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AMD: Pullback + Low Volume = Dow Theory 5th Tenet.Hello traders and investors! Yes, AMD finally hit the 21 ema in the daily chart, which is something we were already expecting since our last study, but is it a good time to buy? We’ll see. This analysis is another real-life example of how to apply Dow Theory in our chart reading. Last week I said to you and I’ll just quote myself: “I would prefer to see it at the 21 ema , and there’s still a good chance that we’ll see this happening.” This analysis is public, and the link to it is below this post. But there’s something else, as it is not only the 21 ema which is holding the price, but the 50% Fibonacci’s Retracement too. Therefore, we are sitting at a very strong dual-support level, and now it is the best place for a bullish reversal pattern. The fact that AMD dropped with low volume confirms that the recent drop was just a correction. According to the 5th tenet of Dow Theory , the volume must increase when the movement favors the primary trend, and decreases when the price goes against it. Clearly, the primary trend on AMD is bullish, and drops are just corrections. Not only the odds favor the bulls, but the Risk/Reward ratio too. The price was above the $ 120 recently, and now it is a terrible time to sell. If I were shorting it, I would probably be buying it back right now at the dual-support level, as the chances of a reversal are high, and there’s not much more downside potential. In the 1h chart, we don’t have a clear bullish structure, but if AMD defeats the $ 106.17 it’ll bring something new , and might be the beginning of a bullish reversal. Personally, I’m not convinced that AMD will fly again so soon, and I would rather prefer to see more sideways movement for a while. However, I agree that now it is the best place for AMD to find its bottom and start doing bullish patterns again. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. Thank you very much!
NASDAQ:AMD
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
SPX: You must pay attention to these Key Points!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today! This new record high is not a big surprise for us, as we’ve been discussing here, the trend is clearly bullish, and we have not a single pullback sign around. Let’s remember the most overlooked tenet of the Dow Theory: Trends persist, until a clear reversal occurs. What could make SPX drop more and do a pullback? Now I see the red line at 4,429 and the 21 ema as the main support levels. If the index loses both points, then we might see a decent pullback in the daily chart. In the daily chart, we have the 4,393 and the 21 ema to hold the price, if it drops. This would mean a drop of less than 1%. Could it drop more? Of course, but we would need to see a stronger bearish structure. For now, let’s keep our eyes on these points, and keep in mind that the trend is bullish until it isn’t. When it reverses, the charts will warn us. Follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. Thank you very much, Have a great weekend.
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
AMD: How to proceed when a stock is trending THAT STRONGLY?Hello traders and investors! AMD is flying, and this might be a reason for some people to get nervous – those who are in, and those who missed the opportunity. Let’s calmly analyze AMD through a technical view, and see what we can do here. First, no, it is not a good time to buy . Regardless of what AMD will do next, the Risk/Reward ratio is not good right now . The moment to buy was after my analysis on Jul 16, when we nailed with astonishing precision the next movements on AMD (this one was a public analysis, link below). We should always buy near supports, when we see a good buy pattern, preferably. If you plan to buy AMD, you should wait for it to form a bottom, or hit one of its support levels, which might be the 21 ema. If the momentum is strong enough, AMD will do a sideways correction, and the 21 ema will catch up with the price in the future, instead of dropping to lower levels. But for now, we are trending, and the volume is very high , confirming the bullish bias (according to Dow Theory, 5th tenet). If you are on AMD, and is afraid of a pullback, or don’t want to lose profits, there’re two strategies for you, that can help you to rip off the useless emotions out of you, that are making you nervous and stressed. First, a technical strategy is to set a trailing stop-gain under the previous day’s low, and if AMD loses it, then the market will simply cash you out. Then, just buy back near when AMD forms a bottom or gets closer to its support levels (sooner or later, it’ll do it). Another strategy is to wait for a bearish structure in the 1h chart. In the chart above, you see an example of a bearish pivot point, which could cause a pullback on AMD in the daily chart. If you see a lower high/low, then it might be an excuse to sell. It could be a bearish pivot point, an H&S, a Double Top… Any bearish reversal pattern might work for you. So far, AMD didn’t do any of these patterns, it didn’t trigger any trailing stop, and there’s nothing indicating it’ll drop. All we can assume is that it’ll keep flying, until we see a clear reversal sign (Dow Theory, 6th tenet). What strategy you find more interesting? Remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies! Thank you very much!
NASDAQ:AMD
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
23
AAPL: Complete trend analysis for the week.Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how AAPL is doing today! First, in the 1h chart, we have a purple trendline connecting the previous bottoms, creating a bullish bias on the short-term. However, in the mid-term, it seems AAPL is still in a congestion, and the main resistance is the $ 150, while the support levels at $ 141.62 and $ 142.56 are a floor for AAPL. It is interesting to notice that when it reported Earnings, AAPL dropped to fill the gap at $ 142.56, and it quickly bounced back up. Even during extremely volatile moments, we can find some sense of the movements, using technical analysis. Now, let’s look at the daily chart: Despite the Double Bottom pattern, the trend is still bullish, as the 21 ema is still pointing up, and AAPL found a support at it, as it couldn’t close under the indicator. It is not the strongest bull trend, as we lack higher highs, but we are not doing lower lows either, so, we can assume that the movement seen in the past month is more like a brief congestion. Let’s remember the 5th Tenet of Dow Theory: Trends persist, until a clear reversal occurs. For now, we have nothing new on AAPL, and we can assume it’ll seek the ATH. If we lose the 21 ema, we might seek the $ 141.62, or even the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement. The 50% retracement would be the best support, but I don’t see AAPL going there, as we lack stronger bearish signs. It would be phenomenal if we seek the 50%, as in the weekly chart we see that this point was a previous resistance, and it is close to the 21 ema as well. But for now, AAPL is still bullish, and although we don’t have any good reason to buy it right now, we don’t have good reasons to sell either. Now is the time to wait for AAPL to do something clear to us, before doing anything. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies! And support this idea if it helped you!
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
2
EUR/USD TOWARDS POSSIBLE REVERSAL !! TIME FOR LONG !!EUR/USD Is Certainly Near The Reversal Which Means That Eur/Usd will Possibly Rise therefore its a BUYING/LONG OPPORTUNITY. The reversal often takes a few legs before occurring therefore a strict Stop Loss level is suggested as well. Find the Buying zone, Stop Loss and Targets below! Note: This is for education purpose only. Do your own research before any action! Buying-Zone : 1.18250-1.18300 Stop Loss: 1.17920 1st Target: 1.20730 2nd Target: Will be discussed on updated part
Long
by M_Shariq
SPX: A new record high! Should we be nervous about it?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today! Once again, we have a new record high on the SPX, and this was already expected. I thought we were going to see another pullback, at least in the 1h chart, but it seems the bears can’t stand against the momentum. But should we be nervous about it? Well, let's see what technical analysis has for us. This movement corroborates with the 6th tenet of the Dow Theory: Trends persist, until a clear reversal occurs . So far, we had no reversal sign around, only pullback signs. We dropped sharply to the previous support at 4,289 (even went a little bit below this point), but this was a just a false breakout. Could the SPX drop again? Of course, but there’s nothing telling me that it’ll. The key point that could make it drop more is the 4,393 . If the SPX closes under it today, or does a bearish candlestick in the beginning of next week and closes below it as well, then we might see another pullback. The intensity of this possible pullback is unknown. We could retest the 21 ema and quickly recover, or hit the purple trendline (we would need to see a stronger bearish structure in the 1h chart for this). Truth be told, it has been some time since we didn’t touch the 21 ema in the weekly chart . If the index corrects to such a point, keep in mind that the long-term trend would still be bullish, as we still would have higher highs/lows. For now, we can just assume the trend will persist, and wait for a clear reversal sign, as Charles Dow, the father of Technical Analysis, wisely advised us to do, nearly one century ago. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. And support this idea if it helped you! Have a good weekend!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
SPX: The most important Dow Theory's tenet!Hello traders and investors! We have a new record high today, but how this is going to affect us? First, there’s nothing telling us that the index might drop again. We have a healthy bull trend, and this is characterized by higher highs and higher lows . Pullbacks are natural movements, and so far, they were just opportunities to buy. Will the market drop again? Absolutely . However, let’s remember the 6th tenet of the Dow Theory: Trends persist until a clear reversal occurs . I think this is the most overlooked tenet, and ironically, the most important one . As long as we don’t see a clear reversal pattern, there’s nothing to do, but keep saying that pullbacks are opportunities to buy (like I’ve been saying for the last year, and my followers are aware of this). Some people might be nervous in buying stocks at such a high level, but to me, it seems people will always find an excuse to be afraid . When the Covid hit us hard last year, giving many amazing opportunities, I’ve seen people afraid too. In the end, it doesn’t matter too much, and it is all about you. If you just know where to look, and if you pick the right stocks. As crazy as this sounds, I still see several opportunities around , regardless of the market’s movements. Now, what could cause a pullback on the SPX? The answer is: A bearish structure . If higher highs/lows are a trait of a bull trend, if we suddenly see lower highs/lows in the 1h chart, probably we’ll correct in the daily chart. Something like this: Of course, it is not always that perfect, but you know what I mean. This could cause a pullback to the 21 ema in the daily chart, and this is as far as I can go now. There’s nothing telling us that this will happen . Let’s focus on the technique, and not trade what we want to see, but what we are seeing right now. Now it is not the time to buy SPX, but this doesn’t mean it’ll crash again. If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies. And please, support this idea before you leave! Thank you very much. Have a good weekend/holiday!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
1