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SPY / ES / SPX - Market Structure & PostureWeekly Engulfing Charts are clearly not a preferred look for the Buy Side and those riding the Bullish Tilt-O-Whirl - Bodies are being flung everywhere. The Dollar is doing its thing, it ran to our PO at 107.65 with a 107.67 print and reversed yet again. it's been a pattern as the EuroDollar continues the ties that bind, Dollar shortages create demand until the Dollar is dethroned. Sell Side has lifted the CBOE P/C to (.82). Please note after the brutal June 17th 4X - we reversed very hard the following Monday. For Roll out the Options Curve - it's muted Frankly. Traders took their Bags, packed up, and headed off to parts unknown. That said... Bulls may have a chance to hold and to have... "may" - as horrific as it looks, Wall Street may surprise with a short Countertrend to shake off the Late chasers. Again it is "may" not will - It is, however, exactly what I would do. There simply isn't enough Capital to transfer in the leveraged deep end of the Pool. It seems there is another attraction elsewhere for now - unaware of any real contests outside of the Lounge, but the lizards are somewhere, for certain. Sentiment everywhere is pure doom, gloom, and kaboom. Understandably so after Teton Jerry and CPI - it's been a brutal month for Buyers. Wrecked and Raked at every turn. ______________________________________________________________________________ Here's O/I for SPY into Month End by Expiry: SPY 9/19 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/21 Exp - Moderate Participation (FOMC) / VIX Roll/Settle Complete 4 PN EST on 9/20) SPY 9/23 Exp - 360 Participation @ ~70K SPY 9/26 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/28 Exp - Very Low Participation SPY 9/30 Exp - Very High Participation @ 390 @ 102K / 385 @ 134K / 370 @ 143K / 350 @ 120K October Monthly Expiry needs those traveling to parts unknown, requiring some time to re-engage. It is important to note the early & largest entry for October was 372 Puts. On to the Chart ______________________________________________________________________________ Charts are simple messy, mixed, and have the appearance of that "double bottom" in trade and quickly... which may be why it doesn't happen. The KEY Line in the Sand is not the Lows, it is the dip in below 3588 - that is a number so please commit it to memory, breaking it.. assure a return to far lower lows, but over time. We completed Day 21 of this downside Crush from Wall Street. The Financial Media has been abuzz about multiple contractions after spending weeks supporting "Pivot Chatter" and, surprise, "Multiple Expansion" - remarkable anyone listens. For "Time" we need a breather... soon. it's important to remember the ES defended the FHWB - all-time highs to lows @ 3849.50 @ 3853. Structurally - it looks bleak. I mean look at it... it's terrible. Longer Term, even worse - but that is for later, for now, it's interesting... and it is quite possible we get a larger counter-trend Squeeze developing this week. A very nasty one... quite possibly. RSI STO supports its development near term. Best to be agile and not be caught offsides, as fear is grinding lower - currently @ 36 as the September Vix settles on - Powell the 21st. Jerry's arrival Wednesday with 75BPS most likely, as 100BPS I was looking for may be split to the November FOMC as it appears to be 75BPS as well. The Ministry of Financial Truth was out early in the week touting100 only to hear JPM quash that with "The Fed isn't going to raise 100BPS, but 75BPS". We will see, I'm non-plussed with Forward Rates trading @ 4.5%. Yields have gone vertical... never a good thing, not ever. Institutions apparently now consider the 1 & 2-year pristine collateral. I had to laugh when Bloomberg touted - "Yes but the 30/90 Day are not inverted~!" Oh, Hooray for this - perhaps it's the fact Yellen curtailed issuance to non-existent and the Market for the very short end of the Curve... is not trading any real liquidity. Something is going to give - but in a most unusual way. Yes, valuations will be corrected further. Of this there is little doubt, it's how it occurs that traders seize. Wall Street enjoys a nice lift ahead of EPS Season... with Powell stuck squarely in the middle. ______________________________________________________________________________
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
14
SPY SPX ES / Traders Flip the ScriptHigher lows are required to provide the Flip into Higher Markets off of the Lows at the 390.85 Level. 394 is backtesting Support 399.50 is the initial Resistance. Powell Speaks at 9:10 AM EST after - 8:30 AM EST to provide both Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans speaks @ Noon, followed by Consumer Credit @ 3 PM EST. "We're committed to maintaining our Policy" Note - the Markets prefer stable to lower Rates, of late... this has not been present. Should Powell provide Happy Color and TNX begins to move lower. Powell's soothing IF there is to be such 399.50 squeeze comes into the Trade. The Counter-Trend can morph into a further Squeeze and Meltup. _______________________________________________________________________ Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard spoke yesterday providing some Flip Syde to the Tape - covering all the bases with a positive Traders uptake. Large Traders took advantage off the recent lows and began bidding SPX for the squeeze while Retail began to follow their thesis of Lower Lows and a retest of the Lows - AAII reached nearly 51%. ________________________________________________________________________ X Sectors in the S&P staged a large relief rally with the exception being XLE for obvious reasons as Crude and Oil Majors were hammered lower. Crude ended the day down 5%+ while the DX was lower on EU Rate Decision front runs. We are one week away from VIX Roll beginning and it appears there is an early retreat for Time to M2/V2 aka October. The VIX Floor remains 20.50 / 28 the pivot for Higher. VVIX in decline creates a gush of the potential onrush of VX Bids - 93.58 is the Pivot. Bills, Notes, and Bonds saw a slight retreat, even TLT saw the 20 Year Yield provide reprieve - coming off the 3.75s for 20 Year Yields (Implied). DX can pull back to 108.50. ________________________________________________________________________ Market Internals during this shortened week, Wednesday was simply more Positive then Tuesday was Negative. NYSE TICKs were sporadic and inconsistent Tuesday and Wednesday firmed the Tick. Buying activity was not purely Sellers on Coverbuys, there was newer organic buying. A positive for the Buyers (Bulls) which may digest ahead of Friday's Expiry or simply explode higher on the cross of 399.50, Bulls do not want to lose 394.00 - and the Trendline will need to provide extreme support. Apple's big event... a sleeper IMHO. New Camera - Wide Angle. Price Points that will reduce their continuing Cult of Buyers. Marginal users are simply moving to Android and away from the Apple Ecosystem. They are discovering a better Value proposition for their needs - Apple's Global Market Share continues to decline markedly. Apple needs to see 160.25 - 156.50 as the Breakup Level. Calls remain in Balance for Friday @ 51.7% ________________________________________________________________________ Let's see how Powell presents this morning, he will drive the week end finish. Good Luck and Trade Safe.
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
3
SPY - Volumes fell off on Decline Many Sellers (Bears) missed the Selloff, and many Buyers (Bulls) failed to take profits at the 199 EMA tap. Frustration abounds and will remain leading to many emotional trades being placed for both sides. Indices traded into the Lows of their ranges and held for 3 days. Buyers need a TOSS to get things going to the upside for 420+. Buyers need to not hear Powell so much as mention QT. This needs to be avoided with Rates the primary focus. Should he deviate into Quantitative Tightening - all bets are off. We see the rounded lows in the 1 Hour Chart and the Couuntertrend channel - now we simply see if the throw over short squeeze (TOSS) holds on GDP. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ After yesterday's -1175 NYSE Tick @ 12:15 PM EST - doubts began to arise once again. The SPX dragged everything lower in several minutes. Volatility intra-day spiked and created further uncertainty. 4164 was the Key Pivot for the ES - the front run 4162. During Globex, it crushed this level by 21 Handles. NQ Pivoted over the Ghost Level @ 13013 during Globex. Tesla crossed the $300 Level with New POs for 2022 $333 to $425 issued by Investment Banks. NVDA had issued enough forward warnings to be mildly impacted after issuing its EPS / Guidance. Debt Forgiveness in an Election Cycle is purely Political theatre. Powell is due to provide clarity on his position through September tomorrow beginning at 10 AM EST during a day of very heavy Macro Data. Fundamentally - it will be an extraordinary day for trading, so best of trading in advance. ___________________________________________________________________________________________ Of Concern: 2YY - 2 YEar Yield Futures are approaching 3.5% - for now and again this is the power of Now - The Effective Federal Funds Rate is 2.53%. The 2 Year is getting close to pricing in a 100 Basis point Hike. DX/DXY remain in a structurally sound uptrend, pullbacks are quite normal. Until the EU issues its next rate decision on September 15th - the DX is free to roam about. It is important to acknowledge the prior Highs were bested... this is important as it implies the 112s will be arriving in the near future. Although the 10 Year is being permitted to lift in assisting the Yield Curve's reduced inversion, it's frankly not a material concern as Yields continue to rise across the Curve. FX Traders took the 6E (Euro) downtown below Par due to Economic conditions and not Rate Parities. The NatGas to Crude correlations are disturbing - $410 - yesterday the Media upped it from $520 to $1000. ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Patience into Powell will be the best Trade imho. Good Luck, the Bigger setup is 25 hours away ;)
AMEX:SPY
by HK_L61
5
ES - 15 Minute / Micro RangeHousing continues to implode along with China's recent Urban Outfitters. 8:30 am Building permits (SAAR) July 1.63 million 1.70 million 8:30 am Housing starts (SAAR) July 1.52 million 1.56 million Interesting China avoided its Ecuminiopolis Economy... it's worse, of course. The Cerveza Sickness compounds across all regions. The Hot Topic is China leaving behind "Zero Bat Soup"... Unlikely, why abandoned control... yeah, naw, the CCP will never do that. ___________________________________________________________________ Hedge Funds have decided the Doom Loop is about to re-engage - placing very heavy wagers on a serious move lower. Currently, Micro Support for the ES is @ 4267.75. For NQ - 13562.25 ___________________________________________________________________ I am watching 4 instruments closely. 1. 2YY - 2 Year Futures 3.255 2. Crude Oil Range 77 - 95 (OXY Carbon Capture Squidview interesting, heavy bets there.) 3. DX - 107+ is going to be a large issue for the Bulls. 4. Cash VIX Wednesday after FOMC playbook full of Toxic Vapors. ___________________________________________________________________ Apple / Tesla / Microsoft / Amazon / NVidia and assorted Fang Frauds continue to grind the Sellers - asymptomatic ALGO Driven eat sh_t Sellers grinder. It remains a DIp Buyers Market, for now... let the Degens burn themselves out, it is not time just yet, we're getting there, but the horny little devils need another spunk junk run. ___________________________________________________________________ 4303 is the important close, the Bulls need this, without it... it's winding back down for a piece. Patience is always the play, especially during Summer. Time is winding down for TIME, August 22nd to September will tell us a great deal. Fiscal Spending has been the latest Taxpayer Grift, Timme fo' Stimmy simply received a bigger bill. Delusions abound.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by HK_L61
2
Dollar - DailyMuch to the chagrin of the GoldBugs, Uncle Buck remains a hoarder's paradise. Ranging between 1800 and 1888 the Bugs are ready for Dollar collapse. Looks bullish huh? Nah, Silver is leading lower, a demonetized doorstop which should see the teens again. Pre-Teen disaster in a panic yard relic move. $12 Door Stops. We are not. Gold is flat @ Mid-Year. Markets - Worst in 50 years, although July open has been a very Bullish Day for 2 decades. You exicted> We're non-plussed. GDP @ MINUS 1%. Uber Bullish. Not Uber. Not Bullish. Commods wrecked, NG Chasers are now down $4.20 from the Highs. Squirty chase, more solid Dump. Happy Flag Day @ Half Mast. Energy coming down quickly, back to BARE Market with the 96/92/85 range open. ROCs are extreme. 1987 style crash setup again. Uncle Buck remains the cleanest stinky diaper for now. Bonds tracking the 10/GSC/COMMODs while the Inversion matters as FREDDY bangs the Gong. Get it on. Uncle Buck is Wine Tasting - Sideways. XEU/6E should break the 103s... sending it to PAR and below.
TVC:DXY
by HK_L61
Dollar index daily : technical say it can see fibo 61% 100.00 technical say if big news not come , DXY must see 100.00 area if big news comes and DXY break 103.00 can go upper to 111.00 above green arrow we can pick buy ( wait pinbar comes on 1hour or 4hour or daily chart ,then buy with SL in pinbar low) good luck , DONT USE LEVRAGE ABOVE 1-10 , GO AND REDUCE YOUR LEVRAGE , HIGH LEVRAGE =BIG SIZE = FAST,EASY MARGINCALL,LOSS LEVRAGE IS POISON ,TOXIC , pro fund,bank trader always use 1-1 levrage
TVC:DXYShort
by ramin_trader2006
1
Dollar - DX DXY DOLLAR WEF Summit in DAVOS Began today, May 22, 2022. World Economic Forum members are face to face \as opposed to Virtual. Topics include Ukraine, Energy, Nato, and Climate. Government Policies will be shaped this weekend for the next 18 months. Volatility & Stability will be addressed with strategy sessions will be addressed in breakout groups to present a composite solution. This meeting has been postponed as it is usually held in January. Acceleration of Policies and Agenda are to be anticipated. The result will have broad-reaching Market implications.
ICEUS:DX1!
by HK_L61
2
DX DXY USD - Dollar 2 HourAfter reaching parity with the Swiss Franc Facta, the DXY peaked ST over 1.05. Our TOSS level was 104.55, it has been met Short Term on a Throw Over. It's nowhere near done moving higher, but for now, will range to digest a large move into the Safety Trade It did peak while sentiment was reaching extremes unseen. Again we do not expect Extreme Fear readings to give up much more than a persistent Fear Reading. Only Direct Subsidies to Consumers and FMonetary/Fiscal Pivots will resolve the embedded Senticators. ____________________________________________________________________ My long-standing FX Accident Thesis is well underway and will continue into October of 2023. A new Low at the close of the session sends the DX lower, a potential distribution is setting up nicely Shorter Term. We'll need to see if this ends up with a larger distribution. It well may be turning slightly on this pattern. Observing the reaction on Gold will be telling, it did hit my PO @ 1798.90 dipping in ever so slightly. Gold is reaching a DOM demand level. The COT remains in a SELL for Large Participants. Is a surprise in store, there appears to be one waiting in the shadows.
ICEUS:DX1!
by HK_L61
1
Gold - Dream of the Blue TurtlesAgainst the Monetary Base Expansion, Gold's implied Price in Fiat Credit should now be trading at slightly over $18,111. Outperformance? Clearly not, Gold has been demonetized by 95.56%. It is simply being held up in check against the FED's unwillingness to raise rates beyond an implied target which is clearly off the mark. Gold made an interim high @ 2078 and then declined $228 or 11%. The 199 EMA will need to hold on the Daily, the consolidation range is going to extend for some time. Seasonality is unsupportive until July. While the DX pulled back, the ratio has room to run lower for now. Commodities, on the whole, are beginning to show signs of immense stress in the Monthly charts with over-extended readings. Headwinds are beginning to mount for the everything bubbles - a bounce is to be expected. _______________________________________________________________ The 65 EMA is the Pivot for Gold, it must hold or the potential for a steep decline will continue to persist to 1675. COT is not at all supportive for a continuation the Gold Bugs are looking forward too. Silver remains unsupportive as it leads in True Bull Markets. Balance sheet expansion - the next Gold move Higher.
COMEX:GC1!
by HK_L61
DOW / NASDAQBear Market signals persist. When the DOW begins to outperform on the downside, we have a clear indication of a lengthy BEAR Market. It's just beginning. Counter Trends are a normal course in prolonged Trends. The ONLY real reversal... QE: Global Central Banks began withdrawing Liquidity via RRP's since July of 2021. The contraction made a controlled contraction below 0 into a negative range well below the Peak Monthly $1.5T down to $300B and on down to 0 in January, going - $250B during the 3rd week of January - they have maintained the drain since this time... it is remained between -$180 to -$255B to the present. Lows into October 2023 imho.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by HK_L61
NQ CorrolariesThe Nasdaq 100 is closely correlating to a number of Instruments - LQD UUP (DX< DXY) and TLT. JNK to a lesser degree as well. TLT has served to be the better of these corollaries. ____________________________________________________________________________________ I am waiting for a capitulation even in TLT with 10-year yields reaching 3%+ to 3.265 as the potential High. This would serve to drive the 20 Year ETF to a flush down low while providing a similar washout for NQ. It would need to happen this week, perhaps earlier than later. TECH is the weaker component relative to the ES and YM, the RTY is trading on its own and leading the drive lower - although it may be consolidating in this tight range, a breakdown would imply 16x' below 1911. This would be very bearish and reduce the probability the Indices have put in a Sustained Low.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by HK_L61