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Elliott Wave Forecast: Dollar Index ($DXY) Rally Should FailShort Term Elliott Wave View on Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) suggests that the rally from 4.14.2023 low is in progress as a zigzag structure. Up from 4.14.2023 low, wave ((a)) ended at 102.23 and pullback in wave ((b)) ended at 101.02. The 1 hour chart below shows the starting point of wave ((b)). Index is now extending higher in wave ((c)) with internal subdivision as a 5 waves impulse. Up from wave ((b)), wave i ended at 101.43 and wave ii pullback ended at 101.1. Wave iii ended at 101.63, wave iv ended at 101.124, and wave v higher ended at 101.77. This completed wave (i) in higher degree. From there the Index pullback in wave (ii) which ended at 101.04. The Index then extends higher in wave (iii) as an impulse. Up from wave (ii), wave i ended at 101.83 and pullback in wave ii ended at 101.21. Wave iii ended at 102.15, dips in wave iv ended at 101.97, and now the Index is looking to end wave v which should also complete wave (iii) in higher degree. Afterwards, Index should pullback in wave (iv) to correct cycle from 5.8.2023 low before it resumes higher again. Near term, as far as pivot at 101.02 low stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
TVC:DXY
by Elliottwave-Forecast
1
$DXY: New weekly signal spotted...The dollar index has flashed a buy signal in the daily and weekly timeframes here, I've bot some exposure to it via long calls in $UUP expiring by late September. The weekly Time@Mode trend signal forecast implies a substantial move lasting 6 weeks from here onwards. Downside risk is small, the signal suggests a 3.65 times reward to risk ratio, if the target is reached and the stop isn't, since the signal popped on Thursday this week. Trading FX signals like this adds a nice source of alpha to a stocks portfolio, I like to focus on the dollar index for simplicity's sake, but at times there's good opportunities in cross pairs as well, for those avid with macro analysis. Best of luck if buying the dollar here, expect a strong rally until the target is reached at least, with +60% odds. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
ICEUS:DX1!Long
by IvanLabrie
1
$DXY: Trend is up, hard to stop the advance...The Dollar offers a nice reward to risk entry as a continuation trade here. I'm long via FX pairs and a Dollar Index position. Eventually, it might take coordinated intervention to stop this advance, fundamentals are firmly in place for a continued trend in the Dollar against foreign currencies, given the limitations to affect the energy market and of monetary policy itself in the Euro area. Japan benefits from increased competitivity for their exports, and won't be able to stop the advance if they wished to do so on their own. Perhaps at some point we will get coordinated intervention similar to what transpired in 1985 with the Plaza Accord. The rally here in quarterly and yearly scale is potentially of huge scale, so I'll be ready to trade any continuation signal to the upside while the trend variables remain in place. Best of luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:DXYLong
by IvanLabrie
2
USDollar Set to Break Out Higher DXYThe US Dollar Index has been stuck in a rut. Since mid-May it has moved mainly sideways. Bouncing back and forth in consolidation, like it is bouncing off of the walls of a jail cell. The top of the consolidation is at the November high, a spot it just can’t seem to get over. But the chart below suggests there may be a jailbreak soon. There are several thing to watch. First that consolidation has been tightening. Each low has been a little bit higher than the last one. This is a sign of buyers overwhelming sellers. It also creates an ascending triangle. A break to the upside carries a target to 102. Momentum has held bullish, but reset off of the extreme levels of May. The RSI held at the mid line on the pullback and is now curling up. The MACD has also reset lower, nearly to zero, but remains positive. Finally the Bollinger Bands were pushed open Friday as the price drove up to resistance.
TVC:DXYLong
by rocktradr