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AMD: How to proceed when a stock is trending THAT STRONGLY?Hello traders and investors! AMD is flying, and this might be a reason for some people to get nervous – those who are in, and those who missed the opportunity. Let’s calmly analyze AMD through a technical view, and see what we can do here. First, no, it is not a good time to buy . Regardless of what AMD will do next, the Risk/Reward ratio is not good right now . The moment to buy was after my analysis on Jul 16, when we nailed with astonishing precision the next movements on AMD (this one was a public analysis, link below). We should always buy near supports, when we see a good buy pattern, preferably. If you plan to buy AMD, you should wait for it to form a bottom, or hit one of its support levels, which might be the 21 ema. If the momentum is strong enough, AMD will do a sideways correction, and the 21 ema will catch up with the price in the future, instead of dropping to lower levels. But for now, we are trending, and the volume is very high , confirming the bullish bias (according to Dow Theory, 5th tenet). If you are on AMD, and is afraid of a pullback, or don’t want to lose profits, there’re two strategies for you, that can help you to rip off the useless emotions out of you, that are making you nervous and stressed. First, a technical strategy is to set a trailing stop-gain under the previous day’s low, and if AMD loses it, then the market will simply cash you out. Then, just buy back near when AMD forms a bottom or gets closer to its support levels (sooner or later, it’ll do it). Another strategy is to wait for a bearish structure in the 1h chart. In the chart above, you see an example of a bearish pivot point, which could cause a pullback on AMD in the daily chart. If you see a lower high/low, then it might be an excuse to sell. It could be a bearish pivot point, an H&S, a Double Top… Any bearish reversal pattern might work for you. So far, AMD didn’t do any of these patterns, it didn’t trigger any trailing stop, and there’s nothing indicating it’ll drop. All we can assume is that it’ll keep flying, until we see a clear reversal sign (Dow Theory, 6th tenet). What strategy you find more interesting? Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies! Thank you very much!
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:AMD
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
23
AAPL: Complete trend analysis for the week.Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AAPL is doing today! First, in the 1h chart, we have a purple trendline connecting the previous bottoms, creating a bullish bias on the short-term. However, in the mid-term, it seems AAPL is still in a congestion, and the main resistance is the $ 150, while the support levels at $ 141.62 and $ 142.56 are a floor for AAPL. It is interesting to notice that when it reported Earnings, AAPL dropped to fill the gap at $ 142.56, and it quickly bounced back up. Even during extremely volatile moments, we can find some sense of the movements, using technical analysis. Now, let’s look at the daily chart: Despite the Double Bottom pattern, the trend is still bullish, as the 21 ema is still pointing up, and AAPL found a support at it, as it couldn’t close under the indicator. It is not the strongest bull trend, as we lack higher highs, but we are not doing lower lows either, so, we can assume that the movement seen in the past month is more like a brief congestion. Let’s remember the 5th Tenet of Dow Theory: Trends persist, until a clear reversal occurs. For now, we have nothing new on AAPL, and we can assume it’ll seek the ATH. If we lose the 21 ema, we might seek the $ 141.62, or even the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement. The 50% retracement would be the best support, but I don’t see AAPL going there, as we lack stronger bearish signs. It would be phenomenal if we seek the 50%, as in the weekly chart we see that this point was a previous resistance, and it is close to the 21 ema as well. But for now, AAPL is still bullish, and although we don’t have any good reason to buy it right now, we don’t have good reasons to sell either. Now is the time to wait for AAPL to do something clear to us, before doing anything. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies! And support this idea if it helped you!
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
EUR/USD TOWARDS POSSIBLE REVERSAL !! TIME FOR LONG !!EUR/USD Is Certainly Near The Reversal Which Means That Eur/Usd will Possibly Rise therefore its a BUYING/LONG OPPORTUNITY. The reversal often takes a few legs before occurring therefore a strict Stop Loss level is suggested as well. Find the Buying zone, Stop Loss and Targets below! Note: This is for education purpose only. Do your own research before any action! Buying-Zone : 1.18250-1.18300 Stop Loss: 1.17920 1st Target: 1.20730 2nd Target: Will be discussed on updated part
Long
by M_Shariq
SPX: A new record high! Should we be nervous about it?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today! Once again, we have a new record high on the SPX, and this was already expected. I thought we were going to see another pullback, at least in the 1h chart, but it seems the bears can’t stand against the momentum. But should we be nervous about it? Well, let's see what technical analysis has for us. This movement corroborates with the 6th tenet of the Dow Theory: Trends persist, until a clear reversal occurs . So far, we had no reversal sign around, only pullback signs. We dropped sharply to the previous support at 4,289 (even went a little bit below this point), but this was a just a false breakout. Could the SPX drop again? Of course, but there’s nothing telling me that it’ll. The key point that could make it drop more is the 4,393 . If the SPX closes under it today, or does a bearish candlestick in the beginning of next week and closes below it as well, then we might see another pullback. The intensity of this possible pullback is unknown. We could retest the 21 ema and quickly recover, or hit the purple trendline (we would need to see a stronger bearish structure in the 1h chart for this). Truth be told, it has been some time since we didn’t touch the 21 ema in the weekly chart . If the index corrects to such a point, keep in mind that the long-term trend would still be bullish, as we still would have higher highs/lows. For now, we can just assume the trend will persist, and wait for a clear reversal sign, as Charles Dow, the father of Technical Analysis, wisely advised us to do, nearly one century ago. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. And support this idea if it helped you! Have a good weekend!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
SPX: The most important Dow Theory's tenet!Hello traders and investors! We have a new record high today, but how this is going to affect us? First, there’s nothing telling us that the index might drop again. We have a healthy bull trend, and this is characterized by higher highs and higher lows . Pullbacks are natural movements, and so far, they were just opportunities to buy. Will the market drop again? Absolutely . However, let’s remember the 6th tenet of the Dow Theory: Trends persist until a clear reversal occurs . I think this is the most overlooked tenet, and ironically, the most important one . As long as we don’t see a clear reversal pattern, there’s nothing to do, but keep saying that pullbacks are opportunities to buy (like I’ve been saying for the last year, and my followers are aware of this). Some people might be nervous in buying stocks at such a high level, but to me, it seems people will always find an excuse to be afraid . When the Covid hit us hard last year, giving many amazing opportunities, I’ve seen people afraid too. In the end, it doesn’t matter too much, and it is all about you. If you just know where to look, and if you pick the right stocks. As crazy as this sounds, I still see several opportunities around , regardless of the market’s movements. Now, what could cause a pullback on the SPX? The answer is: A bearish structure . If higher highs/lows are a trait of a bull trend, if we suddenly see lower highs/lows in the 1h chart, probably we’ll correct in the daily chart. Something like this: Of course, it is not always that perfect, but you know what I mean. This could cause a pullback to the 21 ema in the daily chart, and this is as far as I can go now. There’s nothing telling us that this will happen . Let’s focus on the technique, and not trade what we want to see, but what we are seeing right now. Now it is not the time to buy SPX, but this doesn’t mean it’ll crash again. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies. And please, support this idea before you leave! Thank you very much. Have a good weekend/holiday!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1
Dow Theory, AppliedDow Theory is a foundational set of principles that underlies modern technical analysis. One of the main tenants of the theory involves trend confirmation by comparing similarities between equity indices' price behavior. Originally, the Dow Transportation Index was used to confirm trend direction in the Dow Industrial Index. Now things are a bit more complicated, with multiple indices covering a wide array of sectors and ever-evolving niche technologies. To get a confluence of direction across the four major American indices (DJI, SPX, IXIC, RUT) to close the week has not been a simple task. I believe this is one of the reasons why a systemic selloff has been delayed in spite of the increasingly opaque economic picture. There are just too many cross-correlates that offset each other on the basis of what each sector "should" do in such-and-such situation. For example, the notion of fleeing to technology as a safety measure may have manifested as a "real" reaction in the middle of 2020, but it was the media's promulgation of such an idea that popularized it into today's common market wisdom. In any case, I would argue that fleeing into tech will work until it doesn't - and that day is looking closer by the hour. Literally. Just take a look at the four charts displayed above - each of the four indices mentioned sports a bearish hourly candle to close the week. While this is subtle information, I was able to see the price action from a tape reader's point of view, and I will tell you that the price movement during this last hour was categorically different than any I have seen in months. This was real selling; institutional selling en masse. Each of the four underlying ETFs were seemingly stuck in quicksand for an hour and in order to confirm this back=end observation, I turned to the charts after the close. The results depicted above depict consistent heavy selling across all four indices, in the form of nasty looking candles to close the session. Charles Dow and his then-clever, and now-accepted theory, would point to this as a prime example, were he still trying to convince the world of its validity. While nothing is certain in markets, this is some pretty compelling data suggesting that, at the very least, there will be some serious volatility for the first time in a long time. I'm short, but it's not so simple with the other side being a hysterical bubble and all. My suggestion is to get creative and take advantage of the four-way confirm. -ConfirmPig TVC:IXIC CURRENCYCOM:US100 TVC:SPX CURRENCYCOM:US500 TVC:DJI CURRENCYCOM:US30 AMEX:IWM TVC:RUT
TVC:DJIEducation
by UnknownUnicorn5511258
4
PLTR: Harmless pullback or reversal? How to tell the difference!Hello traders and investors! Yes, PLTR hit the $ 27.45 as we said it would in our last study (the link to my previous idea is below this post), but what to do now? The $ 27.45 is a secondary target in my view, but it is working very well as a resistance. Now we can expect some struggle around this area, and the fact that PLTR dropped below its 21 ema in the 1h chart reinforces this idea. It is interesting to notice that it is dropping a lot, but the volume is not that good . This tells us that this is not a true bearish movement, just a harmless pullback. This resistance is quite relevant in the daily chart, and today we have a Bearish Engulfing (so far). This might cause a pullback to the purple trendline or even to the 21 ema again. This wouldn’t be surprising, and PLTR will still remain bullish. Remember: In a bull trend, we have higher highs/lows, but we do have lows . Sometimes, people get anxious when we are doing higher lows, and think it is the end of the world. To identify a harmless pullback, just look at the volume: If it is dropping, with lower volume, than it is just a pullback. This follows the 5th tenet of Dow Theory: The volume must confirm the trend. If the volume doesn’t confirm the trend, we must be careful. If you see a bearish structure, like lower highs/lows, then we are talking about a reversal sign. Today’s movement doesn’t change my target on PLTR, at $ 31.34, and since we bought around the $ 20, we are in a very comfortable situation. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. Also, support this idea if it helped you! Thank you very much!
Editors' picks
NYSE:PLTR
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
39
AAPL: A correction ahead?Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about AAPL today! We are in a strong bull trend, and AAPL is doing higher highs/lows in the 1h chart. I see no clear reversal or pullback sign around as well. The $ 134.58 is working as support, and it was previously a resistance. The 21 ema is quite close to this point, making it a dual-support level in the short-term. If AAPL loses this green line, the purple line is the next target. However, so far, we have no weakness signs on AAPL. In the daily chart, we see that the target for this movement is the $ 136.84, and it seems AAPL will hit there, but the volume is decreasing. This tells us that we might see a correction after AAPL hits its target, but remember: corrections are not reversals. Apple is still in a bull trend, and it will keep trending, as long as we don’t see a clear reversal movement – Dow Theory, 6th tenet. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. And please, support this idea if it helped you! Thank you very much.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
9
Alt season is here! Is Still too late to get in? Looking at the YTD chart of top 10 alts, I found out that all of them have outperformed bitcoin. Eth, Binance, Dot, Ada are providing the blockchain entrepreneurial infrastructure for projects to create Dapps (Decentralized applications) and DAO's (Decentralized autonomous organizations), allowing new decentralized solutions as DeFi, and NFT’s. Fundamentally backed by blockchain technology, a new era of startups promises to disrupt and take market share in many industries, will it achieve it? We don't know, but right now the hype cycle has kicked in and the risk of missing out (ROMO) is higher than investing in crypto. So you’re still not late to buy some alts. This might be one of the biggest alt seasons of all times.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by DiegoCW
LTC possible correction support levelsIf LTC corrects, from the hi/lo and volume I deduced it could reach the marked support levels. From the overall popularity and demand for crypto I think that in the medium-term the trend is looking to be bullish . I know corrections are usually considered 10% falls in price, but for crypto I feel the percentages are a bit off. Feel free to to leave a comment if you have some thoughts on ETH, BTC or LTC :) or if you see something I have missed in this short analysis of LTC. Right now I have a little bit FOMO, but I would feel uneasy just throwing some money into crypto without waiting for a little pull-back, knowing that there is a chance of bouncing from the support levels. I don't see anything like that for the future price of crypto. Is the price going to fall after raising another 10 or 20 or 30%? I don't know.. but what I feel like I might know is - big tech is investing into crypto, and incorporating its platforms (ETH) into their systems. So I feel like a fall of 10 % or even 20 % would be seen as a big buying opportunity by everyone, making the price jump back up. Well, those are my thoughts for now, have a wonderful day! „You don't want to put all your money on one horse in this business; nine times out of ten, the second horse comes first.” Michael Caine
Long
by Ov3rL0rd
Introduction to Dow TheoryThe Dow Theory is the core of contemporary technical research. Its premises have stood the test of time and underpin the study of market behavior research. The basic principles of Dow Theory and their importance in today's markets will be discussed in this article. Origins and History of the Dow Theory Many of the early studies that contributed to what is now known as Dow Theory is credited to Charles H. Dow. Dow's successor, William P. Hamilton, continued to establish and organize many of Dow's initial early publications, including the Wall Street Journal editorials written at the turn of the twentieth century. Robert Rhea, a Hamilton student, was later responsible for categorizing, refining, and formal codifying Dow's fundamental principles, which were set out in Rhea's book The Dow Principle. In 1884, Dow reported an 11-stock stock market average, which he later extended into a 12-stock Industrial Index and a 20-stock Railroad Average. Instead of attempting to gauge market activity by individual stock movement, Dow decided to build an index of stocks that would better represent the aggregate action of the markets. The averages' movement was intended to serve as a barometer of the overall business environment. Since then, the 12-stock Industrial Index has morphed into the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which now contains 30 stocks. Market trends according to Dow Theory Robert Rhea explains in this book that three distinct patterns are considered to prevail in the market according to Charles H. Dow. 1. Primary trend – that lasts from months to years 2. Secondary reaction (intermediate trend) – weeks to months in duration 3. Short term trend – days to weeks The Primary trend The primary pattern is by far the largest, and it is typically predicted to last months to years. Main trends, according to Rhea, are less vulnerable to distortion and therefore provide a more accurate indicator for investment decisions. There are 2 types of primary trends: primary bull trend and primary bear trend . An uptrend is described in Dow Theory as a series of successively higher highs and lows. The concept "downtrend" refers to a sequence of lower highs and lows. Primary trends have 3 phases. A primary bull or bear trend consists of these 3 phases: a) Accumulation phase b) Trending phase c) Distribution phase Accumulation usually happens after a sharp and fast drop in values, usually as a result of companies releasing extremely negative results. At this point, the uninformed market participants are normally incredibly bearish, selling whatever shares they have left at any amount. Market investors who are well informed and trained continue to buy shares at incredibly low levels. The uptrend and downtrend phases make up the trend process. After a sustained and dramatic rise in prices, distribution usually occurs. Both newspapers and news reports are extremely bullish, and businesses appear to outperform. Uninformed market traders are prone to being too bullish, buying up whatever shares are available in the market at any expense, a condition known as excessive exuberance. Margin debt is at an all-time high. During the distribution process, smart investors begin to liquidate shares steadily, taking care not to push down rates too fast so that they can continue to sell at higher prices. The secondary trend or reaction The secondary trend or reaction moves or reacts in the opposite direction of the existing primary trend. It normally lasts a few weeks to three months, but it can last a little longer in some cases. The secondary reaction typically retraces one-third to two-thirds of the spectrum of the primary trend. Any retracement or reversal of more than two-thirds of a percent on big volume typically suggests that the secondary response is a new primary bear market. Dow Theory further emphasizes the value and psychological meaning of the 50% retracement stage, which is a viewpoint held by another influential technician, W. D. Gann. The minor trend Minor patterns aren't taken into account in Dow Theory. “The stock market is not rational in its fluctuations from day to day,” Hamilton wrote in his book The Stock Market Barometer. Minor patterns will last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. Trade with care. If you like our content, please feel free to support our page with a like, comment & subscribe for future educational ideas and trading setups.
TVC:DJIEducation
by financialflagship
29