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DXY

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY weekly time frame analysisAs of the weekly time TVC:DXY frame, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 106.59, which places it in an important Fibonacci retracement zone. Here’s an analysis of its current position: Current Position on the Weekly Chart (DXY at 106.59): 1. Fibonacci Levels: 50% Fibonacci Retracement: The current level at 106.59 is near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous downtrend from 114.00 (2022 high) to 100.00 (2023 low). This retracement level is crucial as it often serves as a turning point. The 50% level is typically seen as a major resistance or support level. 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement: The next key level above 106.59 is 107.50, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. If DXY breaks through 107.50, it could signal a continuation toward the next key resistance near 108.50. 2. Support Levels: If DXY fails to hold 106.00–106.50, the next potential support levels would be at 104.50, which corresponds to the 38.2% retracement of the broader move. Outlook: Bullish Scenario: If DXY stays above 106.50 and moves toward 107.50 or breaks it, this would suggest a continuation of the upward trend, potentially targeting 108.50 or higher. Bearish Scenario: A drop below 106.00 could signal weakness, with the next significant support at 104.50. The DXY’s behavior around these Fibonacci levels will likely be key in determining the next short- to medium-term direction for the dollar. Watching the upcoming U.S. economic data releases will be essential for confirming these technical signals.
TVC:DXY
by TRADE_CENTER_1
DXY Will Go Down From Resistance! Short! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bearish Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bearish The market is on a crucial zone of supply 106.563. The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 105.718 level. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYShort
by SignalProvider
1
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading around 106.70. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading around 106.70. On the 4-hour chart, DXY is testing a resistance TVC:DXY zone near 107.00–107.13, which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a prior move. If this level is breached, the next target could be 107.50 or higher, signaling a continuation of the uptrend. However, failure to break above this resistance could result in a pullback, with support seen at 106.10, followed by the 105.63–105.78 range. In summary, DXY is at a critical juncture. A breakout above its resistance would likely fuel further bullish momentum, while a rejection may see it revert to lower support levels.
TVC:DXYShort
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Gold Analysis Today DECEMBER 12, 2024 Strong Growth or Collapse?SPDR Gold Trust Gold Fund bought 2.59 tons of gold yesterday, December 11 Important resistance: 2733 - 2740 - 2750 Important support level: 2680 - 2675 - 2700 XAUUSD OANDA:XAUUSD trading strategy around price area: BUY XAUUSD around 2700-2701 Stoploss: 2695 Take Profit 1 : 2710 Take Profit 2: 2720 Take Profit 3: 2730 “If there is a break through the 2728 area during the day, we should watch to sell around the 2749-2750 area in a long-term channel.” SELL XAUUSD around 2749-2750 Stoploss: 2756 Take Profit 1 : 2745 Take Profit 2: 2740 Take Profit 3: 2733 Note: Always install Stoploss in all cases to be safe!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
DXY - 4H Dollar Index more FallTechnical Perspective: TVC:DXY experienced two significant bullish legs in October and November on the daily time frame. However, the index started to fall sharply at the end of November, and this bearish momentum remains strong. On the 4H chart, DXY reached a key resistance zone and faced a significant rejection with notable bearish momentum, signaling the continuation of the downtrend. The current movement indicates a high likelihood of further declines, potentially to the bottom of the trading range. Many USD pairs are at critical support or resistance levels, and expected reactions from these zones could amplify downward pressure on the DXY, making it increasingly vulnerable to a substantial fall. Fundamental Perspective: In December 2024, the bearish sentiment surrounding the DXY is driven by key fundamental factors. The Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement another 25 basis point interest rate cut during its December 18 meeting, following earlier cuts in September and November. This dovish policy reflects the Fed’s commitment to supporting economic growth amidst a slightly cooling labor market and growing global uncertainties. Adding to the pressure, inflation data showed a 2.7% year-over-year increase in November, a slight uptick from 2.6% in October. Despite this, the Fed remains focused on easing monetary conditions to mitigate recession risks. Additionally, the recent U.S. presidential election has raised prospects of fiscal policy changes, including proposed tax cuts and potential tariff adjustments, which contribute to market uncertainty and weigh on the dollar. These fundamental shifts align with the bearish technical setup, suggesting that the DXY’s downtrend is likely to persist in the near term. Keep an eye on upcoming Fed announcements and inflation data for further confirmation of this trajectory.
TVC:DXYShort
by Sober_Trading
GOLD → Retest 2720. CPI ahead, what to expect?FX:XAUUSD is coming out of a long consolidation and testing 2688. Bulls are trying to keep the defense above this zone, but the risks are increased by the publication of CPI... Gold was boosted by the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and renewed buying of gold reserves by China. Amid looming tariffs announced by Trump and weakening labor market conditions, the US inflation report will be crucial in determining the Fed's easing trajectory in the coming months. Further upside for gold prices hinges on the release of US CPI data, which is likely to set the pace for US Fed action early next year. Technically, gold is heading towards broad range resistance as well as the 2720 liquidity zone. The chances of reaching the target are high, but a sharp approach and high news volatility could trigger a false breakout. Resistance levels: 2705, 2720 Support levels: 2688, 2675, 2658 The CPI data may trigger both a rise in the dollar and a deep correction, depending on the interpretation of the current US economy. Gold may react accordingly, but it all depends on the actual data. Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSD
by RLinda
24
Gold currently trading near its resistance level Gold currently trading near its resistance level could lead to two possible outcomes: 1. Breakout Above Resistance: If gold's price moves above its current resistance level with strong momentum, it signals a bullish trend. Traders would then watch for the next resistance zone, which may act as the next upward target. 2. Rejection at Resistance: If the price fails to surpass resistance, it often results in a downward movement. The spot price (or the nearest support level) becomes the focus for potential stabilization or reversal. Current Context Spot Price: Gold is currently at $2,702 per ounce, a level influenced by both technical and fundamental factors like market sentiment and economic data. Level: Likely around $2,736 CAPITALCOM:GOLD , with higher levels at $2,804 if a breakout occurs. Support Levels: If a downturn occurs, support may exist near $2,607 or $2,532, depending on market pressures. Trading Strategy Confirm breakouts with high volume or sustained movement above resistance before assuming an upward trend.
CAPITALCOM:GOLD
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Brent - Will stability return to the region?!Brent oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H time frame and is moving in its downward channel. We will look for oil buying positions on the midline of the ascending channel. In case of a valid failure of this channel, we can witness the continuation of the upward trend. On the other hand, within the supply zone, we can make short-term sales with appropriate risk reward. China has announced plans to implement a “relatively accommodative” monetary policy. This announcement, accompanied by promises of support for more “active” fiscal policies, signals Beijing’s intention to further ease economic conditions. The news drew significant market attention, resulting in a 6% rise in the value of Chinese investment funds on U.S. stock exchanges. Similarly, the Australian dollar gained notable strength in currency markets, and commodity prices saw an uptick. Meanwhile, according to Bloomberg sources, Chinese drone manufacturers have recently imposed restrictions on exporting key components used in drone production to the United States and Europe. This move strongly suggests that Beijing is unwilling to exert pressure on Moscow to end the war. On another front, Donald Trump, the U.S. President-elect, announced after meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the weekend that he is making serious efforts to end the war.Writing on his social media platform, Truth Social, Trump stated, “A ceasefire must be declared immediately, and negotiations must begin.” He added, “I know the President of Russia well. Now is the time for him to act. China can help. The world is watching!” Simultaneously, the Biden administration, with Trump’s backing, is working to secure a ceasefire agreement and the release of hostages in Gaza before Trump’s inauguration on January 20. The negotiations have resumed swiftly and discreetly, with close coordination between Biden’s and Trump’s teams. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s newly appointed envoy to the Middle East, is playing a pivotal role in these talks. Trump has demanded the release of hostages before his inauguration, warning that otherwise, “hell will break loose in the Middle East.” Biden administration officials have welcomed Trump’s support and are striving to ensure a smooth transition between the two administrations. Adam Boehler has been appointed as the lead official for hostage affairs and is expected to play an active role in Gaza negotiations. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs anticipates that OPEC+ production will remain data-dependent. The bank expects OPEC+ to increase production for four consecutive months starting in July, coinciding with strong summer demand. Additionally, Goldman Sachs predicts that India’s oil demand will grow by 0.3 million barrels per day next year. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), U.S. crude oil production is forecast to reach 13.24 million barrels per day this year and 13.52 million barrels per day next year. The EIA has also revised its 2024 price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil downward, projecting $76.51 per barrel for Brent and $80.49 per barrel for WTI. These figures are lower than last month’s forecasts of $77 and $80.95 per barrel, respectively. U.S. crude oil inventories rose by 0.499 million barrels in the week ending December 6, 2024, following a 1.232 million barrel increase the previous week. According to the API Weekly Statistical Bulletin, this marks the fifth increase in eight weeks, defying market expectations of a 1.3 million barrel draw.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
US CPI, WHERE WILL THE DOLLAR GO NEXTTrading Plan BASELINE C urrent Short-Term Sentiment Bias : - The market is currently focused on the upcoming US inflation report and its implications for Federal Reserve policy. - There is an 86% probability priced in for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Fed later this month⁵. - The dollar index is steady around 106.3, reflecting cautious sentiment ahead of the inflation data. SURPRISE Outcome That Will Surprise the Markets Based on the Baseline: - Lower-than-expected inflation data : This would likely lead to USD selling as markets fully price in the anticipated rate cut. A good trade in this scenario would be GBP/USD longs, leveraging the pound's net long positions and the USD's net short positions. - Higher-than-expected inflation data : This would likely result in USD strength as investors adjust their rate cut expectations. A good trade in this scenario would be EUR/USD sells, based on stronger USD institutional positioning compared to the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE Does This Outcome Change the Larger Macro-Fundamental Bias? - Lower-than-expected inflation : Reinforces the expectation of continued easing by the Fed, aligning with the current macro-fundamental bias of a dovish Fed aiming to support economic growth and achieve its 2% inflation target. - Higher-than-expected inflation : Could shift the macro-fundamental bias towards a more cautious Fed, potentially delaying further rate cuts and maintaining a tighter monetary policy stance to combat persistent inflation⁷⁸. Notes - Macro-fundamental bias: The market expects the Fed to continue easing monetary policy to support economic growth and achieve its inflation target. This expectation is based on the Fed's dual mandate and recent economic indicators. - Short-term sentiment bias: The market is currently focused on the upcoming US inflation report and its potential impact on Fed policy, as well as interest rate decision.
TVC:DXY
by Midas_Macro
2
DXY 1W Forecast until the end of MAY 2025Up-trend will resume and last until the end of February 2025 topping no higher than 114. Current bottom is in at 105.9 Hence, it shouldn't fall below. After February a consolidation period of 1,5 months will trap price action between the bottom of 122.16 and upper level of 114.9 The spring squeezed during consolidation will provide enough energy for further upwards movement starting in the end of April 2025. This will ignite a chain of devaluation of national currencies followed by epidemic inflation across the globe. This will finish/cool-down at DXY reaching the mark of 148. New reality after May 2025?
INDEX:DXY
by discarding
GOLD → Breaking through channel resistance. Growth attemptGOLD is coming out of the channel. Bulls are trying to take the situation into their own hands and keep the defense above 2665. The metal has a chance for local return and growth to 2690 - 2720. Growing geopolitical tension in the Middle East (Syrian government collapse) compensates local growth of the dollar, which is generally favorable for the metal. But, risks of dollar growth remain on the background of inflation growth in the U.S., which in general can strengthen the hawkish position of the Fed policy makers on the interest rate. At the moment all attention is focused on CPI / PPI. Profit-taking is possible due to high risks. Gold is coming out of the local channel, but is still trapped inside the global channel. Price may test the zone of interest before important economic data. Support levels: 2660, 2655, 2636 Resistance levels: 2673, 2688, 2721 The breakout took place and the metal is trying to go up. The target is 2688. But we should be careful, because geopolitical tensions, upcoming economic data may cause corrections and profit taking Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
10