US30Y yield back to New high (Bearish bond view)On the back of strong prices data which were not really consistent with the temporary relief in inflation but rather calling for a sustained trend.
US30Y is likely to revisit new high, breaking our
Duration
CCJ : BASE 0 DURATION / POSITION TRADECameco (NYSE:CCJ) released a strong print ahead of market open, and followed up with a strong call, as the market leader points towards a narrowing supply/demand gap and increased willingness for utilities to contract at higher prices:
CATALYSTS :
McArthur River - CEO Gitzel indicated that there's no change to the Company's strategy of pre-selling future production; there's a home for the additional supply from McArthur's restart, and they will not be growing production to build inventory or sell into an oversupplied spot market.
Contracting - the company added 40m lbs to the contract book in the first month of 2022, as the fundamental backdrop for demand improved; additionally, the pandemic and depletion in Kazakhstan has brought security of supply challenges for customers; "contracting begets contracting" and Cameco expects continued opportunities to lock in favorable, long-term contracts throughout 2022.
Sprott - The emergence of a "financial market" buyer in late 2021, namely Sprott (OTCPK:SRUUF) soaked up a lot of spot-market supply and pushed up spot prices; however, spot buying also removed customer complacency and pushed longer-term contract prices higher.
Kazakhstan - both trade policy concerns and instability in Kazakhstan have focused buyers on the origin of supply and helped Cameco take market share.
Having struggled with an oversupplied market since Fukushima, it appears the uranium market is finally coming around for low-cost, long-lived producers in secure jurisdictions, like Cameco. With favorable policy likely to come out of the European Taxonomy proposals, the sector (NYSEARCA:URA) appears well positioned for a strong 2022.
SOURCE:
CCJ after the call -- after a decade, the market looks to be turning, shares up ~15%, Nathan Allen, Seeking Alpha, Feb. 09, 2022
seekingalpha.com
Uranium: Potential Trade Of The Decade, Gain Exposure With SRUUF, URNM, Live Hard Investing, Seeking Alpha, Feb. 10, 2022
seekingalpha.com
Bitcoin Steps Into 3-Year UptrendToday we want to share an interesting monthly chart of Bitcoin, in which we highlighted the durations of bull and bear market cycles. As you can see bear markets last for about a year, while bull markets last for almost 3 years, specifically 35 months, which was the case from 2015-2018, then from 2019 – 2022 and now it can last from 2023 till the end of 2025.
One of the important indications for bitcoin recovery can of-course be weak USD which is trading down since 2022 and it appears it may fall much lower when FED is done with the current hawkish cycle.
TLT adding someAdding some TLT today, think the longend of the curve is pretty much done, I'd still be short on durations less than 5Y
Pure Value & Low Beta vs. Pure Growth & High Beta Pure Value & Low Vol relative to Pure Growth & High Beta. The rotation away from duration and beta has been very strong the past 2 months. As QT begins and liquidity dries up even more, I’d continue to favor shorter duration & lower beta segments of the market.
Bitcoin Big Picture - Trends, Channels, Extensions Oh My!2017 run-up over 34 weeks followed by decline in channel over 51 weeks.
2019 run-up over 29 weeks followed by decline in channel over 57 weeks.
Bigger patern 2017 run-up along with decline in descending channel over 137 weeks (which includes bottom to top of channel upward move formed by the 2019 run-up) then breakout above descending channel in July 2020. Leads to HUGE run-up in 2020 and 2021 up to top of long term multi-year ascending trend channel. Top of this run-up is also formed by 1.618 extension of initial 2020 impulse move upward followed by bounce off of 0.618 retracement of this move.
Huge decline off of bounce of top of multi-year upward trend channel with retracement down to support around $30k. This support area is "supported" by a number of ideas including mid-trend line in multi-year upward trend channel, 0.382 Fibonacci retracement on 2020/2021 upward move, and 2.618 upward extension of 2019 run-up move. Should this support area hold price may move upward within multi-year trend channel and possibly breakout of possible descending channel as part of bull-flag formed by 2020/2021 impulse move. In this case price may hit just under $100k on 1.618 extension of 2020/2021 impulse move.
Or, if 50+ week decline from recent 2020/2021 impulse move occurs that would map to similarly extended declindes from 2017 and 2019 upward impulse moves and price may go down to 20k before bounding upward again in any lasting and significant manner. If price breaks below the 30k support area it could descend to the late 2017 highs around 20k before bouncing upward again. Although, a lot of negative sentiment, government intervention or institutional deparature from the crypto space would have to occur to fuel such a move.
With the move upward to a newly stacked upper multi-year trend channel price may just remain in this upward zone until it breaks higher.
If all of this sounds like gobbledy gook then here's some sensible words of caution. Beware of unicorns flying around on your charts! They may appear enticing and harmless but they are difficult to ride! :)
ZM : BASE 0 DURATION / POSITION TRADEZoom's long-term investment thesis is alive. It remains the best-of-breed for work-from-home communication solutions. Zoom has become a verb, very much like 'Skype,' 'Google,' and 'DocuSign.' This achievement alone demonstrates Zoom possesses an incredible combination of moats in branding and network effects. As it grows, it adds more value, and users will find it very hard to leave. Unsurprisingly, Zoom is now a $100B company. But it isn't going to stop.
Competitive advantage/moat
Moats are commonly categorized into four types: Network effects, low costs, high switching cost, and intangible assets.
Zoom possesses the most powerful ones, network effects, and brand name. Zoom is reliable, easy to use, and easily deployable. Zoom's net promoter score ('NPS') is incredibly high +70. Competitors do not even compare. None has the virality effect in 2020, quite like Zoom.
As Zoom expands features, use cases, and integrates deeper into other platforms, we believe Zoom would also acquire the high switching cost moat. While this moat isn't seen as necessary as the first two, it would help Zoom to retain customers and maintain a large user base to monetize.
Revenue was $777M, up 367% YoY from $167M, an acceleration of 17% from $646M in Q2'21. Q3'21 revenue was 24% higher than its entire revenue in FY20.
International revenue was 30% and grew 629% vs. 300% domestically.
Gross margin was 68.2%, a significant drop from 83% YoY and 72.3% QoQ due to a considerable increase in free users' usage, particularly in K-12 education intuitions. During the quarter, Zoom recorded 3.5 trillion meeting minutes, up 75% QoQ. Once Covid-related usage diminishes, we expect gross margin to improve towards Zoom's long-term target.
Operating margin was 37.4%, up from 12.8% in Q3 last year, and a decrease from Q2'21's margin of 41.7%. The figure is still extremely high and demonstrates exceptional operating leverage.
Free cash flow was £388M, up from $55M in Q3 last year. That's a 50% free cash flow margin (!). Management intends to maintain a high R&D budget of 10% of sales over the long-term. Thus, Zoom's high free cash flow generation allows Zoom to continue fuelling growth.
The outlook is excellent in our view. The FY21 revenue of 2.58B is a five-fold increase from FY20. Q4'21 revenue will be almost 40% higher than the entire revenue in FY20.
Remember that Zoom is a best-of-breed SaaS company that can touch everyone (almost)'s lives. In effect, Zoom is listening, watching, and collecting the most granule data from people's lives, at work and home. The data Zoom collects provides optionality long into the future. For the short to medium term, Zoom Phone, better monetization, K-12 free users' conversion, and expansion into telehealth, commerce, workflow, fitness, and internationally should provide a surprise boost to Zoom's growth.
SOURCE : Zoom: Will Surprise Your Portfolio In 2021, Multifaceted Growth Ahead, DTF CAPITAL, 06 Jan 2021, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
ADAUUSD : COIL / POSITION TRADECardano’s latest protocol update will be a game-changer and could play a key role in triggering the ascent for the ADA price.
Alonzo promises major makeover
IOHK, the development team behind Cardano, announced the next protocol level update for Cardano, known as “Alonzo.” The roadmap reveals that this upgrade will arrive in the summer of this year.
The recent announcement reads,
Alonzo will add support for smart contracts – digital agreements – to Cardano about four months from now. It will open up opportunities for businesses and developers, by allowing the creation of smart contracts and decentralized applications (DApps) for decentralized finance (DeFi).
The latest announcement comes after Cardano received two critical updates, the multi-asset support functionality and the Plutus platform. These updates will serve as a foundation on which the Alonzo update will be built.
This development will be implemented using IOHK’s hard fork combinator technology and will make Cardano a versatile platform for building smart contracts that fuel business needs.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
ADA has been consolidating for the past 6 weeks. A conviction break-out and close above its 2018 high could potentially signal the beginning of the next rally.
Additional Reference : youtu.be
VECHAIN : VETBUSD COIL / SWING TRADEUSE CASES:
For Companies Interested in Carbon Reduction
VeChain's Digital Carbon Ecosystem is a ground-breaking blockchain and IoT powered carbon reduction platform which utilizes economic incentives to encourage both individual and enterprises to participate in the reduction of carbon emissions. As consumers engage in low-carbon behaviors (say, by purchasing low-carbon products), they earn a carbon reduction credit which can be redeemed for benefits from other ecosystem partners such as retailers or even financial services providers.
For Manufacturers of High-value Retail Products and FMCG
VeChain uses blockchain and Smart Tag(NFC/RFID/QR Code) to implement the traceability of retail products' entire lifecycle management. End consumers can check and verify a product's information via the VeChain Pro mobile app (or client-integrated SDK). The retail solution can also contribute to effective channel management, after-sales service, and convenient financial services such as insurance for high value goods.
For Manufacturers and Importers of Liquefied Natural Gas
The blockchain-based LNG solution can be used to keep track of the core data generated during the transportation, storage, and online-transaction of LNG. The data collected will be stored on the VeChainThor Blockchain, thus making it possible for data to be shared by the suppliers and users. The solution handles the quality assurance process including classification standards, weighing practices, and transportation process for different types of natural gas. All information will be uploaded to the VeChainThor Blockchain to establish credible industry standards per government mandates. From there, all aspects related to the data will be tracked, shared, and traded through the VeChainThor Blockchain, which will further regulate and improve the LNG market.
TRADE PLAN:
BUY ABOVE : 0.2215
STOP LOSS : 0.1840
TARGET PRICE : 0.4910
SOURCE : www.vechain.com
VIDEO REVIEW : Vechain: Why VET is SMASHING IT & What Next?!, COIN BUREAU
youtu.be
bearish trend duration "BYBIT:BTCUSDT"BYBIT:BTCUSDT
Regarding the duration of the last 12 separated bullish/bearish trends on BTC USDT 1D (from May 2020 till now) :
mean : 38 days
median : 21 days
max : 54 days
min : 4 days (only once end of nov 2020)
--> we can doubt that the actual bearish trend (started 4 days ago) will stop today!!
bearish trend duration at least assessed to more than 8 days at least, we will see! BYBIT:BTCUSDT
PLTR : COIL / POSITION TRADEPalantir: Parallels With Microsoft, Potential Network Effects Underappreciated
The company has reached $1bn in revenue with low customer numbers and immature business operations.
Software standardization, an intense focus on shortening deployments, and a behind-the-scenes SaaS delivery platform called Apollo, will facilitate significant scaling opportunities.
12-month target price of $47.
PLTR have a great opportunity ahead of them to develop ‘flywheel’ network effects to build atop their software that is already several years ahead of the competition. In regards to big data analytics there is no other company that comes close – they have, in effect, created their own market. The reality, however, is that they will become much more than a ‘big data’ vendor – their platforms have the capability to become central operating systems for organizations. The software is infrastructure-agnostic; it can be laid on top of any group of networks and systems and enhance the performance of everything it connects with. The high-entry competitive advantages give them a great chance of grabbing a huge chunk of the management guided $119bn of TAM. We suspect the TAM is quite a bit higher, however. Our research has brought us to really consider that PLTR could be a future tech giant.
SOURCE : Convequity, 11 Jan 2021, SeekingAlpha
seekingalpha.com
