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DXY Sell this Oct-Nov dead-cat-bounce and target 97.000.Last time we looked into a such a long-term (multi-year) time-frame on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was 10 months ago (December 15 2023, see chart below) where we gave the most optimal buy entry at the time: We now take it to the 1M time-frame where the long-term trend gets more clear and the pattern as you can see is a Channel Up since the March 2008 bottom (U.S. Housing Crisis). The most recent Higher High was back in September 2022 and since then the index has been on a decline in an attempt to form the bottom on the Higher Lows trend-line of the Channel Up. As you can see, we are in the later stages of this (multi-year) Bearish Leg but last month (September) it hit its 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since January 2022 and held it. This is expected to delay the Lower Low for a while but most likely won't invalidate it as if it closes a 1M candle below it, we expect to test the bottom by Q2 2025. Both the Bearish and Bullish Phases seem to be consistent within this 16-year Channel Up, having a fair degree of symmetry. The Bearish Phases have previously come in the form of successive Channel Down patterns (dashed), so if this analogy continues to hold this time also, we should be half-way through the second currently. All those Channel Down patterns dropped to at least the 1.236 Fibonacci extension from the first pull-back they had. This consistency is remarkable. Such pattern suggests that after the current rebound is completed (technically it shouldn't exceed the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the price could decline to 96.000. Our Target is a bit higher at 97.000, which would make an ideal Higher Low on this 16-year old Channel Up. After that, the confirmation to buy (which naturally will tell us that the bottom is already in) would be a 1M MACD Bullish Cross below the 0.0 mark. As you see, this took place 5 times these 16 years, all of which have been excellent buy entries with the lowest risk possible. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
3
U.S. Dollar Index is near to fall. Soon..The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against basket of other six major currencies, extends its losses for the 5th consecutive week in a row, hovering below 102 points during the U.S. regular hours on Monday, August 19. Over the past week, Gold spot (XAUUSD) has topped $2500 per ounce psychological high also, minting new all the history peak, while Forex Eur/Usd (EURUSD) pair just has flashed a positive 2024 YTD return, jumping above 1.10 psychological degree. The US Dollar continues to weaken following dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, which have increased a new portion of expectations for an interest rate cut by the central bank in September. Furthermore, last week’s US economic data revealed that both the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) suggest that inflation is easing. Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly stressed on Sunday that the US central bank should adopt a gradual approach to lowering borrowing costs, according to the Financial Times. Daly countered economists' concerns that the US economy is facing a sharp slowdown that would warrant rapid interest rate cuts. Additionally, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee cautioned that central bank officials should be careful not to maintain a restrictive policy longer than necessary. Although it's uncertain whether the Fed will cut interest rates next month, failing to do so could negatively impact the labor market, according to CNBC. Additionally, the decline in the US yields contributes to downward pressure for the Greenback. 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 4.05% and 3.85%, respectively, at the time of writing. This week, all eyes will be on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech. In a bottom line, the major technical graph for the US Dollar Index (DXY) indicates on possible huge decline for the next upcoming 12 to 18 months. The secondary RSI(14) graph indicates also, the bearish sentiment prevails.
TVC:DXY
by PandorraResearch
DXY hit the 1W MA200 for the 1st time in 8 months! Will it hold?The U.S. Dollar index (DXY) following the Fed's -0.50% Rate Cut, hit on Wednesday its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 8 months (since the week of January 10 2024). This is obviously the strongest Support on a long-term basis and technically should attract the first wave of buying pressure. However, the multi-year pattern, being a Channel Up, suggests that given some more weeks it should break and go for a Higher Low (blue Arc). As you can see on this pattern, every time the 1W MA200 was tested during a Bearish Leg, it broke. The last two Bearish Legs initially made a dead-cat-bounce and then priced the Low just above the 1.236 Fibonacci extension. The 1W RSI in particular provides very useful insight on this, as on the first oversold (below 30.00) Low it makes the bounce and then on the second RSI low, which is a Higher Low i.e. a Bullish Divergence, the price bottoms and rebounds long-term. As a result, with the 1W RSI bouncing on the 30.00 oversold barrier, we expect the price to rebound for a few weeks and then resume the downtrend towards the 1.236 and the bottom of the multi-year Channel Up. Our Target is 97.000. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXY
by TradingShot
Dollar could be trapped within huge consolidationMarket corrections are tricky and in this post you can see why. Dollar index weekly chart shows signs of large sideways consolidation (aka flat correction, range) after a strong drop marked with the orange down arrow 1. This consolidation passed halfway as we can see all first moves are completed. The first major yellow counter-move is done; it will be connected with the last yellow upmove through two white and two red counter-moves. Why corrections are tricky? Because they last longer than many think, usually longer than the preceding move. Currently, first legs took the same time as the whole first orange leg down, therefore it will take almost same amount of time furthermore. After completion, the second orange leg down could resume to hit $93 (orange leg 1 = orange leg 2) or even lower to retest the valley of Y2021 at 89.6
TVC:DXY
by aibek
DXY Big Long Momentum Ahead ?!The Dollar Index (DX1!) has been in an uptrend since the spring-summer of 2008, when it reached its lowest point. Since October 2009 (after the first leg down of the uptrend), whenever the net positions of retailers in the CoT report turn negative (or approach zero) AND retailers reach an extreme low in the CoT index (either in the short-term OR long-term), a significant run-up typically follows. Please note that these are weekly charts. The only exception was in June 2020, when the price continued to decline until later that year in December, which ultimately led to a substantial 2-year uptrend. At the same time, the 5, 10, and 15-year seasonality indicators show that we are currently at the bottom, which is expected to last until the end of September, suggesting an uptrend. Additionally, there is a weekly demand zone ahead around 101.400 - 100.320. If enough participants join in, a significant run-up is expected. The fundamentals are in place; we just have to wait and see if the demand zone holds. BE AWARE, this is the Dollar Index, which means all other major currencies, especially EURUSD, will be affected if this scenario plays out.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by XardasX
1
DXY is starting a rebound to at least 106.000The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a 19-month Channel Up pattern and this week (as well as on August 05), it almost reached its bottom (Higher Lows trend-line). This is a Double Bottom formation so far, which is a bullish pattern, that was also formed on the 1D RSI. The last time the RSI completed this formation, we've had a bottom that gave way to a strong Bullish Leg. Most rallies/ declines within this pattern have been between a 4.00% to 5.00% range. As a result, we turn bullish on DXY now, targeting 106.00, which is just below a potential +4.00% rise and almost on the 0.5 Fibonacci level of the Channel Up. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingShot
3
USD index looks set to hold 102 (for now)US CPI data may not have been as soft as some would have liked, but it retains the view that the Fed will cut rates and achieve a soft landing. The US dollar index reversed earlier CPI-induced losses to close the day flat on Wednesday and form a small bullish pinbar. Its low almost perfectly respected trend support from the July 2023 low, and shows that demand resides above 102. I suspect the USD index might be in for a small bounce, which could see AUD/USD fall further beneath its 200-day MA (job data pending). Quite how much of a bounce I am not sure, but these levels do not look favourable for bears. Also note that a small bullish divergence ahs formed on the RSI (14), and RSI (2) is also oversold to suggest bullish mean reversion is due.
ICEUS:DX1!
by CityIndex
DXY Buy opportunity approaching at the bottom of this Channel.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the May 01 High, which is a technical Bearish Leg inside the long-term Channel Up structure. The price is already very close to the bottom of the Channel Down and with the previous Bearish Leg completing a -2.36% decline, we believe this is the right time to buy again on the short-term. The last mini-rally completed a +2.14% rise so, expecting a similar development, we will target 105.800 (top of the Channel Up on a +2.14% Bullish Leg). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingShot
DXY Channel Up bottom. Strong buy opportunity.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit both Targets that we set on our January 24 analysis (see chart below): Yet again, a new buy opportunity is emerging as the price not only hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support Zone but also the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up, which is essentially the Bullish Leg of the 1-year Channel Up. With the 1D MACD about to form a Bullish Cross, that will be the bullish confirmation we need to buy and target 108.000 (near the top of the dotted Channel Up and almost +4% from yesterday's Low, which is a standard rise % within the pattern). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingShot
DXY Uptrend entering its final phase.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) hit the first out of our two bullish targets (January 24, see chart below), and despite a minor divergence, remains well within our pattern: That is the 2nd Bullish Leg of the long-term Channel Up pattern. We are past a 1D Golden Cross with the short-term pull-back finding support on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The last 1D Golden Cross was on September 20 2023 and it gave one last rally before forming a Higher High just below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension and completing a +7.85% rise from the Low. Symmetry plays a key role on this pattern, so we will pursue our final 108.500 Target whih is exactly at +7.85% from the Higher Low and marginally below the 1.236 Fib. An additional indicator that can tell us when to sell could be the 1D MACD. If it hits the Resistance Zone and then forms a Bearish with the price in decline, then consider it an early sell signal. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingShot
DXY is turning bullish short term.The U.S. Dollar Index is coming off a three day rebound after the 1D RSI almost touched the oversold (30.000) level. Even though the 1D technical outlook is bearish (RSI = 35.930, MACD = -0.200, ADX = 51.582) this small reaction is most likely the start of a counter trend rebound like late June 2023, which reached the 0.5 Fibonacci level. Consequently we are taking a short term long, targeting a little over the 0.5 Fib (TP = 103.800). For the past 14 months, DXY has been basically consolidating. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYLong
by InvestingScope
1
DXY Should resume the long-term bullish trend.Last time we looked into the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) we gave a bullish signal on two targets (January 24, see chart below), one of whom is already hit: The long-term pattern is a 1-year Channel Up and currently the market is on the Bullish Leg to price the 3rd Higher Highs of the pattern. Target 2 (105.900) is on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous Higher High. This time we set an even higher target for the Channel Up peak, which last time came after a +7.85% from the bottom. Based on that we expect 108.500 by June. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingShot
1
DXY The uptrend is only halfway there. Still time to buy.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) gave us the most optimal buy entry last time we analyzed it (December 28 2023, see chart below), exactly at the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up: Our perspective hasn't changed, this is the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up but this consolidation is simply a standard technical re-accumulation within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is exactly what took place during the previous Bullish Leg around the 1D MA50 (August 03 - 10). Even the 1D RSI indicates that we are on a symmetric Bullish Leg. Our first Target remains the same (104.500), which is exactly on the 0.5 Channel Fibonacci and marginally below the horizontal 0.618 Fibonacci level. If after that the price pulls-back and re-tests the 1D MA200 and holds as in late August 2023 (i.e. close the 1D candle above it), we will buy again and target the 0.786 horizontal Fibonacci level at 15.900. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingShot
DXY: Long term rebound expected.The U.S. Dollar Index has closed the week on a flat 1W candle, the first such since October 2nd 2023 on a marginally bearish 1W technical outlook (RSI = 43.488, MACD = -0.450, ADX = 30.953). The 1W RSI has rebounded on the S1 Zone forming a HL trendline and this gives shape to a Channel Up. This RSI formation is much like the bottom's of 2021 and 2018 as you can see on the chart. As long as the dotted HL trendline holds, we are long, aiming at the dotter LH trendline (TP = 105.500). If the HL breaks, we will short aiming at the LL trendline (TP = 98.000). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:DXYLong
by InvestingScope
DXY at the bottom of the 1-year Channel Up.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has started trading within a Channel Up pattern of Higher Highs initially since the beginning of the year (2023). The price is at the moment almost on its bottom, which will be the 2nd Higher Low since July 14. Since the October 03 top after which has entered the corrective (bearish) leg, the index is within a very tight (hence aggressive) Channel Down that hasn't seen a retrace yet. As a result, the probability of a rebound becomes stronger on each candle, especially now that the Channel Up has bottomed. The price measurements are so far quite symmetrical as you can see. The previous Bearish Legs have been on -4.83% and -4.94% declines respectively, and so far the first phase of the current one has been -4.59%. Right now the 2nd phase is at 5.00%, which is within the tolerance levels. If it prices a bottom now, we will buy and target 104.500, which will be on the 0.5 Channel Fibonacci level and marginally below the 0.618 horizontal Fibonacci level (which is where the first consolidation took place on the previous Bullish Leg on August 16). If however the Channel Up breaks downwards, we will wait for a 2nd and final buy entry at 99.125, which will reresent a -4.96% decline from the recent Lower High. That buy will target 13.900. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingShot
Us Dollar Weakness - Will Price Drop To $100 Again?The US dollar experienced a notable 1.3% drop at the end of last week, following a 0.49% gap down on Thursday. In contrast, the S&P 500 gained 0.3% on Thursday and 2.49% over the week. Since September 2022, the dollar has been volatile, falling 13% from a high of $114, briefly dipping below $100, then recovering 7%, and falling again by 4.8%. This erratic behavior makes it hard to predict the dollar's future movements. The dollar's latest decline suggests it might retest the $100 level, a crucial support zone. If the dollar starts to rise, surpassing the October high of $107 will be critical, as it could signal a shift from the current downward trend to a potential upward trend. If you enjoyed this post, make sure to like, and follow for more quality content! If you have any questions or comments, comment below. We reply to every comment! See below for more information on our trading techniques. As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
ICEUS:DX1!
by Sublime_Trading
DXY Don't let the Fed mislead you. Long-term it's still bullish.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is taking punishment since the October high and this week in particular after the Fed Rate Decision. In times of price distortion by fundamentals, we always think it is useful to look into the longer term time-frames (1W and over) for technical patterns that withstand fundamental irregularities and filter out the news noise. In that sense, we present to you today the long-term (1W) outlook on DXY, which is trading within a Channel Up since the March 02 2009 High, which was effectively the bottom of the last major Bear Cycle, the U.S. Housing Crisis. Needless to say, such events are shape shifters for the markets and initiate dominant trends and patterns that are very difficult to break (at least without similar catalysts). This 14-year Channel Up is such a dominant pattern with 4 confirmed Higher Highs. The Sine Waves very accurately capture all of those Highs on their tops. After every such High, the DXY declines aggressively towards the Channel's bottom and after it forms it, it starts rising on Higher Lows, effectively forming a Channel Up (dotted lines). The current Channel Up is approaching its bottom and is technically the most optimal long-term buy opportunity. The previous two have hit at least the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level before declining again. That is now at 108.500 and this is our long-term target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:DXYLong
by TradingShot
6
DXY/USD ~ Bullish Reversal / Inverse H&S (1H)TVC:DXY chart mapping/analysis. Bullish inverse H&S identified on lower timeframe charts, pending breakout confirmation. Trading scenarios into EOY: Inverse H&S breakout = extrapolated move into 23.6% Fib / ~106 horizontal line (yellow dashed) / upper range of descending parallel channel (light blue) confluence zone. Breakout failure = re-test 50% Fib aka "Right Shoulder". Further bearish capitulation = re-test lower range of ascending parallel channel (white) / Golden Pocket confluence zone. Major macro economic news this week = higher probability of implied volatile swings in either direction.
TVC:DXY
by BlueHatInvestor