#DOWJONES STILL BEARISH??? WATCH OUT!HELLO TRADERS,
HERE'S OUR VIEW OF DOW, QUITE THE VOLATILITY AND ALSO UNCERTAINTY WITH MOVES THIS WEEK.
WE WOULD CONSIDER BUYS ABOVE 27950 FOR THIS ONE
PRICE TESTING SUPPORT ZONE 27400-600 AS LONG AS IT HOLDS AND REMAINS WITHIN THE PRICE
CHANNEL FORMATION OUR VIEWS ARE TO THE UPSIDE.
THE TRADING REGIME. OANDA:US30USD
Dowtheory
TSLA: Exit strategies for Tesla [updated]!Hello traders and investors! How are you today? Let’s study the most recent movements on Tesla.
As I’ve been telling you guys, there’s absolutely no reason to worry here . The trend is bullish and there’s still nothing indicating that it will change.
It is curious to notice that our studies on the volume was right, and Tesla was accumulating during the past few days. A sideways movement with low volume is a characteristic of an accumulation, according to Dow Theory 5th Tenet: “The Volume Must Confirm the Trend”.
Now, Tesla did a breakout from this previous ATH with volume increasing suddenly , so, the momentum continues strong as ever.
As long Tesla continues doing ascending tops and bottoms in the hourly chart, the trend will continue very bullish in the daily chart as well. Speaking of daily chart:
The daily chart is still very bullish, and the volume was quite high today as well.
Now, exit strategies: If I were in Tesla right now, I would just set my exit point under the purple line , which is the previous resistance/top. If Tesla closes under it, just book your profits.
It also almost coincides with our trailing stop technique at the previous candlestick low, meaning you can book you profits tomorrow, if Tesla loses the $ 2,142.50. So, the region at $ 2,127 - $ 2,142.50 is very important for Tesla, and we already discussed about it yesterday. Now we must see if Tesla will keep the price above this level.
If it loses again this line and closes under it, then we will see a sharper pullback. But again, these are just “ifs”, and so far, there’s nothing confirming a pullback. So, no need to panic, ok? Everything here is going according to technical analysis.
And of course, another good exit strategy is to wait for a bearish pivot in the hourly chart. No pivot? No need to book profits! But I believe the $ 2,127 is more important right now , as it was a previous ATH, and now should work as support.
These are nice strategies to use, and I hope this analysis helped. In this case, support this idea, and follow me for more analyses! I do daily analyses, and I’m sure you’ll find something interesting around.
Recent public trades (links below):
XP: +30%
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Congratulations to all of you, my dear subs, who believed in my trading methodology, and challenged the world by being a bull! We deserve to celebrate!
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Remember to follow me , I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
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SPX: New ATH! Crazy? No, just bull trend.Hello traders and investors! Let’s what SPX is doing today! We are at the ATH again (what a surprise), and what can we do next?
The hourly chart is in an insane bull trend, and there’s no sign that things are going to change. Pullbacks to the 21 ema are acceptable and normal, and if I were on SPX right now, I would only book my profits if I see a bearish pivot triggered here. As long there’re no descending tops and bottoms, the trend will continue, and pullbacks are just opportunity to buy.
But, if you ask me, I would prefer to buy at a pullback in the daily chart:
Especially with this gap there. Would be an exhaustion gap or runaway gap? We will have our answer tomorrow, but right now, the question is in the air. If this is an exhaustion gap , we will see some correction ahead, which would be good.
SPX could drop to the purple trendline, or even to the black line, which is the pre-coronavirus ATH, and the trend would still be bullish.
Of course, it is all a big “if”, and since we don’t see any bearish sign around, let’s just stick to Dow Theory 6th tenet : “ Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Occurs ”. No clear reversal? Bull trend.
If this idea helped you, please, support it! And I invite you to follow me for more analyses like this one. I'm here every day, to share a few thoughts with you.
Recent public trades (links below):
XP: +30%
AAPL: +10%
LB: +45%
UKOIL: +62%
Congratulations to all of you, my dear subs, who believed in my trading methodology, and challenged the world by being a bull! We deserve to celebrate!
BECOME A MEMBER!
Remember to follow me , I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
- Here, you will see clean charts;
- Trades with clear risk management;
- The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology;
- Chart patterns with statistics. *
* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
TSLA: The difference between Pullback and Reversal.Hello traders and investors! Tesla did some very good and technical movements recently! Let’s see how it is behaving now, and how to proceed.
The hourly chart is showing us that Tesla is passing through a pullback , and it is now trading around the 21 ema, which is a natural support for the price, at least in the short-term.
If you are aiming for the long run, there’s no reason to sell in panic your stocks, as pullbacks are expected and healthy movements. In fact, pullbacks are opportunities to buy, or to buy more/again.
It is different from a reversal sign, as the volume is decreasing during the correction. This is one of the main characteristics that differentiate a pullback from a reversal.
According to Dow Theory 5th tenet, " The Volume Must Confirm the Trend ", and when we see a movement against the major trend, which has low volume, most likely it is just a pullback, because the volume isn't confirming the trend.
But the high volatility may bring some erratic movements in the short-term, but nothing that changes the bull trend. We would need much more signs to see a reversal on Tesla.
Right now, we just filled the Exhaustion gap in the hourly chart, and as it is usual, every time Tesla does an Exhaustion gap, it gets filled in a few days, and we see some sideways movement next. Let’s see if this pattern will repeat again!
Now, let’s see the daily chart:
If you are following my exit strategies for Tesla, you would’ve booked at least half of your profits yesterday, because yesterday’s candlestick closed under the previous candlestick low. This is trailing stop, and an intelligent way to manage your positions.
Also, see how the volume always decreases during the accumulations, and rises after the explosion. Right now, an accumulation would be good and expected.
In fact, Tesla could hit the purple trendline and the trend would still be very bullish for the stock. But since the trend is too strong, we can’t rely too much on this scenario. I believe that Tesla could hit the 21 ema, or even the redline (previous top) before the next explosion (of course, if the next explosion will happen).
My recommendation here is to not panic, ok? There’s nothing indicating a reversal, and some volatility is expected now. A pullback would just be opportunity to buy Tesla, not to sell your stocks to someone who’s waiting to buy at the pullback.
And if you liked this idea, please, support it! And I invite you to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
Recent public trades (links below):
XP: +30%
AAPL: +10%
LB: +45%
UKOIL: +62%
Congratulations to all of you, my dear subs, who believed in my trading methodology, and challenged the world by being a bull! We deserve to celebrate!
BECOME A MEMBER!
Remember to follow me , I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
- Here, you will see clean charts;
- Trades with clear risk management;
- The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology;
- Chart patterns with statistics. *
* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
AMZN: What's next?Hello traders and investors! As a request from @katgold, we will study AMZN today! And surprisingly, the situation is quite simple.
We have a clear resistance at the ATH, which is the black line. But we have an upwards trendline supporting the price as well, which makes something like an Ascending Triangle chart pattern.
Normally, Ascending Triangles are bullish patterns, especially in a bullish trend. Also, the volume decreased a bit in the last days, which is an indicator of a simple correction. And now the stock is going up, the volume is confirming the trend, accordingly to the Dow Theory 5th tenet.
If I had to do something here, I would buy, especially if it gets closer to the purple trendline. If I were already in a trade, the stop-loss would be in the hourly chart:
Since we are close to the ATH, I prefer to set a trailing stop in the previous supports/resistances zones, like this red line around 3244. If it closes under it, just book your profits. Of course, you may get out of the trade if AMZN loses its trendline in the daily chart, but I think that would requires some guts.
The only thing that bugs me on AMZN is that the weekly chart is too stretched, and you can’t complain if you see a pullback to its 21 ema:
But again, the trend is bullish, so, any pullback is just opportunity to buy. I see no clear targets for Amazon, but I would keep my eye open if it hits the ATH again. And I would just follow the strategy I mentioned above to keep myself in the trade if the trend continues. Nobody knows where Amazon will stop!
This is my view for Amazon, and if it helped you, remember to support this idea! And you are invited to follow me to keep in touch with my daily analyses!
Recent public trades (links below):
XP: +30%
AAPL: +10%
LB: +45%
UKOIL: +62%
Congratulations to all of you, my dear subs, who believed in my trading methodology, and challenged the world by being a bull! We deserve to celebrate!
BECOME A MEMBER!
Remember to follow me , I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
- Here, you will see clean charts;
- Trades with clear risk management;
- The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology;
- Chart patterns with statistics. *
* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
SPX: Complete weekly study.Hello traders and investors! Since it is Friday, let’s do a complete study on SPX, by doing a nice Multi Time Frame Analysis (MTFA). Therefore, I invite you to follow me if you are new around here. Every day, after the market closes, I’ll share a few thoughts here, and I’m sure you’ll find something you like!
The black line in the hourly chart is the ATH. Yes, we are VERY close to it, which is amazing! But we have a top lower than the previous top (see the red line), and this might indicate to us that the bull trend will get weaker.
Of course, there’s no confirmation yet , but this would be the first sign of a pullback (if there will be one). Right now, SPX is resisting at its support at its purple line (previous bottom), and only if it loses it, we will see some pullback.
Again, pullback is different than bear trend ! Pullbacks are healthy and natural movements, and since we are in a bull trend, they offer us just opportunities to buy at a better price.
Let’s see the daily chart for a better perspective:
The trend is extremely bullish from here too. We filled the blue gap on the left, and we are going up almost without rest. Now that we are close to the ATH, maybe we will see a pullback, and the volume decreasing might be a sign for us (red arrow).
And this is normal, ok? According to the Dow Theory 5th tenet: The Volume Must Confirm the Trend . A pullback with low volume is a good indicator that the trend is just taking a rest before the next movement.
Also, the 21 ema is pointing up, and it would be a natural support for the price if a pullback occurs, as for the pink line at 3280. If you ask me, even a pullback to the blue line at 3196 would be ok, but the 3280 is a more reasonable target , especially if you look at the weekly chart:
Since we are way too far from the 21 ema, and the previous top around the purple line would be a natural support for the price, it is not crazy to think about it as an important support zone.
Of course, we are thinking about a possibility of a pullback, and these are the targets for this scenario. The trend is bullish, and the odds are that the ATH will be defeated in the mid-term.
But since nothing can go up forever without a rest, we can work with this scenario. And of course, support this idea if you liked it (which is probably the case, otherwise, why would you still be here?).
Recent public trades (links below):
XP: +30%
AAPL: +10%
LB: +45%
UKOIL: +62%
Congratulations to all of you, my dear subs, who believed in my trading methodology, and challenged the world by being a bull! We deserve to celebrate!
BECOME A MEMBER!
Remember to follow me , I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
- Here, you will see clean charts;
- Trades with clear risk management;
- The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology;
- Chart patterns with statistics. *
* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
BTC: market structure shows us the next likely path Recent price action of BTC has been disconcertingly stable. This has allowed alts to run, so I'm not complaining. But the question every trader is trying to answer is: which way next? What happens after all this consolidation - a final shakeout sub 8k before the inevitable rise, or a slow grind up that no-one believes until they're forced to capitulate and panic-buy?
You could draw a thousand triangles over Bitcoin's price action, but looking at the last couple of months, I see a triangle forming, with an inconclusive ending (drawn in blue). It broke more up than down, but still basically sideways.
What caught my eye is a change in the market structure. You can see it in the Williams Trailing Stops indicator, where we broke the yellow short stop line, but, unlike every previous break, we didn't immediately go and break the opposing trail (the orange stop line).
In other words, we made a High, followed by a Higher Low. If price crosses the horizontal blue line, we will have made a Higher High. This signals an old-fashioned change in market structure, and gives us more reason to be bullish than bearish.
Other Reasons To Be Cheerful are the daily exponential moving averages. I've added just three of them (21, 55, 89) to make the point. The 89 has held as support, the 21 stayed over the 55, and price is now the right side of them all. A few days of closes above the 21D EMA would have it start to curl up, "bouncing" off the 55, which would be a very bullish sign.
Indicators used: TradingView Exponential Moving Average, Williams Fractal Trailing Stops
FedEx May Get a 10% Move HigherBasing above multiple levels of short and long-term support. Consolidating in a tight box. Target outlined.
A : An opportunity to get 143% Profit A (Agilent Technologies) is a good company with a healthy balance sheet.
If you believe in Dow theory, you'll probably invest in this stock. The price action shows 31 & 23 months strong support levels.
Here is a full plan to invest in "A".
I am going to invest my $XXXXX.XX.
I'll buy
30% of X amount @ $82
40% of X amount @ $61
15% of X amount @ between $96 to $100.
Rest of X amount @ $43.(If market will go down badly)
Most Important Exit price:
IMO Exit price will be $147 & $200.
Enjoy your trade!
NVDA scalping idea NVDA have been in uptrend channel lasting 70 day's, you can use very basic I idea buy support and sell on the resistance.
Hint: since NVDA in uptrend do not short it or buy PUT option
"trend is your friend "
do not forget the stop lose
Tesla Inc.: A strong BUY on any short-term declinesThe technical chart of the stock shows a remarkably volatile price action in the last 10 trading weeks with huge appreciations and even steeper declines. Tesla’s stock has always been considered as a rather speculative play for growth oriented investors, thus people who are familiar with the stock are no strangers to volatility. However, the moves that we have observed recently have really set some records for the stock.
After the company announced its 2nd consecutive earnings beat back on January 29th with its Q4 2019 earnings report and also gave an upbeat future guidance for 2020, the stock skyrocketed from $600 to $967 in two trading sessions. Soon after that astronomical 61% gain the stock started retracing and dropped to the $690-750 levels at the end of February, and looked quite comfortable there. However, the stock was then dragged lower with the rest of the market in March as a result of the global pandemic COVID-19 outbreak. The stock broke the initial horizontal support lying at $686, the secondary support at $542 and then proceeded its decline through the $455 tertiary support level to only stop at the 200-day moving average at the $350-360 zone. The company’s market capitalization lost 63% of its value in 4 weeks.
We are long-term buyers of Tesla’s stock as a result of the great fundamental positioning that the company has, as we believe that it is poised to benefit from the accelerated demand for the company’s products in the coming years. Additionally, the fact that the company has finally managed to become profitable and is now consistently delivering strong financial results is another great indication for the bright future ahead for the stock. However, following our cross-sector, multi-layered confirmation correlation model we have concluded that Tesla Inc. (TSLA) will give our followers a better entry point for them to open their long-term buy positions in the stock, in the next few weeks.
Thus, we would be interested in buying the stock on any pullback towards the $686 support level and will look to further add to our exposure to the stock in case the price revisits the next support zone around the $542. Our mid-term targets will be placed at the $890 and $995 marks respectively, with our extended long-term take profit levels positioned at the $1150 and $1220 per share.
For more trading ideas and analyses you can follow us everywhere!
Sincerely,
DowExperts
DTX - downtrend to levels below 650DTX is tracing the early stages of primary wave 3 down that should push pri es to levels below 650. If price crosses up 872 this analysis should be reviewed. FOLLOW SKYLINEPRO TO GET UPDATES.
We warned about the BEAR TRAP (again!)In my last analysis, I warned about the movement SPX was doing, which was very similar to the last bear trap I also warned here. I’ll put the links to my previous analyses bellow, and I invite you to follow me to keep in touch with our trades and analyses.
It was a perfect déjà vu. Again, I saw a lot of people calling it a short trade, but we knew we should be careful here, and what I saw was exactly the same thing as the previous time . And I’ll repeat what Charles Dow said about a century ago: “Trends Persist Until a Clear Reversal Occurs”.
Let’s take a look at the hourly chart:
Two days ago, when SPX did that bearish candle in the daily chart the price was just doing a pullback in the hourly chart. That’s why is so important to look at different timeframes . But what’s incredible is that the same thing happened before, on Apr 28, and I warned about it too. Again, all the links bellow.
But, what now? The real challenge here is to surpass the pink line in the daily chart, because that would trigger a pivot. Also look at the weekly chart:
If we close above the 61.8% fib retracement it will be perfect. Maybe a V pattern in the weekly chart? That’s too optimistic in my opinion but yes, it's possible.
Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
- Here, you will see clean charts;
- Trades with clear risk management;
- The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology;
- Chart patterns with statistics. *
* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
BTC at U$ 55k? Is it possible?What the chart can tell us about the future of BTC?
There’re a lot of theories surrounding the crypto, and most of them are positively promising, and these theories are gaining strength now, specially with the halving coming this month. For instance, we have models that can be used to determinate the Bitcoin’s value, like the Stock-to-Flow model, which I find interesting and it makes sense, but what I’ll do here today is analyze the chart.
Let’s look the weekly chart for a good perspective. Now, BTC is trading inside a descending channel for months, which is typical of a bear market, and here I’ll quote again what Charles Dow, the technical analysis’s father, said about a century ago: “Trends persist until a clear reversal occurs”.
And that’s bad right? I mean, that “clear reversal” didn’t occurred yet. Yes, that’s true, but there’s a light at the end of the tunnel here. Look more carefully at the volume.
During the last bullish movement (evidenced by the purple rectangle) the volume was low, even lower when compared to the whole year (evidenced by the red rectangle). That means that the bulls were not strong enough to change the trend.
Now, we witnessed another good bullish reaction over the past weeks again, but this time there’s a difference. Look how the volume increased! Even the 21 moving average that is in the volume is going up now. Charles Dow also said: “Volume must confirm the trend”. And that could make the whole difference for BTC now.
And if a bull market starts here, I firmly believe BTC will have the strength to breakout the U$ 14k and will test the U$ 20k again. At least that’s what the chart tells us.
So, there’s a lot in stake here. With the halving coming and the price at such delicate moment, we are living one of the most decisive moments on the history of cryptos.
Remember to follow me, I’m a trader who uses the classic technical analysis (barely any indicator, just the candles and the volume). Like this idea if it helped.
Thank you very much.
* LIKE this idea and FOLLOW me, because:
- Here, you will see clean charts;
- Trades with clear risk management;
- The best of Dow Theory, Price Action and Candlestick psychology;
- Chart patterns with statistics. *
* My name is Nathan, I'm a trader and portfolio manager and I'm here to LEARN. Leave your COMMENT and FOLLOW me to keep in touch. *
ALGO/BTC 8R longIn the current climate, trading alts is risky, but then when isn't it risky? For those that are risk-on..
ALGO looks interesting to me:
Bounced off long-term support
Has made a couple of higher highs and higher lows (Williams Trailing Stops)
8/21D EMA bull cross (Exponential Moving Averages)
Solid green daily trend for the last 3 weeks (Price Action Trend | Simple)
I'm thinking even if it goes where I want, it might range for a little between the nearest support and resistance zones, or at least come back to retest the 21D EMA.
So my entry bid is at 0.00002735.
Stop is under recent lows at 0.00002493. Targets are up to your style, but logical places would be under resistance zones: 0.00003786 (set stop in profit), 0.00004853 (for 8.5R), 0.005616 (and so on)
I'll pull it on signs of general market weakness.
Look at that weekly chart though - ALGO has great potential if alts do finally run.
GBPJPY SHORT/SELLPrimary trend is downtrend and the price now make a secondary uptrend, according to EMA 22 the price is at dynamic resistance and will bounce to continue bearish,after that i found pennant pattern that will make price to continue bearish, for target price I'm using Fibonacci retracement at 1.618 golden ratio
Dow theory basicsHow to identify trends and trend changes.
In downtrends - trendlines must connect the descending peaks - left to right
In uptrends - trendlines must connect rising thoroughs - left to right
"Trend is your friend unless it ends"- T. DeMark:)
GOOD LUCK!
