Get started

Dowtheory

TITAN - 5G - Lumen Tech. $LUMN - The 4th Industrial RevolutionI am ultra bullish on Smart cities, AI, edge computing, 5G/6G telecommunications, cybersecurity and AR/VR. Lumen Technologies (CenturyLink) seems to be a sleeping giant that checks all those boxes. Lumen is facing a similar situation as Nokia and Blackberry as value company which is about to enter a second growth cycle, and like Palantir Technologies, it is facing a situation of massive short selling pressure during institutional accumulation. The ruthless manipulation after earnings beat signals to me how bullish institutions are on the company, and the overwhelming (unreasonable) bear sentiment signals that the shakeout is upon us. FA: Highlights: "Lumen Technologies is the only company to win Frost & Sullivan's prestigious 2021 Global New Product Innovation Award". Who are they? - "Lumen brings together the talent, experience, infrastructure and capabilities of CenturyLink, Level 3 and 25+ other technology companies to create a new kind of company—one designed specifically to address the dynamic data and application needs of the 4th Industrial Revolution." - Company website. - Already is the global leader for fiber network. Lumen has the largest ultra-low-loss fiber network in North America with 3.5 million miles of high-capacity. - Owns the world’s most-connected CDN (Content Delivery Network). What do they do? - "Lumen is an enterprise technology platform that enables companies to capitalize on emerging applications and power the 4th Industrial Revolution". They are focused on the 5G/6G sector, which I speculate will see explosive growth soon. - "We integrate network assets, cloud connectivity, security solutions and voice and collaboration tools into one platform that enables businesses to leverage their data and adopt next-generation technologies." - Focused rebranding for edge computing solutions and 5G sector. - Lumen has partnered with VMware to develop cybersecurity software: Distributed Denial of Service (DDoS) Mitigation, Web Application Firewall (WAF), Bot Risk Management (BRM). - Black Lotus Labs is their threat research arm, the world’s most deeply peered networks and industry-leading endpoint protection and datacenter virtualization. Key Products: - Premises Edge: Tactile Internet, Virtual reality, Augmented reality. - Metro Edge: Smart manufacturing, Video analytics, POS transactions, Retail robotics, IoT. - Cloud Core: AI/ML platforms, Big data analytics, Disaster recovery, SaaS, Cloud storage, Hyperscale environments. Clients: - Salesforce, Zoom are big customers already. Financial Performance: - Growth & Trend shows they are almost profitable: Reported a Net Loss of $1.232 billion for the full year 2020, compared to a Net Loss of $5.269 billion for the full year 2019. Excluding Integration and Transformation Costs and Special Items, reported Net Income was $1.801 billion for the full year 2020 compared to $1.409 billion for the full year 2019. The trend is positive. - Cash Flow Positive. - Invested Capital and Total Assets are decreasing, yet total liabilities and debt decreasing, while CapEx is increasing. - Reduced Net Debt by approximately $1.6 billion and reduced leverage to 3.6x Net-Debt-to-Adjusted EBITDA. - For 2021, Lumen has debt obligations of $2.4 Bn still. - However, Lumen had $34.1 Bn of debt in 2020. - LUMN finished the year with $2.9 billion in free cash flow and a requirement of $1.1 billion to meet its dividend obligation. - Insiders & Insider Trading: -0.92% - Institutional Ownership: 79% - About 659 funds hold LUMN, and interestingly enough, while the stock price dumped, Average 13F Ranking has been steadily increasing. This aligns with the Accumulation Distribution model that I presented. - Float: 976.12M. - Short % of Float: 7.51%. - Valuation: 0.97 P/B ratio and 0.64 P/S ratio. Undervalued, by traditional valuations. - Financial Reporting: Solid. - Potential: 5G Market: Market size value in 2020: USD 41.48 Billion Revenue forecast in 2027: USD 664 Billion "The global 5G Applications and Services Market is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.8% from 2019 to 2027" (According to 180+ page research report by Fidelity National Financial) - Lumen Technologies should benefit from the growth of the 5G market, so we can expect 25.8% CAGR in revenue from their market share of 5G, and factor in growing market dominance. TA: - Accumulation/Distribution Phases are rather difficult to predict with Elliot Wave Theory, so Dow Theory will be used instead. - Expecting 600%+ move up on breakout. - MACD long term analysis: - Short term outlook: Fib support level, with a big whale buy. Looks ready to move up. - MACD short term bullish divergence: - Stoch RSI indicating possibly one more shakeout: - Historical analysis showing this is likely, if the same whale is in charge: - However, Fib levels indicate that it cannot possibly go much lower! QA: - Interestingly, it would take 5.7 days for shorts to fully cover. It is likely the shorting was used to take the price down from the previous distribution level. Great short squeeze potential. - Naked short selling report collected from FINRA shows that naked short volume was massive in the end of Jan. Most likely to suppress the price at the resistance point. Institutions were not positioned for the breakout yet. - Options flow does not present high gamma squeeze potential, however, the low OI presents a very good long entry. VERDICT: - The company is reducing debt and leverage. This is smart, as there is sentiment that a market correction and stagflation is nearing. - The critical point that investors will need to decide on is if the company can survive such conditions with their remaining debt. At this point, it looks like their debt will soon be eliminated, and they will be profitable. - It is my speculation that in the case of a tech correction, and a rotation into value, tech will still thrive, but it is companies like these - non-speculative, but necessary, will be real winners. A lot of retail excess will be trimmed from unreasonably valued companies. At least some Institutional investors seem to share this sentiment, judging from their accumulation. - This company checks many boxes for me, and looks ready for an explosive move up, so I assign it an S-tier rating. STRATEGY: - Accumulate. - Entry levels: 7.50, 4.00. - Trigger for Long: breakout of falling wedge resistance. - Wave 3 PT: 80.00. - Wave 5 PT: 130.00. I think the Impulse wave 3 target of 80 aligns with the MACD signaling a 600% move-up to come. This is a high probability level. This would put the company's valuation at 86B~, which is not unreasonable, and even still would be undervalued, in my opinion. GL, and if you like the content, give a like, leave a comment, and follow! P.S. Trying to take a more succinct presentation model for DD, based on constructive criticism I have been receiving.
NYSE:LUMNLong
by UnknownUnicorn1043646
9
AAPL: Good reaction above a TRIPLE-SUPPORT level!Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about AAPL today! In my last analysis, we discussed the possibility of AAPL losing the Pennant downwards, and this is exactly what happened, given the daily chart was too stretched back then. If you missed my previous analysis, the link to it is below, as usual. Now, AAPL is reacting well, and it is trying to reverse this short-term bear trend. The stock is trading above the 21 ema again, this is good, but more importantly, it is doing higher highs/higher lows , and it triggered a bullish pivot point by defeating the red line at $ 136. Now, the $ 136 is working as support, along with the 21 ema. Let’s see the daily chart now: In my last analysis, I set a target at the black line ($ 137), as it was a strong previous resistance in the past, but when AAPL lost the Pennant in the hourly chart, the sell-off was so intense that it lost the black line, and it only found a support in the next bottom area, made by the 21 ema and the red line at $ 132 (previous top) and the purple trendline, filling a gap on the way. This was a very strong triple-support level , and now it seems AAPL is starting to react, the only thing that concerns me is the low volume. According to the 5th tenet of the Dow Theory , “the volume must confirm the trend”, and when the volume doesn’t follow the price, we have a divergence . If AAPL loses this triple-support level again (which will not be easy), then we may start to think about a sharper correction, but this wouldn’t be enough for a reversal yet. We must follow Apple closely, and if you liked this idea, remember to follow me , and please, support this analysis ! Thank you very much. Have a great weekend.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
SPX: New record! What's next? A complete analysis (H,D and W).Hello traders and investors! Let’s analyze the SPX this Friday, and do our usual complete Multi Time Frame Analysis (MTFA) by looking at the 1h, D and W charts! The index did a new record high today, which is incredible, and so far, there’s no top, pullback or reversal sign around here. The black line at 3870 is a support level, but the index could drop all the way to the 21 ema, and the trend would still be bullish. The 3827 seems to be another Key Point , but the 3870 is more relevant, and we can see why by looking at the daily chart. The 3870 is the previous All Time High, and if the SPX closes under it next week, then the odds of a sharper pullback increase dramatically. In the daily chart we have some very solid and strong support levels at the 21 ema and purple trendline area , and this area would be a target if the index loses the 3870 again. We should be aware of the low volume seen this week, which is not following the price. According to the 5th Tenet of the Dow Theory, “the volume must confirm the trend”. When we see a divergence like this, is an alert sign to us. Now, the weekly chart: Yep, the index denied completely the Bearish Engulfing seen last week, frustrating any expectation of a pullback to the 21 ema in the weekly chart. Now, the index is doing another ATH, giving a headache to the bears, and again, not a single top/pullback/reversal sign around. We must keep our eyes open and focus on the points mentioned in this analysis, and if you liked it, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my ideas, and please, support this idea if it helped you! Have a great weekend!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
9
SPX: Key Points we must keep in mind!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how SPX is doing today! The volatility increased a lot recently, and this led to a false breakout from the support level at 3827, which is a Key Point that worked as support and resistance in the past, as evidenced by the black line. Also, the previous Gap area worked as a nice support as well. Since the index is trapped between this black line and the ATH (green line at 3861), and the 21 ema is flat, we can say that we have a Congestion , and the SPX must break free from it, in order to either resume the bull trend, or collapse to lower levels. The daily chart may give us more clues: Yep, the 3827 is the Jan 8 All Time High, and it seems it is working as a support now. Not a surprise, as it is just following the Principle of Polarity of the Technical Analysis. Today’s candlestick is quite impressive, so far, as we have a huge shadow under the candlestick’s body, indicating that the bull trend is still here, and we won’t see it changing until a clear reversal occurs ( Dow Theory, 6th tenet ). If the index loses again the 3827 (and closes under it), then the SPX could drop again to the Purple Trendline, and this wouldn’t be enough to change the bullish bias. The index didn’t even retest the 21 ema yet, so the trend is very bullish, indeed. As long as we don’t see a clear reversal sign, the index will just continue to climb . And if you like this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies, and please, support this idea! Check my latest analyses on the links below. Thank you very much!
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
12
NIO: Should we panic or not?Hello traders and investors! It seems NIO is following the sell-off seen in the global markets today. Let’s see what’s going on. Well, NIO is just doing what we discussed in my last analysis, and since it lost the 21 ema in the hourly chart it triggered the pullback to the $ 57.20, all according to the plan. If you missed my previous analysis, just check the link below . Also, NIO just filled the last gap, making it an Exhaustion Gap , so it is natural that the bull trend will get weaker from now on. But this is not a reversal sign , just a weakness sign. The daily chart can give us more clues: The $ 57.20 is not a random number, it was a previous resistance and according to the Principle of Polarity of Technical Analysis, it is supposed to work as a support now, and it seems this is exactly what NIO is doing. If the pullback persists, it may touch the 21 ema in the daily chart, and this would be just an opportunity, since the chances are that this is just a harmless pullback. Why do I think it is a harmless pullback? For 2 reasons. First, the trend is bullish, and according to the Dow Theory 6th tenet, trends persist until a clear reversal occurs , and so far, no clear reversal. Second, NIO has been dropping in the last few days, yes, but the volume is too low, indicating that this is not a true sell-off, no one is aggressively selling NIO, but just the market resting. If the volume were bigger, then we would have a different story. If this analysis helped you, please, support it! And remember to follow me to keep in touch with my studies, and in the links below you’ll find some of my previous analyses. Thank you very much, have a great weekend!
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
43
PLUG: 3 exit strategies you can use now!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how PLUG is doing today! The stock is performing amazingly well, and so far, we didn’t see any reversal or pullback signs around. And I got some strategies you can use here if you are anxious or afraid of a pullback. First, I would put a trailing stop on the previous day’s low, and if PLUG closes under it, I would just get out of it and wait to buy back after a pullback to the 21 ema. Or I would use the hourly chart to guide me: As long as we don’t see any bearish pattern around, we are fine. PLUG is in a strong bull trend, doing higher highs/higher lows, and you could wait for a bearish pivot to appear to sell your position. Or you could wait for it to lose the 21 ema in the hourly chart , if you are more anxious. But since PLUG is in a very strong bull trend, if it drops, I would only see an opportunity to buy more. Pullbacks are different from reversals, and just like Dow stated on the 6th tenet of the Dow Theory: The trend will persist until a clear reversal occurs. If this analysis helped, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my studies, and please, support this idea if you liked it! You’ll find more analyses on the links below. Thank you very much.
NASDAQ:PLUG
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
SPX: New All Time High! So, what now?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how the SPX is doing today! We have a new record high today, which is incredible. This bullish momentum was triggered when the index did this classic Piercing Line pattern near a support level (purple line), which we discussed about my last analysis (Jan 4, link below as usual). Yesterday’s drop was quite unusual, but in the end, was just a pullback to the 21 ema, rather than an actual sell-off. Now the key point is the 3783 , as if the index loses it, we may see a sharper pullback, but still, wouldn’t be anything too drastic, as the trend is incredibly strong here. Now, the daily chart: The volume is increasing, which is another good sign, and we are quite far from the 21 ema. Again, if the index loses the 3783 a pullback to the 21 ema/green line at 3726 would be natural. So far, there are no pullback or reversal signs yet, and if SPX keeps above its supports, the bull trend will persist, until a clear reversal occurs, like Charles Dow would say ( Dow Theory 6th tenet ). If you liked this analysis, remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily studies. And support this idea if it helped you! Thank you very much.
SP:SPX
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
3
NIO: Two important Pivot Points for NIO!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how NIO is doing right now! First, NIO is still engaged in a bull trend, but it seems it is retesting the 21 ema. Any bullish reaction near this support level would be welcome, and NIO has a new pivot point , at the $ 45.57 (black line). If NIO triggers this pivot point, it could easily hit the $ 48.65 (pink line) again, which is another pivot point seen in the daily chart: The pink line is the pivot point here, and NIO must defeat it in order to resume the bull trend in the daily chart as well. NIO is trading above the 21 ema, which is a good sign, but the volume must increase. Volume is a trend’s fuel, and if NIO needs more volume to defeat the pink line. The movement is good so far, but the volume must confirm the trend (Dow Theory: 5th tenet). So far, we are doing well, but not perfect. Let’s watch NIO closely for more signs, and to keep in touch with my daily updates, remember to follow me! And please, support this idea if it helped you! Thank you very much.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
8
AAPL: A Key Point we all should be aware of!Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about Apple today! The key point for Apple in the short-term is the $ 121.98, because it was a previous top , which was defeated today, but if AAPL loses it again, the market may see this as a false breakout, and it could retest again the 21 ema. I wouldn’t say that Apple is in a strong bull trend, as we are still quite close to the previous top, and if we look at the daily chart, it seems we have a congestion: As we can see, the 21 ema is flat, and since the momentum is bullish in the hourly chart, at least, it seems Apple will retest the blue line at $ 125.39. But again, the purple line is the most important support here, and it is a pivot point as well. This makes me believe that in the mid-term Apple could hit the All Time High , but it must not lose the purple line again. Another good indicator is that the volume seems to be increasing, and this fuels the trend. If Apple is going to trigger this pivot point for good, we must see some volume! In the weekly chart we have a Pennant chart pattern, which was triggered this week, and the volume of the movement that made the Pennant is decreasing. This is another indicator that the trend is probably going to continue in the mid/long-run, according to the 5th tenet of the Dow Theory : The volume must confirm the trend. If the volume is decreasing during a pullback, then it is not a real sell-off. So far we have no clear reversal signs, but it is important to keep the $ 121.98 for now. And if you liked this analysis, remember to support it! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. Thank you very much.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
4
NIO: Pullback or Reversal?Hello traders and investors! Ok, NIO is dropping sharply today, let's see what's going on here. Today NIO lost the pink line that we discussed yesterday in my previous analysis, and if you missed it, the link to it is below . This is a sign that the trend is getting weaker, and the next stop would be the $ 42.51. But this doesn’t mean the bull trend is over, and the daily chart can tell us better: Ok, NIO lost the pink line as we discussed, but remember that this is a long-term bull trend , and it’ll continue this way until we see a clear reversal pattern . So far, the movement seen in the hourly chart just triggered a pullback in the daily chart. The 21 ema is an important support for NIO right now, and although it can drop more looking at the hourly chart, if we see any bullish reaction here tomorrow, it would be a great sign. Also, look at the volume . Since its All Time High it has been decreasing, and it is under average. The volume is a powerful indicator of the reliability of a movement. According to the 5th tenet of Dow Theory , the volume must confirm the trend, and when we see a correction against the main trend with low volume, it is a sign that it is just a harmless pullback. All of this makes me believe that this is just a pullback, but we don’t know where it’ll stop dropping. The 21 ema in the daily chart and the $ 42.51 are good candidates for a bottom area, but as long we don’t see confirmation around, there’s nothing else to do. And if you want to keep in touch with my NIO updates, remember to follow me , and support this idea if you liked it, Thank you very much.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
14
PLTR: Opportunity ahead?Hello traders and investors! Let’s talk about PLTR today! This stock is very popular now, and it is going up sharply, but are any reasons to worry about it? Let’s see. In the hourly chart we have a false breakout of a bearish pivot (green line at $ 26.14). PLTR did a breakout and it quickly hit the next support level, which is the pink line at $ 24.25 (previous top), and now it is recovering very well. If PLTR closes above the green line and above the 21 ema, it’ll be a good sign. But PLTR must not lose the pink line, as this could be a bull trap ! But let’s say it is a bull trap, and PLTR is going to fall, where would be the next support level? Maybe the daily chart will have our answers: It is interesting, because the green and the pink lines are Friday’s low and today’s low respectively. The trend is clearly bullish , and there are no reversal signs ahead. Again, let’s keep in mind the 6th Tenet of Dow Theory : “Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Occurs”. If PLTR loses the supports mentioned above, a pullback to the 21 ema is something we can expect, but again, this is not a reversal sign, just a pullback. Pullbacks are healthy movements that all stocks do, and they usually give us opportunities to buy/buy back/buy more. Meaning, if PLTR drops to the $ 20 again, I see no reason to worry. Also, the volume increased a lot during this bullish movement, which is good, as the volume confirms the trend. In the short-term, I would monitor the support levels mentioned in this analysis, but I wouldn’t be too worried about it. And if you like this analysis, then please, support it ! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. Thank you very much.
NYSE:PLTR
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
12
NIO: Complete Multiple Time Frame Analysis!Hello traders and investors! Let’s do a complete Multiple Time Frame Analysis (MTFA) on NIO today, looking at 3 different time frames. First, NIO is trading under the resistance at the green line $ 49.36, and above the 21 ema, this means that NIO is inside a Trap Zone . It could breakout to any direction, but since the trend is bullish, the odds favor the bulls here. If it loses the 21 ema, then a retest of the red line around $ 42.51 is the most likely scenario. Now, some of you are concerned about a pullback here, so let’s see the daily chart now: Ok, NIO is doing what seems to be a time correction , meaning that is moving sideways, waiting for the 21 ema to reach the price, instead of dropping to the 21 ema. This shows a lot of resilience, and we have no reason to worry. The volume is decreasing during this correction, which is natural. As we discussed in my Tesla analysis, according to the 5th tenet of the Dow Theory , the volume must confirm the trend. A correction with low volume is a harmless and acceptable movement, according to the technical analysis. In fact, this movement is quite similar to what Tesla did a few months ago. Maybe we'll have the same behaviour here. Either way, the 21 ema is here to hold the price if it drops more and would be a perfect buy opportunity. Now, the weekly chart: The trend is very bullish, and very strong here. Again, pullbacks would just offer opportunities to buy, but so far, we have no pullback sign here. Maybe if NIO loses the previous week’s low, we would see a decent pullback, but this is just a theory. Now is time to manage positions here, and keep in mind the points mentioned in this analysis. And if this idea helped you, please, support it ! And follow me to keep updated about my ideas on NIO, TSLA and other stocks. Thank you very much. Have a great weekend.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
13
TSLA: A complete Multiple Time Frame Analysis!Hello traders and investors! Today is Friday, so let’s do a complete Multi Time Frame Analysis (MTFA) by looking at the hourly, daily and weekly charts (short, mid and long-term). Starting with the hourly chart, the $ 493 is a pivot point for Tesla, and if it loses it, we may see some pullback ahead. Therefore, I said to you that this is a point to book profits. Always buy near supports and sell near resistances . If you missed my previous analysis, the link to it is below, as usual. A pullback to the 21 ema would be acceptable, or even the $ 461.88 (purple line), but we can’t possibly know if Tesla is going to reach there. I think the daily chart is looking more interesting: Ok, if Tesla loses yesterday’s low, the $ 487.57, it’ll reinforce the idea of a pullback, and the target would be the purple line, but if the momentum is strong enough, I doubt Tesla would hit there. We also have a Breakaway Gap and the volume is increasing. I find it very hard for Tesla to drop again to the support level around $ 406, because it would mean that Tesla would fill a Breakaway Gap, which is something it never did in the past . After most of the congestions, we have an upside movement triggered by a Breakaway Gap, with good volume. This is how Tesla behaves. Now, let’s see the weekly chart: Yes, Tesla is breaking out from a Pennant chart pattern , which is something to keep in mind. The trend is historically bullish, and the congestion we saw in the past months was just a pennant in the weekly chart. Notice the low volume of this pennant, which is a very technical movement, according to the Dow Theory , 5th tenet: The Volume Must Confirm the Trend. If the correction has low volume, then it is just a harmless correction, not a reversal sign. Speaking of reversal signs, there is none around. We would have a pullback sign if Tesla loses the $ 493 or yesterday’s low, but nothing that compromises the bull trend. This is what the chart tells me, and if you liked this analysis, please, support it ! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates. Thank you very much. Have a great weekend!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
TSLA: Low volume/low volatility... What to expect next?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Tesla is doing today. It’s been some time since my last analysis, so, let me give you guys some updates. And the link to my previous analysis is below, as usual. First, Tesla is trapped inside what I like to call a Trap Zone , trading above the support at $ 406, but under the resistance at the 21 ema, and the price could breakout to any direction from here. The support at $ 406 is strong, but Tesla is coming from a clear short-term bear trend. We had a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern on Friday, which was a good entry point, but the 21 ema is stronger than we expected. If Tesla loses the Engulfing’s low, there will be no clear support levels until it hits the $ 379 again. Let’s see the daily chart for more clues: Tesla is inside a congestion , and here you can see clearly why I said that if it loses the blue line, the next stop would be the $ 379 (previous bottom). T he volatility decreased a lot, and the volume is extremely low as well . In this circumstance, it is normal for a stock to do small candlesticks. The 21 ema is flat, meaning we have no clear trend, and the yellow area down there is a possible buy zone , which we can see better in the weekly chart: By looking at this chart, Tesla doesn’t look so bad, right? The long-term trend is clearly bullish, and it seems it is just retesting again the 21 ema in the weekly chart. The yellow area is a triple support level , made by the purple and pink lines, along with the 21 ema. The low volume is acceptable during pullbacks in a bull trend, according to the Dow Theory , and this doesn’t change the fact that the trend is still bullish. But Tesla must do a reaction with good volume to resume the bullish momentum, otherwise, it’ll just keep trading erratically for some time. If you liked this idea, please, support it ! And remember to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses! Have a great day.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
5
NIO: Overwhelming bull trend! How to proceed?Hello traders and investors! Let’s look at how NIO is doing today! It is in a very strong bull trend, and we have two important points now: First, the support at the black line (39.74), which is a quite strong price level, as NIO retested it twice, and it didn’t close under this line at any moment. Second, we have a resistance at the $ 45.28, the previous All Time High , which seems NIO is trying to defeat right now. The 21 ema is flat, so we must wait for more confirmation, and NIO must keep above this green line for some time, because the market could see it as a false breakout , and NIO would retest the black line again. Also, the green line is a Pivot Point , that can be seen in the daily chart: Therefore, it is very important for NIO to keep above it, but the signs are all good here. Yes, a pullback would bring some opportunities, but it is quite hard to see one during such strong momentum. It seems NIO is at the second phase of its trend, the Public Participation phase, according to the Dow Theory. I never recommend shorting a stock like this, and I like to buy when it is near supports, as the R/R is better. So, now it is time just to manage positions, and look at the points mentioned in this analysis carefully. If you liked this idea, please, support it ! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses. Stay safe.
NYSE:NIO
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
18
S&P 500 - Waiting for Directions + Political AnalysisBefore we begin with this analysis... This time it is suited for people who are playing the long game... All ideas that are expressed are of my opinion and interpretation of the political situation. So... While the world waited anxiously to see who will become president - so did equity markets. On the technical side: A Triangle pattern has emerged on a daily chart in the S&P 500 index. This is considered a continuation pattern - meaning that if we go by classical analysis, we should be looking for a breakthrough to the upside. Our target would be the length of AB (just below 4000). We do have a bearish MACD divergence playing out On the political side: Joe Biden is a moderate democrat and this is good for the economy. Implementing a strategy to handle Covid-19 will insure the smooth function of the economy even without a vaccine (widespread testing + mask wearing). Since markets are forward looking this is probably taken into account. Despite talks of the "scary" Green New Deal, such a widespread plan could provide new jobs for people in the old and dated energy sector. (Lets not forget the the SPE has been declining for a couple of years now). Under a moderate administration the employment aspect of this will likely be reviewed heavily. To keep the people happy and voting for you you have to insure their financial safety. No sporadic tweets about tariffs means the certainty increases - Positive for markets. Even if taxes are increased, it will be marginal and only on the filthy rich. Fiscal stimulus to the MAX. On the downside: Markets might be more regulated As long as the Republicans keep control over the Senate, a Democratic administration will have a hard time passing legislation. Right now it looks like this will be the situation, but we will know for sure only in January since we have a runoff in Georgia. This increases uncertainty in the short term horizon. To sum up: I retain a positive outlook in the medium/long term since the new administration will be focused on responding to the Coronavirus and supporting the economy. However, if inflation pics up the story changes completely. Real Vision have covered this extensively - you should check them out on YouTube. If we break lower than point B without taking out point A, The market will officially enter a downtrend on a weekly basis. This is not good. The 2008 crisis started out like this (from a Dow Theory point of view) Feel free to share your opinion and happy trading!
TVC:SPXLong
by nadavhurwitz
AAPL: Next targets and Key Points!Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Apple is doing today! It is resisting in a support zone (green line), which was a previous top, and now it is working as a support according to the Polarity Change . Also, it filled a Gap (blue area), and it may work as a support level as well. Any good reaction near this green line would be a very good sign . On the other hand, if AAPL doesn’t react, then it’ll just resume the bearish momentum to the next support level, the black line around $ 112.85. Now let’s see the daily chart: The green line at $ 117.85 is the most important point right now, because it was a previous top, and it worked as a pivot point yesterday, and this led the stock to fill the gap and to the 21 ema again. If AAPL trades above this green line again, the market will see this movement as a false breakout from a previous pivot point, and the bull trend will resume. The next target would be the All Time High again, especially if it triggers the Pivot Point at $ 125.39 (blue line). Also, the volume is quite low these days, as evidenced by the red arrow, and this confirms our theory that this movement is just a pullback. According to Dow Theory’s 5th Tenet: The Volume Must Confirm the Trend . A pullback with low volume indicates that it is indeed a pullback, a quick movement against the trend that usually gives great opportunities. If you liked this idea, please, support it! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses. Have a great day.
NASDAQ:AAPL
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
14
TSLA: For how long will this sell-off last?Hello traders and investors! Let’s see how Tesla is doing today! Let’s start our study looking at the hourly chart, as usual. Yep, the $ 461 did hold the price, as it was expected, because it is a clear resistance level, and now the bullish momentum is starting to get weaker, as we already discussed yesterday. If you missed my previous analysis, the link to it is below. But this doesn’t mean the trend is going to reverse, at least not yet . This only indicates that TSLA is just going to seek lower supports, and as long as we see this sell-off on the global markets, it’ll be quite hard for Tesla to continue going up, as it follows the movements on NDX. Right now, TSLA is between the previous resistance , along with the 21 ema (which is flat now) and the next support at $ 439. It also left a gap (yellow area), which maybe is a Breakaway Gap. Let’s see the daily chart now: If the gap seen in the hourly chart is indeed a Breakaway Gap, probably Tesla will hit the 21 ema again, and the support at $ 439 may won’t be able to hold the price. On the bright side the momentum is still bullish, and there is no reversal sign on Tesla. We can expect some pullback, as the volume is still pretty low, and if the trend is going to continue, we need more volume. Remember Dow Theory 5th tenet: The Volume Must Confirm the Trend. If you liked this analysis, please, support it! And follow me to keep in touch with my daily updates on Tesla and other stocks! I wish you all a great day!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra
10
BUY INTEL (INTC) on any dip towards the $48 support areaBy looking at the daily chart, we can see the strong bullish rally that took the price from the March 23rd lows of around $44 to the June highs at $64, for an outstanding 45% increase in just couple of months. However, the stock didn’t stay there for long as a combination of a high profit taking interest and some further selling pressure took the price down again at the end of July to the $47-48 strong horizontal support zone. Since then, we have seen a volatile and choppy sideways price action between $48-52 levels. The stock is currently sitting at the $54 mark after an attempt to make an upward break out of the above-mentioned range. However, we see multiple different and also strong resistances that are currently threatening the current bullish move. We can find the 100 DMA lying at the $54 mark and the strong horizontal resistance at $56. Today’s price action on the daily chart shows a bearish rejection candlestick, which in turn confirms the strength of the above-mentioned resistances and indicates that there might be further selling pressure ahead. This up move was anticipated as the stock built a meaningful support base around the $48 mark throughout the last couple months. However, we believe that the stock market in the US currently holds a lot of intrinsic risks - COVID-19, the upcoming presidential elections, the economic recovery etc. - which would probably mean that we could be in for a continued sideways and choppy price action in the coming months. At any rate, we our analysis shows that the uneven capital allocation across the different market sectors will continue to support the tech sector as well as the stocks in it. The large institutional investors will start looking for places to reinvest the tremendous profits that they have generated from the likes of ZOOM, TESLA, NETFLIX, Shopify etc. throughout the last 3-6 months, which will lead them to stocks like INTC! We are bullish on the INTC’s stock and believe that any profit-taking corrections would give us a great opportunity to buy the stock at a good discount. This, in turn would give us a chance to maximize our profits to the upside, once the stock resumes its uptrend movement. Furthermore, some of the technical indicators that we are monitoring closely (50 DMA, 100 DMA, Bollinger Bands, RSI etc.) are currently showing exhaustion of the recent up move and are signaling that a potential return-move to the $48-52 range might occur very soon. This will be the right time to jump on the bullish Intel train, that will take you up to the $60 mark in the coming weeks and months. Our long-term target levels are $61 and $66 respectively. Sincerely, DowExperts
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:INTCLong
by DowExperts
6