Where are the Video NFTs? A Brief History of Decentralized VideoWhile the hype in Web3 right now tend to focus on NFTs of image files, most Web2 platforms are still focused on video and livestreaming content since that's where the demand for content is at the moment. Why aren't people talking more about minting NFTs of videos in a decentralized way? The challenges, possible solution, and a brief history of attempts that came before.
Dtube
LPT vs THETA - The Future of Video, Storage, and LivestreamingBack in 2020, YouTube's #1 Creator, PewDiePie (Felix Kjellberg), announced that he would start streaming on DLive -- one of the first "working" crypto-based livestreaming service at the time. "Working" is in quotes since the partnership didn't last very long (YouTube eventually signed an exclusive rights deal with Kjellberg) and whether or not the platform is actually decentralized and censorship resistant is somewhat debatable.
DLive later moved its platform onto TRON (under Justin Sun) -- then was later acquired by BitTorrent and now uses BTT as its currency layer. There's a whole story behind that whole series of transactions too (including the rise and fall of DTube), but we'll stay focused on the crypto livestream/video market for now.
Right now the two big contenders in the crypto livestream/video markets are Livepeer (LPT) and Theta (THETA). Both projects claim to be the future of video -- which is decentralized, ubiquitous, and always available at any time. Livepeer is an open-source platform where anyone can build anything on top -- whereas Theta (founded by former YouTube co-founder, Steven Chen) is more of an enterprise-driven project with the backing of well-known, major companies out there. The differences in style and how they talk about themselves as a project is pretty stark, to say the least.
Right now the biggest bottleneck in the NFT market is storage and bandwidth capacity -- it's no secret that we live in a world where most people come to expect video as their primary source of content, but due to technical limitations (video, especially livestreaming, requires an exponentially higher amount of bandwidth/space) a lot of NFT projects out there avoided the issue by simply scaling down to simple images of apes, punks, and rocks. Most people working in content know, however, that video is where things need to eventually go, but in order for that to happen, there needs to be major upgrades done on the backend in order to accommodate the massive amounts of bandwidth that video systems require.
Web3 is only just getting started, in other words.
Filecoin (FILE) and Theta have a similar pattern since they both tend to target enterprise-level customers as their main focus, where as STORJ has a similar pattern to LPT and ETH since they're more open-sourced and decentralized. The patterns and where the money is coming from seem to be very clear, here.
Which will win out in the end? We don't know, yet. It's doubtful that the viewer really cares about where their content is coming from or how it's hosted -- the platform that entertains them the most is probably where they will go. In a way, this is just the eternal contest between small vs big production values -- maybe there may be room for both in the future. Which platform will create the most interesting content?
STEEM/BTC (STEEM token) Cycles, Tigers & Bear$ Oh My!STEEM/BTC (STEEM token) 720 minute/12 hour semi log scale, candlestick wicks removed for wave clarity.
05/17/18, 9:00 PM EST, by Michael Mansfield.
Hi trader friends! Looks like we have more sell offs with this token, if these cycles are correct.
Steem is a token from the blockchain enabled social media site, SteemIt.com, which, is kind of like a cross between Facebook & Medium, add YouTube (via Dtube) and you have a winner. Check out our page there, but not right now.
ELLIOTT WAVES & PATTERNS:
The most likely pattern appears to be larger ABC or ABCDE contracting wedge pattern, that should be heading lower now, in line with the cycles shown at the top of the chart.
I’ve used the shorter ABC Elliott Wave corrective pattern for now. However, if STEEM breaks any of the black horizontal breakout lines up or down, or the GANN 1:1 diagonal resistance line up, or the upper or lower blue wedge diagonal trend-lines, then a new trend trust in the direction of the breakout/breakdown is very likely underway.
If a breakout looks imminent, I'll try to do a new post for that potential event or update this post with a new forecast.
THE DOWN KEY:
The dashed horizontal blue line just below yesterday’s low must be breached for this down wave pattern to continue as forecasted, else, it could be full "Steem" ahead.
CYCLES:
Blue cycle = general trend momentum thus far.
Green cycle aligned with the 3 major prior lows.
Red cycle tends to catch intermediate highs.
There is definitely longer and smaller cycles than shown, but the data history is too limited to determine the larger cycles at this time.
Currently, these three cycles are heading down. Thus, the path of less resistance and the highest probability is lower prices until mid August (10-13th ), when the green cycle is due to bottom, or late September (26th exact date), around the time the longer-term blue cycle is due to trough.
SHORT ACTION: Look for short opportunities now, or wait for buy opportunities around the expected cycle low dates in August or September, mention above.
TRADER TIPS:
Cycles are about potential energy shifts, not always the direction of a perfect sine-wave. Sometimes cycles invert, called a cycle inversion or flip flop, whereby an originally expected cycle top turns out to be a cycle low. This occurs more with short-term cycles, than longer-term ones. Sometimes cycles are amazingly accurate, but don't use them alone. They yet are another confirmation and planning tool to tilt the odds in a trader’s favor.
Case in point: Years ago when I was a commodity broker, (can’t tell you when, but before I became a CTA), gold and silver had an almost perfect 7 week cycle, low to low. They both went up 4 weeks, then down 3 weeks. This went on for around 9 months. I was able to exit virtually all of my many clients out of the metals market at a 2-3 day double/triple top on the days surrounding the 4 week high. This particular "time & price area" occured after 5 Waves up in Elliott Wave terms, it was also around the time for a seasonal top for gold, and gold hit a Gann or Andrews line and held.
After selling out everyone that would listen to me, which was 90%+ of my clients, guess what happened. Gold and silver then crashed 30%! How long did the crash take? You guessed it, three weeks! The 3 week cycle low came right on time! After that, the cycles changed and were less consistent, so I moved on to other markets.
THREE MORE CYCLE TIPS:
Gold has a very consistent cycle of 8 to 8.6 years, top to top.
Commodities tend to have more consistent cycle highs than lows.
Many digital assets (cryptos) trade more like commodities and currencies, than stocks, but have been far more volatility. Still, tops often seem more consistent than lows for many tokens, but not with all tokens.
DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Cheers!
Michael Mansfield CIO
STEEM/BTC LONG NOWWHY TO GO LONG ON STEEM
1. We could have a nice bull flag forming on steem right now, if it does bust out the top this should provide enough volume to push us through the longterm supp/resist line. Currently we see higher highs and lower lows within the flag
2. unlike most of the market, steem is holding well against the complete market crash. I believe this is due to Steem already having its major correction. We are still about 90% down from ATH, reaching a low of about 100% before recent pumps
3. Steem has use. either on steemit, or dtube (youtube-like platform). In addition to use, users can also "lock" steem in a wallet for use on these platforms, leaving a smaller supply and sell pressure on dips. This can ultimately lead to gains back towards the ATH