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ICARUS PATTERN - WINGS GONEIcarus flew too close to the sun and lost his wings out of selfishness and curiosity. The price action for Bitcoin was insane today, although I didn’t expect it to last. We approached the top of the triangle pattern and rejected $42K as expected…..For Now I remain bearish as the market is due for a massive correction. Stock markets look synthetically pumped up there’s no reason in the world we have such a booming market besides screwing over other countries with sanctions and then inflation which nobody seems to care about until next week when we see a TON of profit taking and dumping. Purely speculative. This growth cannot be sustained, the market makers are literally just waiting for retail dumb investors to buy into Bitcoin and then they will send it back to $20K maybe even $12K some models are predicting the retrace to macro support line. We need a lower low to get above and beyond. Once again, we do not have the common goal aligned to get BTC to $100K because the rich are going to keep us in the market cycle. Currently shorting Bitcoin to $20.5K from here. Good Luck.
Short
by Fabreezio
1
BTC and All markets are going to dump hard, be carefulthis ideas shows a potential dump, i believe that this dump is happening in near future, if it does not play out, then we are safe, if it plays out then you have to be ready for it, keep strict stop loss to all trades, collect profits as they happen and do not get greedy, moving averages and bollinger bands analysis on 3 days chart and weekly chart both anticipate the worst case scenario (red), daily chart analysis is mostly playing the best case scenario ( green ) or the yellow scenario note: constitutional investors are starting to accumulate huge short positions, im playing for the worst case scenario which is 8-18 k Fibonacci extention shows 9128 while fibonacci retracement shows 10617 note: drawn scenarios are seperate from shown dates, it was expanded for the drawing to be clear stay safe, happy grinding
by flying_whale
2
SPY COULD FORM A MACRO WEDGE - INTEREST RATESGet your tin foil hats ready for this one folks. It's a long shot, but just throwing this perspective out there to see how it lands in a few weeks. SPY loves to form wedges, especially after the breakout of other patterns. In this case, SPY was forming quite the strong channel since September, until it broke out in January (see chart below) Now that it has broken out, and volatility is at its highest, one potential outcome is SPY / SPX forming a wedge to calm the storm. Here is where it gets interesting - charts also love symmetry. The price action on one side of a pattern often times matches the price action on the opposite side as well (time is a factor that affects how this looks on the chart, either squeezing or elongating the trends) Before SPY dumped in January, it had a stair stepping, wedge-like pattern on it's way up - which took 200 days to reach ATH from $415 (a key level). SEE BELOW Now here is where the tinfoil hat comes on. So far, SPY has mimicked the double bottom formation first seen on the left side. SEE BELOW Notice both form a 'W' shape, with the left side having less volatility, and therefore having more time to form price action (30 days) The right side having more volatility, formed a similar pattern in 10 days. 1/3 of the time This would make sense if we also look at the volume, which is on average 2.4x higher than last September / October. Following this same logic, we should reach 415 in approximately 1/3 the time it took for SPY to reach ATH from 415 (200 days mentioned previously.) That means it would take ROUGHLY 66 days to reach 415 from ATH -- March 11 -- The Friday before the first released rate hike and when the FED will release their interest rate plans. This would put the March 15 - 16 FOMC meeting right at the vertex of this wedge. The MACD also confirms this in a way. If SPY continues its current MACD trend on the Monthly, it should approach baseline in March, flipping red (Take a look at SPY chart, and what happens when the monthly MACD flips red without a catalyst like the FED meeting.) It also means we could see a more volatile spike to around 460 in the very short term (first week of February or so) and then a trend down from there. What are some problems with this perspective? It's based entirely off of connecting dots that may not even be there. Also, with all of the news and volatility happening right now, SPY could do something completely un-organized and un-predictable, but it doesn't hurt to try. This post was written largely for fun, and I'll keep the analysis in the back of my mind. However, I do not plan on basing any of my strategies or trades on the idea alone. Let's see how poorly this ages ;) - Thanks for reading!
AMEX:SPYShort
by SJ_CAP
3
BITCOIN FRACTAL. Big Move incoming this Monday. 4hr.As we can see there is a fractal pattern forming on the 4hr timeframe. Monday is always a false move and we may see a return to the mean reversal in the middle week. As we can see there was a big pump and dump last week, followed by are small to medium time frame is happening since friday, we may see a big sweep playout this time , dump and pump. If this plays out, many traders get reked. others will be millionaires. Trade safe. Sending love to all.
Short
by AntonMapzPinoy
There Are Two Possibilities in the large time frame!Despite how bullish bitcoin is these days as fundamental says, of course, fundamental of the structure of the blockchain and any other technologies, not the WAR News,markets largest crypto would crash as bad as you can see on the chart, yes the blue scenario I mean, the blue scenario would be triggered if you ask me, of course, we’ll wait and see in the next months. The priority for us in positions is SHORT! Not a financial Advice, and like always, try to double manage on your capital, and don't forget the sentence, Whatever can happen on a chart, will happen!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by rfmarandi
1
Something that isn't talked aboutAccording to every cycle since inception, Bitcoin has repeated some not-so-talked-about patterns. First: every cycle has had a direct hit on the 0.5 log fib as illustrated here What does this mean? Nothing to the ordinary man. But to me, it means every cycle has a distinct half-way point. How do you find that half-way point without knowing the top is in? Some people think that the nonlog 1.618 is the halfway point. To their credit, it certainly is pretty close to the 0.5 fib; however, you can see in 2017 it was a touch high compared to the 0.5 fib. & That margin is getting worse every cycle. It was -6% lower in 2011, it was 1.5% higher in 2013, and 5% higher in 2017. With a continuation of this pattern, we would expect it to be more than 5% higher than the 0.5 fib. Maybe 8-12% higher? That'd be a $26.4k to $27.5k BTC Another way I've determined this is through a predictive 1.5 fib. It was 6% high in 2011, 4.5% high in 2013, and 0.6% low in 2017 or 0.14% difference from the actual 0.5 fib. The predictive 1.5 fib is determined by making a log based retracement from the previous high to low, making a new log retracement from that same low to the .786 of that previously marked retracement, and marking the 1.5 as illustrated here: & Just for those curious about how I'm getting these numbers for 2011 when there wasn't a previous cycle to draw retracements from. I'll illustrate here It's not foolproof, but it's pretty darn good. There is a problem with the idea as the 1.0 fib of my last retracement points to roughly 154k, which is way shy of my 264k top proposal. However, there is wiggle-room, and it could feasibly get that 1.0 fib up to just over 200k. So, I'd argue it's not completely broken. With that knowledge, I can apply things that happened in 2013, 2017, and 2021 so far to 2011 & see if things are repeating. The gold 1.272 to 1.618 range isn't quite there, but the blue 1.618, the predictive 1.5, and the 2.272 (top) is there just like every other cycle so far. If that's not enough to convince you. If you take the previous cycle high, draw a percentage increase to the 0.5 of the next cycle, do that for every cycle, you find a diminishing percentage at a steady rate of 79% of the previous rate. For example: 2011: the percent increase from the hypothetical previous top to the next 0.5 fib was 69.25% 2013 was 56.72% 2017 was 44.87% These are dropping at a steady rate. If you multiply the previous percentage of say 69.25% by 0.79, you get close to 2013's 0.5 fib increase of 56.72% (calculated out to 54%). So that rate would equate to a 34% increase from the 2017 top which is roughly 27k. Like clockwork... So with 2021 & 2017 alike, we touched down on the 1.618 (blue fib), found a higher high, then came down. 2017 came down 4.22% further, and another 4.22% further from where we struck the 1.618 would be right at 27.5k or my predictive 1.5 fib... The margin of error is close and the reversal in the summer of 2021 had me convinced, but now things are appearing a bit clearer. Like my info & would like to keep up? Find my twitter handle @ Ungovernable_io See related ideas for more fun stuff.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by Ungovernable
2