LONG term USOIL outlook (M)oil is currently in a strong uptrend in 2018. Look for oil to peak in the high 70's then make it's gradual fade over the next 4-6 years.
DWT
Crude may drop one more timeTo complete first five wave move down in a larger wave A,
crude still may drop one more time to the green target box
It should get over 64.10 to confirm completion of the downside
Crude oil is setting up for a plungeCrude has either topped in corrective wave ( ii ) up or can make one more high deeper into the red box. And then I expected it to start decline in the wave ( a ) of ( iii )
Water's boiling ... Follow me to make some money + Its FREE!Have made solid trades this week on crude with crude scalps. Momentum in ST favors bears even with favorable api. However, Bovies are not out of the game if 60.10 and 59.95 hold strong. Bearish cypher and drop in play at the moment, but 3 attempts to take out bulls has failed. If history is to be applied here, it looks like line in the sand has been drawn and itll take everything and the kitchen sink to tank oil. Sitting cash in regards to crude and not playing report, didnt want to give up double digits gains this week on a report day. The signs still point to LT bullish crude to $73 +-$2.00. Blue and orange trendlines are critical and not really worried about resistance till $64/$66, primarily $66.
I will be watching crude very closely.
Takeaways:
Bears have tested multiple times in the last few weeks to drive crude past its breaking point and not been successful.
Nearly perfect H&S did not materialize.
Bulls have backs against the wall, but favorable API and more importantly EIA can likely change momentum for a swing or scalp depending on your strategy.
Trade with stops but understand the volatility that crude has shown in last 3-4 sessions recommend 3% at the moment.
Averaging down in this cycle is not advised to fast and t0o large of swings.
Double bottom today confirmed support in low $60's.
Ill be back tomorrow. GLTA!
The Rancher
PS my charts are busy as hell and I apologize, but its how my brain works. If enough follow me I can start posting multiple charts of the same chart to show individual TA opinions and points of interest.
USOIL Continuation pattern or Trend Breakdown?Personally, I'm leaning towards a trend breakdown because of the RSI has lost it's trend and broken below it.
On the other hand, That symmetrical triangle is pretty attractive alternative option to watch.
Cleaner Version of Previous ChartCleaned it up a bit tells the story more clearly.
Also possible beginning of bullish divergence on rsi and buy AH 3/7/18 crude was in oversold territory imho
Long Oil and it might seem crazy but here's whyThe big picture shows continued bullish momentum, despite forming a clear H&S over last few sessions. The lynch pin in this whole situation was the inability to break MY neckline. Although crude does seem to be exhausted I think it had to take the beating today in order to make a run and have a chance at a breakout above 67. I would personally recommend a fairly tight stop in case things unravel in the blink of an eye, which crude can, but I think the bullish momentum will resume. I strongly believe the bears took advantage of the break the bulls needed to catch there breath, but the batteries have been recharged. I have a 2/5 position and will save some powder for a false break (bear trap) and reload with a lower avg share price. Ill make the call of 70-73 over next few quarters. Peak production season and driving season is here upon us. Dynamics are changing and have changed drastically now that USA has taken on a very different role as a supplier. Crude has one more leg up in my opinion, but it is still anyone's game. Best of luck and follow me for updates for trades.
Sidenote: my strategy is simple, focus on a few stocks that show enough price action to warrant the time invested in doing the analysis, and stay on top of them. Usually its only 2-3 stocks/etfs. I don't kill it every trade and like any good trader I make bad calls and lose, but overall I do make money. I welcome contrarian views, as a part of my strategy I try to exhaust every angle to disprove my hypothesis or consensus, when I finally cant I make my move. Sometimes I miss the window and have to sit on the sideline to let the swing play out, but a good trader knows that sometimes sitting cash is the most prudent move.
GLTA
USOIL Trend AnalysisIt would appear that the intermediate term trend is going through an ABC correction.
Supply Zone exists in the $53.50-$57 range
Long Term Price Support exists at $54
50% Fibonacci retracement exists at $54
Measured Move exists at $55
Channel Resistance exists at $62
Long(er) Term Price Resistance exists at $63
Short Term trend bearish
I'll go long when I hear "NEW BEAR MARKET FOR OIL?" on the news
Crude $45 by April/May 2018Revising my $69-70 target down to $65-66.
My Original idea from July 17 - was Crude would reach 69-70 by late Spring early Summer.
Time for oil to cool offAfter an impressive run in oil, it looks like its time to consolidate. i think the mid 56's look like a nice place to put the next bottom in. should be a nice trade with dwt
Intermediate target hit: took profits See previous post (link below). Would not be surprised to see some correction soon.
Massive breakout potentialMassive money making opportunity in oil, inverse H/S looking to potentially breakout... Buy anything over 50.40 w/ next resistance is at upper 50's
I'm day trading/ staying short looking for 49.38 before moving in to a long position.
Update for the week I decided to go back to the basics and pull in the classic Fib into the image.
I see more downside in the near term, but I also see potential for more short squeezes' The market is extremely volatile.
Trade with caution
$USDWTI W,D If daily support broke out, more room for downtrend
what we could expect according to Wly chart (RSI and MA already crossing down 50)
Cautious cos' API today and EIA tomorrow
DWT Long Entry ETF Trading using simple Supply and Demand strategy.
The Downtrend was assumed over when higher highs were made.
Now that we have a pullback , it may be time to enter the market.
[ ALWAYS use stop losses to protect your account at all times.
Shorting USOILExpect it today to break below the trend-line. if it happens, we might see some great downside momentum.
Oil definitely lower at this pointSpent too long flopping around below $50 here as well as broke a volatility contraction pattern to the upside then immediately kicked in the bucket and sank below the funnel level. Short term back near $47
Weak oil.Abnormally larger sell volume in last downturn on the price of oil, followed by significantly lower volume on this rise. Bigger players have been taking their exits, be very cautious with any crude oil longs here..
