combining upward and downward gann fan toolUsing only one tool with 4 clicks (4 anchor points) so much can be understood. Open you mind to more than simple trend lines and chart patterns and take your TA to a whole new level.
Dowtheory
downward gann fan exampleNot only can you use a gann fan in the upward position to help identify targets above, but it can be used in a downward position to help identify areas of resistance and to help predict runs out of a downtrend. The vast majority of the time when a stock passes through the last fan angle there is a significant run. Additionally, the vast majority of the time, when price action is out of the shadow of the downward gann fan the downward trend is over and the equity is in the recovery and accumulation phase. I have made many many profitable trades using this technique
Gann fan - highly under utilisedThe purpose of my post is not to teach anyone this method nor prove its success - I don't have the time. I am simply throwing out a bone to 99% of people on here whose thinking is limited to individual trend lines and patterns. These have their place however they are not the full story.
Anchor points are almost always the low before a run and the top of the bull trap following a run.
Direction was change to bullishIn Dow theory is simple method to see price direction
waiting to buy from demand zone for short term TP
LTC/USD - Coinbase Daily Chart - not longing just yet LTC is a tricky one to predict. Consider that LTC has been leading the way earlier this year and not BTC. Although BTC gets the news, LTC was usually the first to move (pump) with BTC then eth/alts. LTC topped out June 22 '19 with BTC following June 26 '19.
While BTC is playing more of a traditional DOW theory thus far (and I use traditional in the loose sense here in the Crypto world) :
swinging up uptrend topped out --selling-------------------------------------> stabilizing
(Accumulation , Public Participation, Distribution , <-we are here -> Public Participation, Accumulation)
1 2 3 4 5
LTC seems to have taken a quicker ride up and down. That is why its hard to say if we are still in the early stages or latter stage of public selling (#3->4) . I would say short but if we are in the latter stages of selling... wouldn't it be worth it to wait till it we start accumulating again and go long?
I have two green lines that represent the uptrend LTC was on. The Black circles represent the head and shoulders pattern that was drawn and confirmed as they broke both uptrends. Not only that, we established a clear downtrend (red line) that has been tested twice and failed. Moving Average 20/50/200 are all above price along with the Ichi Cloud. Only thing I see as support are the support lines I drew around the 51.20 which held up for now.
Now normally (and most likely still do) I would say not to touch this because I usually want to see the price above a MA to feel safe however there is a clear channel that is happening (purple line). The falling wedge has at least 3 points where it bounced. Not only that but the RSI is in the undersold region. Perhaps for a scalp it would work but for a long hold I am skeptical.
Falling Wedge w/ undersold RSI and stabilizing MACD
vs
Price under all the Ichimoku indicators and below 20/55/200 MA as well as Bear market sentiment.
As you can tell I am not hype about longing LTC. Consider me interested if the following happens :
We fall to $39-42 region
We break my Solid Red line and retest it (must pass the retest obviously)
Until then, just let everyone else fight it out and sit back with CASH in your account.
Dow Theory - DJIA and DJTA Clash to Signal Bearish Future*Yellow = 200 EMA | Blue = 100 EMA
This video goes over the divergence between the DJ:DJI and DJ:DJT . Currently, the DJIA is trending upwards, setting new highs, and lows. However, contrary to this movement, the DJTA is moving downwards heading towards a trendline shown in the video, but could very easily break through that trendline.
Why do I care?
In 1929, several months before the flash crash and the official start of the Great Depression, divergence indicated by Dow Theory helped forecast bearish price action. This is outlined in the Intelligent Investor . Part of Dow Theory states that if either the DJIA or DJTA starts moving in a direction in contradiction of the other, the index whose movement has not yet transitioned will begin to do so. In this case, that means that the DJIA should start to trend further downward.
On the weekly charts of both indices, the RSI shows obvious bearish divergence moving in confluence with the hypothesis presented by Dow Theory.
This could mean short term breaks of trendlines and longer-term moves to lower supports around 21 000 - 22 000 price range for the DJIA or lower.
Internationally, we've seen global growth in regard to Europe (eg. Germany's poor GDP report), China's poor manufacturing, the inverted yield curve, and greater bearish sentiment as a product of Trump and his trade war. These factors along with this analysis indicate looming bearish movement, but also the potential to BUY more stocks as they become cheaper and become bargains.
Good Luck Traders!
Dow TheoryCharles H. Dow (with Edward Jones and Charles Bergstresser) founded the Dow Jones & Company Inc. and developped the Dow Jones Industrial Average (the big new thing back then were big industries, now it is big tech giants Apple Amazon Google Facebook... Next is going to be renewables and biotech nah just kidding next is a huge recession and WW3 and the end of modern civilisation too late to save the world).
Dow created a theory that he descrobed in editorials in the Wall Street Journal (which he dounded):
1. The market prices everything. Whether the participants know it or not. Even future events are priced in in the form of risk.
2. There are 3 kinds of market trends. Primary trends 1 year or more (bull or bear markets of different magnitude, consolidation). Secondary trends are pullbacks in a bull market and rallies (sharp ones) in a bear market. Last kind of trend < 3 weeks is basically noise. (Personal remark: for currencies & commodities this is different imo. For the stock market this is valid and has been for centuries)
3. Primary trends have three phases. Accumulation, public participation, excess phase in a bull market. In a bear market distribution, public participation, and panic (or despair) are the 3 phases. Check Elliot Wave theory too.
4. Indices must confirm each other. Dow used the DJIA and DJTA (transportation) indices. Now look at well the 3 USA ones and the other continents too...
5. Volume must confirm the trend. Low volume indicates a weakness in the trend. It should go up as price is going up.
6. The trend stays the primary trend until there is a CLEAR reversal.
(Tell that to FOMO moonboys)
Let's look at exemples of market cycles.
2012-2015:
2017-2021 on the linear chart:
All time, several ways to see it:
2018-2019:
Best to just look at examples:
Looking at volume... It's really not clear. The rule needs to be removed or changed.
With Bitcoin in the excess phase we clearly saw an explosion, and then decline. And that was the top.
Each market works differently but these cycles are seen everywhere.
I wanted to look at the new one, Bitcoin. Let's look at a few other ones.
Sugar ==>
Dow Jones ==>
Gold ==>
Copper ==>
EuroDollar ==>
Tesla ==>
Movie pass (LOL) ==>
Rektcoin ==>
Bitcoin: Dow's bottoming pattern and possible parabolic riseAs you all know Bitcoin dropped ~84% from 20k all the way down to 3k. In the past few months Bitcoin has been painting a bottoming pattern: the failure swing bottom from Dow's theory. I see that absolutely no one talks about this pattern, instead I just see people who talk about an ABC correction that will bring us to new lows, like 2k or even 1k, which in my opinion is not likely.
Also, I want you to notice a possible parabolic trend that is forming right now in Bitcoin . It is simply an acceleration of the upward trend, which doesn't happen since 2017's bull run. It is still at the beginning, so we need to keep an eye on the first two trendlines that formed.
And at last, but not the least, the BBSX index is growing steadily for almost 4 months, which points out a change in sentiment from bearish to bullish and the exhaustion of bears.
Will S&P drop to 2235?Hi Tradingview!
Welcome to my first published idea! I have used different methods of TA to get to a 2235 target of the S&P 500:
* Head and Shoulders pattern with a skewed neckline around current levels, target 2235.
* Dow theory: 16% drop leads to 24% drop 80% of the time. Which is 2235.
* 5th upward pointing wedge in a row. The previous 4 broke to the downside. I do not see this one breaking all the way to 2235, but it does point to short term downside.
* A downward pitchfork channel could be established; the Dec 24th drop nicely respected the -1 line. We are now at the +1 line which could prove resistance.
* When looking historically, 2235 was significant as support on Dec 30th 2016.
I am a trading amateur using Tradingview to learn. I see a lot of people get flamed and burned for posting an idea; I do not mind if you do, that seems the way of the internet nowadays. But if you disagree I'd like to learn why to improve my TA, cause this is just an idea and definitely not financial advice.
Have a great weekend!
Xvg/Btc Verge Buy Opportunity Again Hello Traders,
Verge coin already successully break symmetrical triangle chart pattern and create new high so if we use here Dow Theory so we have already HH and new HL so possibilities here start uptrend and you can book good profit for short and mid term.
Symmetrical Triangle is a chart pattern,
Characterized by converging top and bottoms. The bottom of the triangle is an up sloping support trend line and the top is down sloping resistance trend line.
It may be both reversal or continuation chart pattern.
An uptrend can simply be defined as a series of higher-highs in price,
Coupled with higher-lows. In other words, the overall price direction is higher,
Even though the price will experience corrections along the way. A downtrend is a series of lower-high and lower-low price swings.
See here our latest analysis.
BTC/USD:
SIA/BTC:
XVG/BTC:
BTC/USD:
Wish you all the best guys.
Wait to buy at the "Accumulation Phase" GBPJPYApplying Dow Theory to GBPJPY. Dow Theory - www.investopedia.com
US 30 ?Fake Breakout: Volume not ConfirmingToday's 400pt lift in Dow was unconfirmed by volume which declined as price rose. VOLUME DIVERGENCE violates basic Dow Theory:
The session volume in each day's trading reveals nearly all the session volume was traded before the thin air lift at the end of day.
A move against trend must be confirmed by increasing volume to be a true trend change, else it is merely a countertrend movement.
Expect this rally to fail and return to consolidate around price rotation area. Failure will likely lead to capitulation & panic-selling break down.
I could be wrong, but I'm buying a single put Wednesday to test my theory!
This is not investment advice, trade at your own risk and good luck!
Expecting correction on Indexes.Looking for ABC correction. Ideally S&P makes new highs and Dow fails to make new highs. (Dow Theory)
DOLLAR INDEX - Daily reversal: Five waves up + MACD divergence.He who rides the pony must someday fall.
USDJPY long-term trend/wave analysisHi, folks.
USDJPY shows nice upward movement.
it's 1st time price climbs back above 1 std of 50 MA on weekly chart since March 2017.
I appreciate this trend will drive price further up.
1st notable resistance level is 118.7 - 1 std of 50 MA on monthly chart.
STD 5 is rising on weekly chart.
daily chart:
Long-term targets are based on fibo extensions of wave (A): 116.8, 124.3, 136.43.
Short-term targets are based on recent price action (approximate waves of smaller degree): 114.48, 117, 121.2.
don't miss this opportunity!
trade according to your system using quality risk management and reliable money management approach. good luck!
First Signs of Spring for Hibernating Bitcoin?After a strong performance over the weekend, Bitcoin is showing signs of life.
(1) Price action formed consecutive higher lows (L1-L2) and higher highs (H1-H2). This is a valid bullish reversal pattern.
(2) Price has broken out of a falling wedge denoted by blue lines and consolidated above breakout point.
(3) Bullish divergence on the RSI denoted by red arrows. RSI made higher high which is not reflected in the price action. This suggests that price momentum is transitioning from bearish to bullish.
Are these the first signs of spring for a hibernating Bitcoin? At least for now these are positive short term indications and it appears less likely we will break the support level around $6000 as some feared. However, we are yet to see a significant impulsive upside move supported by high volume which would give reason to believe with greater conviction that the Bitcoin winter is truly coming to an end.
At least in the short term a Bitcoin price showing some strength will provide conducive conditions for alt coins to rally. This should provide more attractive trading opportunities than Bitcoin itself.
Levels to watch on BTC.This is the levels i'm watching on BTC for Dow theory analysis. I definitely want to be there when this trend turns around. Ill keep you posted when some crucial levels breaks, with the implications there of.
Currently 6k is the level on everyone's mind, Personally ill be ecstatic if breaks, as it would signify the next phase in the bear trend, progress.
Part 2: Principles of the Dow-TheoryOne of the most influential instruments for analysing the financial markets is the Dow theory from Charles Dow. This theory has six principles:
1. everything is processed in the indices or market averages;
2. the market has three trends;
3. each primary trend consists of three phases;
4. the market averages must confirm each other;
5. the volume must confirm the trend;
6. a trend remains intact until there are definitive signals that it is reversed.
@1: everything is processed in the indices or market averages
All the information is processed within the prices. The historical price is the only objective information what the technical analyst has.
@2: the market has three trends;
Primary trend: longer than 1+ year
Secondary trend: correction within the primary trend
Mino trend: Shorter than three weeks
upward trend : This are series of higher higs;
downward trend : Serie lower lows;
@3. each primary trend consists of three phases;
1. the first phase/accumulation phase : big investors buying in, the market is not well known yet
2. second phase (all prices starting to rise): trend-folowwing investors steps in
3. third phase/distribution phase (when there is more positif news, the not initiated investor steps in): In this phase nobody wants to sell because the prices are rising very hard, only the big investor takes their profit in this phase.
@4. the market averages must confirm each other;
The market averages has to confirm each other. I'm looking at the total market movement.. When u follow the market u see that the average of the market is moving the same direction.. This confirms the trend direction..
@5. the volume must confirm the trend;
If the primary trend goes up, the volume should increase, downward corrections will take place with less volume. A decrease in the primary trend is usually accompanied by more volum, while we should see less volume with the upward corrections.
@6. a trend remains intact until there are definitive signals that it is reversed.
The next figures shows the end of the trend.
When to Sell??
"failure swing" : The new top B is not capable of getting higer than the previous top A. After that the price is getting down , when it reaches S this is an signal for selling!
Nonfailure swing : C becomes higher tan previous top A. But after that it goes down under B. S1 is the first position where to sell youre share. If you missed S1 then take S2 for stepping out.
Now whe know when we have to sell, but we know when to buy before we can sell.. This figures shows our first buying target... This is how we can search our buying target!!
When to buyl??
"Failure swing bottom" : This image shows how you can recognize an uprising trend. The price sets for the first time a higher low (C is higer than A), we set our buying target on B. After the price goes above B the uprising trend will start.
"Nonfailure swing bottom" : Here we see the price is getting lower (C is lower than A), but after that the price goes above the stopover (B)..
In this case u can see this as the first signal for a bullish market, place buy order at B1.. If you want confirmation (this could lead for missing B1) of an bullish market, then wait for E.. When E is higher tan A, this is an confirmation of bullish market.. Then place your Buy orders...
This are all signals what u can use for finding the trend withing the market. It is hard to say when the market is turned. There are a lot of different opninios about the trend and charts by using technical analysis... The dow theory does not give you any certainty or guaranty.. This is just a tool to get a signal for the market.. It is up to u what to do with it.
