much in the market recovery since the March lows from the covid panic selloff and that makes me like it also (just look at a long-term chart of Microsoft after the tech bubble, for a long time it pretty much traded sideways and now look at it, I'm not saying IBM will do the same but it could, I'm not one to limit the potential of the stock market long-term, over long periods of time it goes up on average). **These are just notes about what I am personally considering doing and are not recommendations to trade. If you decide to follow any of this, trade at your own risk and keep a long-term perspective, I'm talking this trade could take the better part of a decade to play out (not weeks or months, that would be a short-term trade which is usually not for me).**
NYSE:IBMLong
by PatientContrarian
3
NDX / QQQ Resumes Downtrend But Approaches Multi-Year SupportPrimary Chart: Several NDX / QQQ Trendlines and Multi-Year Support Zone at $254-$267 SUMMARY : The downtrend has resumed since the consolidation pause in the days leading up to the FOMC presser on September 21, 2022. Shorter-term targets include June lows at $269-$270, and if June lows are violated, the next target range is $254-$267 on QQQ, which equates to $10,720 to $11,000 on NDX. This target range is supported by Fibonacci projections as well as a multi-year zone of support, which could lead to an interim (temporary) low. Importantly, watch for any undercut of the June 2022 low, and watch for a failed breakout below that level of support—which could lead to another countertrend rally or a period of sideways chop. The bear rally in July and August 2022 had even the bears scratching their heads with their tired paws—"tired" because this year has been anything but an easy ride for bears and bulls alike. In July and August 2022, AAII sentiment even showed some bears took off their furry suit and put on some horns, as the number of bears dropped as price continued to rip higher. But the more steadfast and patient bears were rewarded yet again after the August 16, 2022 peak. In the end, the entire summer's rally was a mirage, a rally that drew in many thinking the worst was finished. This is common in bear markets, with bear rallies in the Nasdaq in 2002 ripping 30-60% higher over weeks, and sometimes months. But now, the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:NDX NASDAQ:QQQ has resumed its downtrend decisively since the August 16, 2022, swing high. Every time a multi-day rally has appeared, sellers have pounced to flood the market with supply, sending the NDX / QQQ back on its downward path. The next target from a purely technical perspective appears to be the multi-year zone of support near $254/$255 up to $267 on QQQ, which equates to approximately $10,720 to $11,000 on NDX. This is not far below where price traded today. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 11,501.66 / QQQ at $280.07. This zone of support is also supported by Fibonacci analysis. Fibonacci projections show conservative targets for this leg of the decline around $255.68-$267.53 (Supplementary Chart A), which closely align with the multi-year zone of support (shown on the Primary Chart). Supplementary Chart A: Fibonacci Analysis with Projections Based on Structure of the Current Decline from August 2022 Highs Supplementary Chart B: Fibonacci Channel Showing Potential Target Assuming Bear Market Continues into Next Year The Fibonacci Channel is plotted on a logarithmic chart going back 22 years to 2000 approximately, and the lows in the 2000-2002 bear market. Coincidentally, the $228 price level at the 2.00 line coincides with the longer-term trendline support at about $225-$230 early next year —shown on the Primary Chart as the upward trendline, the lowest trendline on the chart. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by SquishTrade
8
How the Mighty NVDA Has FallenPrimary Chart: Parallel Channel Containing NVDA's Bear Market Price Action Since Its All-Time High ANALYSIS SUMMARY: Trading NVDA at the middle of its downtrend channel is tricky and uncertain, and should be avoided. Nevertheless, the overhead gap has a likelihood of being filled up to 150.00 USD. But the 8-day EMA will have to be recovered first. Ultimately, however, NVDA should see new lows—probably within a few weeks, and certainly with in a few months. NVDA has fallen -61.7% from its all-time high. Some investors, with a 3-10 year view, may be interested in buying here for the long-term with the understanding that its GPU and chip business will continue to dominate and be a future tech leader. Others may wish be patient and allow the market to do its work of price discovery until it's complete. For traders, NVDA does not present a good risk-reward setup in either direction. It's sitting right in the middle of a parallel channel that has contained price action throughout the downtrend since NVDA's all-time high in November 2022. Some of the reasons trading is extremely tricky for NVDA right now include: Choppy price action in the indices, including SP:SPX (also traded as AMEX:SPY ) and NASDAQ:NDX (also traded as NASDAQ:QQQ ); On September 1, 2022, NVDA's price took out the July 5, 2022, low to the downside, which implies that the wave structure could likely lead to further downside ahead. Challenging macroeconomic and monetary-policy environment, with a so-called Fed-pivot unlikely until inflation can be brought far below current levels—5-6% inflation, while encouraging given 8-9% earlier this year, will not effect a Fed pivot. OPEX on Friday this week, leading to unexpected moves in price due to dealer and market-maker hedging, which can make directional trades more difficult than normal. unfilled gap all the way up to $150.00, and given choppiness and recent upward momentum in indices, NVDA is unlikely to move down to new lows in a straight line. Consider the following chart as well, which shows the volume ledges for NVDA. The resistance and supply overhead is extraordinary. Unless an investor is willing to wait potentially a very long time for NVDA to recover—and for institutions to step in and do the dirty work of putting in a final low—it may be best to watch and wait. Supplementary Chart: 8-day and 21-day MA and Volume Ledges Notice on the Supplementary Chart how the 8-day EMA has not yet been broken to the upside yet despite impressive strength in equity indices the last several days since the low on September 6, 2022. NVDA may break above the 8-day EMA to fill the gap. For the reasons listed above, trading NVDA right now is tricky and unpredictable. Lastly, consider the VWAPs from all the major highs during this bear market. They're kind of foreboding and bearish, all towering far above the price. Gambling on anything other than a short-term pop or bounce in price is a low-probability bet. Supplementary Chart B: NVDA's VWAPs placed at Major Swing Highs Those with a fundamental analysis viewpoint may wish to rely on that instead, understanding that semiconductors and GPUs will drive AI and computers for decades to come. But the technicals suggest this fundamental view may not work out to reverse NVDA's downtrend for quite some time. Of course, bear rallies can occur in bear markets, and these can be sharp and powerful. But a fundamental-analysis viewpoint is essentially a disagreement with the market's price action, a tricky proposition given the market's impressive ability to discount all available information. Fundamental analysts believe that the market has mispriced a security or instrument, and that eventually, the market will agree with the analyst's view. Sometimes this works out well for careful analysts with billions available for research (think Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway). For the rest of us, perhaps we should follow the price action for now. The author credits veteran fund manager and technical analyst David Lundgren as the source of this intelligent argument on fundamental analysis, which he has frequently has cited in interviews and publications. ________________________________________ Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature and could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by SquishTrade
19
JICPT| EURUSD daily short setup(1.0174-1.0213) with T1 & T2Hello everyone. Euro has been struggling around 1 against the dollar for sometime. This is a simple short setup on the daily chart with reasons below: 1. Downtrend line 2. 61.8% fib retracement 3. not bad supply zone I'd like to set an alert round the zone. Zoom in on the 4H or 1H for reversal pattern. Fundamentally, I do think the worst is yet to come. The energy crisis is expected to be even worse in the winter. I don't think market has fully priced in. Previously low 0.9875 would be target 1. I use measured move ab=cd to guess the aggressive target which is around 0.9564. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
Short
by JICPT
1
RUSSELL 2000 IWN is approaching a key levelIWN as shown on the weekly chart has been obviously in a downtrend as also shown by the EMA ribbon. Using the uptrend from the Covid crash into November 2021 and then a retracement from that, IWN is approchaing the 38.2 Fibonacci level at 128 From there it could bounce up or continue the downtrend. The Mass Index being below 27 suggests a continuation before any potential reversal. The MACD indicator shows the MACD in blue crossing down on the signal in red. This also suggests more downtrend. All in all, this analysis is bearish on the Russell index and its ETF.
AMEX:IWN
by AwesomeAvani
btc neutral no down no break out why ? THE REAL CRASH IS COMING… buy or not buy , Bitcoin has nearly satisfied its purpose of eliminating middlemen from transactions and improving financial democracy. More than a decade since its emergence, the asset has been attractive to millions of users worldwide and still dominates the total value share of the crypto market. Interestingly, a crypto locksmith identified as “Or Weinberger” has made a profound discovery about a decision that could have given the asset a different name. On Aug. 18, 2008, Bitcoin.org, the domain linked to Bitcoin, was registered by Satoshi Nakamoto under AnonymousSpeech, a Japan-based service that allows users to purchase domains anonymously. Interestingly, it has been observed that he also purchased a domain called Netcoin.org under AnonymousSpeech on Aug.17, 2008
by Tayyab1211
2
GOLD MAY FROM ANYWHERE FROM THE 1771 - 1790 ZONES. Hi Traders, I believe very strongly that the drastic fall in gold that we saw last week is too steep for us not to see some level of retracements which is what we have seen this week. I also think the retracement may be over and this pair may drop anywhere from 1771 - 1790 zone. I will stay away from gold sell and watch price action for possible buy opportunities if I see a daily close above 1833. Trade with care and apply proper risk management. Best of luck and have a pipful day in the market.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Olajireolapoju
1