Downturn
ETH - Trading Projection Into The WeekendUnfortunately, politics play a huge role in the projected outlook for Bitcoin and other alts, in which we could see ETH drop to the upward diagonal trend line that originated after the COVID crash. Therefore, throughout the week and on through Oct, the market will be highly sensitive and choppy for alts, unless stimulus talks resume or some bullish news is announced for ETH. However, these dips are excellent buying opportunities, as we know Oct has been historical bearish during election years. With that said, I highly doubt we go sub $320’s, due to the strong support that exist within that region, but any thing can happen in crypto.
Transports: Consolidating during market downturnTechnical
20sma is being supportive, but it is recommended to keep your stops somewhat below the average.
A close below $190 would be a bearish warning.
The broad market has been taking a downturn over the past week. The Transportation industry has been consolidating, showing relative strength over the rest of the market.
Fundamental
While the white house cannot get it together to pass the fiscal stimulus, transportation could be a gainer as it is likely they will spend on Infrastructure.
Gold Potentially Retracing, Prepare to Buy LongTechnicals:
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$16.03 and $16.61 are approximately the short term support and resistance levels, forming a channel where the price is being pulled horizontally. This area also appears to be a price consolidation point around $16.38 following an April 20th high volume day.
Fundamentals:
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Gold is trending up. This momentum is due both to the medium term high VIX volatility and an overall pattern of prices rising after a market correction/downturn event. This correlation of gold to volatility and market correction follows a similar pattern from 2006 to 2011.
Strategy:
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Longer term call options are ideal for the current market. Purchase 3-month long call options if IAU breaks through $16.60 or if it retraces to $16.03.
SPY hitting a critical resistance zone on declining volume. SPY has been on a run since it tested its 200 weekly moving average back in December, but the rally may soon be over. This rally has been on declining volume (this basically means volume isn't confirming this rally, which indicates a bearish divergence, as the price is rising, but the volume is declining), and the weekly Stochastic appears to be preparing for a turn to the downside. We are also at a previous resistance level which has rejected the price several times in the past. To me, it looks like a correction/pull-back is in the cards.
Moving average guide (All weekly moving averages for this post):
10 MA in Orange
20 MA in Pink
50 MA in Green
100 MA in Yellow
200 MA in Red
-This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and own due-diligence before investing and trading, as for investing and trading comes with high amounts of risk.
Ah... China, and we've just begun - yellow line of despairWe won't be getting higher than the yellow line any time soon.
With recent events around China's "real" numbers coming in (who knows what's real anymore?) and the issues around oil production (which are NEVER going away b/c in 15 years we won't even need oil anymore), the market is in a major, structure re-evaluation phase. Why?
1. Global unease in the old model of forever growth, which is unsustainable
2. QE x 17 or whatever and people realizing that money isn't actually worth anything (currency)
3. All the old people (baby boomers) cashing in their retirement accounts so they can buy that giant bus conversion and finally go visit their grand kids.
4. Marijuana. If you want to decrease employee productivity... give it to them.