Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has rejected off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support that line sup with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 107.49
1st Support: 105.44
1st Resistance: 108.67
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DXY
DXY. Attempt to change the trendHey traders and investors!
In a recent analysis of the AUDUSD currency pair (available in related posts), I mentioned a high probability of a reversal forming on the weekly timeframe. This conclusion was also supported by the situation on the daily timeframe. Currently, a similar situation is observed with the US Dollar Index.
This review illustrates the relationship between different timeframes, aiding in making better decisions in asset analysis and entry point identification.
1D Timeframe
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is in a downtrend on the daily timeframe after breaking down from a consolidation range. The boundaries of this range are marked by black lines on the chart. A key level protecting the breakout from the range is 106.957, which marks the beginning of the last seller's impulse.
At the start of this impulse, a seller's zone formed (red rectangle on the chart). At the end of the impulse, there was a buyer's bar with increased volume, indicating buyer interest at these price levels. The volume in this bar is concentrated in its upper part (blue line on the chart), suggesting potential seller interest.
Key Levels on 1D Timeframe:
Key resistance (start of the last seller's impulse): 106.957
50% of the last impulse: 106.435
Last impulse low: 105.913
Trading Recommendations:
Selling:
Look for selling patterns near resistance levels, especially around 106.957.
Buying:
Currently, there are no conditions for buying (bearish trend). Buyers need to consolidate above 106.957 to change market dynamics and create opportunities for buying patterns.
Now let's analyze a higher timeframe to understand potential downward targets and obstacles. In my opinion, the 11-day timeframe shows the situation best.
11D Timeframe
On the 11-day timeframe, the price is moving within a sideways range, with the upper boundary at 106.952 (close to the daily level of 106.957) and the lower boundary at 99.099.
The last realized vector in the range is a buyer's impulse 7-8. The key bar of this impulse (highest volume) is located in its middle (marked as KC on the chart).
The price broke above the upper boundary of the range during this impulse. However, the seller returned the price into the range, forming a seller's zone above the upper boundary (red rectangle on the chart). This seller's zone corresponds to the daily range.
All of this appears as manipulation (false breakout) of the upper boundary of the range. The current seller's vector is 8-9, with a potential target of 99.807 (99.099).
Obstacles for sellers include the key bar of the buyer's impulse, inside of which is the 50% retracement of the last impulse. I expect the first buyer reaction (long bar on the 11D timeframe) after the price declines to the range of 105.112 - 104.843.
Thus, the 11-day timeframe supports the conclusion on the daily timeframe about the advisability of searching for short positions. Similarly, one can analyze a smaller timeframe, for example, the hourly, to look for short entry patterns.
Key Levels on 11D Timeframe:
Upper boundary of the range: 106.952
50% of the last buyer's impulse: 104.843
First target for selling (PT Short): 99.807
Lower boundary of the range: 99.099
I wish you profitable trades!
DXY Falling Below $106 - Cue AltSeason in March!The biggest shock to everyone is going to be the price of CRYPTOCAP:BTC going DOWN while ALTS skyrocket 🚀
As I have discussed in my macro thesis, the TVC:DXY is FINALLY breaking down on the Weekly along with the 10Y.
RSI has topped and Price broke below the WMA9 & 20.
Just waiting on the WMA9 to break below the WMA20 for final confirmation.
Historically when this happens...
it’s ALTSEASON BABY!!! 🥳
After this happened in March 2017,
BTC and ALTS pumped together,
then BTC went down 33% while ALTS exploded higher over a 3 week period before BTC rallied alongside again.
DXY weekly Perspective 23.02.25DXY Analysis & Bias for This Week
My outlook for the Dollar Index (DXY) remains bearish, which aligns with my bias for bullish moves on pairs like GU, EU, and Gold. Since price has already broken structure to the downside, I anticipate a retracement to mitigate the newly formed 14-hour supply zone before continuing lower.
While price may react bullishly from the 3-hour or 2-hour demand zones I’ve marked, the overall momentum still favors the downside, as seen from the strength of recent bearish candlesticks.
Plan of Action:
📌 Once price reaches the 14-hour supply zone, I will wait for lower timeframe confirmations before taking action.
📌 I will also check for any corresponding demand zones on my other pairs to ensure alignment across the board.
DXY - 4H Bearish SignsTVC:DXY has shown an impressive rally from the 100 zone, forming three major bullish legs, each contributing approximately 4% gains. These bullish phases have now brought the index close to the critical 110 level.
However, in the third major leg, we observe the formation of three minor legs, signaling some hesitation as it nears the resistance zone. While many expect the index to break through 110 easily, I anticipate price swings around the 109-110 range, and even the possibility of a deeper pullback before resuming its upward trend.
With the NFP data release today, we might see increased volatility, offering opportunities for a potential DXY decline before any further rise. Stay alert for sharp market moves! 📉
USDJPY - 4H Short Opportunities Amid DowntrendFollowing the sharp fall in FX:USDJPY after PPI and CPI news, we expect further downside, potentially reaching the middle or bottom of the channel. 📉
Each push-up could be a short entry opportunity. Even a strong rise below 158 might be a dead cat bounce and a better short entry point. Stay cautious and strategic! 🔻
DXY at a Deciding PointThe DXY has a slight bounce from the fib 0.786 golden pocket, but also at a neutral level of 107.158. I have plotted a trend channel from the higher timeframe which is marked by the dotted line.
At this point, I would take a wait-and-see approach in the coming weeks until a clear direction takes place.
USDJPYHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on USDJPY?
The USDJPY pair has reached a support zone after its recent decline. We expect the price to complete a pullback to the broken level before continuing its downward movement toward the identified targets.
What’s your outlook on USDJPY? Do you expect more downside?
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
DXY Week of 23 Feb 25: BullishFollowing the previous post, 24 Feb 25 may be the start of the bullish rally for DXY.
Possible Wyckoff Re-accumulation pattern
Falling Wedge hints bullish reversal
Liquidity Zone established
Plan to Long DXY and target for recent high, and stop loss at recent low. About 2.45 Reward:Risk Ratio
EUR/USD Market Analysis – Bearish Reversal from Key ResistanceThe EUR/USD pair has formed a bearish Bat harmonic pattern , completing near the 0.886 Fibonacci retracement level. Price action has reacted strongly at this resistance, indicating a potential reversal. The first target (T1) is around 1.0394 , while the second target (T2) is near 1.0325 , aligning with key Fibonacci levels. If the resistance holds, a bearish move towards these targets is likely. However, a sustained break above the high may invalidate the bearish setup. Traders should monitor price action closely for confirmation.
EURUSDHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on EURUSD?
The EUR/USD pair is moving within an ascending channel and is currently testing the bottom of the channel. After some consolidation in this support zone, the price is expected to move toward the top of the channel.
What’s your outlook? Will EUR/USD move toward the channel’s top?
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): One More Bearish Movement
Dollar Index keeps updating the lows on a daily.
With a strong bearish movement, the price violated a key horizontal support yesterday.
Probabilities are high that the market will continue falling.
Next support - 106.15
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DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) – NEXT WEEK’S TRADE PERSPECTIVEDOLLAR INDEX (DXY) – NEXT WEEK’S TRADE PERSPECTIVE
Heading into next week, keep an eye on the upper zone around 108 and the 106 area. The DXY could make a short-term bounce toward 108, then continue its primary downtrend, aiming for 106.
Looking further down, starting around March, DXY is likely to trade below the 103 handle, indicating extended downside pressure.
AUD/USD Triangle Breakout (19.2.25)The AUD/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Triangle Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 0.6391
2nd Resistance – 0.6404
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Gold NEW ATH to $2,954?! (1H UPDATE)Gold on the 4H TF is within its final Wave 5 bullish move, there’s no arguing with that. The only thing to debate is how high can Wave 5 push up before reversing?
While it’s possible that Wave 5 has now peaked at $2,942 & ready for a major correction, on the 1H TF I see a small possibly of it creating a new ATH toward $2,954. HIGH RISK TRADE.
Confluences👇🏻
⭕️Distribution Schematic Taking Place Between Wave 3 High, Wave 4 Low & Wave 5 High.
⭕️Wave E Rejected From Psychological Number Of $2,940 (LQ Trap).
⭕️No Strong Sell Off Yet To Indicate A Reversal Has Started.
DXY – Key Level Broken, More Downside Ahead?Hello Folks , Long time no see .
The US Dollar Index (DXY) just broke below 106.5, and things are getting interesting. The trend has been weakening, and price is now sitting at a crucial zone.
📌 Here’s what I’m watching:
107.66 is the big resistance. If price can reclaim it, bulls might have a chance.
105.48 & 104.46 are the next major support levels.
👀 My Take:
If we stay below 106.5, I expect more downside towards 105.4 and maybe 103.3. If price bounces and reclaims 107, I’ll reconsider.
What’s your view? More downside or a bounce coming? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀🔥
🚨 Disclaimer:
Just sharing ideas here—this isn’t a trade advice . Everyone sees the market differently, and the goal is to improve our analysis, not tell anyone what to do. At the end of the day, your trades are your call, your responsibility. Trade smart! 🚀📊