Get started

Downtrend

Watch TLT Support at Multi-Decade LowsPrimary Chart : Monthly Chart of TLT Showing Multi-Decade Support Levels. A fair amount of charts have been published lately on the importance of interest rates, and conversely, long-term bonds, government or high-yield bonds. One well-known TradingView publisher @scheplick went so far as to describe the chart of the US 10-year yield as the most important chart for understanding financial markets in this season. His post was entitled, " The Most Important Chart in the World : TLT is an iShares ETF that tracks the performance, generally speaking of long-term US Treasury bonds. Specifically, iShares describes TLT as an ETF that "seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of U.S. Treasury bonds with remaining maturities greater than twenty years." TLT has been in a severe downtrend since March 2020. Bonds yields move inversely to price, and TLT represents, in a rough sense, the price of an index or basket of long-term US government bonds with maturities greater than 20 years. So if long-term bonds remain in a downtrend, then this corresponds to the uptrend in long-term yields that has continued to break higher than anyone expects. The Primary Chart shows TLT having reached long-term, major support at 2009-2010 lows. But a careful examination of TLT's recent lows reveals that it broke slightly below those lows, which isn't a good look for bond bulls in the long term. Supplementary Chart A shows 2009-2010 lows on a monthly chart (similar to the Primary Chart above). Supplementary Chart A However, TLT's reaching such a major support level, with a lower wick forming (at least initially), could imply a move higher in bonds and a concomitant move lower in yields in the near term. But remember that fighting a predominant trend (mean reversion) when it becomes extended can be one of the trades having the lowest success rate. But it can also have a higher reward rate if risk is managed well. SquishTrade does not recommend being long bonds here but rather commenting on how traders may react to major support levels in TLT's downtrend. They may be right or wrong—recall that no one likely expected long bonds to fall as far as they have, and many have been positioned long bonds since TLT was in the upper $90s! The next few supplementary charts emphasize the nature and severity of the downtrend in long-term bonds, as represented here by TLT. The first shows TLT's 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Price is about –12.11% below the 200-day SMA as of mid-session on Friday, September 29/ Supplementary Chart B Next, the VWAP anchored to TLT's long-term cycle high is shown in black. This confirms a long-term, and extreme downtrend in long duration US Treasury bonds. Long-term VWAPs do not always have such a noticeable downward slope. Even a bounce to $125 could present just a mean reversion (retracement) within this downtrend despite creating an uptrend on the daily or even weekly chart, which would be necessary to reach that distant level. Supplementary Chart C A Fibonacci channel below has been applied to a weekly TLT chart. Notice how the channel shows support right where the weekly lower wick formed—the 1.618 level of the channel. To be sure, this does not necessitate a long-term trend reversal (though anything is possible, and this could be the spot). But it does suggest the potential for a near term bounce in the shorter cycles. Supplementary Chart D Anyone wondering whether a long-term uptrend is still in place from the start of TLT's price history should consider the following chart. This shows decisive breaks of several long-term (and progressively accelerating) uptrends. Supplementary Chart E Year-end flows can be supportive of equities, though not always—note the late 2019 exception for CBOE:SPX and $NASDAQ:NDX. If some relief materializes in long-term to intermediate-term bonds, then this could coincide with some support in broader equity markets into year end, though this is by no means guaranteed. Consider the following posts and charts on yield curve inversions posted by @SPY_Master and this author on TradingView: These charts of yield-curve inversions should give one serious concerns about the near-term (3 months to 2 years) health of the stock market. This post is in no way advocating any particular investing or trading strategy. Short-term trading and long-term investing can both be either devastating or profitable (or somewhere in between those extremes) to the person engaging in it. And thanks for reading this and for your encouragement and support. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:TLT
by SquishTrade
46
USDJPY- STILL DOWN LIKE WE PREVIOUS ANALIZED The USD/JPY currency pair has seen significant movements recently, with several factors influencing its expected performance next week: Current Position and Recent Movements: As of December 14, 2023, USD/JPY stood at 141.986, indicating a decrease of 2.28%. The currency hit a high of 145.995 and a low of 141.832 during this period. Over a broader 52-week range, the pair fluctuated between 127.221 and 151.924, with a year-to-date change of 8.29% and a one-year change of 4.73%. Influence of Bank of Japan's Policies: Recently, signals from the Bank of Japan about an imminent shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy have strongly influenced the Japanese yen's strengthening against other major currencies, particularly against the dollar. This caused the USD/JPY pair to fall to the support level of 141.63 before recovering. Therefore, the future of the pair largely depends on the central banks' policies, especially from Japan, where markets have long awaited a shift in negative interest policy. Expectations from the U.S. Central Bank: This week, the focus will be on the U.S. Central Bank's policy announcement, with strong expectations to maintain U.S. interest rates, but there will be attention on the bank's policy statement and expectations report. Monitoring of new expectations for U.S. interest rate levels at the Federal Reserve is ongoing. Technical Analysis: Technically, the USD/JPY has formed lower highs connected to a trend line that has held since mid-November. It appears ready to test this resistance level again. The Fibonacci retracement tool indicates levels where sellers may be waiting to jump on the downtrend. The 61.8% Fibonacci level nearest to the trend line is around the key psychological mark of 146.00, which might be sufficient to keep gains in check. Hence, the USD/JPY may resume its decline to its lowest level at 141.62. However, a breakout above the Fibonacci levels and trend line could trigger a reversal to the upside. Additionally, technical indicators suggest a continuation of the downward trend, with the 100 SMA below the 200 SMA, confirming a shift downward in the trend or that a sell-off is more likely to gain momentum rather than reverse. In summary, the future performance of USD/JPY will depend on key factors including the central banks' policies of Japan and the United States, as well as technical signals that currently indicate a potential continuation of the downward trend. The chart reflects this with the price recently testing a key support level and showing a potential for continuation of the downward trend as indicated by the trend lines and recent price action. A video of my trade made it yesterday at USDJPY drive.google.com Like i analyzed before go look my past analysis: drive.google.com
Short
by BBSignTraders
USDJPY - BEARS STILL DOMINATING THIS CURRENCY In my analysis of the USD/JPY pair, the technical setup currently indicates a bearish trend, with the price action recently breaking through key support levels, which could potentially become resistance. My interpretation of the chart suggests caution as the downtrend may persist. However, fundamental factors such as central bank policies, economic indicators, and geopolitical events will play a critical role in determining the pair's future movement. As the yen is often considered a haven, shifts in market sentiment could drive its value. Keeping abreast of economic news and being adaptable to the fluid market conditions is essential for navigating the potential volatility ahead for the USD/JPY pair. MY ANALISIS: drive.google.com MY TRADE BY STRUCTURE OF MARKET ON USD JPY ARE RUNNING DOWN drive.google.com
Short
by BBSignTraders
DIA DOW ETF ShortDIA tracking the DOW widely in an ETF format on the two hour chart had a 7% rise in the past month which was widely followed in the investment media. I believe that it was a bull trap. In the past week price action has been sideways while the Stochastic RSI shows bearish divergence as does the zero lag MACD. Tradign Volumes has fallen off since burst of buying volume in mid and late November which pushed the price up 7%. In the past week, relative volatility has fallen off in general and now negative volatility exceeds positive. I believe that this is a top for the time being. A short position will be taken of 10 shares with a stop above the top at 363 The target is 342 just above the POC line, where high liquidity and volatility will return as long positions, would pile back in there and get a bounce or even a squeeze. This would be about a reward of 8 for a risk of 2, which seems reasonable. I will however take a 1/3 partial at 350 where the Fibonacci retracement comes into play. The SDOW ETF would be another way to play this idea.
AMEX:DIAShort
by AwesomeAvani
EUR/USD: Trends Amidst Fed Caution and Technical AnalysisThe foreign exchange market, a dynamic arena where currencies engage in a perpetual dance, is currently witnessing notable shifts in the EUR/USD pair. This analysis delves into the intricate interplay of both fundamental and technical factors influencing the Euro against the US Dollar. Against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve's cautious approach to monetary policy and recent technical developments, we explore the potential for a downtrend in EUR/USD. The aim is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the market dynamics, linking the Fed's commitment to interest rate management, the impact of slowing US inflation, and the technical chart patterns that may shape the future trajectory of this critical currency pair. Join us in dissecting the nuances that contribute to the potential downward movement of EUR/USD, with an ultimate target set at 1.05719 by the year's end. Fundamental Analysis: Cautious Fed Monetary Policy: In its recent meeting, the Federal Reserve (Fed) reiterated its cautious approach to interest rate management, choosing not to raise rates. This decision reflects a policy focused on economic stability and vigilance against potential negative impacts. Impact of Slowing US Inflation: The Fed's commitment to raising interest rates only when necessary, particularly in relation to inflation control, indicates a concern for the balance between economic growth and price stability. A slowdown in US inflation could alleviate pressure for interest rate hikes. Euro Strength Amid Dollar Decline: The Euro has strengthened against the US Dollar, partly due to market concerns about a potential decline in the value of the Dollar. Investors may be seeking alternative investments in the Eurozone deemed more attractive. Technical Analysis: Resistance at the November 21 Pivot Point: On November 21, EUR/USD encountered resistance at the pivot point of 1.09594, which represents the highest level in the past three months. Failure to surpass this level can be interpreted as a rejection by the market to push prices higher. Potential Bearish Reversal: Failure to breach the pivot point resistance could signal a potential bearish reversal, especially if followed by further price declines. This may indicate buyer fatigue and seller strength, potentially leading to further declines. Target Price of 1.05719: Aligned with fundamental analysis, the potential decline in EUR/USD could be a response to tighter US monetary policy and the increasing allure of the Dollar. The target price of 1.05719 is considered a realistic level given market conditions and supporting fundamentals. Conclusion: Fundamental analysis indicates that the Fed's cautious monetary policy and the decline in US inflation could provide additional support for Dollar strength. Meanwhile, technical analysis, with the pivot point at 1.09594 as the highest in three months, highlights resistance and the potential for a bearish reversal. This combination of factors forms the basis for considering a short position on EUR/USD, with a target price aimed at 1.05719 by year-end. Monitoring both fundamental and technical developments is crucial for risk management and making informed trading decisions.
Short
by fardycurry
2
XAG/USD ↘️ Short Trade Setup ↘️Hello Everyone 🙋🏽‍♂️ Oversold + Demand zone 🟠 EP 23.41685 🔴 SL 23.71720 🟢 TP1 23.10085 ⚠️( Close 33% of the trade and Set the SL on EP )⚠️ 🟢 TP2 22.81060 ⚠️ ( Close 33% of the trade )⚠️ 🟢 TP3 22.50200 🔥 ( Final result)🔥 We are not responsible of any losses for anyone, our trades are profitable more for long terms and we take losses as everyone, manage your lot size as well and your SL and TP and my opinion is 0.01 lot for each 500 $. Don't forget to hit the like bottom and write a comment to support us. Follow us for more 🙋🏻‍♂️ Best Regard / EMA Trading . Disclaimer: ---------------- It's not a financial advise, As everyone we take losses sometime but for long term trading we are profitable traders, so manage your account well with SL and TP and your lot size to keep your account safe and stay in the market
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by EMA_Trading
4
CELO ANALYSIS🔮 #CELO Analysis 🚀🚀 💲💲 There is breakdown of ascending channel pattern in #CELO with proper retests of all levels. Now there is a clear path to the downside. 📉📉 💸Current Price -- $0.555 📈Target Price -- $0.515 ⁉️ What to do? - We have marked crucial levels in the chart . We can trade according to the chart and make some profits. 🚀💸 🏷Remember, the crypto market is dynamic in nature and changes rapidly, so always use stop loss and take proper knowledge before investments. #CELO #Cryptocurrency #Breakdown #DYOR
Short
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
Pick one or twoThese stocks are clearly in a downtrend and testing the downtrend line resistance. I have puts of TGT that I bought on Friday. If you want to trade one of these I recommend to open a limit order at a better price than it closed on Friday for the puts and pick a strike price close to the current price. You can also buy puts with different strike prices to balance out you risk. My TGT puts expire on 11/10 and strike 113. I may buy more but depends how the week goes. Always think on your risk reward, If price opens with a gap down just move to another trade.
NYSE:TGTShort
by ArturoL