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dxy 12-17 updatemorning, quick little updated count on dxy. we're at a make or break point in the markets right now, and a decision has to be made within the next few days. --- ✅if dxy succesfully rejects this 10 year trendline, then we will see some big moves to the upside in our markets for a few months to come. 🛑if it breaks above the trendline, well then it's gg for the markets. 👇 ---- i originally was targeting $98 way back in March, but i doubt it's going to get there as of today. 👇 ---- let's get it.
TVC:DXYShort
by Eloquent
2
DX / DXY / US DOLLARMemories are Short. Trading FX when the DX was over 120 was an Indicator for me to Purchase Physical Gold and Silver. Debasement and "Traditional" correlations would hold with respect to overall Credit up until 2008, thereafter... the Blow off to the Futures Price then was 1913$. Gold had begun to lose its "Store of Value" Function well ahead of the Peak in Prices which lasted for one Decade. _______________________________________________ The Dollar remains the Debt Instrument Du Jour for Debts Public and Private. The Dollar lost a number of years later when Roosevelt decreed owning more than 5 Ounces in any Household was illegal. Redemption was ordered and Gold was remonetized from $20.70 to $35, a significant devaluation for the Dollar. ________________________________________________ This is no longer possible, neither is the remonetization of GOLD. To be clear, this is not to suggest Gold will not gain in Price, it indeed will, but its Value will be for Tier 1 International Trade sanctioned by the BIS @ SDR Divisors. The Public... will face confiscation of the Yellow Metal. It has throughout recorded History. It will again. _________________________________________________ While the statistical relationship between returns on US stock markets and changes in the value of the Dollar has historically ranged between .93 and .97 FX fluctuations indicate a much higher correlation between the volatility of returns on US Equity Prices and the volatility of Dollar exchange Rates. Historically - a 1% increase in Equity Complex VX correlates to 0.2% increase in the volatility of the Dollar - for Decades. This is no longer the Case as the Dollar remains the Currency of Senior in a Late-Stage Credit Cycle. Volatility, however, is Highly Correlated with OVERALL Liquidity. In 2008 the DX rose from 84 to 97 as the S&P lost 47% of its Price Level. The FED needs a Strong Dollar - to is a precursor for what they have in store... __________________________________________________ Creating Electronic "Currency" and installing a New Monetary (Credit as Money has Died, the "Moneyness" of it) - require Instability & Disorder. it is that simple. Order from Choas - the Fabians. ___________________________________________________ How does "Chaos" unfold? Today - it can occur in less than one second with an inter-connected Global Financial System which is crumbling in every way.
TVC:DXY
by HK_L61
DX / DX1 - Friday's Dollar "Less Transitory"The Taper of Bond Purchases begins @ $15 Billion, it will be the shortest "Taper" in History. Over and done before the announced Timeline of 7/8 Months. They'll either slow it dramatically or reverse course Mid-Point due to - you guessed it... "Policy Error" Not that it amounts to a drop in the Bucket given O/N Repos are approaching $2 Trillion, recently cresting $1.8 Trillion with no signs of abatement. Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen announced Friday - "Inflation will be with us throughout 2022." ____________________ The Global Supply Chain "Crisis" - yes it is now a "Crisis" continues to create issues for People around the Globe. Rolling downhill, the wreckage is Far and Wide. Elevated Inflation Data sent the Dollar in a rather large vertical - +0.8475% - a shove higher, on a Friday no less. The 10Year Note Futures (ZN) are performing the squatty potty routine, attempting to hold on to 130. A feat that has been ongoing for weeks on end. To some, this is "Bullish." Dunno seems to be Selling it has worked here from the 134s, some Traders appear to enjoy arguing with success. Personal Income declined 1% M/M - Spending increased 0.6% - PCE Core @ 30 Year Highs ____________________ The Dollar came off the 50SMA @ the Lower Trend Line of the rising Channel. Backtesting the Breakout... expected. Volatility next week is going to be "Frustrating" as Jerome would echo and has. Pesky Inflation, from the Pests @ the Federal Reserve. The DX is gaining strength and momentum... oops. It was all but ignored Friday. ____________________ The 007s are back, true to form, it's to the Moon again. Insistent to lose their Capital to the scrouges of Inflation. Have it again Baggies, we'll take your Capital and thank you again. Our scorecard, there on the back nine... 8 under Par while the 007s gorged on Hot Dogs off the 10th Tee. Eventually, too many Manhattans & Dogs had the careening into the Pond on Hole 12. At 18, they were 22 over, but insisted the bet was 36 Holes... it wasn't - revisionism is the new truth. Keys were handed over to the pride of Aston Martin's... with all of "M's" goodies in tow. One drunken Bondie needed a ride to his Estate, didn't feel a thing when ejecting his seat in the parking lot, prey/predator/splat. BONDs will PRICE INFLATION again. It is dead ahead, TLT Filled its Gaps as we indicated on the FR of 139, time to begin hunting the 139s to 134s. ____________________ We see the DX Price Objective just shy of 98. Oh my... that is up there... what, pray tell would become of Yields? Higher, Higher, Higher with INTENSIFYING VOLATILITY. This is not an environment the Equity COmplex will escape unharmed. We suspect the actual harm will be greater than before. The Dollar has been monkeyed with for several weeks, FX - JPY / 6e, the uptrend for Uncle Buck appears ready to surge. Indicators for FX, Equity Market Volatility Event - Equities will be smoked again, and WHY the RUSH to A higher Fill. The Silly Phase is well underway. Retail Bulls remain in the UTL Camp, a bonfire of the Vanities. ____________________ We are patiently waiting, sticks are being stripped of bark, Marshmallows being plated, nearing time to begin the Roast.
ICEUS:DX1!
by HK_L61
4
DX - @ Bottom of RangeA predicted 3% fall in the US Dollar during 2021, was incorrect and met with a Global default denomination of +3.5%. The 7.5% swing and miss in Sum. In the world of currency values and major financial institution predictions - Missing the Mark by the largest Margin in predictive assumptions is no small feat. This never happens and yet it did happen. Fears of the recovery in China, Japan, Australia, and the UK in terms of manufacturing and durable goods corporate performance - failed to meet expectations. China began to restructure Trade. Japan turned inward continuing the largest build in Defense before World War 2. Australia went full mental with Covid restrictions, closing off its Economy. The UK further removed ties to the European Union with Bre-Exit advancing from February to June. Coffin Nails were abundant, their hammering continues.
ICEUS:DX1!
by HK_L61
2
DX - Dollars Expanding Range 8950 - 9750Inflation Trades, Transitory Trades, Cleanest Dirty Blouse Trades FX is setting up for a Primal Accident. It remains the largest Intra-Day Market as Liquidity begins to abate within the DX Complex. The 6 pairs remain in FLUX, heavily so waiting on the DX to make it's larger move. With so many Macro and Geopolitical influences hip sway within Foreign Exchange... it remains one enormous mess. The 6e is likely the most damaged, although it's held up well, the ECB continues to Provide Blunder after Policy Blunder. Negative Rates were the final call, we are simply waiting for the disaster there to unfold in the coming months. The ECB has provided more utterances as to the direction and goals of their Basket Case. Coppertone Goddess LeGarde's persistence in installing a Digital "Currency" (Not a Currency in any manner, form, way) within the Block has repeatedly been stymied... The intent is clear, the implementation has been difficult as The Great Experiment was doomed to fail day one. Monetary Unions which fail to aggregate Debts, Fail. Period, the end. We are simply waiting on the tempest to blow the teapots lid clean off. The GBP, London's Financial Center trembles at the thought of how this transition will impact the imbalances. The Soft Exit isn't quite working as planned. The UK left the European Union's sordid mess and left 27 countries - bringing to an end 47 years of British membership of the EU and prior institutions. It was a slow and arduous divorce, one that created immense volatility on the path of separation. The actual effects did not begin to manifest themselves until January 1, 2021 when the actual split began to take shape. Northern Ireland, per usual, received the short end of the stick. Nascent ties to the EU remained and with it, further anger, dismay and despair. Another version of the Potato Famine, brought to you by the Technocrats with a number of regulations on Food. Further restrictions on Travel, Residency and Third Party Trade... did not fare well. Riots resulted. These arsonists are always a day late, it adds to anger. The UK, in sum, fundamentally withdrew from the collection of Dunces to reposition it's Financial arrangements with China, albeit slowly, but they are large supporters of China's Bond Market. It's complicated, but obvious as to why the UK began to absolve themselves of these tenuous arrangements. Northern Ireland was "Backstopped", or double bond as we prefer with a 4 year screwing aligned with the idiocy of Plutocracy that is the EU. The AUZ, NZD and CANDO are simply along for the ride. Degenerate outposts of the UK's progressive Policies towards future arrangements. A colossal experiment gone wrong shining ever so brightly in the light of day. No shame, simply far more draconian with each passing day. JBG's are wholly owned in the Land of the setting Sun. The vast majority of NIK225 Equities are wholly owned by the same degenerate failures of JCB Policies for 3+ decades. Idiocy which has never functionally changed anything but served to worsen a sink hole. This leaves the Dollar, the abused stepchild of Bretton Woods. a Currency which has suffered one default when French Warships entered New York Harbor to retrieve the People's Gold. De Gaulle had enough and on collecting France's Tier one assets... Monetary decentralization led to France's attempt at decentralization and further attempts at Nationalism. Unfortunately, the winds of change were blowing in the opposite direction and... you know the rest. Uncle Buck's extraordinary privileges' were eroded over time. Money from nothing became the Rule of Monetary Law. It began with small footsteps, on the Journey of one thousand miles to today. How this all shakes out will be telling as the new monetary order is arriving... Currency Wars lead to Trade Wars which lead to Shooting Wars. This is the History of it, it is always the same. Digital Script requires a rearranging of the Deck Chairs, this will unfold in the most violent of fashion. Best to prepare for it, The liability side of the Balance Sheet cannot be serviced. It's best to eliminate them...
ICEUS:DX1!
by HK_L61
17
DX - Whom DO You TRUSTGlobally, our nation has appeared as a Fruit Basket for some time to G7/G20 Members. Afghanistan is simply a reminder. A war which has waged on since forever... Initially, we covertly funded Rebels against the Soviet incursions. I've been the Soviet War Museum in Volgograd. It's as depressing as it gets for Russians who fought their version of Nam. Stingers to Hinds... death littered the landscape. After Trillions of Dollars spent in this region, and hundreds of Billions in Weapons left behind... our Tax Dollars spent are clearly coming into question and it is a welcome discussion. Wasted. It's as though, Benghazi has re-appeared once again to re-arm the enemy or so it would appear. The Pullout, by most metrics was handled, poorly. Our former partners around the Globe are reluctant to respond any longer. They have watched for years... the United States devolve into a parasitic Kleptocracy and "they" want no part of it. The Deck Chairs began the collective re-arrangement some time ago. And now, here we are... on the cliff's edge. We are no longer "Trusted" to do the proper, correct and moral effort(s). This continues to unfold as the DX accident approaches. The Chart illustrates where the DX is heading shorter term, it's what follows that should be of concern,
ICEUS:DX1!
by HK_L61
MARGIN DEBT - An ST PeakThe Peak for Intermediate Margin Debt peaked in July. After 15 months of elevation... It has declined 4.48% as Fear and Uncertainty have taken ahold... this appeared in the most recent release in Consumer Confidence, which Collapsed. Although the Gross Notional is nowhere near the highs as a percentage of Total Assets Value, as we have repeatedly indicated, the Trend is clear. It serves as further Confirmation of the Distribution Patterns we have Indicated for 47 Days. Technical Metrics clearly illustrate this among Larger Daily Divergences present within the Equity Complex. While BR/VG continue to accumulate an Outsized VX Position, the "Investor, HODL, MEME, Retail Trader, Speculator and well oiled Degenerate Gambler" Class continue to twaddle with even fewer outright purchases.... Instead, levering up with Options as Margin Debt continues to head South. The perfect setup is nearing completion. The exits are too narrow to prevent 95% of the above Casino participants from being harmed. We attempt to promote Sanity with respect to Trading and although a great many find it offensive and "Abusive" - it is not. To bad choices there are extreme consequences. It is your Capital, your choice, your decision. HK seeks opportunity, nothing more... clinging to Coat Tails of those in Control. Following Obeying Profiting To Win, there must be a Loss. We are taking a large SELL Position, the largest since August of 2020. A minimum of an 11% decline is the Lower Target.
FRED:BOGZ1FL663067003QShort
by HK_L61
VIX - Trade Plan for VOL CRUSH ReversalBuy J U N K, chase green bars, chase false overthrows... Patience, Analysis, Temperament, Constitution of Trade Plan - Probability favors all. BTD chasers. We'll happily take the opposing trade and here it is: Volatility Crush Reversal VIX Curve - ON Gap Fills of VIX Cash/Spot & VX Curve we will have completed inverse ladders on the following Positions: VXX 5K - Objective 20K Position, Projected lows into Wednesday ~ 25.08 Trade Structured INV LDR @ 25.68, 25. 36, 25.12, 25.06. VX Curve: M2 - 0 Position / Objective 5K VX Curve M3 - O Position / Objective 5K VX Curve M4 - 0 Position / Objective 2.5K ______________________________________________________________ SMH/TECH Extension to Target & Top Tick 7-9 Large Cap Prop SOXS: 40K Position / Objective 60K NQ: 0 Position / Sell INV LDR to 15363 overthrow TSLA - 50 @ 720 Nov Puts / Objective 100 to 780 Hedge only on Gamma FM Only, Theta not an issue Shares 400 / Objective 1500 INV LDR to 780 AMC/GME - Digging in to kill the roll AMC - Position Objective 12.5K to 37.88 GME - Degenerates are eyeballing 300 GF, no fill until 2022 Collar at 195 Strike out through November. __________________________________________________ Financials ZB - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry ZN - 0 Position, TLT Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry TLT - 0 Position, Gap Fill ahead Wednesday Fed minutes for entry NQ BANK - Observing Bank as RTY ES will catch the head fake for entry. Financials will drive ES RTY YM Entries Hedges will be Large Micro CTs in Bracket, OCO form for high turn entry/exit - Hedge ONLY. Powell - Still Thinking about... *Clarida - Taper could begin later this year Quarles - See's Taper discussion coming into view *Brainard - Echoes Taper discussion for September *Waller - Reduction of Bond Purchases in October *Bowman - Policy Statement Support ahead, Hawkish THE BOG HAS TURNED HAWKISH. Events: ALL BOG Members voted for/supported: Individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1, 2021 $1 Trillion CBCD central bank digital currency Policy Objective Enforcement actions have been tailored to NY/NJ Banks, epicenter of US Finance
CBOE:VX1!Short
by HK_L61
3
DXY - When the Wind Blows, the unwashed Laundry wafts INNational Currencies in the European Union? Hmmm... Good Luck in the Short Run, the disarray will be compelling viewing. European officialdom is now reeling from THE outbreak of apostasy within its own ranks. Adios Angela and a subtle reminder of 2010: " It is an existential test and it must be overcome ... if the euro fails, then Europe fails,” she said 11 Years later and she has one foot out the door. Failure, it appears was THE option. The disintegration of the EU due to financial panic on international markets will spread contagion to the United States. America’s $30 trillion debt load from Obama to Biden, the burden has become rather large. The Largess is not to be easily contained. American banks will see trillions of dollars in losses due to credit exposure within Europe's Financial Edifice. Deutsche Bank AG readily comes to mind - the Zombie Bank eating the brains of it's Depositors is overdue. The very solvency of the entire American financial system will be tested without remorse, regret nor remediation in a timely fashion. What of Uncle Buck? It is safe to assume, yes safe - Inflows into the Dollar and US Assets would flow from Europe, Asia and about any piece Sovereign on our little blue ball in space and time. Will it, it will it result in the (and I hold immense disdain for this term) GREAT RESET. Stay Tuned intelligent observers, we maintain everyone loses a Hand.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by HK_L61