How the Mighty NVDA Has FallenPrimary Chart: Parallel Channel Containing NVDA's Bear Market Price Action Since Its All-Time High
ANALYSIS SUMMARY: Trading NVDA at the middle of its downtrend channel is tricky and uncertain, and should be avoided. Nevertheless, the overhead gap has a likelihood of being filled up to 150.00 USD. But the 8-day EMA will have to be recovered first. Ultimately, however, NVDA should see new lows—probably within a few weeks, and certainly with in a few months.
NVDA has fallen -61.7% from its all-time high. Some investors, with a 3-10 year view, may be interested in buying here for the long-term with the understanding that its GPU and chip business will continue to dominate and be a future tech leader. Others may wish be patient and allow the market to do its work of price discovery until it's complete.
For traders, NVDA does not present a good risk-reward setup in either direction. It's sitting right in the middle of a parallel channel that has contained price action throughout the downtrend since NVDA's all-time high in November 2022. Some of the reasons trading is extremely tricky for NVDA right now include:
Choppy price action in the indices, including SP:SPX (also traded as AMEX:SPY ) and NASDAQ:NDX (also traded as NASDAQ:QQQ );
On September 1, 2022, NVDA's price took out the July 5, 2022, low to the downside, which implies that the wave structure could likely lead to further downside ahead.
Challenging macroeconomic and monetary-policy environment, with a so-called Fed-pivot unlikely until inflation can be brought far below current levels—5-6% inflation, while encouraging given 8-9% earlier this year, will not effect a Fed pivot.
OPEX on Friday this week, leading to unexpected moves in price due to dealer and market-maker hedging, which can make directional trades more difficult than normal.
unfilled gap all the way up to $150.00, and given choppiness and recent upward momentum in indices, NVDA is unlikely to move down to new lows in a straight line.
Consider the following chart as well, which shows the volume ledges for NVDA. The resistance and supply overhead is extraordinary. Unless an investor is willing to wait potentially a very long time for NVDA to recover—and for institutions to step in and do the dirty work of putting in a final low—it may be best to watch and wait.
Supplementary Chart: 8-day and 21-day MA and Volume Ledges
Notice on the Supplementary Chart how the 8-day EMA has not yet been broken to the upside yet despite impressive strength in equity indices the last several days since the low on September 6, 2022. NVDA may break above the 8-day EMA to fill the gap. For the reasons listed above, trading NVDA right now is tricky and unpredictable.
Lastly, consider the VWAPs from all the major highs during this bear market. They're kind of foreboding and bearish, all towering far above the price. Gambling on anything other than a short-term pop or bounce in price is a low-probability bet.
Supplementary Chart B: NVDA's VWAPs placed at Major Swing Highs
Those with a fundamental analysis viewpoint may wish to rely on that instead, understanding that semiconductors and GPUs will drive AI and computers for decades to come. But the technicals suggest this fundamental view may not work out to reverse NVDA's downtrend for quite some time. Of course, bear rallies can occur in bear markets, and these can be sharp and powerful. But a fundamental-analysis viewpoint is essentially a disagreement with the market's price action, a tricky proposition given the market's impressive ability to discount all available information. Fundamental analysts believe that the market has mispriced a security or instrument, and that eventually, the market will agree with the analyst's view. Sometimes this works out well for careful analysts with billions available for research (think Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway). For the rest of us, perhaps we should follow the price action for now. The author credits veteran fund manager and technical analyst David Lundgren as the source of this intelligent argument on fundamental analysis, which he has frequently has cited in interviews and publications.
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Please note that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature and could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success.
Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed.
DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Downtrend
Bitcoin weekly about to break the downtrend!!After been a long time in a bearmarket, bitcoin is tending to breakout of the downtrend.
Reasons:
- Bullish divergence on weekly and daily!
- RSI soon breaking downtrend
- Macd same log as 2015 and 2018 bottom.
- Macd cross up weekly!
October going to be insanely bullish! Also historically has october been a very bullish month!
JICPT| EURUSD daily short setup(1.0174-1.0213) with T1 & T2Hello everyone. Euro has been struggling around 1 against the dollar for sometime.
This is a simple short setup on the daily chart with reasons below:
1. Downtrend line
2. 61.8% fib retracement
3. not bad supply zone
I'd like to set an alert round the zone. Zoom in on the 4H or 1H for reversal pattern. Fundamentally, I do think the worst is yet to come. The energy crisis is expected to be even worse in the winter. I don't think market has fully priced in. Previously low 0.9875 would be target 1. I use measured move ab=cd to guess the aggressive target which is around 0.9564.
What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
EURUSD | Soon Complete (Descending Triangle)EURUSD | Soon Complete (Descending Triangle)
EURUSD | Price Soon reached 0.9500 For the time EURO is very weak compared to many other currencies considering that it is created a lot of speculation with the war problems and the economic crisis. Given that EURUSD already broke the parity
if you like this please like comment
Thanks
#eurusd #euro #downtrend
NZD-JPY Will Go Down! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NZD-JPY is trading in a downtrend
And the pair broke the key
Horizontal level from
And then made a pullback
And a retest of the broken level
So now I am expecting
A bearish continuation
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
GBP-CAD Risky Short! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
GBP-CAD is trading in a downtrend
And the pair will soon be retesting
A resistance cluster of the falling
And horizontal resistance levels
From where we are likely
To see a move down
Sell!
Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading!
See other ideas below too!
RUSSELL 2000 IWN is approaching a key levelIWN as shown on the weekly chart has been obviously in a downtrend as also shown by
the EMA ribbon.
Using the uptrend from the Covid crash into November 2021 and then a retracement from that,
IWN is approchaing the 38.2 Fibonacci level at 128
From there it could bounce up or continue the downtrend.
The Mass Index being below 27 suggests a continuation before any potential reversal.
The MACD indicator shows the MACD in blue crossing down on the signal in red.
This also suggests more downtrend.
All in all, this analysis is bearish on the Russell index and its ETF.
gbp/usd possible continue downonce price increase from 1.0817 to 1.09144( 0.90%) then i would wait on a retracement to
the red zone but the can should close inside that zone. after that i want to see some selling pressure
with a red candle close below my 1.06 zone the i would take my entry at the close of that candle.
btc neutral no down no break out why ? THE REAL CRASH IS COMING…
buy or not buy ,
Bitcoin has nearly satisfied its purpose of eliminating middlemen from transactions and improving financial democracy. More than a decade since its emergence, the asset has been attractive to millions of users worldwide and still dominates the total value share of the crypto market. Interestingly, a crypto locksmith identified as “Or Weinberger” has made a profound discovery about a decision that could have given the asset a different name.
On Aug. 18, 2008, Bitcoin.org, the domain linked to Bitcoin, was registered by Satoshi Nakamoto under AnonymousSpeech, a Japan-based service that allows users to purchase domains anonymously. Interestingly, it has been observed that he also purchased a domain called Netcoin.org under AnonymousSpeech on Aug.17, 2008
GOLD MAY FROM ANYWHERE FROM THE 1771 - 1790 ZONES. Hi Traders,
I believe very strongly that the drastic fall in gold that we saw last week is too steep for us not to see some level of retracements which is what we have seen this week.
I also think the retracement may be over and this pair may drop anywhere from 1771 - 1790 zone.
I will stay away from gold sell and watch price action for possible buy opportunities if I see a daily close above 1833.
Trade with care and apply proper risk management.
Best of luck and have a pipful day in the market.
XAUUSD bearish 30m view over all the Gold is runing in down trend and after bouncing off the MA200 and the trend line expecting more down move for completion its way....waiting for the level 1655.820 to be broken ( safe level for the trade)...or we will see bouncing off from that level to reverse the direction up from 1660.520 (safe level for long trade). be safe
USDJPY will probably confirm the downtrendThe price action begins to prove that the market is tired of Fed's narrative wich is most hawkish now,
Japanese economy in the uptrend,
Institutional forecasts of BNP Paribas, NatWest, Standard Bank, BoA, J.P. Morgan, Danske, CIBC, Goldman Sachs and Barclays say the USDJPY starts the downtrend