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How to Trade Ending Diagonal: EURUSDOne of my favorite EW patterns: Ending Diagonal It usually appears in wave C or 5, we have wave C It consists of five waves and each of them are three waves All looks good as wave 5 is over wave 3 and Ending diagonal might be completed as EWO oscillator already shows Bearish Divergence between wave 3 and 5 This educational post to show trade setup on this pattern The bottom of wave b in wave 5 is a breakdown trigger (blue) as it means wave 5 is over Confirmation is on breakdown of wave 4 (orange) Target is at the start of the Ending Diagonal (green) Bonus track: One could consider sell on 61.8% Fib retracement as we see the first impulse down and now we watch this two-legged pullback.
Education
by aibek
es1! retests 5kes1! appears poised for a larger move down, based on the smaller timeframe count . this leads me to believe that es1! has entered a larger fourth wave. historically, these waves take an average of 2 months to play out and typically result in a 12% decrease from the high before completing. wave 4's often retrace back into the territory of the prior degree's wave 4, and i expect this one to follow suit. pay attention to the green trendline i've drawn on the chart,,, it serves as a solid guide for where i anticipate es1! to find a bottom. dipping below the trendline is acceptable, provided we don't see any weekly candle closes beneath it. even if a weekly candle does close below, a strong recovery the following week, such as a gap-up scenario , could invalidate the breakdown. there’s not much else to add here, as the chart is fairly straightforward. keep an eye on the trendline and monitor weekly closes for confirmation. 💸
CME_MINI:ES1!
by notoriousbids
Dollar Index Alert: Reversal Pattern Emerging – Learn MoreLuckily, I spotted a classic reversal pattern right on the edge of triggering. The combination of three peaks, with the tallest in the middle, has formed a Head & Shoulders chart pattern on the Dollar Index futures daily chart. The right shoulder is almost complete, and the bearish trigger will be activated if the price breaks below the Neckline (the line connecting the valleys of the Head), which sits under 105.30. The target is calculated by subtracting the height of the Head from the Neckline breakdown point, giving us a target around 103.10. The RSI indicator is also on the edge. Watch for a breakdown here as additional confirmation.
ICEUS:DX1!
by aibek
4
EURUSD map: Down to 1.04-1.00 Then Up to 1.16-1.21EURUSD is in the second leg down to complete a complex correction (red down arrows). There are three crucial target points for drop to watch: 1) Valley of red leg 1 at 1.0448 and 50% Fib at 1.0406 2) 61.8% Fib at 1.0200 3) Touch point of the throwback to broken trendline around parity Next is the reversal to upside within the large leg 2 up (blue up arrows). The possible targets depend on the depth of the current drop, the deeper the lower the upside target. From the first point of drop EURUSD could hit 1.21 area. From the lowest valley of parity it could reach 1.16 handle.
by aibek
Dollar could be trapped within huge consolidationMarket corrections are tricky and in this post you can see why. Dollar index weekly chart shows signs of large sideways consolidation (aka flat correction, range) after a strong drop marked with the orange down arrow 1. This consolidation passed halfway as we can see all first moves are completed. The first major yellow counter-move is done; it will be connected with the last yellow upmove through two white and two red counter-moves. Why corrections are tricky? Because they last longer than many think, usually longer than the preceding move. Currently, first legs took the same time as the whole first orange leg down, therefore it will take almost same amount of time furthermore. After completion, the second orange leg down could resume to hit $93 (orange leg 1 = orange leg 2) or even lower to retest the valley of Y2021 at 89.6
TVC:DXY
by aibek
Dollar looks into the skyThere is much noise about dollar losing its king status in the world. The drop in the yellow wave b within a correction could have spurred that speculation. You can see that it was a natural move to retest broken former barrier. It was successfully rejected as the price bounced up quickly. The target for the next move could be around $125 where yellow wave c will be equal to yellow wave a. The next possible target is around $141 where yellow wave c will be equal to 1.618 of yellow wave a. Where do you think DXY would go next? -$125 -$141 -down
TVC:DXYLong
by aibek
5
Trading Idea - #DAXTrading Idea - #DAX Sell/Short after head and shoulders pattern forms! Entry: 15.290 (the neck line) Target: 14.937 (the head height) 1. the initial rally into the pattern is often associated with a strong rise. 2. the first shoulder forms where price peaks before falling back to a support level - the neckline. 3. once the market reaches the neckline, it rallies to make a higher high before pulling back to the neckline. 4. the market then bounces off the neckline again, this time making a lower high than the previous bounce off the neckline. 5. the pattern is only confirmed when the sell-off from the second shoulder breaks below the neckline, after which the target equals the distance between the neckline and the top of the "head".
XETR:DAXShort
by Traderherz-Analytics
2
DOLLAR RETRACE TO 103+ ON FOMC & NFP VOLATILITY ?COT: Dollar has weakened significantly since mid NOV-22 Driven by institutional selling of long contracts since begin Q4-22 Assisted by accumulation of short contracts sinds JAN-23 Outlook for Q1-23 remains sideways to down Next downside level is 99.60 FOMC & NFP: Before another drop below 100 big figure a retrace is likely 103+ will likely be mitigated in FEB 103 = mitigation level = GAP resistance = sell VWAP Begin FEB is pivotal week(s) with FOMC & NFP FOMC and/or NFP volatility will likely facilitate the retrace OUTLOOK: Will be monitoring price behaviour between 103.00 - 103.25 Looking for change of behaviour on the lower timeframe (wicks into mitigation-level) Anticipating a swing lower from 103+ to 100- after mitigation This will offer buy setups in the MAJORS, with a preference for commodity CCY's
ICEUS:DX1!Short
by xtrader1
1