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Downtrend

DXY Outlook (1st Qtr 2024)Last year, despite the volatility in the markets (fight against inflation, SVB collapse, conflict in Gaza....) the DXY traded in a slightly consolidative range, between the 100 and 107 price levels (compared to 2022, where the DXY rose from 95 up to almost 115). The theme of the first quarter of 2024 is likely to be about if/when the Federal Reserve would begin to cut rates, from the current level of 5.25% down to 5%. Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the Feds are likely to keep rates on hold in January, but there is a 72.4% chance of a rate cut at the March 2024 meeting. The DXY is currently at the 101.50 price level, finding support at the 100-round number area and the longer-term 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at the 99.25 price level. A retrace to the upside can be anticipated early in the quarter. However, the upper bound of the bearish channel and the resistance level at the 104 price level could limit further moves to the upside. Look out for inflation and employment data to continue to support the Fed's view for rate cuts in March. This could lead the DXY to continue trading within the bearish channel. If the price breaks below the support level of 99.25, the DXY could trade down to the major support level of 95, and the lower bound of the bearish channel. Major Events to Watch 5th Jan: Non-Farm Employment Change 11th Jan: CPI y/y 26th Jan: Core PCE Price Index 1st Feb: Federal Funds Rate Decision and statement 2nd Feb: Non-Farm Employment Change 13th Feb: CPI y/y 29th Feb: Core PCE Price Index 8th Mar: Non-Farm Employment Change 12th Mar: CPI y/y 21st Mar: Federal Funds Rate Decision
TVC:DXYShort
by JinDao_Tai
4
⤵⤵ gold fundamental analysis)technical analysis). traders are you looking for a bearish trandline gold Market this week gold fullback down 👇 1980? Gold seller reject the resistance levels breakdown I think 💬 gold moving down 2040 fullback down 1980 Fundamental Analysis of Gold FXOPEN:XAUUSD TVC:DXY The outlook created by the fundamental analysis of the gold market remains strong with the growing uncertainty in the world economy and rapidly expanding money supply. As governments try to cope with financial turbulence, they print more and more fiat money (money that is not backed with material assets). This fuels inflation that eats away government bonds yields. If the yields themselves are lower than the inflation, then you actually lose purchasing power by holding these bonds. In such a situation, investors switch to assets they believe will allow them to preserve their wealth. Gold is precisely one of such assets. Entry 2021 Entry 2040 Target 1980 safe trade ❣️🙏 pales like 👍 and comments 👇
FXOPEN:XAUUSDShort
by SMC-Trading-Point
GJ major sell possibilityGoing over the current market structure it has rejected the continuation of the uptrend 5 times in my marked up zone.. that being said I think we might be in for a major move down. I have marked my entry below the lows of the liquidity areas and my stops halfway up the highs to minimize risk but still allowing the market to grab liquidity before moving bearish. *Other scenario would be if the market passes my marked zone we could be in for a continuation of an uptrend*
Short
by Noot-Trade
Bitcoin ended the uptrend and now we are going to new bottomIn this comprehensive analysis, we delve into Bitcoin's current market trajectory, highlighting a potential end to its recent uptrend. Based on the Elliott Wave Theory, we are currently observing a pivotal transition that could redefine Bitcoin's market value in the near term. Our analysis suggests that Bitcoin, currently hovering around the $42,000 - $43,000 range, is on the brink of a significant downturn. We anticipate a sharp decline to levels below $10,000, potentially reaching as low as $6,000. More dramatically, this descent might not halt until Bitcoin hits a staggering low of around $1,000. This price point is projected to be the foundational bottom, setting the stage for an unprecedented bullish wave. This expected downturn is classified as Wave 2 in the context of the Elliott Wave Principle. This phase is crucial as it typically precedes a strong bullish momentum. Our projections indicate that following this dramatic decrease, Bitcoin could enter a rapid and robust Wave 3, soaring to new heights between $130,000 and $150,000. This surge is not just a recovery but a monumental leap, potentially setting new records in the cryptocurrency market. It's important to note that while this analysis is rooted in well-established financial theories and current market trends, investors should approach with caution. The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility and unpredictability. As such, this analysis should be considered as one of many possible scenarios, and investors should conduct thorough research and consider a variety of factors before making investment decisions. Stay tuned for updates and further insights as we continue to monitor Bitcoin's intriguing market journey.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BREAK-impossible
3
SOL/USDT Market Correction OpportunitiesWe are considering a scenario involving the decline in the SOL's value and the initiation of asset purchases. It is worth noting that the current correction to the $79.60 level represents a deviation of more than 37% from the prevailing local peak at $126.21. The price movement chart within the descending channel during the correction indicates a reduction in investment activity and profit-taking. Given the anticipated continuation of the downward trend and considering the potential attainment of price levels around $70 and below, we are contemplating the possibility of strategically re-entering positions in SOL to optimize the portfolio and capitalize on market conditions in our favor.
Long
by Rick_SimpleSwap
2
ETH/USDT 1H Short-TermHello everyone, let's take a look at the ETH to USDT chart on a one hour time frame. The price still remains below the local downtrend line. After unfolding the Fib Retracement grid, there is support at $2,470, followed by strong support around $2,380. Looking the other way, you can see how the price turned back before the resistance at $2,499, while we still have a strong resistance zone from $2,573 to $2,614. There is room for growth on the RSI, but the STOCH indicator has exceeded the upper limit and we have a visible rebound, with room for a larger price decline.
by cryptodailyuk
NIACL DOWNTREND BREAKOUT ON 22/08/20232.5 YEARS OF DOWNTREND BREAKOUT HAPPENED ON 22nd Aug 2023 But i suggested this stock on 6th Nov 2023 at 140 level Entered at 140 Targets - 155,180,200+ ALL 3 TARGETS DONE WITH IN JUST 15 DAYS ONLY 💥🚀💹 & GIVEN 120 POINTS (85%) IN JUST 20 DAYS...... SKY ROCKING STOCK FROM MY WATCHLIST CMP - 210.35 Re-entry possible at 200 level... if falls again than average at 180 level @Jagadheesh_JP In this channel, I share my expertise in trading strategies, technical analysis, and market trends to help you make informed decisions in your trading ventures. Stay tuned for daily updates, in-depth market analyses, and real-time trading scenarios to witness firsthand how we transform from Zero to Hero in the trading world. My Only aim is to empower you with the knowledge and skills necessary to navigate the complexities of the financial markets successfully. Disclaimer - All information on this page is for educational purposes only, we are not SEBI Registered, Please consult a SEBI registered financial advisor for your financial matters before investing And taking any decision. We are not responsible for any profit/loss you made. Request your support and engagement by liking and commenting & follow to provide encouragement HAPPY TRADING 👍
NSE:NIACL
by Jagadheesh_JP
Another long-term downtrend broken?Here is another stock potentially breaking out of a long-term downtrend/basing pattern. I tried to put the trend line where there were the most hits so that it would be more accurate, but that resulted in some false breakouts in the past and, as a result, this could prove to be a false breakout or that the trend line isn't even accurate and there was no breakout. But the potential breakout occurred on strong volume, which is a good sign. Based on the assumption that a long-term downtrend has indeed been broken, I like this stock long-term. I don't like to set price targets, but rather set a stop loss and keep increasing it if a stock continues to rise. If this ends up proving to be a false breakout, or not even a breakout at all as I've stated my trend line might not be good, a break below long-term support of about $4 would be a very bad sign, but also potentially very good at shaking out the last of the weak hands. Think about it, if you had the ability and really wanted to shake out the weak hands, you would manipulate a false breakout here followed by a big shakeout below previous long-term support where you could buy at dirt cheap prices and then take the stock up for the move everyone thought would initially happen. This is not advice, just a very simple observation of a long-term chart pattern, decide for yourself and if you decide to trade this move, do so at your own risk. I'm a long-term investor, so I like to trade on longer-term moves and therefore and willing to take more risk - it wouldn't bother me if this stock had a shakeout following this potential breakout, but for short-term traders it would probably be too much to risk going through something like that, or their tighter stops would be taken out before the stock really gets going. I'm good with that as it adds long-term strength and more potential movement long-term.
PLong
by PatientContrarian
Watch TLT Support at Multi-Decade LowsPrimary Chart : Monthly Chart of TLT Showing Multi-Decade Support Levels. A fair amount of charts have been published lately on the importance of interest rates, and conversely, long-term bonds, government or high-yield bonds. One well-known TradingView publisher @scheplick went so far as to describe the chart of the US 10-year yield as the most important chart for understanding financial markets in this season. His post was entitled, " The Most Important Chart in the World : TLT is an iShares ETF that tracks the performance, generally speaking of long-term US Treasury bonds. Specifically, iShares describes TLT as an ETF that "seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years." TLT has been in a severe downtrend since March 2020. Bonds yields move inversely to price, and TLT represents, in a rough sense, the price of an index or basket of long-term US government bonds with maturities greater than 20 years. So if long-term bonds remain in a downtrend, then this corresponds to the uptrend in long-term yields that has continued to break higher than anyone expects. The Primary Chart shows TLT having reached long-term, major support at 2009-2010 lows. But a careful examination of TLT's recent lows reveals that it broke slightly below those lows, which isn't a good look for bond bulls in the long term. Supplementary Chart A shows 2009-2010 lows on a monthly chart (similar to the Primary Chart above). Supplementary Chart A However, TLT's reaching such a major support level, with a lower wick forming (at least initially), could imply a move higher in bonds and a concomitant move lower in yields in the near term. But remember that fighting a predominant trend (mean reversion) when it becomes extended can be one of the trades having the lowest success rate. But it can also have a higher reward rate if risk is managed well. SquishTrade does not recommend being long bonds here but rather commenting on how traders may react to major support levels in TLT's downtrend. They may be right or wrong—recall that no one likely expected long bonds to fall as far as they have, and many have been positioned long bonds since TLT was in the upper $90s! The next few supplementary charts emphasize the nature and severity of the downtrend in long-term bonds, as represented here by TLT. The first shows TLT's 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Price is about –12.11% below the 200-day SMA as of mid-session on Friday, September 29/ Supplementary Chart B Next, the VWAP anchored to TLT's long-term cycle high is shown in black. This confirms a long-term, and extreme downtrend in long duration US Treasury bonds. Long-term VWAPs do not always have such a noticeable downward slope. Even a bounce to $125 could present just a mean reversion (retracement) within this downtrend despite creating an uptrend on the daily or even weekly chart, which would be necessary to reach that distant level. Supplementary Chart C A Fibonacci channel below has been applied to a weekly TLT chart. Notice how the channel shows support right where the weekly lower wick formed—the 1.618 level of the channel. To be sure, this does not necessitate a long-term trend reversal (though anything is possible, and this could be the spot). But it does suggest the potential for a near term bounce in the shorter cycles. Supplementary Chart D Anyone wondering whether a long-term uptrend is still in place from the start of TLT's price history should consider the following chart. This shows decisive breaks of several long-term (and progressively accelerating) uptrends. Supplementary Chart E Year-end flows can be supportive of equities, though not always—note the late 2019 exception for CBOE:SPX and $NASDAQ:NDX. If some relief materializes in long-term to intermediate-term bonds, then this could coincide with some support in broader equity markets into year end, though this is by no means guaranteed. Consider the following posts and charts on yield curve inversions posted by @SPY_Master and this author on TradingView: These charts of yield-curve inversions should give one serious concerns about the near-term (3 months to 2 years) health of the stock market. This post is in no way advocating any particular investing or trading strategy. Short-term trading and long-term investing can both be either devastating or profitable (or somewhere in between those extremes) to the person engaging in it. And thanks for reading this and for your encouragement and support. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SquishTrade
46