JNUG channel and cloud analysisJNUG channels that I see (disclaimer: they could be all wrong LOL). But I do think they'll help to provide a guide. For example, if we can't stay inside of the larger sky blue channel in March, I think it's obvious that JNUG will go lower, like $5's or even $4's.
As far as the Ichimoku Cloud, we fell out of the cloud in Feb. But use the cloud to get a feel for how strong the price movement is. If we break back in soon (I think we REALLY need to), look for strong green candles inside of it to carry us up through the cloud for a breakout above it.
DUST
JNUG ready to rock? JNUG missed an opportunity for a bullish Exponential Moving Average cross up over the past couple weeks. Felt horrible for anyone (...uh...guilty) who bought in the late Jan/early Feb thinking that insane movement was THE start of another wild bull run like 2016. I've improved my average to $9.40 by buying in the $6's. Using the Fibonacci Extension Tool on the Dec 2016 swing low to the swing high, I see a very precise touch on the 0.236 Fib line on this deep retracement, and expect this to be as bad as it gets. It could touch it again (and again and again) as this crazy market (and especially miners, and especially leveraged ETF's) love to play head games with the little guy/girl to shake them out when the circumstances appear the most dire. Stay strong, be smart. Use those simple, powerful indicators to make your decisions. But don't be stubborn either. I like the indicators I've used here, and in a minute I'll post a different chart with another simple one you can use.
Jnug to Gold Feb 24thSO I bet many people were wondering WTF is up with the price of JNUG if gold broke out the last two days. Well the answer is that the cycle for miners is coming to an end and there is usually a little pullback during the bullish times and a huge drop during the bearish times. *(look at miners from 11/14 to 12/08 and see what the price action did compared to spot gold which was tanking hard during that period. Miners does not always follow gold perfectly. But when it does correspond, we can get big moves like we had over the last two months) Since we are currently finishing a bullish impulse then we should continue to drop into next week. How much is the question. I put an extension on the 100DMA and 50 DMA to show where they should cross. I am hoping that price can drop to that location where they cross but at least think we could close that last gap just above it. The light green area is where I plan on selling my JDST and buying JNUG. There is always a pop in Jnug when the cycle starts. Just look at price when the cycle start on 1/27 and then again on 12/20. Evan during bearish times like on 11/14 we had a little pop. So I hoping for JNUG to fall to $8.75 range with an expected pop to $11.30. If price does not break through again then it appears it could chop sideways for a while.
The black triangles below are approximate zones where I am predicting without much certainty, that spot gold DCL should occur. I am not totally sold that we completed a DCL for spot gold yet and it may start to drop down to a decent 50% retracement or 50DMA.
I also have changed my spot gold opinion as of 2 days ago since gold has now finally broken through the zone I talked about. I will post the gold chart after this. So I am short miners for at least into next week.
Gold Hourly Waves - Pre FOMCAll is on chart. Watching "b" complete at least 50% but no more than 75% of "a". Then, if "c" is 100% of "a", I'm watching 1242 thru 1245 (depending on "b").
Note, I have the start of Minute i as my invalidation and will long. Conversely, 1217 is confirmation to the short.
Trade what you see, this is just what I am watching. Good luck.
Jnug to Gold - Im not long yetI'll keep this short and sweet. Until spot gold break through that large green area that I put on this Spot gold chart, then it is still possible that we are in wave 4 and not in the start of the 2017 bull run. However, I am not so sure how low it could go being so so late in the cycle. I put up the possibility of a head and shoulders pattern that could develop. Also keep in mind that the Yen has also broken out of it downtrending channel last week. and it ;looks like it pushed up into a minor wave 1. So this gold push is consistant with a minor wave 2 for the Yen. I will post this chart and Jnug.
If gold breaks above that green area then I will change my outlook to very bullish.
A Perfect Bubble on the 1hrAfter last week's auction which sparked US yields to rise it was obvious that a GDP miss in Japan would fuel US yields to higher intra-day highs. $US10Y and $USDJPY are closer correlated than $DXY and $USDPY because Japan is the largest holder of US Treasuries. Keeping all this in mind tomorrow Yellen will likely pivot back to hawk triggering gold to dip back to 1210-1208 by Wed. and the miners should sell-off strongly.
Gold Bearish Bat Possibility or bounce off TL for more bear??All is on chart. If the trend line (dashed) is broken and tested, this pattern can help indicate where it might retrace. Gold can, however, bounce off of the trendline again though. Harmonics don't show where it will go, just ares of interest for retrace after other points are complete. For instance, this last retrace could push to 1.618 from it's push towards B and hit then bounce off of 1245 (blue).
Gold Short -- Hopefully a Nice ChannelA nice channel took us from the low at 1123 to 1219. Let's see if a nice channel shows us the way for part of the retrace.
.236 was my confirmation of a deeper retracement.
.382 (and .5) will be watched closely
.618 could be a point to either exit or watch for upward retracement, if not at .382 or .5
If you missed the long in it's channel, this could be a nice chance to grab some profits.
Now that it is at the top end of the channel, I'll hold longer and scalp less (ha, maybe).
Targets are clear.
Jnug to Gold Rate Hike ?? Feb 1stSo typically the miners cycle would have ended today....and maybe it did. But like I said in a earlier post, I think we may stretch this cycle out until Feb 1st. If we do have a rate hike then I am expecting a similar movement down for that day and then a sharp rise the next few days. It also appears that we may be making a zig zag pattern which started zigging today. So while I think we could go up more, I just don't think it will be a big move up. Maybe up to the 10 DMA or at least touch the $8.74 resistance line before closing at the 10DMA. In other words, we should trade sideways for the most part, on Monday and Tuesday. Then IF a rate hike does happen, it would seem highly likely that we drop to touch the 50 DMA which as you can see would also be right at about the trend line at approx. $7. And then yes, a bounce to retest the recent highs.
At that point, everyone and I mean everyone is going to say (just like they have been saying) that we are going to break out and go to the moon. If that is the case then we should see a break out above that big blue down trending resistance line. Yes it can happen, but no I do not think it will yet. My chart speaks for itself for what I think will happen. I still feel that the 14.5 month cycle that I wrote about a couple weeks ago is in play. And while that is almost never perfectly 14.5 months, for the purpose of this chart, 14.5 months ends at the same time that spot gold is suppose to end its daily cycle (end of Feb/ beginning of March). A coincidence that really should not be ignored.
I would like to bring up a scenario that I think could play out. Rate hike on the 1st. A swift 3 - 4 days market sell off (see my SP500 chart) which would coincide with Jnug making a strong pop. Then, the broader market would start its 5th a final wave higher until the May rate hike which would draw money out of gold and miners. And analysts will be writing about how gold is weak because the market is strong so no one needs a safe haven..ect, ect. And lets not forget about the YEN. I will post my Yen chart to show you the move it started a few days ago. the Yen appears to also be starting its 5th wave. And currently the Yen is much more inversely correlated to gold than the dollar is to gold.