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DWT

USOIL ShortThe price of oil is currently squeezed into the apex of a bearish rising wedge pattern and is beginning the implied breakdown. Negative divergences can be seen on the 1H, 2H, 3H and 4H chart whilst the PPO signal line is still negative on the 1D and 1W charts which shows the underlying bias is bearish. There are clear support levels below which I have found on the daily charts stretching back to the times mentioned. I see oil making a break right past the March 2005 level, however if it doesn't, it can act as support for a potential back test of the wedge's support line. Even if oil reclaims that level and puts in a new recent high, it would simply extend the divergences further and indicate a bigger drop. Given the market's outlook right now and how it has been correlated strongly with the price of oil, I see this as further evidence that we will see a significant breakdown in oil to at least the March 2009 support level. For this trade, we will be using DWT (-3x USOIL).
TVC:USOILShort
by BigMouse777
USO, not buying the bear marketOver the past month especially, crude has fallen into a bear market. Most of this bearish reasoning is coming from the U.S. EIA reports which is showing a large amount of undocumented crude which has resulted in a very swollen crude storage inventory, mostly all in PADD 3 (Gulf Coast.) There is strong reasoning to believe that this undocumented crude is actually plant condensate, which is not exactly an equivalent of crude oil yet being counted as such by weekly data. If we deduct this probable phony glut of non-crude oil which is more likely some type of condensate, would we still be in a bear market? Possibly, a little bit at least, but that would have much to do with lower refinery run rates and Trump's trade wars. Venezuelan imports to U.S. are down to zero. Canadian imports can only ramp up nominally by railroad. Saudi Arabia exports to U.S. have been extremely low, in the 400,000 barrels per day region and there isn't much alternative to recovering those lost barrels from elsewhere as heavier barrels have become a scarcity. It is very possible that at the end of the month, EIA 914 monthly data corrects U.S. weekly data production numbers with a downward revision. Texas' Permian basin rig count has fallen significantly, while the North American rig count overall is down big time; completions in the Permian have also not taken off, they have grown, which tells us that it seems unlikely the U.S. could have shot up to over 13,000,000 barrels per day in production. It is more likely in my opinion that we see a decline or flatlining in U.S. production as it appears many U.S. producers are focused on (attempting at least) to generate free cash flow to appease everly demanding shareholders. I think the overall market will be taken by surprise when it comes to realize that condensate has been getting counted as crude and that U.S. production isn't going to be growing as many analysts forecasts; all this is happening at the same time, historically reliable suppliers like Venezuela completely fall into an abyss and OPEC appears as disciplined as ever, while Canadian pipelines are delayed which reduces egress potential to the market in the coming couple years.
AMEX:USOLong
by chriskanaan
USOIL I Think We're Getting Close - Time & Price AnalysisMy best guess is the green highlighted area shouldn't be viewed as a "Bounce" zone. Instead, I think this will be the area where accumulation will take place. It'll take a few weeks and a few failed breakouts, so don't worry about missing the bottom. You'll have a few opportunities. ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ I've been working on "Time" more than "Price" for the last year. I got tired of pussy-footing around in my analysis; "It should bounce around this level, maybe it will maybe it won't." Time is much more elusive than price, but I'll give it a go: ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Price: Between $49.00 and $46.00 a sideways to slightly lower accumulation zone will form in this range. (Typically don't like to give such a wide range ($3) but we just moved $27 in 7 weeks so giving myself some wiggle room) Time: From today (Nov 23rd) until Dec 15th, it's likely oil will be in accumulation as it moves sideways to slightly lower. By December 13th we should see some serious signs of a reversal. The reversal should last at a minimum until Jan 11th. Prior Oil Posts:
TVC:USOIL
by RHTrading
WTI - Yearly Cycle Low - Still to Come?Oil Left translated on the last Daily Cycle but did not take out the previous cycle's low as expected. It also did not close above the 10 week MA after making a swing low last Friday. This leads me to believe we are seeing another Daily Cycle within this extended Intermediate Cycle, which should also left translate, and this time, move to a lower low, taking out the low seen on August 15th. This would then print an Intermediate Cycle Low, and likely a coinciding YCL. If we close the week in the 70's, I would be skeptical of the bearish sentiment then and have to think that the Intermediate Cycle bottom was printed on Aug 15 low; however, at this time, this is not my belief.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by faronf
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