USDCAD Long-Term Wave AnalysisIn the long-term, the USDCAD pair shows a corrective sequence. During this year the pair eases 2.70%. In this post, we'll review what to expect from Loonie for the coming weeks.
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DX
DOLLAR INDEX Buy SignalPattern: 1D Rising Wedge.
Signal: Bullish as the price reached the Higher Low trend line as well as the 1D MA200.
Target 98.330 (the 1D Resistance and pattern top).
Dollar Index: Near a support. Buy opportunity.The Dollar Index has been trading inside a strong and fairly stable Channel Up pattern on the 1W chart. Its current technical action (RSI = 51.671, MACD = 0.800, Highs/Lows = 0.0000) indicates that the price is near a Higher Low and as seen on the chart (based on its extreme measurements) this should be around 95.45. We are taking this opportunity to go long, TP = 98.00.
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Gold vs Dollar: Harmonization achieved. Gold going below 1200.This cross-chart analysis studies the correlation of Gold spot (XAUUSD) with the Dollar Index (DXY) on a two year span.
We see that since Gold made the 1,366.47 High in January 2018, it declined more aggressively than the equivalent rise on DXY from its 88.25 Low (-15.15% against +9.90% respectively). The cycle's measurements are taken from Gold's 1,122.73 Low in December 2016 and DXY's 103.82 High respectively.
Since Gold made the 1,160.34 Low in August 2018 it has been rising along with DXY against their natural negative correlation (largely affected by the correction on the equity markets). From a technical standpoint this is an attempt to reach price harmonization with DXY around the 0.5000 Fibonacci retracement levels. We see that both are currently around the 8.70% from their respective High (Gold) and Low (DXY), so a technical balance between the two has been accomplished.
This may suggest that we will have from now on the traditional negative correlation between the two and since DXY is on a natural uptrend towards its 103.82 High, we should see Gold reversing soon below 1,200 again as the stock markets stabilize. This indicates that Gold is currently on a low Risk/Reward sell ratio.
Note that this study is based on long term historical regression analysis and is suitable for long term swing traders/ investors.
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USDCHF Interlocking pattern signals Dollar strength vs. Franc From failed moves come fast moves. USDCHF put in a H&S top (bearish reversal pattern) on the weekly chart. That breakdown failed, and has taken the form of an interlocking H&S. From Failed moves come fast moves, so I expect the velocity of this move to be higher than that of a breakout that didn't stem from a significant in duration failure pattern. FX:USDCHF
DXY-Dollar Nearing B completion (Short Entry Nearby)A minimum for the wave B is in place, though this count still looks for two minor iv,v moves to complete the structure...either way the wave C of 2 comes into play as the midterms approach, and should see a good downside move towards the end of year in an impulsive structured wave C of 2.
In the larger degree picture, that wave 2 will be the last 2 of any real size for some time as the count looks for wave iii of iii of (iii) of 3 much higher into 2020+ with 130 as a basic minimum target. On the monthly DX charts, there's a gap starting at 92.22 which if not closed would constitute an interesting breakaway point or continuation if you prefer to call it that. It's not essential it remains open, but just one more point to consider as the wave 3 up takes hold and not to prematurely exit a major move.
The real trend behind Gold.We have constructed a quick cross study of the 2 key factors that affect Gold's price currently: the equities and the Dollar Index. For this examination we picked the S&P (SPX) and US Dollar currency index (DXY) to compare with Gold's futures (GC1!).
We see that since the stock markets stabilized last May, Gold quickly picked up the pace suggested by the rising Dollar and reached a near 1,165 Low mid August and consolidated as the Dollar tested a support. However when the Gold price tried again to follow the Dollar's current Channel Up on 1D (MACD = 0.390, RSI = 54.242), it was discontinued by the strong decline on the stock markets (namely S&P for this study). Despite however the fact that S&P broke below its 0.786 Fibonacci level (2,640) since April's lows, Gold has only managed to test its own 0.382 (1,245) retracement level. This clearly shows the long term bearish bias on Gold, suggested by the long term rise on the Dollar. As soon as the stock markets stabilize again (can be another 3 month period, but with the end of year rally bias, should be shorter), then the Gold price should harmonize and follow its negative correlation with DXY lower.
Dollar Index (DXY). Last big wave up to complete the impulse.It looks like the new impulse up is underway as we broke above the 92.50 (wave 1 of wave 5 in wave C of wave (4)).
The target for the last wave 5 up is set at the 61.8% of waves 1-3 distance and is located at the 107.60 level.
It is below the upside of an uptrend and looks achievable.
The stars are aligning to welcome XRP.. Hello all, back at my weekly update and so far so good, all the movement that we were expecting as per the triangles and the resistance lines followed the script.. but now there has been a minor break of the triangle, could be a false break as I am expecting it to retrace back to the 0.45-0.46 level and then start its journey upwards.. A daily close above the 0.52 level would be a good entry point in my opinion as that is a key resistance that XRP has failed to break on several occasions. The other key resistance I feel is at the 0.73-0.75 levels.
In my view, after 7 months of agony that investors have faced this year - hoping, praying, waiting patiently for the storm to pass, some losing faith, some weathering the storm, some drowning.. suddenly the clouds have broken and the sun seems to be breaking through.. We are right at the SBI launch, the Nasdaq backed exchange is round the corner, Coinbase has got the green light to list tokens that may be deemed as securities, addition of other XRP fiat based exchanges etc etc.. logically there is no reason for XRP to go down except unless BTC crashes, but then considering the fundamentals of XRP and whats happening this month, this fall would be very short lived.. the only way I see XRP going is UP.. not expecting any spike but a slow and a very assured growth in the value of XRP in the coming months.
Sit tight, I think the ride has just begun..
My opinion is partially based on my chart above and partially on whats happening around in the news.. but please DYOR and trade as per what you think is right. Good luck !!
dollar index technical analysis #DXThe risk of falling prices due to the development of a ending diagonal pattern
DXY Wave 4 topThere's two competing counts that are viable, and whilst there's much to occur to eliminate one over the other, I'm siding with the wave 4 top and down in wave 5 to complete the larger pattern.
The alternate is reasonably cleanly marked in Blue.
Long-term speculation on U.S. Dollar indexBased on past 1M regressional analysis (neutral RSI = 49.761, ADX = 32.900, CCI = -23.1942, Highs/Lows = 0.000), mirror patterns usually occur on DX over long periods of time. Same recurring patterns are expected on the 1D time-frame, which is now bullish (even overbought on RSI = 77.665) looking for its first Resistance since its uptrend started (since March 27) at 94.100. A Rectangle is expected afterwards before a pull back to 91.010 in mid August to form the basis for the next bullish cycle into December 2018.
What a president man. Trump Crashed Us Dollar. Make Great Again.This 5 wave decline maybe finishing.
But be cautious of trump. He can make this decline lower :D
Beware of dolar bear trump. :D
Watch for reversal.
gOOD luck.
DX - Relabelled Count End of Wave 4The touch inside the previous degree wave i, required the count to change. Either it's proven that the bottom is already in and we're in wave iii of 1 of 3 higher already, Or, as this chart suggests, we're only now completing the larger degree wave 4 and starting wave 5 of C down into the final bottom.
The 93 and 95 levels are important ones to keep an eye on. This can all take the timing out into the June-July window rather than the May as previously focused on, though timing will work itself out as the structures complete themselves.
DXY Nearing Confirmation Point for Larger count.Price is yet to breakout of this latest congestion zone and allows for two competing counts.
The chart has the easiest description pictorially...with the WXY for the wave 4 of the major wave ii of 3/B bottom, Or, we already have the wave ii of 3/B bottom in place at the mid Feb low completion.
Both counts look for strong upside into 2019, just timing of kickoff...already or into summer.
DX upswing?If #dx #usindex can clear the mod schiff median it gets quite bullish - target the ABCD 1:1 confluence of regular fork median & mod schif UP
DXY Dollar - Another Last chance Short!I did have a very similar headline recently and whilst it was near the 4 high, this internal wave ii offers another potentially last one that covers both the micro and intermediate degree within the wave 5.
On the larger degree it's important to note this is wave 5 of wave ii of 3/C. Regardless of the 3 or C counts, they both suggest into 130+ in the next couple of years which should shake up the monetary world as we know it with all of the dollar denominated debt out there.
Dollar Index. Possible wave count. Don't be fooled DXY could be in the last wave of the corrective structure before another big drop.
Current position is wave 4 of c of C of (4).
Short term weakness shouldn't fool you and I expect wave 5 to come and lift the index higher at least to the 91.50
where wave c=a, after that we should be cautious as another big drop would come
It is quite useful to analyse alter-egos (mirror) eurusd/dxy as you can find clues in one instrument, which is not obvious in the other.
I supposed quitting eurusd (see related) as I found the clue in the dollar index.
DXY - Completing C leg of Triangle 4DXY is in the zone for a C wave completion of the larger wave 4 Triangle.
An Alternate count would have it as a Flat or developing expanded Flat. In either case wave 4's are designed to obfuscate and trivialize opinions...my suggestion is be flexible as this 4 should knock out the bulls and build bears by the time the wave 5 is complete in time for an important turn up. Not now when everyone is sure that inflation is the driver and all bullish.
